Fourth question: Can you avoid bad storms?

[Brendon]

Very nice and kind way of putting things, I've skirted storms with my Piper Cub, but I imagine when you're probably doing three or four knots it'll be kind of hard to not get caught with your pants down from time to time, very polite way of putting it sir

[river251]

Thank you all so much for all of the responses. It's slightly overwhelming. There is a lot of variety but a kind of overall consensus I think. Just wanted to pop in and say thanks, this is more than helpful.

Seems it would be good to have a fast, strong boat, good forecasts, and be prepared anyway.

[rupertfb]

I generally tell my clients:
1 to 3 days: fabulous forecasts....spot on
3-6 days: Getting looser, but the concepts are correct
6-10 days: very loose, but concepts are still recognizable
Over 10: Roll the dice

So.....

1) in agreement with all the above experienced writers.....if its over a few days trip offshore.....be prepared for anything
2) Often overlooked: Fronts whip up squalls. These can provide some VERY extreme conditions locally, more so in 'energetic' months, yet still possible in winter (note the famous 'Bomb Cyclone - off SE coast in January about 3 and 1/2yrs ago)

Start sailing coastal at first, to allow you to quickly seek shelter.

If you plan carefully and know what you're doing, the biggest sea passage all the way to the Virgin islands need only be 80nm, and from then on - you're Island hopping. It'll take forever though....but that's another story!

[Sailor-Gene]

We cruised from Annapolis to Honduras hitting all the good spots in between for 14 years on our Manta Sail & Power cats. We equipped both boats with SSB and Pactor modems. This allowed us to download weather GRIB files via SailMail, also email via SailMail. We subscribed to a weather guru and listened to his broadcasts along with the famous "HERB". We always had ample warning to goto hurricane holes or double up lines in port.
One trip, our Guru said leave the N Bahama Keys NOW and be tied up in port in 3 days... Winds and currents were good to us so we passed Jacksonville and went in to Charlestown. Calm and beautiful until the hurricane hit the next night.
Information and Skill will help keep you safe! Happy Sailing

[Perfect Ride]

Suggestion: start looking at weather forecasts now and see how you are able to 'guess' the weather.

On our current boat, we have done 40,000 miles and were able to choose ALL of the major weather we encountered. Largest seas were 18' and max gusts to 50kts. Both of which we knowingly went into.
Seas have a 10 day forecast and other weather can go out to 14 days depending on the service. Some services are better in some areas than others and I advise you learn how as much of forecasting as you can. Ultimately, we take several opinions and then make up our own minds on routing while on the water. Each sea is slightly different and some are more prone to unpredictability.

If you remember the first time you took a car onto a highway and compare that experience to getting on the highway now... sailing in weather is a bit like that: the more you do, the more comfortable you will become with it. Just mind that you maintain proper respect.

The adage goes: You can choose location, or time, but to stay in favorable weather, you cannot choose both.

[MJH]

Originally Posted by river251

If you can take all the time you want, and are not on a schedule for arrival, can you avoid storms?

I haven't yet sailed but am doing research, including here. It still seems that this is not a settled question.

I see and read often that modern forecasting can predict the weather 3 or 4 days ahead. Yet, there are stories of experienced operators getting caught in severe, damaging, and dangerous storms.

I understand some people must stick to a deadline, and proceed even if the weather is bad, for example John Kretschmer delivering a boat found himself in Force 13 and 11 storms with 30 foot waves. He says it is exhilarating. I want none of that. If I can't avoid storms, I'm not sure I want to traverse oceans.

So, my question is, if you can take all the time you want, can access the best weather data, and are not on a schedule for arrival, can you avoid storms?

Thanks for your thoughts.

Jim

To properly come to a conclusion on your question you would have to research all the necessary details of the voyage you read about, i.e. the planned route, the season, the then current forecast, communications aboard, the ability/experience of the captain, etc. Just reading someone's story doesn't usually give you that...you don't have the full picture.

Planning is fundamental to a successful voyage. It is said Captain Cook's first voyage into the unknown Pacific was successful because of his detailed planning.

Avoiding storms starts with good planning and picking the correct season for departure...putting the odds in your favor. Once underway good communications plays an important part in keeping up with current conditions and possibly providing options to consider.

Steve Dashew thinks that high boat speed together with excellent communications is the answer. I have seen the video of him, with Beowolf I believe, doing so in the Pacific but a database of one doesn't create a principal to cover the wide envelope of what mother nature can deliver.

Beyond the planning to avoid storms is having a boat designed for the waters you will be sailing and coastal does not equal offshore passage-making...but that is another subject.

Good Luck.

~ ~ _/) ~ ~ MJH

[argonauta1]

In browsing the various and thoughtful comments, I see no one has mentioned the seasons and whether it is a La Nina year or an El Nino in the Pacific year or somewhere in between.

I circumnavigated with lots of time: no deadline. I had happened to read an article by a single hander explaining that if one avoided an ocean passage during Hurricane, Typhoon or Cyclone season, it would be highly unusual to encounter winds beyond 50 Knots. As well, outside of those seasons, such wind events would be short lived. Also pointed out that an ocean many thousands of feet in depth takes a considerable amount of time for waves to build up much beyond say twenty-feet and of course, the fetch is much longer than in-shore so the motion is manageable: i.e. the view varies from reasonably good to just water as one transitions between troughs.

Variations are common depending on cycles such as El Nino, but avoiding the three rotating storm seasons around the world, what I came to call Seasonal Gates, worked well. Simply put, that is when I haul out or enjoyed marina life perhaps in a new and strange location.

I respected this guideline and never sailed off shore during those seasons. Did this for ten years and never encountered unmanageable weather forcing heaving to, trailing a drogue or deploying a sea anchor. Certainly, I double reefed a few times or sailed storm jib only but never bare poles.

Good luck!

[CaptBobR]

I’m a seagoing tug captain and a long distance sailor. Learning how to predict a 5 day forecast is not hard. You’ll need upper and surface wind charts but once you start doing it at home and tracking the results, you’ll notice the wind forecasting apps will mostly agree with your conclusions.
Voyage planning is something long distance sailors need to engage in.
I’ve been in gales and storms but I always knew they were coming

[Brendon]

I think you can plan, and then you can plan some more, you can do this ,you can do that , but eventually sooner or later but sooner or later, you're going to be, riders on the Storm, hum hum hum hum, into this world were thrown,

[Lihuedooley77]

mother nature does what she wants , when she wants.

In addition to all the whizding magic box forecasts, ( which are important ) you also should take a class on Marine Weather .

Also, learn to read weather signs, that have not changed in a few hundred years
Wind direction. frontal systems, barometic pressure, cloud formations, wave direction and heights, and direction , etc.

Also, there are weather repots on line, and for big storms and hurricanes you should have plenty of warning. when you are in international waters, those reports can be in a language that you do not speak.

For us, we stay total clear of hurricane season when sailing the caribbean. I have never forgot their easy to remember. Their saying.....SEPTEMBER REMEMBER , OCTOBER ALL OVER.

My own personal experience, not 100% perfect, but if you are out to sea for week, you are likely going to experience, great sailing winds, total calms, rain, low visibility, easy passing trade wind showers, to full on low pressure kick okolle storms.

Fact is you need the knowledge and seaman ship to safely cope what what ever the weather gods decide to bless you with.

IMHO, anyone who dreams of cruising off shore to island chains, or long ocean passages had best have some seamanship knowledge and experience. The ocean does not love you, and she can surely rise up and whack your private parts.

If you want the sea story of un-forecast near hurricane force winds in Gustavia Harbor,
St. Barts........we can let you know what we experienced and how we handled it.
The bloody low pressure storm system formed right there, no one knew it was coming.

This was after a great sail, and no weather warnings. Hit us about one hour after anchoring .

So, fact is, there is no perfect way to avoid the tendency of the weather gods, to unleash their fury. But, many times she behaves, and a double reefed main, a 100 % jib will make for great fun sailing.

here is a lot more to handling rough weather than the above,

[tomtriad]

Plan for the worst, hope for the best, you'll probably wind up in between. There is no amount of arm chair sailing that will prepare you for offshore; get yourself invited to crew on many boats before you take the plunge of ownership. Be prepared! Murphy works overtime on the high seas.

[Saleen411]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

Reminds me of sailing in the Gulf of Mexico...Ive seen similar formations there many times!

The forecast 30 knots max turned into 60 gusting 80 knots! We were still too close in the oil patch for my comfort so continued to sail out into the Gulf under storm jib only until out into deeper water and less dense rigs, then hove to and rode the rest of it out...maintained a watch schedule to plot our drift and keep an eye out for rigs and traffic.

.

Was this in your Wildcat?

How many reefs do you have in your main?

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by Saleen411

Was this in your Wildcat?



How many reefs do you have in your main?

No, that was on a previous monohull (Hunter 37 Cutter)...I had the stay sail set up with a reef to take it down to storm jib size...we were carrying nothing but that..hit 10.5 knots...well over hull speed!

Have done similar in the GOM on the Wildcat, but the winds were not quite so high, gusting about 50 knots, some gusts higher. We didnt expect quite so high so were carrying a double reefed main. The sail has 3 reef points, but Ive never had cause to use the 3rd. Fell off to reduce apparent wind, then hove to and let it roll over us.

[sv Stella Maris]

What makes you think being at anchor in a bad storm is any better ? Boats dragging around you, into you, dragging you with them, flooding your hatches, ripping canvas, washing you onto the reef, losing your expensive ground tackle, fouling a motor in dirty storm water, not sleeping...sometimes we LEAVE the harbor for certain wether forecasts ! I'm not alone on that one.

Replace your unrealistic question about 'storms' and replace it with 'squalls'...No, you cannot avoid weather when navigating. And 'good' weather coupled with misfortune, inexperience or incompetence kills more boats and crew than any storms ever did.

Buy a boat...go sailing. Tomorrow is a good time to start.