Vendee Globe Starts Today, Facts, Video, Discussion

[Polux]

Fantastic race this year with a weather situation allowing for the two first to come together almost giving a new start to the race.

Last Year Armel passed the cape Horn on the tails of François Gabart, with few hours diference but after that Gabart just went way. This year almost 2 days separated Armel and Alex at the Horn, but Armel saw that diference meth away on a big high center he had to cross.

Last post I said that now it seemed to me they would sail at about the same speed but I was wrong. The difference is now smaller between both speeds but the conditions are still better to Alex. On a great post that analyzes the situation they say that Alex will have a wind advantage till he is at only 100nm of Armel....and after that it would be with them, the better will win:

"Passing Patagonia, Armel Le Cléac’h had a lead of almost 820 miles over Alex Thomson and 1620 miles over Jérémie Beyou. Four and a half days later, the gap is down to 277 miles between Banque Populaire VIII and Hugo Boss, and 1245 miles to Maître CoQ.

This upheaval has been caused by the weather patterns off Argentina. For the three leaders, who were nevertheless a long way from Cape Horn, the wind holes being generated in the Andes have not allowed them to take the direct route involving leaving the Falklands to starboard and sailing close to the coast of South America. The only solution was to sail much further out to sea heading towards the NE on the edge of the Antarctic Exclusion Zone, which goes up as far as 45°S because of the presence of icebergs off South Georgia.

While the British sailor was able to sail at high speed towards the Horn, the leader was unable to catch the southern low and got trapped in light airs, which can sometimes be found in this region. The only option was to head east a long way off the coast after passing south of the Falklands. While the Breton sailor was only making ten knots in the light winds, Thomson was speeding along at twenty knots behind a low as he made his way around the Horn.

Meanwhile, Beyou was also at high speed being pushed along ahead of another low. Since Jérémie Beyou passed the Cape at 1344 UTC on Tuesday after 51 days 01 hour and 42 minutes (or 4d 01hr 10 mins after Armel Le Cléac’h and 2d 02hrs 02 mins after Alex Thomson), while the weather conditions have not been so bad for the leader, they have been better for the two chasing him.

The danger is coming up from behind for the leader, but also for the skipper in second place. Still in a moderate westerly air stream, Le Cléac’h has to cross a high-pressure cell blocking his way north towards Cape Frio (Brazil).
It is impossible to round it via the east, as this area of high pressure is stretching out from Uruguay to 25° W over the next 24 hours. Tonight, the blue boat will find herself in very light winds and is set to slow down considerably, while the black rocket will still benefit from a decent westerly air stream, before also getting into the calms… We can expect the gap between the two frontrunners to drop to around a hundred miles.

This strip of light and variable winds is around 150 miles wide and should allow third-placed Beyou to make his comeback. While he is struggling in light breezes this morning off Staten Island, the situation is set to change around midday with a 25-knot westerly developing. This should allow him a quick passage to the Falklands and over the next 48 hours Maître CoQ may get back to less than 800 miles from the two leaders."
News - Catch-up time - Vendée Globe 2016-2017
https://gis.ee/vg/

I would add that the two, Armel and Alex are going to pass that high pressure center ahead with a different routing: Armel near the coast, Alex much more offshore.

With the weather information available it looks to me that will result first in Alex gaining miles over Armel but that at a longer term the advantage will be for Armel. the option taken by Armel looks better to me but with so many quick changes on the weather patterns it is hard to tell.

Conrad Colman continues foot down trying not to be completely caught by the storm he has on his back and it is having a rough time. Here we can see tryng to get away and complaining about the cold:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5SCqNjFiPc

More rough time for him and Nandor Fa when they pass the Horn in a few days.

Also bad weather for the last. Pieter Heerema is now last and he talks about making a pit stop on Australia? Don't know what he means by that.

And a nice video by Arnaud Boissieres. Arnaud is only 12th on the race and by the way he sails we can understand how the level of this sailors (and mostly the ones ahead) is awesome. He is complaining that some moments ago he had a squall passing by with big winds (43K) and that he was in trouble for some time, with water everywhere. A pity he had not the camera on :-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8a4OWCavX8

"le bordel..." that's what he calls the situation, very French
http://www.la-definition.fr/definition/bordel

[Polux]

This time is me that have a question. There is no stealth mode in this edition? I know that on the virtual regatta there is but I don't see nobody using it on the race.

After all Alex is taking the same route as Armel following him in what concerns routing to cross those high center pressure zones. it seems to me that it should be the ideal time for Armel to go in stealth mode.

Anybody knows if there is stealth mode in this race? (meaning that the position and course of a boat would not be known by the other racers or by us).

[Polux]

And the race becomes better and better. Alex is almost sailing on the same weather system as Armel and with two high pressure centers ahead (no wind).

Like the Vendee team predicted some days ago, the distance between them will reach close to 100nm diference and than it will be game on again, with both being negotiating the passage of those big holes with very delicate routing.

Armel beat Alex the last time they sailed on the same weather system. Will he be able to do it again?

12 hours ago it seemed that Armel was following the same routing as Alex but now it seems again that he will try a passage more to the East, trying to overtake him.

Some two posts before, when that seemed already Alex's strategy, I said that Armel's course seemed better to me but we will have to look at how things will be in 48 hours to understand why and one of the characteristics here is that the situation is very volatile and the previsions are constantly changing. So it is hard to tell.

Dominic Bourgeois, a meteorologist makes an interesting analysis of the situation :

The leader Banque Populaire VIII is getting chased, while the chaser can see where not to go, what to avoid, where there is no wind. It is in front that the wind is playing hide and seek. Fortunately for the French skipper, it is now daylight in the middle of the Atlantic, as at night it is a dark tunnel with no hint of moonlight. What exactly is happening off Montevideo?

An area of high pressure has developed out of the sub-tropical heat and with its isobars spread out, there is very little wind to be found. This is particularly frustrating when the leader has seen his lead of 800 miles melt away so quickly.

We know that the Breton sailor is psychologically very strong, always determined and his convictions are seemingly hard to shake. He has no choice here but to push ahead at 39° W heading North as best he can to attempt to pick up the weak easterly winds.

Unfortunately this area of high pressure is only the first problem as high-pressure cells are bubbling up everywhere. The St. Helena high is swallowing up what remains of this system which developed off Uruguay and is creating havoc in the Atlantic.

Alex Thomson appears to have analysed this new situation. He is moving away from the route taken by Le Cléac’h to head towards the NE hoping to get around the problem out at 35°W. He hopes to make the most of what remains of a southern low heading off towards the Indian Ocean.

In a moderate westerly air stream, Hugo Boss can imagine getting to the same latitude as the leader but further east going from one cell to another.

This is a risky strategy and an aggressive one, and the outcome is highly uncertain, as at the end of the year it looks like there will be another upheaval in the Atlantic with trade winds developing along the coast of Brazil, meaning they may want to get closer to shore.

It will be upwind and against the currents, but at least there will be some movement with the possibility of tacking upwind to Cape Frio, which marks the separation between the St. Helena high and the Bay of Rio. The next one hundred miles will be crucial for Armel Le Cléac’h. If he gets completely stuck in the calms, Alex Thomson is lying in wait.

News - Post-Christmas blues in the South Atlantic - Vendée Globe 2016-2017

https://gis.ee/vg/

[Bleemus]

No stealth mode. Position is revealed every four hours for all boats.

[Juho]

Originally Posted by Bleemus

No stealth mode. Position is revealed every four hours for all boats.

Maybe no need either. It seems that winds change so quickly that it's not useful to follow a trace that is older than few hours.

Right now Alex Thomson should however turn left immediately to catch the same winds that Armel Le Cléac'h is about to catch soon.

[Polux]

Originally Posted by Bleemus

No stealth mode. Position is revealed every four hours for all boats.

Yes, I have guessed that because nobody is using it but why maintaining it on the on line race? Can you post any link where they talk about that and say why on this race they decided not to use it? As you know it is used also on other circumnavigation races.

[Polux]

Originally Posted by Juho

Maybe no need either. It seems that winds change so quickly that it's not useful to follow a trace that is older than few hours.

Right now Alex Thomson should however turn left immediately to catch the same winds that Armel Le Cléac'h is about to catch soon.

Yes, I thing Armel approach is better but maybe Alex is trying something else, like it was suggested here: "Alex Thomson appears to have analysed this new situation. He is moving away from the route taken by Le Cléac’h to head towards the NE hoping to get around the problem out at 35°W. He hopes to make the most of what remains of a southern low heading off towards the Indian Ocean.

In a moderate westerly air stream, Hugo Boss can imagine getting to the same latitude as the leader but further east going from one cell to another. "

[Juho]

Originally Posted by Polux

Yes, I thing Armel approach is better but maybe Alex is trying something else, like it was suggested here: "Alex Thomson appears to have analysed this new situation. He is moving away from the route taken by Le Cléac’h to head towards the NE hoping to get around the problem out at 35°W. He hopes to make the most of what remains of a southern low heading off towards the Indian Ocean.

In a moderate westerly air stream, Hugo Boss can imagine getting to the same latitude as the leader but further east going from one cell to another. "

Maybe the question is about catching headwinds soon vs. catching easier winds somewhat later. Concerning where to go next, the western side of mid Atlantic seems more tempting to me.

[Bleemus]

21.3.2 Polling of rankings and positions during the race

Throughout the duration of the race, competitors must make sure that the Iridium

beacons supplied by the organiser are in working order.

Six sets of rankings will be issued at the following times :

04H00 UT, 08H00 UT, 11H00 UT, 15H00 UT, 18h00 UT and 21h00 UT.

04:00UTC (pos of 03:30UTC), 08:00UTC (pos of 07:30UTC), 11:00UTC (pos of

10:30UTC), 14:00UTC (pos of 13:30UTC), 17:00UTC (pos of 16:30UTC) et 21:00UTC

(pos of 20:30UTC) – This change NoR 6.1.

The rankings will be displayed on the race website and sent to the press.

They will be sent to competitors at the organiser’s cost, in the format requested (

XLS, POSREPORT,…)

In the event of the Iridium beacon being used ceasing to function, the competitor

shall replace it according to instructions provided by Race Management.

In the event of all Iridium beacons ceasing to function, the positioning will be polled

via the boat’s Inmarsat C.

Until 15h UT on 6th November, when passing the main capes on the course, then

from within 200 miles of the finishing line, the positions and/or the distances to the

finish of the boats approaching Les Sables d’Olonne may be communicated by Race

Management every hour on the race website, to the press and to the public.

[Polux]

It is evident that this year there is no stealth mode, but what I cannot find out is information regarding why they took that possibility this year while maintaining it on the Virtual Vendee.

It makes no sense to have taken that option here and maintaining it on the virtual race. I think it makes the race less interesting and limits more the sailor's options in what regards strategic moves, that this way are clear for all.

[Polux]

Originally Posted by Juho

Maybe the question is about catching headwinds soon vs. catching easier winds somewhat later. Concerning where to go next, the western side of mid Atlantic seems more tempting to me.

It looks more to me the possibility to have wind, even if a headwind against current, versus the possibility of managing to pass a zone with very weak wind and get after that downwind winds.

I guess (if that is Alex's option) that he will be counting that those previsions that show almost no wind would not be completely accurate. In fact if he can pass that no zone wind he will be on an advantageous position regarding Armel.

If that course is confirmed Armel is playing for sure while Alex is more gambling and betting strongly that the conditions would not be as bad as they show on the previsions. A gamble that may pay off big time but that is a risky one.

[SV DestinyAscen]

Originally Posted by Polux

It is evident that this year there is no stealth mode, but what I cannot find out is information regarding why they took that possibility this year while maintaining it on the Virtual Vendee.

It makes no sense to have taken that option here and maintaining it on the virtual race. I think it makes the race less interesting and limits more the sailor's options in what regards strategic moves, that this way are clear for all.

Sponsors and coverage suffers if competitors can go stealth. You can't comment on the unknown. The virtual is a game not a media event.

Think AT has to stay true to his style because he's ultimately sailing a crippled boat and if he follows Armel he loses.

What I've found humorous the last couple of days is how French ppl lament armel bad luck and chalking AT's success to fast boat and good luck. He's had bad luck for the entire Indian and south pacifuc. Mother nature roots for none.

[Juho]

Originally Posted by Polux

It looks more to me the possibility to have wind, even if a headwind against current, versus the possibility of managing to pass a zone with very weak wind and get after that downwind winds.

I guess (if that is Alex's option) that he will be counting that those previsions that show almost no wind would not be completely accurate. In fact if he can pass that no zone wind he will be on an advantageous position regarding Armel.

If that course is confirmed Armel is playing for sure while Alex is more gambling and betting strongly that the conditions would not be as bad as they show on the previsions. A gamble that may pay off big time but that is a risky one.

Yes, it makes sense to gamble if you are behind, and your competitor seems to be faster in similar circumstances. I don't see any major upsides however, since they are both heading in the same direction, somewhere east of Recife, and the leader seems to get some wind all the way. I also didn't find any obvious opposing currents (if you don't go too close to the shore).

[Polux]

Originally Posted by SV DestinyAscen

Sponsors and coverage suffers if competitors can go stealth. You can't comment on the unknown. The virtual is a game not a media event.

Think AT has to stay true to his style because he's ultimately sailing a crippled boat and if he follows Armel he loses.

What I've found humorous the last couple of days is how French ppl lament armel bad luck and chalking AT's success to fast boat and good luck. He's had bad luck for the entire Indian and south pacifuc. Mother nature roots for none.

All the circumnavigation French races and some if not all transats have this possibility of going stealth for 24 hours, and this from many years.

Maybe you are right regarding sponsors but that is sad that's a possibility that can make a better and more interesting race (giving the sailors more strategic leverage). If it had been taken off due to Sponsor's pressure (if it was that the case), it is even more sad.

Regarding bad luck I don't see nobody lamenting that even on the vendee site, except commenting facts. And fact is that I don't remember of a gain of about 750nm on just some few days in any vendee.

They have made some research on past editions and they found out exceptional gains of 500 and 600nm, but never one so big in so little time.

Previous wins by Armel regarding Alex, from both sailing the same weather system, with an Armel advantage of 76nm, to an advantage of 818nm, took 12 days of sailing.

Actual wins of Alex over Armel, from a disadvantage of 818mn to a disadvantage of 75nm took only 5 days.

Hardly the same thing in what regards having luck with the weather.

Personally I am very satisfied with the recovery of Alex and the bad luck of Armel with the weather. This only makes for a more interesting race.

Of course one thing is to catch Armel, other is overtaking him, even if he can do it, if his gamble goes right, but even so Armel does no deserve to win this race if he cannot beat cleanly and by many miles Alex.

I believe that this difficult routing and difficult choice of courses they have ahead is favorable to Armel, since I judge him a better router than Alex. But of course I can be wrong and facts will prove that, if Armel does not win this race by a considerable difference.

We will see it anyway...I cannot wait

[donradcliffe]

Just joint the virtual race and put your own chips on the table. I have been using the free routing program QtVlm for guidance, but the grib files it uses do not seem to be the same as the virtual race. Looking at the wind predictions, there is definitely more wind near the coast, but its on the nose, and QtVlm wants me to stay east and hit the trades at about 30W. The good news is that I've caught up well over 1000 miles on the leaders, the bad news is that I've lost 30,000 positions since the Cape. Lots of fun, and a whole lot better doing it from a desk.