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-   -   How to Judge Pandemic Policies (https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/f168/how-to-judge-pandemic-policies-247760.html)

belizesailor 27-03-2021 11:35

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect (Post 3360544)
I believe there are good examples of the US pulling together as a nation in the face of crisis, so I don't think it's that. It has more to do with one party's leader deciding that his best move (for CYA and strategic reasons) was to downplay the severity of COVID and to openly mock the precautions.

But what's half a million olds, feebs and sickos, anyway? Survival of the fittest.

COVID aint one of them.

belizesailor 27-03-2021 11:40

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by HeinSdL (Post 3361364)
I think it's going too far. I have two kids sitting at home, one almost finishing school which is becoming a farce, the other trying to study something at a university which is effectively closed. Years, good years, being wasted here. Years which they won't get back either.

And it's just covid covid covid, that's all that matters now. For what? excess deaths are for sure positive (in NL though not in the last few weeks), but positive enough to waste all those years of youth? Doesn't that section of the population count as well?

I think if the community here (average age I estimate 50-60) could go back in time and were made to sit at home for a couple of years back when we were 18 we would be absolutely outraged.

And when the politicians say they are afraid of overrunning the hospitals: buy more ICUs. KLM received EUR4b the other day. May I ask why? Because it is the national flag carrier etc etc? (Actually the state is a large shareholder so of course the state would hate to see its investment go to waste). But EUR4b would have bought a lot of ICUs and staff, using the redundant hangars at Schiphol for space.

Yeah, whats a few more dead bodies to quell teenage angst.

Dockhead 29-03-2021 10:09

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
An excellent article:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...?sref=XcONO5zf

"Virus Keeps Refusing to Follow Anyone’s Partisan Script" by Ramesh Ponnuru


"The more partisan the narrative, the worse it has fared. "



". . . But there’s another complication in these cross-country comparisons: We don’t really know what causes some countries to suffer more or less than others, even if we assume that all the data is equally trustworthy. Siddhartha Mukherjee reports in The New Yorker: “For many statisticians, virologists, and public-health experts, the regional disparities in covid-19 mortality represent the greatest conundrum of the pandemic.”



Here, here. After a year, finally some common, objective sense.

Dockhead 29-03-2021 10:27

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by belizesailor (Post 3374671)
Yeah, whats a few more dead bodies to quell teenage angst.


The loss of months of education should not be trivialized as "teenage angst". In fact it is immensely destructive.



https://www.spiegel.de/international...c-940e72ab03a9


"The dire consequences of the school closures affect 60 percent of all schoolchildren in developing countries. Already, an additional 150 million children have fallen back into poverty as a result of the pandemic, and for many of them, schools aren't just places where they learn something. They are places to socialize and where they develop as citizens. They are safe there from domestic violence and some even get medical care at school. And for millions of children from the slums of Kenya, for example, school was the place where they ate their main meal of the day."

valhalla360 29-03-2021 10:30

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat (Post 3374257)
For me personally, reasonably young and healthy, living in Australia where community transmission is near zero, and living the cruising lifestyle, Covid poses little risk.

Therefore the vaccine offers little potential beneft. ie, I'm extremely unlikely to catch Covid, and even if I did, it's unlikely I'd get sick from it.

So I'm happy enough to wait and see for a while.

The challenge with Australia is what is the exit strategy. Mostly, you've been protected by isolation to date and when the whole world is shut down, the pain is at least in some ways equal (or at least it can be sold as such).

At some point when the isolation ends, if most of the population feels the same way, you are likely to see a major flare up while the rest of the world is exiting the pandemic and on their way to a return to normal.

Of course, I think most countries would rather have this problem but it could drag out the pandemic and related collateral damage for Australia.

valhalla360 29-03-2021 10:44

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by belizesailor (Post 3374671)
Yeah, whats a few more dead bodies to quell teenage angst.

This is a big part of the problem with the discussion. Anyone who doesn't agree you is vilified.

How about our friends who's son killed himself and all signs point to the frustration over remote learning and isolation from his friends...just a bit of "teen angst"?

We need to consider all the factors. Age of those killed/impacted is an important factor. No one wants to "kill grandma" but there is a difference between losing a healthy 18yr old vs a 90yr old in hospice and a kid who get passed out of pity to graduate high school, is likely never going to recover that lost learning. It will impact him for the next 60yrs.

Luckily, the one thing our leaders did get right was accelerating the vaccine development programs. In a lot of ways this goes beyond the "moon shot" and we are likely to see benefits for decades to come. There is now a path out of the pandemic.

Dockhead 29-03-2021 11:01

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by valhalla360 (Post 3376099)
. . . Luckily, the one thing our leaders did get right was accelerating the vaccine development programs. In a lot of ways this goes beyond the "moon shot" and we are likely to see benefits for decades to come. There is now a path out of the pandemic.

Indeed; it's a miracle. Don't know who deserves credit for that, but probably there is a lot of credit to go around -- government initiative, the particular managers (like Moncef Mohamed Slaoui), the big pharma companies and the incredible technological and manufacturing capabilities they have, and the scientists around the world who did all the basic research which made this feat possible.

It really is a "moon shot" kind of deal and we can thank our lucky stars. Ending the pandemic just a few months earlier than it might otherwise have been ended just right there makes an immense difference in the damage caused. The effect on the working poor and on schoolchildren, particularly poor children, is absolutely devastating, something not much considered by those who advocated (does anyone still?) just locking down tight for however long and damn the cost, and excoriate anyone who dares to question it; something the World Health Organization, for example, clearly does not advocate.

Like you I know someone who attempted suicide (and damn near succeeded) as a consequence of lockdown. All I can say is that thanks to the vaccines and all the good people who played different roles in making them happen so fast, this godawful nightmare is almost over.

Dockhead 29-03-2021 11:09

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by valhalla360 (Post 3376091)
The challenge with Australia is what is the exit strategy. Mostly, you've been protected by isolation to date and when the whole world is shut down, the pain is at least in some ways equal (or at least it can be sold as such).

At some point when the isolation ends, if most of the population feels the same way, you are likely to see a major flare up while the rest of the world is exiting the pandemic and on their way to a return to normal.

Of course, I think most countries would rather have this problem but it could drag out the pandemic and related collateral damage for Australia.


My guess about Australia is that the isolation will be continued through the end of the year, by which time the pace of vaccination will accelerate greatly and they will manage to get the population to a sufficient level of immunity that they can declare victory.


The Australian isolation is vastly less costly to society and the economy than repeated lockdowns like in France or California, but still costly enough -- may still destroy travel and airline and some other related industries, which might not be saveable after 1 1/2 years of shutdown.


Vaccination goes slowly in Oz but I think it will go through an immense acceleration in the next couple of months as supplies come in. Manufacturing around the world has been hugely ramped up and the U.S. is now facing a glut of vaccines. There should be plenty to go around in the next few months. I guess the Antipodians will get themselves vaccinated before Christmas, but they may have a bleak winter ahead; plus with such a vulnerable population there will likely be some outbreaks. But at the end of the day my guess is that Australia will be judged to have gotten off easily compared to most other places.

valhalla360 29-03-2021 16:24

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dockhead (Post 3376121)
My guess about Australia is that the isolation will be continued through the end of the year, by which time the pace of vaccination will accelerate greatly and they will manage to get the population to a sufficient level of immunity that they can declare victory.


The Australian isolation is vastly less costly to society and the economy than repeated lockdowns like in France or California, but still costly enough -- may still destroy travel and airline and some other related industries, which might not be saveable after 1 1/2 years of shutdown.


Vaccination goes slowly in Oz but I think it will go through an immense acceleration in the next couple of months as supplies come in. Manufacturing around the world has been hugely ramped up and the U.S. is now facing a glut of vaccines. There should be plenty to go around in the next few months. I guess the Antipodians will get themselves vaccinated before Christmas, but they may have a bleak winter ahead; plus with such a vulnerable population there will likely be some outbreaks. But at the end of the day my guess is that Australia will be judged to have gotten off easily compared to most other places.

I wasn't referring to the supply side but the acceptance. If they are resistant to the vaccine since they largely were bypassed...do they suddenly have a huge surge when they go to open up.

In other countries where there may be 20-40% with immunity due to infection, it mitigates if a percentage don't want the vaccine (though not ideal). Example: if the USA has 40% via infection and immunizes 50% of the population, that should be somewhere around 70% immunity. That's getting up to herd immunity where it burns out on it's own.

On the other hand, if Australia has really kept it under control (and it appears they have), they likely only have a base level of immunity of a percentage point or two. 50% vaccinated would only be around 50-51% immunity. That is below what most suggest for herd immunity, so if they hit a limit on acceptance, do they give up and open up?

Dockhead 29-03-2021 16:40

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by valhalla360 (Post 3376348)
I wasn't referring to the supply side but the acceptance. If they are resistant to the vaccine since they largely were bypassed...do they suddenly have a huge surge when they go to open up.

In other countries where there may be 20-40% with immunity due to infection, it mitigates if a percentage don't want the vaccine (though not ideal). Example: if the USA has 40% via infection and immunizes 50% of the population, that should be somewhere around 70% immunity. That's getting up to herd immunity where it burns out on it's own.

On the other hand, if Australia has really kept it under control (and it appears they have), they likely only have a base level of immunity of a percentage point or two. 50% vaccinated would only be around 50-51% immunity. That is below what most suggest for herd immunity, so if they hit a limit on acceptance, do they give up and open up?


I think you're right, and I alluded to that when I mentioned the vulnerability of the population.


And yet I am somewhat optimistic -- we've seen vaccine hesitation melt away in these parts, and I guess it won't be different in Oz. I reckon by Christmas they will have herd immunity levels of immunity, even without the natural advantage of natural immunity.

GordMay 09-05-2021 04:17

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
India: ‘A self-inflicted national catastrophe’

COVID-19 deaths in India could potentially reach one million, by August 1 this year, an editorial [1], published in medical journal the ‘Lancet’ said, citing an estimate [2] by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation [IHME]; an independent global health research centre of the University of Washington.
If that outcome were to happen, [Prime Minister Narendra] Modi’s government would be responsible for presiding over “a self-inflicted national catastrophe,” it said.

[1] “India's COVID-19 emergency” ~ by The Lancet
Editorial ➥ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...052-7/fulltext

[2] “COVID-19 Projections: India” ~ by IHME
https://covid19.healthdata.org/india...aths&tab=trend

Group9 09-05-2021 05:58

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Covid policies have killed a lot of people, too. My mother, in a home for dementia, died this summer, alone, because, of policies that forbade us from visiting her for several months before she died.

I can only imagine the confusion, and sorrow on her part, wondering why everyone had abandoned her.

But, at least the Covid 19 didn't kill her, right?

Group9 09-05-2021 06:01

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by GordMay (Post 3374025)
So, are you betting that, if the local coroner, and the CDC find that the woman's death was not caused by the Covid vaccine, it must prove that the CDC is whitewashing the event?
Or, are you betting that the death wasn't caused by the vaccine, and the CDC will [accurately] so find?
Either way, I think you're engaging in a premature speculation.

Oh, I think you know exactly what I'm talking about. And, you know I'm going to be right.

GordMay 09-05-2021 07:43

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Group9 (Post 3403661)
Oh, I think you know exactly what I'm talking about. And, you know I'm going to be right.

Actually, I don't - which is why I asked the question.
Sorry, for your loss.

Lake-Effect 09-05-2021 07:59

Re: How to Judge Pandemic Policies
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Group9 (Post 3403658)
Covid policies have killed a lot of people, too. My mother, in a home for dementia, died this summer, alone, because, of policies that forbade us from visiting her for several months before she died.

I can only imagine the confusion, and sorrow on her part, wondering why everyone had abandoned her.

But, at least the Covid 19 didn't kill her, right?

We're of course sorry for the loss of your mother. A particularly poignant loss to contemplate on Mother's Day.

One thing that gets missed in most of these assessments is... Ok, what if precautions hadn't been as stringent as they have been? In the US, with what responses were taken, there still have been close to 600,000 COVID deaths (most of whom were in your Mom's age bracket). So, tell us what the responses should have been, and how many more COVID deaths you were willing to tolerate in exchange for less restrictions.

... and of course no one can or will make such an assessment. Mainly because it's impossible. There are so many uncontrollable variants on both sides of the question. Especially on the response side of the equation; it's not possible to accurately predict the collateral effects of planned restrictions. The only thing that's close to predictable is that if/when COVID spread increases, it does so exponentially and so do hospitalizations and deaths. So breakouts need to be knocked down ASAP.

We've hopefully learned enough from this go-round that we will be a lot earlier and harder in acting against any future pandemic, and we will have a better idea of what measures work and at what collateral cost.


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