Near-term Yachting financial forcast... Used boats.

[TabbyCat]

What's a year of your life worth? Or in your example, 3 years? I say, if you're ready to buy the boat, do it now, you will never get those boat-less years back.

[LakeSuperior]

As mentioned above let's plan to overplan everything we do. Let's make every move calculated and optimized for return on investment or a minimum loss on investment. Let's suck all the oxygen out of the room.

If you are cutting it so close on retirement that you have to sell the boat for XX amount when you are done then you really need to rethink your plan.

Not one of us is getting any younger. How do you know in three years you will have enough health to cruise? Factor that risk into your cost benefit equation.

[Cheechako]

Not predictable. Economists are really no better at it than the average housewife. With the increasing obstructions and cost for owning a boat, my bet would be that there will be fewer and fewer demand for boats..... except big expensive ones for millionaires. Anchor restrictions, greedy marina and port authorities, the cost of oil driven up by people who really dont even want to buy the oil, (what would happen if you were required to take delivery of oil if you bought oil futures?!) a glut of old boats that wont go away rotting in place... all give boating a bad name. I see ads on craigs list selling boats by families that want to trade for motorhomes or trailers. Dont think I've seen one going the opposite way. BTW: the last 10 presidents were split 5 Dem and 5 Republican. 4 of the Repub's increased govt spending, 4 of the Dems decreased gov't spending.

[David_Old_Jersey]

Broadly speaking will match the economy.

If you can work out where that will be in 3 years time, the cost of a boat will be loose change!

[Therapy]

Originally Posted by David_Old_Jersey

Broadly speaking will match the economy.

If you can work out where that will be in 3 years time, the cost of a boat will be loose change!

Specifically in the US boats always follow housing. Put up the charts if you want to look them up.

What do you think housing will be in 3,5 or 10 years?

[Celestialsailor]

Interesting thread and thank you for your insight...

...For me, A boat is my life-style. I don't see it as any type of investment. That said, I'm a blue collar guy and will buy as much boat as I can for as little liquid money as I have. Only once did I borrow for a boat and paid it off quickly to stop the financial interest hemorrhaging.
In 2001 I entered the housing market in Hawaii, predicting a moderate increase in pricing due to California steady housing price increase. Of course a lot of nay-sayers told me that Hawaii was tourist driven and would not increase. By 2005 my house there was increasing by 20% a month. I saw the writing on the wall as the GDP only goes up 3% a year. I bailed on the market with a 300% profit. I have bought back into the market in California in 2009. Needless to say mortgage free. And yes, I'm still a blue collar guy. I have no interest in much cash laying around with the economy the way it is. Makes no sense to me as it is still devaluing. My goal is to live on the boat, rent the house out and use that cash to sustain a cruising lifestyle. I'll ride the next few years and see what the economy does. There is a good chance it will recover in the next few years and the same chance it will tank into an abyss.
Today, there are to many factors to predict with any accuracy what the economy might do. It's a world economy now which is a relatively new occurrence. All I can say is invest in your happiness. If you love boats and adventure, the choice is simple.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by David_Old_Jersey

If you can work out where that will be in 3 years time, the cost of a boat will be loose change!

Bang on!

+1!

barnakiel

[ty.gregory]

Originally Posted by denverd0n

Don't count on it. I spent ten years working for one of the largest mutual fund companies in America. The very best of their stock pickers, with millions of dollars to spend on research and analysis, were rarely able to beat the return of a simple S&P 500 Index fund over any five year period. The same is true for all mutual fund companies everywhere.

In fact, every year my company would have a contest to see who could predict where the Dow would be on the day before the company Christmas party. So, in June we would all make our guesses and the winner would be announced at the Christmas party. The winner would get some sort of prize, typically worth $1,000 or so.

Who do you think usually won? The top analysts? The highly rated and highly paid portfolio managers? No, actually, no one "usually" won. It was just as likely to be one of the janitors or secretaries as it was to be one of those "smart guys" who were being paid to make this sort of guess every day.

I worked for a major retail stock brokerage. Every year there was a contest between the six largest brokerage houses to pick three stocks. There was also a dart board with the financial section of the Wall Street Journal layed out. Yep, dart board won four out of the five years I was there.

I'm sorry. I don't like the story either-- not because it isn't true, but because it is... Makes me believe a sailboat might be just as good an investment as any other. Let's go sailing... far, far away.

[jmackay]

Lost my shirt on my house and expect to lose my shirt on my boat. If I stay far enough south I won't need one anyway. At least my kids won't have to worry about inheritance tax.

[Tropic Cat]

This is a thinly disguised "when will the economy come roaring back" question.

In the "old" days (pre 2007) home equity loans fueled the boat marketplace. They disappeared with our housing crash and not surprisingly, took most of the boat market with it. I don't expect to see those days returning in my lifetime. The jury is still out on whether politics can actually fix our economy in the USA. If I were a betting man, I would bet against it. All those years of our politicians kicking the proverbial "can" down the road just met the policy decision to create a middle class in China and India. We are in the "perfect economic storm" which our "experts" say they never saw coming...(yeah...right)

My forecast is that well thought of and well maintained boats will sell eventually, but at increasingly lower prices. What's interesting is that boats which are not common names aren't selling at all.... and of course, neglected boats will continue to languish and rot at the dock. Folks who own one of these should donate it and take the tax benefit.

Cruising is a passion that is becoming affordable by fewer and fewer people each year. All anyone has to do is to check the attendance at The Seven Seas Cruising Association annual meeting in Melbourne, FL each year. I live there and count the boats attending each year. This is a depressing trend that's not anywhere near the bottom. And, of course, there are what I feel are much better stats on our economy here;
(Shadow Government Statistics : Home Page)

[sailorboy1]

Are we really trying to use the words "boat" and "not losing money" together?

[Doodles]

Originally Posted by Don Lucas

Are we really trying to use the words "boat" and "not losing money" together?

Delusional is the operative word I believe.

[speakeasy]

Boatman +1.

David Stockman, Raygun's budget director and one of architects of current financial direction of the goobermint, lately has had a change of heart. He says everything is overvalued due to the debt excess, which has yet to be written down. (I think the Fed will be fighting deflation until all that bad paper is written down). When asked what his investment strategy is, he replied ABCD, anything Bernanke can't destroy.

The price of boats will vary but most of the budget stuff has hit close to a bottom, but 'deals' are still had by good smart traders. All the money printing, in the trillions now, isn't fighting that deflation it's just fueling inflation in commodities, oil, gold, wheat, etc., the stuff, while wages and income continue at 0% increase of negative growth.


EVERYTHING IN THE WORLD IS OVERVALUED « The Burning Platform

If you want to go sailing, figure out how to do it and mind this quote:

Sterling Hayden Quotes (Author of Wanderer)

[denverd0n]

Originally Posted by Celestialsailor

It's a world economy now which is a relatively new occurrence.

Yes it is. And Hollande, the socialist, just won the presidency in France. That leaves only Germany with a leader who is strongly advocating fiscal responsibility. What does that mean for the EU in general and the euro in particular? Anyone's guess, but my money says that some dramatic changes can be expected.

[SeaSloth]

Originally Posted by Don Lucas

Are we really trying to use the words "boat" and "not losing money" together?

Maybe we should say "boat" and "not losing too much money" instead.