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-   -   The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years (https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/f158/the-hurricane-prediction-is-for-the-strongest-in-70-years-199122.html)

puffcard 24-03-2018 06:04

The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Looks like it could be another devastating year for hurricanes. It seems like they're saying that every other year. Hoping they're wrong, everybody needs a break after last year.

https://721news.com/top-story/2018-hurricane-prediction-strongest-cycle-70-years/

SSgtPitt 24-03-2018 06:56

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
And for only $97.97 you can purchase the Basic forecast for yourself. Of course the packages go up from there, $299 with webinar.

boatman61 24-03-2018 07:28

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
LMAO.. :biggrin:

J Clark H356 24-03-2018 08:30

The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Yeah and by now where I used to vacation in Florida was supposed to be under water, the Arctic Ocean ice melted and I just heard this morning an Asteroid is heading straight for us and will get her in 2035! With all these expert forecasts, I think I’m going to go put my boat on the market.

jimbunyard 24-03-2018 08:59

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Another 'scientist-for-hire'.

If


"The preseason zone predictions are so accurate – updates to the forecasts are not required during the hurricane season." 721News


why don't the worlds' meteorological services just disband and buy their information directly from Global Weather Oscillations? (that's a rhetorical question, in case anyone out there has conspiratorial tendencies)

With a fairly cursory search (25 minutes), I could find no what-I would-call-credible sources that support the claims for accuracy made by GWO themselves.


Here is the GWO 2018 forecast, synopsized by NBC2 (Ft. Myers, I believe).

"Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 - but some hurricane landfalls will occur in different locations this year. You can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms. And once again – some Caribbean Islands will have another dangerous season."


Seems a bit like reading your horoscope...

grantmc 24-03-2018 10:10

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbunyard (Post 2602993)
Another 'scientist-for-hire'.
Here is the GWO 2018 forecast, synopsized by NBC2 (Ft. Myers, I believe).

"Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 - but some hurricane landfalls will occur in different locations this year. You can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms. And once again – some Caribbean Islands will have another dangerous season."


Seems a bit like reading your horoscope...

I predict those Atlantic storms will be called:

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

Bean Counter 24-03-2018 10:28

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Probably if you took the average for the last 100 years it might come in somewhere close to the forecast.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlant...nes_per_season

RaymondR 24-03-2018 10:48

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
This years cyclone (hurricane) season in Australia has bought about four during the last month or so, all of them along the northern coast, but none earlier in the season.

CaptTom 24-03-2018 12:30

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Professor David Dilley, states that the “Climate Pulse Technology Model” is based on natural rhythm cycles that control hurricane landfall cycles and the position of the Bermuda High Pressure Center.
Oh, yeah. The Rhythm Method. That's reliable.

JPA Cate 24-03-2018 14:00

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by grantmc (Post 2603036)
I predict those Atlantic storms will be called:

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Quiqui (nickname for Enrique)
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Ulrich
Valerie
William
Xavierr
Ylla
Zenobia .... but it was a stretch!

:flowers: :wink:

Ann

StuM 24-03-2018 19:16

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by JPA Cate (Post 2603203)
:flowers: :wink:

Ann

grantmc's list was complete.

They only use 21 letters. And the lists rotate every 6 years. Here are the current lists with an explanation.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

Snore 24-03-2018 19:23

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
I love threads like this.

First here is my 100% accurate prediction... .... If YOU or your boat get his by a hurricane- you will consider it a bad season. Is some other poor *>%# gets hit instead of you- it is a good season.

Everything else is bologna.


Regarding letters-after the expected names are used they go to the Greek alphabet.

jackdale 24-03-2018 19:30

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
David Dilley of GWO also predicted a cooling cycle starting in 2008.

ICECAP

Jim Cate 24-03-2018 20:12

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
With no reference to this forecast, I'm always amused when folks say things like hurricane f/c worst in 70 years... global warming is responsible, etc. Wonder what caused that even worse season 70 years ago, somewhat before GW was seriously considered?

But hurricane/cyclone f/c have been notoriously bad in the past... even predicting the behavior of one after formation is kinda sketchy. They're fractious beasts. BTW, yesterday we had three of them active in Aussie waters... worst in many years, etc.

Jim

Dave_S 24-03-2018 20:51

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbunyard (Post 2602993)
Another 'scientist-for-hire'.

"Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 - but some hurricane landfalls will occur in different locations this year. You can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms. And once again – some Caribbean Islands will have another dangerous season."


Seems a bit like reading your horoscope...

Mr Dilley isn't a Ground Hog is he? I saw a documentary on him with Bill Murray once.

SV THIRD DAY 24-03-2018 22:07

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Was the prediction made by Al Gore?

GordMay 25-03-2018 03:11

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
The official hurricane season forecast from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) will be released in late May, with updates during the season. Most experts believe that today’s hurricane forecasting models have little to no skill before June.
NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions.

Colorado State University’s next seasonal hurricane forecast release date is April 5, 2018.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media...12/2017-12.pdf

danielamartindm 25-03-2018 03:38

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
More leftist NOAA faux "science" to prop up failing global warming hysteria. No, thanks. SJW's attack in three....two...one...

GordMay 25-03-2018 04:35

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by danielamartindm (Post 2603460)
More leftist NOAA faux "science" ...

If the NOAA is merely a leftist, faux science, ideological propaganda machine; where does one get reliable climactic/weather information?

Are NOAA scientists more “reliable” when they appear more in alignment with your (presumed) world view?
As in ➥ https://www.studentnewsdaily.com/exa...ornia-drought/

jimbunyard 25-03-2018 05:05

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY (Post 2603404)
Was the prediction made by Al Gore?

Quote:

Originally Posted by danielamartindm (Post 2603460)
More leftist NOAA faux "science" to prop up failing global warming hysteria. No, thanks. SJW's attack in three....two...one...

Go

Points 4 and 12 from 'The Rules'.

Stay on topic by keeping discussions relevant and on track.

Trolling and cyberstalking are NOT allowed and are grounds for account restriction or banishment. Trolling on this board includes posting controversial and often irrelevant or off-topic messages with the intention of (or anticipated result of) baiting other users into an emotional response or to generally disrupt normal, harmonious on-topic discussion, especially when a pattern of such posting is apparent.


but I hope such posts are allowed to remain, for their amusing and educational value...

Olddan1943 25-03-2018 05:13

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by J Clark H356 (Post 2602981)
Yeah and by now where I used to vacation in Florida was supposed to be under water, the Arctic Ocean ice melted and I just heard this morning an Asteroid is heading straight for us and will get her in 2035! With all these expert forecasts, I think I’m going to go put my boat on the market.

2035? Folks, I am not worried about it. I'll be belly-up.

boatman61 25-03-2018 05:16

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Gord.. One has to wonder..
Much has been made of 'The Beast from the East' in the UK.. yet I remember weather as bad or worse back in the 60's, 70's and 80's.. then we had a cycle of warmer conditions with milder winters..
People have short memories these days with the attention span of gnats programed to 30 second commercials and the latest FB hit..
Everything is sensational and everyones a hero.. and everyones trying to sell their own agenda..
One has to ask.. is it morally correct.. :biggrin:

Olddan1943 25-03-2018 05:20

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
We weren't content with the "sun spot" explanation?????

Per the ice melting? I have yet to lengthen my dock lines and I am in a marina right off the ICW.

fatherchronica 25-03-2018 08:30

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
If they do not bother to gather data and attempt to forecast, they will have no historical data to someday be accurate. With the ex CEO of Accuweather now in charge of NOAA, and promising us that in our near future all weather information will be privatized, we will be able to trust the predictions more.

taxwizz 25-03-2018 08:30

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by J Clark H356 (Post 2602981)
Yeah and by now where I used to vacation in Florida was supposed to be under water, the Arctic Ocean ice melted and I just heard this morning an Asteroid is heading straight for us and will get her in 2035! With all these expert forecasts, I think I’m going to go put my boat on the market.

No..No.
With the rising water levels you will definitely NEED your boat.
Did you not see Waterworld?

:facepalm:

fatherchronica 25-03-2018 08:42

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
In California, Washington State, and Mexico and the parts of the Caribbean I have sailed they have floating docks. It is an amazing futuristic design that will allow us to not ever lengthen our docklines due to water level, even tidal changes, unless we use our boats. I pretty much tie up a little differently a lot, sometimes for scrubbing, or it is dark and we cannot see too well. We are considering making our boat a floating condo though and never retying our docklines. And don't start me on "An Inconvenient Truth", totally plagarized from NASA, NOAA and US Navy data, just collected to make Al Gore a rich man.

roland stockham 25-03-2018 08:44

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by J Clark H356 (Post 2602981)
Yeah and by now where I used to vacation in Florida was supposed to be under water, the Arctic Ocean ice melted and I just heard this morning an Asteroid is heading straight for us and will get her in 2035! With all these expert forecasts, I think I’m going to go put my boat on the market.

I recently saw one of the Florida mayors explaining the multi-million dollar project they have had to start in order to raise sea defenses and the massive pumps installed because the city now floods ever month with the spring tide. Yachts have now sailed the NW passage that used to be solid ice - just as predicted...
You don't need a lab to measure sea level rise, just a stick and a beach. Explaining it is more difficult. It could be the will of Allah, little green men or 98% of climate scientist could be right. Take your head out of the sand before rising sea levels come in and drown you!

fatherchronica 25-03-2018 08:46

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Actually Al Gore just made the internet free for the public. We are finally getting over that massive giveaway, thank god. Net neutrality has really hampered innovation and profit for internet providers.

Rorzech 25-03-2018 09:00

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
If you want to cut through all the crap and get to the real proof of what's going on with our climate then check out this award winning channel. This guy will remove all doubt of whats going to happen with solid evidence. See for yourself !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDSc...em-uploademail

Rorzech 25-03-2018 09:03

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
As I recall Al Gore predicted that there would be NO polar ice left by the year 2013 ! We now have more Ice and polar bears than ever before ! WTH ?

Cavalier 25-03-2018 09:08

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jim Cate (Post 2603376)
Wonder what caused that even worse season 70 years ago, somewhat before GW was seriously considered?

Nazi/Axis secret technology..

roland stockham 25-03-2018 09:16

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by fatherchronica (Post 2603617)
And don't start me on "An Inconvenient Truth", totally plagarized from NASA, NOAA and US Navy data, just collected to make Al Gore a rich man.

Well of course, Al Gore is a politician not a scientist who made a useful film that helped publisize the issue, particularly in the US. And your reference list should run to thousands if you want to give credit to those who worked on the science not just a few US institutions.

Rorzech 25-03-2018 09:19

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
All the numbers have been fudged ! The ocean level hasn't risen a millimetre , a few boats made it through the NW Passage in 2013 with the help of an ice breaker but those days are gone as we have entered a regular 400 year solar minimum cycle 3 years ago. Last one froze the Thames River 50 years in a row well documented in old paintings and Shakespears writings. The proof of this is in the 2 million years history in the Green Land ice core samples, Thousands of years in tree ring records. More Millennia in ocean floor sediment core samples. These solar minimums can be correlated with with crop failures which led to most Dynasties collapsing. The proof is out there. Next winter is going to be a real doozer !

roland stockham 25-03-2018 09:25

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
As I recall Al Gore predicted that there would be NO polar ice left by the year 2013 ! We now have more Ice and polar bears than ever before ! WTH ?

Actually Al Gore just made the internet free for the public. We are finally getting over that massive giveaway, thank god. Net neutrality has really hampered innovation and profit for internet providers.

:banghead::banghead::banghead: The level of ignorance here is breathtaking. There is an old fashioned thing called a book. It contains reliable information. I suggest you try reading one. I am leaving before I get mad and say something rude

zeehag 25-03-2018 09:33

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
damn and here i was soooo looking forward to sailing over the top of the tallest condos in ft lauderdale without touching my keel on their antennae....been looking forward to this since age 8.
crappy deal,mon. i demand a full refund.....

1958 we were told one thing--water rising. chikkin little you need to move to mountains... then omygods iceage. then omg warming but with a hand out for all your dough.
\come on folks when ye gonna be getting real. go with flow. worry is as worry does and worry makes ye age faster than enjoying life.
so wtf is happening. just live. aint gonna get you, and by time it does, we will all have evolved along the way.
wow. read more folks.
btw, polar shift is overdue..... mebbe all will be tossed off guam as it tips over and into the sky as this occurs..hahahahahahahahaha. lets hear it for boston as new north pole.

the sky is falling the sky is falling.
keep a tight grasp on your dough and go sailing.

jibstay 25-03-2018 09:41

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by fatherchronica (Post 2603617)
And don't start me on "An Inconvenient Truth", totally plagarized from NASA, NOAA and US Navy data, just collected to make Al Gore a rich man.


You might disagree with the science, or his political views, but his motives are clearly not personal profit.

Al Gore has put “every penny” he has made from the films and from his investments in green technologies, into the non-profit Alliance for Climate Protection, which campaigns for solutions to climate change.

earthmover 25-03-2018 09:44

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Floating Homes. That’s the answer right there. Get a home that floats.

wcapital 25-03-2018 09:47

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by grantmc (Post 2603036)
I predict those Atlantic storms will be called:

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

But will Valerie and William see rhe light of day?

wcapital 25-03-2018 09:57

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by roland stockham (Post 2603644)
As I recall Al Gore predicted that there would be NO polar ice left by the year 2013 ! We now have more Ice and polar bears than ever before ! WTH ?

Actually Al Gore just made the internet free for the public. We are finally getting over that massive giveaway, thank god. Net neutrality has really hampered innovation and profit for internet providers.

:banghead::banghead::banghead: The level of ignorance here is breathtaking. There is an old fashioned thing called a book. It contains reliable information. I suggest you try reading one. I am leaving before I get mad and say something rude

:) :(

newhaul 25-03-2018 09:58

Re: The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jibstay (Post 2603653)
You might disagree with the science, or his political views, but his motives are clearly not personal profit.

Al Gore has put “every penny” he has made from the films and from his investments in green technologies, into the non-profit Alliance for Climate Protection, which campaigns for solutions to climate change.

that's why Al bought a condo on the beach in San Francisco bay . So he could watch it go under water. :facepalm:


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