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-   -   How to Judge Pandemic Policies (https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/f168/how-to-judge-pandemic-policies-247760.html)

GordMay 09-03-2021 05:16

How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
How to judge pandemic policies

Dozens of efforts, to track interventions to curb the spread of COVID, have gathered mountains of data. At a workshop last month, and a public conference this week, scientists involved in 50 tracking databases, met, and discussed the mammoth task of compiling and analysing these data. “We still don’t know the best way to plug the data from the tracking systems into mathematical models,” says mathematical physicist Peter Klimek. “But the trackers are a unique treasure trove, that we can use to make epidemiological modelling a data-driven science, and to prepare for the next pandemic.”

“Which are the best pandemic policies? Data trackers are trying to judge” ~ by Quirin Schiermeier
“... When many countries applied various control measures simultaneously, we knew very little about the effects of government interventions. When more data became available, we found that curfews, cancellations of small gatherings and closures of schools, shops and restaurants were among the most effective policies.
But there is less agreement, when analysing different trackers, on how to rank these measures.

For example, it is not certain that highly restrictive measures are automatically more effective, than a smart mix of comparatively modest restrictions, and better timings of their implementation.
It is difficult to untangle the effects of any given measure from those of other policy interventions. ...”
Much more https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00590-2



“Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions” ~ by Nils Haug et al
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0



“Whose coronavirus strategy worked best? Scientists hunt most effective policies”
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01248-1




“COVID-19 PHSMs Data Coverage Conference”https://phsmconference.wordpress.com/

“A Dataset of Government Interventions in Response to COVID-19"https://covid19-interventions.com/

“The Oxford Supertracker”
A global directory of over 100 policy trackers and surveys related to COVID-19. ➥ https://supertracker.spi.ox.ac.uk/

“Tracking Public Health and Social Measures”
~ WHO ➥ https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...irus-2019/phsm

thinwater 09-03-2021 05:28

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
... and to what extent do people do what they are asked?

I have assumed that one of the main reasons the US has done so poorly is that we are suborn and don't listen or do what we are told.

For example, small gatherings are a known problem, and people continued to gather away from the public eye, because they're kinna stupid that way.

For example, 70-95% of the people think a mask is to protect themselves. It is to protect the other guy.

Lake-Effect 09-03-2021 06:03

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by thinwater (Post 3360524)
... and to what extent do people do what they are asked?

I have assumed that one of the main reasons the US has done so poorly is that we are suborn and don't listen or do what we are told.

I believe there are good examples of the US pulling together as a nation in the face of crisis, so I don't think it's that. It has more to do with one party's leader deciding that his best move (for CYA and strategic reasons) was to downplay the severity of COVID and to openly mock the precautions.

But what's half a million olds, feebs and sickos, anyway? Survival of the fittest.

JPA Cate 09-03-2021 21:42

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
^^^

OUCH! My, that hurts!

Did it ever occur to you that almost half of the Americans did not vote for the abovementioned party leader, deeply regret the unnecessary deaths, and grieve for the mess our country is in?

Do you think it is helpful to post in this fashion? to stir up more Canadian contempt for all the Yanks?

Guess I better bandage my computer keys, too. :( [couldn't find a weeping emoji]

Ann

Uncle Bob 09-03-2021 21:48

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect (Post 3360544)
I believe there are good examples of the US pulling together as a nation in the face of crisis, so I don't think it's that. It has more to do with one party's leader deciding that his best move (for CYA and strategic reasons) was to downplay the severity of COVID and to openly mock the precautions.

But what's half a million olds, feebs and sickos, anyway? Survival of the fittest.


I do hope that was written with a very large serving of cynicism. :whistling:

RaymondR 10-03-2021 02:17

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect (Post 3360544)
I believe there are good examples of the US pulling together as a nation in the face of crisis, so I don't think it's that. It has more to do with one party's leader deciding that his best move (for CYA and strategic reasons) was to downplay the severity of COVID and to openly mock the precautions.

But what's half a million olds, feebs and sickos, anyway? Survival of the fittest.

There you go Gord, we don't need to muck about with that statistical nonsense in order to ascertain what was an overall best response, the science is already settled mate.

HeinSdL 10-03-2021 02:40

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
I think it's going too far. I have two kids sitting at home, one almost finishing school which is becoming a farce, the other trying to study something at a university which is effectively closed. Years, good years, being wasted here. Years which they won't get back either.

And it's just covid covid covid, that's all that matters now. For what? excess deaths are for sure positive (in NL though not in the last few weeks), but positive enough to waste all those years of youth? Doesn't that section of the population count as well?

I think if the community here (average age I estimate 50-60) could go back in time and were made to sit at home for a couple of years back when we were 18 we would be absolutely outraged.

And when the politicians say they are afraid of overrunning the hospitals: buy more ICUs. KLM received EUR4b the other day. May I ask why? Because it is the national flag carrier etc etc? (Actually the state is a large shareholder so of course the state would hate to see its investment go to waste). But EUR4b would have bought a lot of ICUs and staff, using the redundant hangars at Schiphol for space.

DumnMad 10-03-2021 02:48

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Hard to compare one country with another.
Some where the virus was late arriving were able to lock the borders and keep the virus out. e.g. NZ and Australia.
Au & NZ were in the Summer when it arrived. Europe were coming out of winter and in the Flu season.

Others like USA, UK, France, Italy etc already had many thousands spread through the country before anybody knew of its severity. New York as headquarters of international organisations didn't have a show.

On a deaths per million basis the US rate is not extreme and less than UK, Italy, Hungary, Portugal.

Lake-Effect 10-03-2021 05:20

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by JPA Cate (Post 3361298)
OUCH! My, that hurts!

Did it ever occur to you that almost half of the Americans did not vote for the abovementioned party leader, deeply regret the unnecessary deaths, and grieve for the mess our country is in?

Do you think it is helpful to post in this fashion? to stir up more Canadian contempt for all the Yanks?

Yes I was being bitterly cynical/sarcastic. And echoing some of the CF comments skeptical or dismissive of the US COVID deaths.

I don't think that most Canadian CFers have contempt for Americans; I don't, and I count myself lucky to have several American friends. But the fact that the two parties and their followers couldn't pull together even for COVID, and the seeming indifference to the death toll... confounds me.

Anyway, more on point, it might still be too early to fairly judge and compare pandemic policies... we aren't quite finished yet. I'd reserve judgment til there's near global vaccination, and travel is back.

boatman61 10-03-2021 05:32

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
The Captain Hindsight's are gathering once more.. :biggrin::biggrin::biggrin:

Lake-Effect 10-03-2021 05:56

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by HeinSdL (Post 3361364)
I think it's going too far. I have two kids sitting at home, one almost finishing school which is becoming a farce, the other trying to study something at a university which is effectively closed. Years, good years, being wasted here. Years which they won't get back either.
...
I think if the community here (average age I estimate 50-60) could go back in time and were made to sit at home for a couple of years back when we were 18 we would be absolutely outraged.

And when the politicians say they are afraid of overrunning the hospitals: buy more ICUs.

I initially had much the same thoughts around ICUs. Many would agree with your assessment that it's been too harsh, but we don't really have the fine-grained control over infection numbers that make it possible to get to "just right". So the choices really were for "too restricted" or "not restricted enough".

I definitely feel sorry for the young people who've received setbacks. If us older folks truly care for the young, we should campaign for increased numbers of apprenticeships and internships, and for more career-focused education that's inexpensive or free.

boatman61 10-03-2021 06:00

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect (Post 3361460)
I initially had much the same thoughts around ICUs. Many would agree with your assessment that it's been too harsh, but we don't really have the fine-grained control over infection numbers that make it possible to get to "just right". So the choices really were for "too restricted" or "not restricted enough".

I definitely feel sorry for the young people who've received setbacks. If us older folks truly care for the young, we should campaign for increased numbers of apprenticeships and internships, and for more career-focused education that's inexpensive or free.

I have noticed 'Social Media Influencers' have grown enormously in numbers over the past year.. :whistling:

HeinSdL 10-03-2021 06:15

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by boatman61 (Post 3361445)
The Captain Hindsight's are gathering once more.. :biggrin::biggrin::biggrin:

If only we were looking back and saying 'oh my, how we could/should have done things differently!'. We are not looking back (yet) and measures are getting more severe.

But you know, I am not the one suffering. Being in a service industry my job is quite fine, from home. My life is good so yeah what do I care. Well, I just feel damn sorry for the kids, students who can't afford to study anymore (which in any case happens solely online in their room) due to casual job having disappeared or to go out and meet new friends, small café owners who won't be opening their café anymore, women & kids suffering much more from domestic violence, the list goes on. (Do we even realise how many kids are happy to go to school or how many women like to go to community centres just to get some respite from horrific conditions at home?)

And then not to speak about new laws which have been introduced to curtail freedoms. Those laws won't be undone in a hurry.

So when we judge pandemic policies, for sure look at the infection rates & excess deaths. But also look at the costs incurred to make those successes come about.

GordMay 10-03-2021 06:22

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by boatman61 (Post 3361445)
The Captain Hindsight's are gathering once more.

"What experience and history teach is this - that people and governments never have learned anything from history, or acted on principles deduced from it." ~ G. W. F. Hegel

“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history.” ~ Aldous Huxley

They say a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, but it's not one half so bad as a lot of ignorance. In fact, gross ignorance is 144 times worse, than ordinary ignorance.
Would you have us join the church of organised ignorance? After all, why waste time learning, when ignorance is instantaneous?

HeinSdL 10-03-2021 06:42

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
I read an article just recently, which draws parallels between the covid crisis and earlier crises, with the parallel being that the current crisis (so covid) supersedes everything else and civil obedience is needed in tandem with unquestioned political leadership.


This in the name of the greater public good. Earlier example from which to learn:


The Prohibition
The Dreyfus Affair
Vietnam War
Nazi's & Communists 1920 - 1945
and others


The difference with covid though is that the public 'bad' (ie psychological damage and lost years for the youth) I mentioned in an earlier post is swept under the carpet.


This is the English version of what I read.


https://clubtroppo.com.au/2021/01/08...e-covid-mania/


By all means don't agree with a word the article says, but do keep reflecting on what is going on. This is not a good time to hand out a free pass to any government.

Dockhead 10-03-2021 07:19

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect (Post 3361460)
I initially had much the same thoughts around ICUs. Many would agree with your assessment that it's been too harsh, but we don't really have the fine-grained control over infection numbers that make it possible to get to "just right". So the choices really were for "too restricted" or "not restricted enough".. . .


Concerning ICU's, here is one more voice agreeing with you that ICU capacity is not rigidly fixed and should not be a fixed determiner of policy. Also agreeing that we don't have fine-grained control.


Sweden doubled ICU capacity in about month and managed to do prevent any shortage of ICU beds despite dealing with a nasty outbreak in April. Italy didn't quite manage it for whatever reasons.

sailorboy1 10-03-2021 07:38

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
just because the actions being taken have't reduced the spread NUMBERS doesn't mean it didn't reduce the spread that would have been if no actions were taken

We have been wearing masks for a year yet the new cases appear to have changed little. Doesn't mean masks haven't helped reduce the spread.

HeinSdL 10-03-2021 07:42

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sailorboy1 (Post 3361530)
just because the actions being taken have't reduced the spread NUMBERS doesn't mean it didn't reduce the spread that would have been if no actions were taken

We have been wearing masks for a year yet the new cases appear to have changed little. Doesn't mean masks haven't helped reduce the spread.

Oh I agree, it could have been much worse. But at the same time wearing masks wasn't all the general public was mandated to do. If only!

Just don't forget/ignore the true costs when assessing the achieved benefits.

boatman61 10-03-2021 07:50

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by GordMay (Post 3361476)
"What experience and history teach is this - that people and governments never have learned anything from history, or acted on principles deduced from it." ~ G. W. F. Hegel

“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history.” ~ Aldous Huxley

They say a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, but it's not one half so bad as a lot of ignorance. In fact, gross ignorance is 144 times worse, than ordinary ignorance.
Would you have us join the church of organised ignorance? After all, why waste time learning, when ignorance is instantaneous?

Here we go.. no one is advocating ignorance and I am sick and tired of you lot accusing me of this.. all we have here is a group of holier than thou's calling out what has happened and how it could have been done better.. all over something no one knew anything about and many saw as a varient of the SAR's which appeared and dissappeared in the space of months..
Yet no one calls out Merkel or Macron for the aspersions cast on the AstraZeneca vaccine which has resulted in millions of vaccines lying in storage because populations are refusing to take them up thanks to statements like "Not effectual for +65yr olds" (Merkel) and "Efficacy may be as low as 8%" (Macron) ..
AstraZeneca in the UK has proved effective in all ages groups and is also showing good effecacy with varients as well.. something Phizer and Moderna it seems is not.
The latest is Italy and the EU is blocking 500K AstraZeneca vaccines being shipped to Australia despite having 1.2 million refused vaccines sitting in Italy alone..
The US is now trashing Sputnick V because so many countries are taking it up as along with AstraZeneca it can be stored in an ordinary fridge instead of -70C special containers so profit and dominance of the market has crumbled..
We have a Blame Game going on in a short lived Empire and a Wanna Be one..
That should keep you Googling for a while.. :wink:

Dockhead 10-03-2021 07:52

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sailorboy1 (Post 3361530)
just because the actions being taken have't reduced the spread NUMBERS doesn't mean it didn't reduce the spread that would have been if no actions were taken

We have been wearing masks for a year yet the new cases appear to have changed little. Doesn't mean masks haven't helped reduce the spread.


That's not how they analyzed the effectiveness of measures. You should read the studies.

Dockhead 10-03-2021 07:55

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by HeinSdL (Post 3361532)
. . . Just don't forget/ignore the true costs when assessing the achieved benefits.


:thumb: Like with any policy decision. That's basically Policymaking 101.

HeinSdL 10-03-2021 08:01

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
I have some friends in The Hague, a couple, she a piano teacher teaching in a local community centre, he an events organizer. Before covid they were more or less getting by, now they are truly broken, psychologically.


Just a random tiny sample which obviously is repeated world wide in the 100's of millions. I really assure those following this thread, there is no holier than thou intention here, just a suggestion that the costs of containment are so much higher than we can possibly imagine. And I have this niggling feeling that the government(s) know(s) very well what is going on.


Edit: didn't mean to be harping on about this right after DH's post.

Dockhead 10-03-2021 08:01

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by GordMay (Post 3360519)
How to judge pandemic policies
Dozens of efforts, to track interventions to curb the spread of COVID, have gathered mountains of data. At a workshop last month, and a public conference this week, scientists involved in 50 tracking databases, met, and discussed the mammoth task of compiling and analysing these data. “We still don’t know the best way to plug the data from the tracking systems into mathematical models,” says mathematical physicist Peter Klimek. “But the trackers are a unique treasure trove, that we can use to make epidemiological modelling a data-driven science, and to prepare for the next pandemic.”

“Which are the best pandemic policies? Data trackers are trying to judge” ~ by Quirin Schiermeier
“... When many countries applied various control measures simultaneously, we knew very little about the effects of government interventions. When more data became available, we found that curfews, cancellations of small gatherings and closures of schools, shops and restaurants were among the most effective policies.
But there is less agreement, when analysing different trackers, on how to rank these measures.

For example, it is not certain that highly restrictive measures are automatically more effective, than a smart mix of comparatively modest restrictions, and better timings of their implementation.
It is difficult to untangle the effects of any given measure from those of other policy interventions. ...”
Much more https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00590-2

For those of us who have been following the pandemic closely, and studying epidemiology, thinking about pandemic measures, and discussing on here and elsewhere, I think this is the single most interesting study yet seen, with a very sophisticated (including for the first time I've ever seen analysis of the inter-dependence between different combinations of measures) analysis of the effectiveness of different pandemic measures and different combinations of them.

Some of our discussions have been very contentious; for suggesting circumspection with regard to the strictest NPI's, some of what I have posted has been subjected to really excoriating attacks by people who consider any question about whether or not the strictest measures should be even discussed, to be equivalent to some kind of treason.

But the science more and more, and especially in this study, does support the idea that we should be careful about what measures we choose, and that it is entirely appropriate to question whether some measures might do more harm than good.


I'm glad LakeEffect is participating in this discussion, because I think he was initially one of the ones who was outraged by my questions, although we ended up understanding each other better after long and sometimes difficult discussions, and respecting one another's points of view at least to some extent.

I quote from the study:

"Figure 4 shows an example of the results for a selection of NPIs (see Supplementary Information for a more extensive report on other NPIs). Each curve shows the average change in Rt versus the adoption time of the NPI, averaged over the countries where that NPI has been adopted. Figure 4a refers to the national lockdown (including stay-at-home order implemented in US states). Our results show a moderate effect of this NPI (low change in Rt)
as compared to other, less drastic, measures
."

This means that the science is showing that lockdowns have "low change in Rt", that is, relatively little effect on spread of the virus.

". . . However, such radical measures have adverse consequences. School closure interrupts learning and can lead to poor nutrition, stress and social isolation in children31–33. Home confinement has strongly increased the rate of domestic violence in many countries, with a huge impact on women and children34,35, while it has also limited the access to long-term care such as chemotherapy, with substantial impacts on patients’ health and survival chance36,37.
Governments may have to look towards less stringent measures, encompassing maximum effective prevention but enabling an acceptable balance between benefits and drawbacks
. . . Previous statistical studies on the effectiveness of lockdowns came to mixed conclusions."

I was viciously attacked for saying more or less this same thing; I was even accused at one point of being "incapable of love" :D But balancing benefits and drawbacks is inherent to all policymaking, even if suggesting doing that with regard to lockdowns was greeted with a furious reaction in some of our discussions.

". . . Indeed, the national lockdown encompasses multiple NPIs (for example, closure of land, sea and air borders, closure of schools, non-essential shops and prohibition of gatherings and visiting nursing homes) that countries may have already adopted in parts. From this perspective, the relatively attenuated impact of the national lockdown is explained as the little delta after other concurrent NPIs have been adopted. This conclusion does not rule out the effectiveness of an early national lockdown, but suggests that a suitable combination (sequence and time of implementation) of a smaller package of such measures can substitute for a full lockdown in terms of effectiveness, while reducing adverse impacts on society, the economy, the humanitarian response system and the environment".

This sounds right to me. First of all, the "relatively attenuated impact of the national lockdown" lines up with the conclusions of the peer-reviewed Stanford University study here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...1111/eci.13484, where it was stated: "While modest decreases in daily growth (under 30%) cannot be excluded in a few countries, the possibility of large decreases in daily growth due to mrNPIs ["Most Restrictive NPIs" -- lockdown] is incompatible with the accumulated data."

This furthermore lines up with World Health Organization advice, which for some time now has been discouraging countries from implementing lockdowns "except as a last resort".

And lastly lines up with the actual experience of countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Nordic countries, which achieved quite good results without implementing lockdown.

That's a lot of lining up.

Concerning other things in this study:

I was very sorry to read that they found that school closings are more effective than previously thought (and that conversely open schools are more harmful than previously thought). Closing schools causes almost as much harm as lockdown, incalculable and long-lasting harm to young people. Several studies carried out here indicated that schools are not a major vector of contagion, which helped justify the decision in all the Nordic countries which had closed them (in Sweden only high school and unis were closed), to quickly reopen at least primary schools.

If this study is right (and it looks to me like the most sophisticated and best one done to date, so I would tend to believe it), then keeping schools open looks like a harder decision, than it did before :(

Pelagic 10-03-2021 08:08

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Fear, politics and anger has polarised thinking....

This reminds me of the poem I learned as a Scottish schoolboy
"To a Mouse'

COVID is the plough and we are the field mice.

"The best laid schemes of mice and men Go often askew,
And leave us nothing but grief and pain, For promised joy!"

You just have to roll with it and try to have solidarity with those "at risk" to eradicate COVID rather than just manage it !

https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_a_Mouse

boatman61 10-03-2021 08:18

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Something to cheer up and inspire the 'Desperate Youths'..
The founder of an online fashion firm who started out working at Burger King is in line to make a £35million fortune.

Adam Frisby, 33, who left school with no qualifications, used £1,000 to set-up the venture from his bedroom in 2013.

Eight years later and In The Style, a celebrity fast fashion website, is set to float on the stock market with a price tag of £105million.

Mr Frisby, who owns more than third of the business, is expected to net £12million from selling some of his stake.

He will still be left with a holding worth £23million at the start of trading.

Dockhead 10-03-2021 08:24

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by HeinSdL (Post 3361553)
I have some friends in The Hague, a couple, she a piano teacher teaching in a local community centre, he an events organizer. Before covid they were more or less getting by, now they are truly broken, psychologically.

Just a random tiny sample which obviously is repeated world wide in the 100's of millions. I really assure those following this thread, there is no holier than thou intention here, just a suggestion that the costs of containment are so much higher than we can possibly imagine. And I have this niggling feeling that the government(s) know(s) very well what is going on.. . .

But you are obviously right. I personally know someone who attempted suicide after his business was ruined by lockdown.

The World Health Organization (not exactly a lunatic fringe right-wing organization, right?) says the following:

"Large scale physical distancing measures and movement restrictions, often referred to as ‘lockdowns’, can slow COVID‑19 transmission by limiting contact between people. However, these measures can have a profound negative impact on individuals, communities, and societies by bringing social and economic life to a near stop. Such measures disproportionately affect disadvantaged groups, including people in poverty, migrants, internally displaced people and refugees, who most often live in overcrowded and under resourced settings, and depend on daily labour for subsistence. WHO recognizes that at certain points, some countries have had no choice but to issue stay-at-home orders and other measures, to buy time."

It's easy for educated middle class white guys, and especially retired people who don't even need to work now, to sit back and tell everyone that they must be locked in their homes for months. And God forbid that anyone would suggest doing any cost-benefit analysis on that policy.

If you're young and poor or marginally educated (and 2/3 of the U.S. population does not have even a bachelor's degree), the cost of lockdown looks very, very different, than it does to us.

See here:

Attachment 234239
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ographics.html


I contend that it is exceptionally selfish for people like us, who have not suffered economically from lockdown and who because of our age are 10x or 100x more vulnerable to the virus, than younger people, to insist that younger, poorer, less educated people many of whom are not vulnerable to the virus, should lose their jobs by the millions just to provide some small increment of extra protection for us (and the science shows, more and more, that that small increment is small indeed).

Lake-Effect 10-03-2021 08:26

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dockhead (Post 3361554)
I'm glad LakeEffect is participating in this discussion, because I think he was initially one of the ones who was outraged by my questions, although we ended up understanding each other better after long and sometimes difficult discussions, and respecting one another's points of view at least to some extent.

Thanks for the shout-out DH.

To me the only no-brainer that has become clearer is that most countries should have hit the pandemic early and hard. But there is also lots of learning about what did and didn't work later on, which is good. Maybe the WHO or similar could take all this in and formulate some future pandemic "prescriptions" that incorporate all this learning.

To regroup a little bit - I don't think we're completely done yet, but we can see the end of the tunnel (vaccination). As well, we are much better at treatment and most countries are no longer experiencing as much stress on their healthcare system. So, with the pandemic itself mostly in-hand, NOW is the time to start addressing the predicted collateral harms that have not yet been realized.
  • a concerted effort to help school-age kids catch up and maintain their educational path
  • enhanced efforts to get young people's careers back on track - more apprenticeships and internships, more help with tuition, some money to support them while retraining. I believe/hope that some companies will themselves step up, but if necessary there should be government inducements - eg any government aid to business (tax breaks, loan guarantees, etc) should carry an obligation to provide more entry level positions and apprenticeships
  • something (eg low-interest or forgivable loans) to help small businesses get up and running again (with added rewards for hiring)
  • help healthcare deal quickly with backlogs of delayed care.
I also believe in the resilience of most people, especially if they feel optimistic about the future and that society isn't just going to leave them to flail about.

sailorboy1 10-03-2021 08:51

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dockhead (Post 3361544)
That's not how they analyzed the effectiveness of measures. You should read the studies.

If I do does that then mean all my forum comments move up to "expert" status and allow me to quote and counter others?

I never I never of should never have even looked at this "boating" thread :facepalm:

HeinSdL 10-03-2021 09:07

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
I think it's OK to have the occasional covid discussion here. Regardless of our interests (in our specific case, sailing/cruising) developing a healthy level of consciousness in relation to our current predicament (meaning an informed opinion, whatever that opinion might be) will pay dividends later on.

thinwater 10-03-2021 09:22

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Most sailors on this forum have a feeling for the concept of doing the job right. We didn't do this right. Not even close.



It has been said, and the science and practice in hospitals supports this, that if we have choked down with 100% (not 90%) mask wear and proper hygiene for 2 weeks at any point, an epidemic can be choked out. But we couldn't do it because that's "too restrictive." Yet if I tell people they will wear hardhats and respirators in a work setting all day, they will (or they will leave... and some will be fired).



People don't listen unless the guidance is crystal clear. No mincing words. And then some percentage won't listen anyway, at least not out of the public eye.



And what's with noses sticking out? You might as well wear a pointed hat on your head, because it says "I'm stupid." And what about masks that don't fit? You only had months and months to fix that. Either you didn't care or didn't think, and neither is forgivable in audults.


[Now you know how I feel :flowers:]



https://im-media.voltron.voanews.com...?itok=1kcn9xlD

boatman61 10-03-2021 09:36

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by thinwater (Post 3361608)
Most sailors on this forum have a feeling for the concept of doing the job right. We didn't do this right. Not even close.



It has been said, and the science and practice in hospitals supports this, that if we have choked down with 100% (not 90%) mask wear and proper hygiene for 2 weeks at any point, an epidemic can be choked out. But we couldn't do it because that's "too restrictive." Yet if I tell people they will wear hardhats and respirators in a work setting all day, they will (or they will leave... and some will be fired).



People don't listen unless the guidance is crystal clear. No mincing words. And then some percentage won't listen anyway, at least not out of the public eye.



And what's with noses sticking out? You might as well wear a pointed hat on your head, because it says "I'm stupid." And what about masks that don't fit? You only had months and months to fix that. Either you didn't care or didn't think, and neither is forgivable in audults.


[Now you know how I feel :flowers:]



https://im-media.voltron.voanews.com...?itok=1kcn9xlD

It was not done because there were not enough masks, then China exported tons of useless masks because everyone relies on same day orders these days instead of stock piles as of yore, Fauci and others round the world said they were ineffective and not needed.. before a votle-face..
Anyway.. like testing, effectiveness is still unproven.

Dockhead 10-03-2021 09:50

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sailorboy1 (Post 3361581)
If I do does that then mean all my forum comments move up to "expert" status and allow me to quote and counter others?

I never I never of should never have even looked at this "boating" thread :facepalm:


Well, it's up to you. You were the one who came into this thread. You are very welcome to participate. No one has "expert" status; we are just a bunch of cruisers chewing the fat.

Lake-Effect 10-03-2021 10:00

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by boatman61 (Post 3361614)
It was not done because there were not enough masks, then China exported tons of useless masks because everyone relies on same day orders these days instead of stock piles as of yore, Fauci and others round the world said they were ineffective and not needed.. before a votle-face..
Anyway.. like testing, effectiveness is still unproven.


Why oh why is this misinformation still circulating? :rolleyes:

The initial fear was over shortage of N95 masks, which were needed by health-care providers and other people on the front lines.

Authorities later moved to recommend the wearing of plain old disposable or cloth masks because they would greatly reduce the amount of virus-containing moisture spewed forth by asymptomatic and presymptomatic infected wearers. And since such people don't know they're infected, you need to ask EVERYONE to wear one when around other people.

Effectiveness? Try blowing out a candle with one. If you can't, or it's harder, you've just shown it would be effective at the above purpose.

Dockhead 10-03-2021 10:02

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by thinwater (Post 3361608)
. . . People don't listen unless the guidance is crystal clear. No mincing words. And then some percentage won't listen anyway, at least not out of the public eye.

Agreed. And to be fair -- the public were lied to about masks at first (by the CDC and even by the good Dr. F.!) because the authorities feared a run on supplies when they were needed for medical professionals. This kind of manipulation really erodes public trust.

Then to make matters worse, the science on the value of ordinary medical masks was not clear, and I think is still not entirely clear.

So it's a mess. I think next time around we need:

1. Adequate stockpiles of real N95 respirators WITHOUT VALVES :banghead:. And we wear those, not hospital masks.

2. CLEAR instructions and policies, prepared ahead of time and not made up on the spot and then waffled on.

Quote:

Originally Posted by thinwater (Post 3361608)
And what's with noses sticking out? You might as well wear a pointed hat on your head, because it says "I'm stupid."

:D :thumb:

Dockhead 10-03-2021 10:06

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect (Post 3361570)
Thanks for the shout-out DH.

To me the only no-brainer that has become clearer is that most countries should have hit the pandemic early and hard. But there is also lots of learning about what did and didn't work later on, which is good. Maybe the WHO or similar could take all this in and formulate some future pandemic "prescriptions" that incorporate all this learning.

To regroup a little bit - I don't think we're completely done yet, but we can see the end of the tunnel (vaccination). As well, we are much better at treatment and most countries are no longer experiencing as much stress on their healthcare system. So, with the pandemic itself mostly in-hand, NOW is the time to start addressing the predicted collateral harms that have not yet been realized.
  • a concerted effort to help school-age kids catch up and maintain their educational path
  • enhanced efforts to get young people's careers back on track - more apprenticeships and internships, more help with tuition, some money to support them while retraining. I believe/hope that some companies will themselves step up, but if necessary there should be government inducements - eg any government aid to business (tax breaks, loan guarantees, etc) should carry an obligation to provide more entry level positions and apprenticeships
  • something (eg low-interest or forgivable loans) to help small businesses get up and running again (with added rewards for hiring)
  • help healthcare deal quickly with backlogs of delayed care.
I also believe in the resilience of most people, especially if they feel optimistic about the future and that society isn't just going to leave them to flail about.

Nothing to disagree with in the proposed measures.

Believe in resilience of people, but believe also in the immense harm which has been done to people whose experiences and situations are very different from ours and which may be hard for us to imagine.

We need to do better next time. We need to have a comprehensive and really well worked out plan to deal with anything like this which happens in the future, which avoids unnecessary damage of this type.

RaymondR 10-03-2021 11:18

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
My prediction is that there will be no conclusive results from any of these studies.

Each of the proponents will hire their own experts to provide them with the results most supportive of their responses and the controversies will proliferate.

DumnMad 10-03-2021 12:45

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RaymondR (Post 3361715)
My prediction is that there will be no conclusive results from any of these studies.

Each of the proponents will hire their own experts to provide them with the results most supportive of their responses and the controversies will proliferate.

Agree. They mostly talk of policies that slow down the spread and much of the population shows no symptoms and is untested. No way to have an effective study. Death rates/ million population tell us something but even then most died due to their underlying condition.

I think a country's annual "all-cause death rates" might show a few lumps that can only be explained by covids but even then not very significant compared to heart disease and and other obesity related sickness.

Azul 10-03-2021 14:46

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
The Event 201 scenario: (excerpted from October 2020, sponsored by the WEF Davos crowd who must be psychic)

Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modeled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms. Sound familiar???

UN Agenda 21- signed by 193 countries in 1992, its objectives have been greatly aided by the covid response


Bill Gates to Xi 2015: I hope the world doesn't have a pandemic with coronavirus in the future. We will work together to get China out of poverty by 2020. You can hear the words come out of this hairless-cat psychopath for yourself. Along with "I believe there should only be 500 million people on the planet." Educate yourself about this so called "kindly philanthropist" that is a big believer in eugenics.

Fauci circa 2017: I hope the Trump administration doesn't have to deal with a pandemic

mRNA virus- changes your DNA, does not prevent transmission or infection, previous attempts on animals killed all the animals due to antibody dependent enhancement upon reexposure to native coronavirus

Thousands of patents since 2003 on coronavirus, literally every imaginable way to make money on the virus. Even though in the US it is illegal to patent natural viruses and germ warfare to change viruses in the lab. Somehow the CDC and WHO got exemptions...

Practically all speech about vaccines, the overblown reaction to the virus, possible effective treatments for the virus (look up budesonide for, one year ago a doctor was scathingly attacked for recommending it but Oxford just declared this $3 treatment would have prevented 95% of deaths in their randomized trial) has been censored

The US just approved another $1.9 trillion in "stimulus" or about $6000 for every man, woman and child but is giving out $1400 to people that filed a recent tax return

40% of all the currency ever printed by the US government was printed in 2020

This will be shown to be the biggest crime ever committed in the history of the world, planned in advance to create the biggest transfer of wealth in history by the elites using the WHO, WEF, CDC, and politicians as puppets, and perhaps to create a diversion for another ending cycle of fiat currency

Quarantines for healthy people? Really? The average age of death from covid is 83, or more precisely died with covid

The all causes death rate in the US for most of the year was better than any year since 2009. Influenza, pneumonia, influenza-like illness almost disappeared.

The PCR test was never intended to be used on patients, and even Klaus Schwab of the WEF has publicly bragged that by altering the cycle threshold the results can be twisted to show that social distancing and masks help, or that the infection is getting worse. Local hospitals are running the test at 42 cycle thresholds when anything over 30ish leads to dramatic false positives

A mask has been traditionally used as a sign to mark slaves

As a scientist, biologist, and professional that treated at least 100,000 more patients than Fauci I am calling ******** on the vast majority of what my government has told me in the last year. Covid is about controlling us. Since there is a script for what is going on that you can actually read on the Johns Hopkins University website, this goldrush is planned to go on until 2025 at which time they plan to start the new pandemic "Spars"

boatman61 10-03-2021 15:55

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect (Post 3361632)
Why oh why is this misinformation still circulating? :rolleyes:

The initial fear was over shortage of N95 masks, which were needed by health-care providers and other people on the front lines.

Authorities later moved to recommend the wearing of plain old disposable or cloth masks because they would greatly reduce the amount of virus-containing moisture spewed forth by asymptomatic and presymptomatic infected wearers. And since such people don't know they're infected, you need to ask EVERYONE to wear one when around other people.

Effectiveness? Try blowing out a candle with one. If you can't, or it's harder, you've just shown it would be effective at the above purpose.

I think DH's already answered this satisfactorily already I'll leave it at that.. :thumb:

Lake-Effect 10-03-2021 16:04

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by boatman61 (Post 3361896)
I think DH's already answered this satisfactorily already I'll leave it at that.. :thumb:


Well, DH might be mistaken about that as well. But you can judge for yourself.

Here are some of the other mask myths, dissected.


Anyway it's all a hoax. But we made you all wear masks for almost a year and everyone looked really silly. LOL.


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