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Old 19-05-2005, 21:12   #1
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Hurricane Already??

Little Early isn't it?


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 191735
TCMEP1
HURRICANE ADRIAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005
1800Z THU MAY 19 2005

AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
HAVE UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD TO THE EL
SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR GUATEMALA FROM
SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 90.6W AT 19/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
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Old 19-05-2005, 22:40   #2
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A little early?? I would say a little generouse calling it a Hurricane ain't it. That's just a good stiff Nor'wester here. 64knts isn't considered Hurricane is it??
But also saying early, we just had a low come down from the tropics. I am not sure if we should call it late or early. Totally out of season what ever you consider it. It centred itself mid tasman and it's tail swept across the country bringing major flooding to one area. One small town was just about wiped off the map due to some major slips. Winds were not high which was strange due to it's Low pressure, but we aren't complaining. The air temp was very warm and more likend to a summer storm.
Good thing those Bumfuzzle pair got going when they did. They would have worn a right ole plastering out in the middle.
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Old 20-05-2005, 11:45   #3
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I agree that it seems a little early for a hurricane.
The official hurricane season for the tropical Eastern North Pacific (east of 140 Deg. W) runs from 15 May through 30 November, though the peak activity typically occurs during July-August-September.

The Atlantic ‘season’ officially begins is June 1 and runs thru November 30, and likewise, the vast majority of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes form during August-October.

The earliest Atlantic Hurricane, I know of, was observed on March 7, 1908, and the earliest U.S. landfall was on June 9, 1966 (“Alma”, which struck NW Florida). The latest U.S. strike was November 30, 1925 (Tampa, Florida).

I don’t know much about Pacific Hurricanes (especially the Western Pacific). How about some input from our experts from down under (Wheels)?

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005
0900Z FRI MAY 20 2005

AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS FOR GUATEMALA AND
HONDURAS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.

Friday, May 20/05: Adrian made landfall over the country of El Salvador between 1 and 2 AM EDT. As Adrian was approaching the coast, a ham radio operator reported a wind gust of 81 mph at the Comalpa International Airport 15 miles south-southeast of the San Salvador, the capital city of El Salvador. There is some question whether Adriam came ashore as a weak Cat 1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm. Satellite images shows a quickly weakening tropical cyclone as cloud tops are warming and organization is becoming quite poor. Because of its poor representation on satellite, Adrian has been downgraded to a tropical storm. Even in its weakening state, residents of El Salvador and Honduras should prepare for very heavy rains, mudslides and significant flooding as the storm crawls across Central America. A tropical storm warning remains in effect along the coast of El Salvador.

More information at Discussion #12:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/200837.shtml

"... WITH THE DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND ARE BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EL SALVADOR ARE NOT ENTIRELY CONSISTENT
WITH MY INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE BUT THESE MAY BE AFFECTED BY
LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER ADRIAN
NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EL
SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS QUITE SMALL...IT MAY
WELL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN. SHOULD
ADRIAN OR ITS REMNANT EMERGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASINGLY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
RE-INTENSIFICATION.

THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN CONTINUES TO BE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY
DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA."


Regards,
Gord May
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Old 20-05-2005, 21:12   #4
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Hey Gord,

Learn something every time I read one of your posts.

I was thinking that hurricane season started 1 June for the northern hemisphere. I didn't know it started earlier in the Pacific.

Be interesting to watch how the season unfolds compared to the recent forecasts.

Thanks for the info,

John
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Old 20-05-2005, 21:29   #5
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Well I guess there are several differences with us down here. Firstly we are way South. NZ sits between the 35-47 S degree line ruffly. So we sit in that band called the Roaring 40's. New Zealand is also of little land mass, nor does it have any other substantial land mass within it's weather patterns path. Our weather is generated in the Deep Southern Indian Ocean, and rolls up under Australia and onto us.
If anyone is interested, lets look at this in a litle more detail. World wide, there are two tmain things that make weather. The Hot tropical airmass rises and needs coler air to replace the vacume so to speak. The cold antartic/arctic air falls and rushes along the ocean surface to fill that void. The Tropical air rushes back to the Polar regions to fill the void left by the falling polar air. OK, in reality, it aint that simple, but I will get back to that. Now add to that mix, a rotating Earth. So the Air masses don't follow a straight latitudinal line. The air mass spirals towards there destiantions. Now back to the more complicated part. The Air masses don't travel all the way from pole to equator. At about half way, the warm air mass traveling to the pole drops and the cold airmass rises and both turn for their return journey at that point. OK, as the Earth "wobbles" in it's orbit, we get our Seasons. Although the Atmosphere is part of the Earth, it tends to act a little more fluid. it is a Mass that like all Mass, doesn't like change in direction. So as the Earth starts to tilt, the atmosphere takes a little while before itstarts to move with it. As a Season, we see this as a calm'ish spell in our Autumn/Fall period. The Earth tilts to its max and hesitates before tilting back the otherway. The atmosphere keeps moving and eventually that boundary of two cycling airmasses moves to it's extreme southern/northern points. The Earth is now on it's path back the otherway, and we now have those Polar Airmasses moving towards the equator. This brings the cold winters to most. As the Earth reaches its max tilt the otherway, we still have an Atmosphere trying to catch up and we get our Spring stormy weather. OK that is greatly simplified. Add to all that, the affects of the Land, Sea, Sun, Cloud, Gravity, Pull of the Moon, Yes the moon, and the Weather as we know it is very complicated. So complicated, that the most powerful computers in the world are employed to try and predict it, and yet still fail miserably on the odd occasion.
So back to answer Gord, well, we tend to be too far south to get a full blown Cyclone/Hurricane as you guy's do. We often get the tail ends of them and they usually bring vast amounts of rain. We do get the cold Polar Blasts and the very strong winds from across the lower Tasman coming from the Indian Ocean, unimpeadid by any land mass. So we can experaiance Hurricane force winds and rain and snow, but not in a true tightly packed circular Hurricane looking storm that has an eye wall etc etc.
Take alook at this site and you will get an idea of how our weather systems work down here. It is a very interesting look.
www.weather.org/newzealand.htm
If you click on "loop" and be patient and allow all the files to load, you will get a five day look at the moving weather pattern. It's most fasinating.

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Old 21-05-2005, 02:30   #6
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A couple years ago Hurricane Marty nailed the Baja with some major damage while eveyone had their eye on FL. The news has their priorities.

http://bajainsider.com/archive/marty/inside-marty01.htm

This is one of the most haunting images from the storm. At the time, the name of this vessel was unknown. After the passing of the eye, the 130MPH winds from the south began. Vessels from Marina Abaroa and Marina de La Paz started crashing into each other, now all moving to the north. "Magic Moon" as it was later found out to be, was 'sailing' out of the marinas.

Radio reports began circulating of this ketch running bare pole out of Ensenada La Paz with from 1 to 4 persons onboard. It was later discovered "Magic Moon's" phantom crew had been just that.

Under only the guidance of the wind, she passed down the narrow channel, over the sand bar and out to sea. She was later found wrecked on Espiritu Santos (Sainted Spirits) some 15 miles north. With all the sightings and the irony of her final destination, was someone or something at the helm in her final voyage home?

The news of the NZ storm, with pictures, hit the news here last night. Looked worst then the Calif. floods.

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Old 21-05-2005, 05:09   #7
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Firstly, I am not belittleing what has happend in NZ. It is sad for those concerned. But to put it into context, this is a very small area in NZ. The main town concerned is a wee village called Matata. (pronounce it like Mar- Ta- tar). the has been widespread rain, but this wee town got hit real bad. However, it may not have been the rain that was the major cause of the damage. This area has been geting a swarm of earthquakes since Feb. At least one per day and sometimes more. There was also one on that very day the damage occured. So the slips may have been becuase the surrounding hills were unstable and being sodden with rain, and another shake, it all came sliding down.
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Old 21-05-2005, 12:28   #8
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STORM SEASONS

Tropical Storm Seasons
Tropical Storms can, and do, develop out of season; the dates of the storm seasons below are a guide only as storms may develop outside of these dates (during the official storm season dates, storm risk is very high, outside of these dates storm risk is low but not zero, especially the period just before and just after the official dates).

ATLANTIC North
Official season: June - November

NE PACIFIC
Official season: May - November

NW PACIFIC
Official season: All Year - Worst - July - Oct

SOUTH PACIFIC
Official season: November - April

SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
Official season: December- April

ARABIAN SEA
Official season: April - December - Worst - Apr-May, and Oct-Nov

BAY OF BENGAL
Official season: May - December

See also:

“Bowditch - The American Practical Navigator” (Chapter 35 Tropical Cyclones)
http://pollux.nss.nima.mil/pubs/pubs...s.html?rid=187

NOAA - Mariners Guide
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marinersguide.pdf

HTH,
Gord May
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Old 23-05-2005, 12:22   #9
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Terminiology

Storm Terminology:

Hurricane / Typhoon:
A warm-core tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 64 kt (74 mph or 119 kph) or more, and blowing counterclockwise (Northern Hemisphere) around a calm center of low pressure.. The term hurricane is used for Northern Hemisphere cyclones east of the International Dateline to the Greenwich Meridian. The term typhoon is used for Pacific cyclones north of the Equator west of the International Dateline.
Wind gusts may exceed the sustained winds by 25 to 50 percent. Hurricanes are rated by their wind speed, with a Category 1 being the weakest hurricane at 64 - 82 Kts (74 - 95 mph) and Category 5 being the most intense at over 135 Kts (over 155 mph). Hurricanes also can generate tornadoes of 130 - 260 Kts (150 - 300 mph).

Hurricane Warning:
A warning means that a hurricane is expected to strike within 24 hours. Residents must be ready to leave if local officials order an evacuation of their area.
A warning that sustained winds 64 kt (74 mph or 119 kph) or higher associated with a hurricane are expected in a specified coastal area in 24 hours or less. A hurricane warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.

Hurricane Watch:
An announcement of specific coastal areas that a hurricane or an incipient hurricane condition poses a possible threat, generally within 36 hours.
When a watch is declared, hurricane conditions are possible and may threaten an area within 36 hours, and the area affected and danger period will be specified. Voluntary evacuations may be encouraged at this stage.

Storm Surge:
An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a hurricane or other intense storm, and whose height is the difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the absence of the cyclone. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomic high tide from the observed storm tide.
It can be devastating and in fact is a major cause of damage from hurricanes. The storm surge itself is caused by the wind and pressure "pushing" the water into the continental shelf and onto the coastline. The height of a surge is basically measured as a deviation from the mean sea level in the area, and in some historical storms, this value has reached over 20 feet.

Storm Tide:
The actual level of sea water resulting from the astronomic tide combined with the storm surge.

Tropical Depression:
A tropical cyclone (low-pressure front with a rotary circulation of clouds) in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 kph) or less.

Tropical Disturbance:
A large area of rain and clouds with no circulating winds. A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection - generally 100 to 300 nmi in diameter - originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a nonfrontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field.

Tropical Storm:
A storm with a distinct rotation of winds around a center of low pressure with a barometric reading of 29.4 inches or lower. When sustained winds reach 34 Kts (39 mph) or higher, the storm is given a name by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Rainfall may equal or exceed that of some hurricanes, and tides may be several feet higher than normal. Wind gusts may reach hurricane velocity of 64 Kts (74 mph) or more and, depending on tides and other conditions, damage may be just as severe as that caused by a hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core, nonfrontal low pressure system of synoptic scale that develops over tropical or subtropical waters and has a definite organized surface circulation.

Tropical Wave:
A weak, low-pressure front (trough or cyclonic curvature maximum) moving westward in the trade winds (easterlies). Clouds and rain are linked to the wave, but it has no wind circulation. May be short-lived or move up to 3,000 miles without change. The wave may reach maximum amplitude in the lower middle troposphere.

Advisory:
Official information issued by tropical cyclone warning centers describing all tropical cyclone watches and warnings in effect along with details concerning tropical cyclone locations, intensity and movement, and precautions that should be taken.

Best Track:
A subjectively smoothed path, versus a precise and very erratic fix-to-fix path, used to represent tropical cyclone movement. It is based on an assessment of all available data.

Center:
The vertical axis or core of a tropical cyclone. It is usually determined by cloud vorticity patterns, wind, and/or pressure distributions.

Center/Vortex Fix:
The location of the center of a tropical or subtropical cyclone obtained by reconnaissance aircraft penetration, satellite, radar, or synoptic data.

Eye:
The relatively calm center of the tropical cyclone that is more than one half surrounded by wall cloud.

Eye Wall/Wall Cloud:
An organized band of cumuliform clouds immediately surrounding the center of a tropical cyclone. Eye wall and wall cloud are used synonymously.

Present Movement:
The best estimate of the movement of the center of a tropical cyclone at a given time and given position. This estimate does not reflect the short-period, small scale oscillations of the cyclone center.

Gale Warning:
A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds in the range 34 kt (39 mph or 63 kph) to 47 kt (54 mph or 87 kph) inclusive, either predicted or occurring not directly associated with tropical cyclones.

High Wind Warning:
A high wind warning is defined as 1-minute average surface winds of 35 kt (40 mph or 64 kph) or greater lasting for 1 hour or longer, or winds gusting to 50 kt (58 mph or 93 kph) or greater regardless of duration that are either expected or observed over land.

Hurricane Season:
The portion of the year having a relatively high incidence of hurricanes.
The hurricane season in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico runs from June 1 to November 30.
The hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific basin runs from May 15 to November 30. The hurricane season in the Central Pacific basin runs from June 1 to November 30.

Best regards for the 2005 season.

Gord May
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