Fourth question: Can you avoid bad storms?

[TomThumb]

As a professional mariner for 35 years and sailor for around 46 years, the answer has three parts.

1. There are no absolutes in weather forecasting. When you consider the incomplete data and huge number of variables, the reality is a percentages game. Every warming and cooling piece of atmosphere interacts with others, the sea, the land and the data collected to feed these models is varied in quality, frequency and coverage. As a mariner you firstly plan and prepare for the worst, take as many sources of met data as you can and then rely on what you see. The only weather that matters is 'weather actual'. Blind reliance on a forecast is folly.

2. Every passage requires some planning and weather is a key factor, as are ocean and coastal currents, tides and tidal streams. How they interact is as important as the 'storm'. As a sailor you actually need wind. In a powered vessel the ideal would be flat water and no wind. So in a sense you are 'looking for weather' and a strong breeze which helps you cross the ocean has a good chance of being stronger than you desire or expect.

3. No plan survives contact with the enemy (or reality). Whatever you plan is about heading from A to B, with a diversion for C if something prevents that, like running short of water or fuel, availability of a marina or facility you were planning on. But weather can force you to develop a Plan D. Every aircraft has to have a plan for diversion and turning back and when that point will occur. Most sailors don't but should. If you had a serious injury a couple of days into an ocean passage of multiple days, turning back, against all that lovely wind you were counting on to push you along, might be your only option and your course relative to the weather is a critical factor in safety and comfort. "Fair winds and following seas" become a head wind and pounding.

So, no. You can't 'avoid storms' beyond what you can plan for. It's like going on a multi-day hike. Even in midsummer you take wet weather gear and a first aid kit...because **** happens.

[MicHughV]

I've never heard or seen a weather forecast that can give you an accurate forecast more than a few days out...after 2-3 days, it's a roll of the dice....take a look at predicted hurricane path, with each passing day, the cone of possible tracks gets wider and wider.....the NHC has probably every conceivable weather predicting device that money can buy...including a plane....

Take a look at the so-called "spaghetti" models....a dozen models will spit out a dozen tracks that can differ by 100's of miles..

Having a land based weather router may guide you around some bad spots, but that comes at a price, and there is no guarantee there either....

throw in some el nino and la nino affects...and you might as well throw darts at a board while blind folded..

the only 100% for sure way to avoid a bad storm at sea is to stay home !!

[waterman46]

Assume you are talking about unsurvivable storms. Pick when and where you sail. In the tropics it is fairly easy. Simply do not sail in hurricane/cyclone season and watch the weather sources for rare out-of-season storms. Mid latitudes, most areas have forecasting good enough to avoid any such problems. Far north, forecasting is more difficult.

It's actually a bigger problem for boats sheltering at anchor or in marinas. You don't have to be at sea during the strorm, but it can still kill or destroy your boat in port.

[ussvdharma]

Check weather charts daily...via Sailmail or Email as appropriate, and remember the rule of thumb
ALWAYS HEAD FOR THE EQUATOR SIDE OF ANY STORM. that is where the least winds will be encountered (roataing CCW) de W7KFI USSVDharma

[ChrisJHC]

Originally Posted by ussvdharma

Check weather charts daily...via Sailmail or Email as appropriate, and remember the rule of thumb
ALWAYS HEAD FOR THE EQUATOR SIDE OF ANY STORM. that is where the least winds will be encountered (roataing CCW) de W7KFI USSVDharma

It may be a rule of thumb (that I’ve never heard of) but it’s wrong!

[ussvdharma]

I guess I need to explain that....since hurricanes and storms rotate counter clockwise the forward speed of the hurricane or storm on the equator side of the storm will be subtracted from the apparent wind speed.


On the side of the storm or hurricane away from the equator the sind speed will include not only wind speed but also the fwd speed of the storm


Example: Storm moving at 18 mph, measured max wind speeds 100 mph. Thus equator side of storm apparent wind speed is only 82mph, while wind speed on side of stor away from equator is fwd speed of storm plus wind speed of 100= 100+18 or 118mph. All sea going navigators know this.


It also holds true south of equator, for lowest wind speed head for equator side of storm. de W7KFI Ussvdharma

[ussvdharma]

Puerto Vallarta, Mexico to Hilo, Hawaii 3600 miles, too me 36 days in 32' sailboat. ..pinched wind too much and ended up too far north, lost trades, used spinnaker to return 180 degrees and back into trades or I would not have spent 36 days. fortunately, no storms (May-June) chased rain squall all day to get some fresh water, never caught it. de W7KFI Ussvdharma

[Breaking Waves]

For the OP . . . . take a look at https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ng-226556.html. This is a real-life demonstration of what can and cannot be done with weather forecasting on an Atlantic crossing.

Originally Posted by ussvdharma

ALWAYS HEAD FOR THE EQUATOR SIDE OF ANY STORM

For those who want a little more detail on this comment . . . lookup Dangerous and Navigable Semicircle (https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications....pdf&type=view is a reference worth having).

Usually, this rule of thumb this is stated as 'right vs left side relative to the storm track . . . as in "In the Northern Hemisphere, that part to the right of the storm track (facing in the direction toward which the storm is moving) is called the dangerous semicircle. It is considered dangerous because (1) the actual wind speed is greater than that due to the pressure gradient alone, since it is augmented by the forward motion of the storm, and (2) the direction of the wind and sea is such as to carry a vessel into the path of the storm (in the forward part of the semicircle). The part to the left of the storm track is called the less dangerous semicircle, or navigable semicircle. In this part, the wind is decreased by the forward motion of the storm, and the wind blows vessels away from the storm track (in the forward part). Because of the greater wind speed in the dangerous semicircle, the seas are higher than in the less dangerous semicircle. In the Southern Hemisphere, the dangerous
semicircle is to the left of the storm track, and the less dangerous semicircle is to the right of the storm track.

However, this rule of thumb is so 'general' it is almost useless because of the geometry of the weather systems surrounding a rotating storm influence very strongly where the highest winds are. Just to illustrate - let's just look at four rotating storms our there right now . . . .

Paulette has relatively even wind speeds all around:


Karina has light winds to the west


Sally was light winds to the south


And North Atlantic storm has light winds to the east


Mostly this has to do with where crush zones develop.

[waterman46]

Originally Posted by ussvdharma

Check weather charts daily...via Sailmail or Email as appropriate, and remember the rule of thumb
ALWAYS HEAD FOR THE EQUATOR SIDE OF ANY STORM. that is where the least winds will be encountered (roataing CCW) de W7KFI USSVDharma

This is true for tropical storms. BUT, For an approaching front in the mid-latitudes, say Pacific Coast of US, they are still rotating CCW but big difference is they travel West to East (opposite of tropical cyclones) driven by the jet stream. So if you are say mid pacific N of Hawaii, and a low approaches from the West, you need to know where the low is heading w.r.t. your position. If strong low is headed right at you and projected to hold same course, better not head south because the highest winds will be southerly in your face and strongest in the southeast quadrant.
This is why many have lots of problems trying to get south to San Francisco after being north far enough to ride the clockwise high to the Pacific NW. And why I always cautioned those who ask on CF about wanting to try offshore passage to SF from Mexico. It works for PNW, but can be difficult for SF because you are out there so long you can't really time your final SE course down to SF to avoid a low. Even mid-summer.

[JPA Cate]

Here's something the mark one eyeball will show you with or without reference to predictions. The sight of something like this is what the OP needs to prepare himself and his vessel for. Ask yourself how you would handle this if you saw it 5 mi. offshore. Then, ask yourself what could possibly go wrong with your plan.

Thanks to thom225 for postiing this picture on another thread.

[Chris31415]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

For the OP . . . . take a look at https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ng-226556.html. This is a real-life demonstration of what can and cannot be done with weather forecasting on an Atlantic crossing.

Almost 1,400 posts in that thread!

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

Here's something the mark one eyeball will show you with or without reference to predictions. The sight of something like this is what the OP needs to prepare himself and his vessel for. Ask yourself how you would handle this if you saw it 5 mi. offshore. Then, ask yourself what could possibly go wrong with your plan.

Thanks to thom225 for postiing this picture on another thread.

Reminds me of sailing in the Gulf of Mexico...Ive seen similar formations there many times!

The real challenge in this case is that it is so close to shore, so not much sea room to work with. Ideally you see this from the marina and choose to stay put!

We got caught by unexpectedly severe weather off the Texas coast once and too close in for my comfort. The forecast 30 knots max turned into 60 gusting 80 knots! We were still too close in the oil patch for my comfort so continued to sail out into the Gulf under storm jib only until out into deeper water and less dense rigs, then hove to and rode the rest of it out...maintained a watch schedule to plot our drift and keep an eye out for rigs and traffic.

There were many who tried to run back to the false security of land that day...they were in the USCG reports the next day...a number of rescues of small boats who went up on the rocks trying to enter jetties in severe weather.

[JPA Cate]

Good point, belizesailor, sometimes it is far safer to head for deep water.

[Mike Banks]

Of course you can--storms are mostly seasonal as far as the really bad ones are concerned.

but you can have some pretty rotten weather turn up almost any time of year, no
matter where you are. It is just less frequent near the equator.

Because most of us sail in greater latitudes than the torrid zone of ten degrees or less, where cyclones and hurricanes are nascent or absent and only squalls happen, we are going to get squalls and often storms.

We can avoid the known cyclone and hurricane zones by moving in time to greater lattitudes such as 30th and 40th parallels...

[S/V Adeline]

The current hurricane pictured up-thread is a perfect example of weather just being weather. After days of modern day weather forecasting, instead of hitting Louisiana last night, she has apparently decided she doesn't want Cajun...looks like they were only off by 150 miles, assuming she keeps her present track.
The Queen's Birthday storm was a cyclone by every definition, except of course it was out of season and the water over which it formed was too cool to create a *cyclone*. Weather happens, modern forecasting helps you to avoid most of it but there are no guarantees.