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letsgetsailing3 14-06-2014 06:58

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ex-Calif (Post 1563866)
See the point is that it is not my risk assessment. I just did the math for the doctor. I have not assessed the risk nor have I professed that I know the risk.

He made a specific conclusion based on one disease that taking kids cruising was overly risky. I just reported that his assessment was faulty.

The push back comment was not that I would be wrong, but that those of us conditioned to listen to alarmist media have already agreed with the talking heads that "Poor Innocent Mary is being abused by those evil selfish parents."

One can also use the "results" as a measure of the statistical probability. If we assume kids cruising results in unacceptable levels of death or rescue then the empirical evidence does not back that up. Kids aren't dying at sea and there are thousands of kids cruising.

Also pointed out by others is the fact that at sea your kid is not very likely to be run over by a car, bitten by a rabid dog, be exposed to classmates with infectious diseases and pretty zero likelihood of being kidnapped by a predator.

The model is fine - the assessed risks are incomplete.

You threw in some incomplete statistics, and stated a conclusion as if it followed. Of course that's often overlooked on internet forums.

You are certainly entitled to an opinion, but throwing in some incomplete statistics as if you are making a logical conclusion that follows makes for an invalid argument.

It doesn't make your conclusion invalid, just your argument.

letsgetsailing3 14-06-2014 07:14

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ex-Calif (Post 1563869)
We can argue all day about relative exposure but I'd like to believe the rate of homicide, accidental injury and suicide is lower at sea... We definitely would need to know populations and manipulate the data in an agreed fashion to really assess the probabilities.


You "liking to believe it" and knowing a few families on the ocean may seem like irrefutable fact to you, but is still simply anecdotal.

Most kids make it, a few don't. Part of that is related to parents doing their jobs, part genetics, and part to random chance, at least in the first world.

One thing I think you CAN find statistics on are survival rates in different countries, and you might be able to derive some conclusions based on hygiene and the type of care available, but you have to remember that even then you're subject to record-keeping practices.

You just can't prove your conclusions using statistics without the actual data, and I'd be surprised if anyone is keeping that.

Ex-Calif 14-06-2014 07:24

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3 (Post 1564118)
You threw in some incomplete statistics, and stated a conclusion as if it followed. Of course that's often overlooked on internet forums.

You are certainly entitled to an opinion, but throwing in some incomplete statistics as if you are making a logical conclusion that follows makes for an invalid argument.

It doesn't make your conclusion invalid, just your argument.

Not sure why people keep insisting that I made a conclusion - I refuted one.

And dismissing my statistics without posting any of your own is cowardly. It's easy to throw lighted torches at my barn. Try building your own barn.

But I've played internet forum a lot. After 2 or 3 posts it is no longer about who is correct, it is about who wins. So I concede, you win.

BTW - I appreciate your challenges because it made me go do some research. I am not arguing with you at this point I am posting stuff that hopefully is making people who are reading and not posting think about their paradigms.

People will find "facts" on the internet to support their argument and then use that to try to convince other people - I do it all the time. I think CDC is pretty credible. As I eyeball the things that kill kids I think living on a boat, close to me, away from the evil society might be safer for my 16 y/o boy. At least I know he has little chance of homicide or suicide.

There is some disease out there that requires medical intervention in 1 out of 3,000 kids in the first 5 years of life - The only point I have made is that this is not a reason to not take kids cruising. It is an infinitesimal risk on a 21 day passage.

I don't even know at this point what you believe other than, "Ex-Calif is wrong." What I do know is that whatever you believe there is zero chance of changing your mind.

I've said many times, In the history of the internet no one has ever changed their mind as a result of an internet forum debate. It's too public and for some reason people have too much vested in their position.

letsgetsailing3 14-06-2014 07:53

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ex-Calif (Post 1564137)
I don't even know at this point what you believe other than, "Ex-Calif is wrong." What I do know is that whatever you believe there is zero chance of changing your mind.

I was just pointing out that the statistics you provided didn't prove your conclusion.

As for taking young children sailing, I think it's a risk assessment that should be left to the parents. My objection was to your use of statistics -- I didn't think the conclusion followed.

I don't think risk in this matter can be derived from generic data out there, both because there isn't enough to go on, and the risk assessment has to be specific to THAT family, not the risks in general. So I think it's more about the parent's experience both with the type of cruising they're planning, their experience with children, and the constitution of the specific kids.

Stu Jackson 14-06-2014 08:08

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3 (Post 1564155)
I was just pointing out that the statistics you provided didn't prove your conclusion.

As for taking young children sailing, I think it's a risk assessment that should be left to the parents. My objection was to your use of statistics -- I didn't think the conclusion followed.

I don't think risk in this matter can be derived from generic data out there, both because there isn't enough to go on, and the risk assessment has to be specific to THAT family, not the risks in general. So I think it's more about the parent's experience both with the type of cruising they're planning, their experience with children, and the constitution of the specific kids.

OK, already, give it a break, we hear you. :banghead:

letsgetsailing3 14-06-2014 08:18

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu Jackson (Post 1564162)
OK, already, give it a break, we hear you. :banghead:


Sorry, sometimes it's difficult to to stop :deadhorsebeat:

Ex-Calif 14-06-2014 08:19

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3 (Post 1564155)
<snip>

I don't think risk in this matter can be derived from generic data out there, both because there isn't enough to go on, and the risk assessment has to be specific to THAT family, not the risks in general. So I think it's more about the parent's experience both with the type of cruising they're planning, their experience with children, and the constitution of the specific kids.

So - Leave it up to the parent's discretion?

Thank you. That's been my whole point. Use data or don't, no biggie for me.

But don't tell me (or Eric and Charlotte) that cruising is bad for my (or their) kids. My decision, thank you.

Andrew B. 14-06-2014 08:38

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
letsgosailing,

Since you seem to believe that one's opinion, and/or beliefs should backed
up with irrefutable data would you mind sharing yours regarding what seems
to be your contention that sailing with children is more dangerous than
other childhood activities. eg soccer, baseball, rugby, football, riding a
bicycle, etc...

I have read, and reread your debate with exCalif and fail to see how you
came to your conclusion that exCalif's recent post are somehow in error
in either process, or conclusion. I do see where you totally mis- interpreted
what he posted in regards to ONE specific childhood illness.
Your extrapolation from exCalif's post regarding ONE conclusion
regarding ONE childhood illness has been really quite amazing,
but unsupported with fact. Mountains out of molehills.

What statistics are you using as proof that sailing with children is more
dangerous than staying in port ?

If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with ********.

letsgetsailing3 14-06-2014 09:29

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ex-Calif (Post 1564177)
So - Leave it up to the parent's discretion?

Thank you. That's been my whole point. Use data or don't, no biggie for me.

But don't tell me (or Eric and Charlotte) that cruising is bad for my (or their) kids. My decision, thank you.

That's exactly what I said. Parent's discretion.

Just don't misuse statistics in an attempt to "prove" your point. In this case, I haven't seen any statistics that support your point, so why even try and inject them as if there was mathematical proof?

letsgetsailing3 14-06-2014 09:29

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew B. (Post 1564192)
letsgosailing,


If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with ********.

I was simply pointing out an attempt to do that.

Andrew B. 14-06-2014 10:01

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3 (Post 1564237)
I was simply pointing out an attempt to do that.

Pure conjecture on your part.

S/V Alchemy 14-06-2014 11:46

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Scottuk (Post 1563595)
Don't agree, it would seem you are saying nothing can be learned from the past.

No, I'm saying that their kids will be older (not toddler aged) by the time they likely restart their voyaging (or if...). So they won't be dealing with that "is it wise to take under 5s to sea" argument. It's not something I would do oceanically, but people have done so, and safely, as we did with our kid who has always come with us even in some stiff, cold stuff. This is from October of 2005 on Lake Ontario. The boy in question has just turned four. Conditions are broad reach, 24 gusting 30 knots, with just a No. 3 out. Some would call this child abuse. He called it "sleepy time".
https://www.cruisersforum.com/attachm...a3fa8ff6d1.jpg

Ex-Calif 14-06-2014 13:50

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3 (Post 1564236)
That's exactly what I said. Parent's discretion.

Just don't misuse statistics in an attempt to "prove" your point. In this case, I haven't seen any statistics that support your point, so why even try and inject them as if there was mathematical proof?

It's a free internet - Everyone is free to abuse and misuse statistics to their heart's content if they so desire.

You continue on in your quest to police the internet against invalid arguments and statistics and let me know how that works out for you. :whistling:

Scottuk 14-06-2014 13:52

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

It's not something I would do oceanically, but people have done so, and safely
We agree and I think the topic merits further discussion for elucidation.

Ex-Calif 14-06-2014 14:03

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by S/V Alchemy (Post 1564297)
Conditions are broad reach, 24 gusting 30 knots, with just a No. 3 out. Some would call this child abuse. He called it "sleepy time".
https://www.cruisersforum.com/attachm...a3fa8ff6d1.jpg

Cool!

FWIW - Consider getting a pfd with a crotch strap or rig one up for toddlers - although yours looks pretty sing and probably wouldn't do the following...

When Josh was four we were on a water skiing trip. There was Josh in the bow and two adults in the back of the boat.

I was watching Josh pretty carefully but I was distracted by the skiers fall for like 10 seconds. The boat was stopped - When I turned around all I saw were Josh's fingers hanging on the bow rail. I jumped up there, grabbed the pfd by the collar, Josh let go and immediately slipped out the bottom of the pfd.

He sank like a rock. I dove in and in the relatively muddy lake could not see 5 feet. I kept going, reached out and snagged him.

Josh and I joke about all the times I've almost killed him over the years. Up to about 14 it was all accidental, now that he is 16 it seems more homicidal...

letsgetsailing3 14-06-2014 15:27

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ex-Calif (Post 1564353)
It's a free internet - Everyone is free to abuse and misuse statistics to their heart's content if they so desire.

You continue on in your quest to police the internet against invalid arguments and statistics and let me know how that works out for you. :whistling:

I'd say in your case, you finally got my point.

boatman61 14-06-2014 15:47

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
[QUOTE=letsgetsailing3;1564133]
Most kids make it, a few don't. Part of that is related to parents doing their jobs, part genetics, and part to random chance, at least in the first world.
QUOTE]

Most adults make it.. a few don't..:D

colemj 14-06-2014 16:35

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
[QUOTE=boatman61;1564432]
Quote:

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3 (Post 1564133)
Most kids make it, a few don't. Part of that is related to parents doing their jobs, part genetics, and part to random chance, at least in the first world.
QUOTE]

Most adults make it.. a few don't..:D

Nobody makes it unless they quit. And then they don't make it.

Mark

Ex-Calif 14-06-2014 17:45

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3 (Post 1564424)
I'd say in your case, you finally got my point.

I'd say most everyone got your point in the first or second of your posts - the disappointment is that my despite my awesome communication skills you didn't get mine. :p

S/V Alchemy 15-06-2014 09:51

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ex-Calif (Post 1564362)
Cool!

FWIW - Consider getting a pfd with a crotch strap or rig one up for toddlers - although yours looks pretty sing and probably wouldn't do the following...

Agreed. And while he's pushing 13 now and wears an adult PFD, that PFD pictured had a crotch strap (you can see one of the tabs), but I suspect he'd just finished using "the boy's bucket" prior to his snooze. The bit you don't see is a 5/16th" tether with a Gibb shackle on it that we used until he was six or so. By seven, he was "unturtle-ing" Optimists, despite a lack of mass, and so we deemed him OK to got tetherless unless we also needed tethering. So while I have concerns about taking toddlers offshore, I'm a proponent of getting kids sailing as early as they can work the lines.
https://www.cruisersforum.com/attachm...43e5d34669.jpg

In this shot, he's about two weeks shy of seven years old. Weight: 21 kilos/46 pounds. Took him a while to right the Opti.

Andrew B. 15-06-2014 09:58

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
That's a cover shot if I have ever saw one ! And happy fathers day, at least it here in the U.S.

Andrew B. 15-06-2014 10:03

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
[QUOTE=colemj;1564452]
Quote:

Originally Posted by boatman61 (Post 1564432)

Nobody makes it unless they quit. And then they don't make it.

Mark

I'm confused. I am with you about those that quit not making it.


"Nobody makes it unless they quit." Help me understand this part.

colemj 15-06-2014 10:14

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Sorry I forgot the smiley. One poster stated some kids don't make it and another poster stated some adults don't make it. The "it" they were referring to was life. I was just playing with the old saying "Nobody makes it out of this world alive".

:)

Mark

boatman61 15-06-2014 10:16

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
[QUOTE=Andrew B.;1564886]
Quote:

Originally Posted by colemj (Post 1564452)

I'm confused. I am with you about those that quit not making it.


"Nobody makes it unless they quit." Help me understand this part.

I really hate these 'Quote' 'Misquotes'...:banghead:
I said...
'Most adults make it... a few don't..'
Colemj said...
Nobody makes it unless they quit."
Which totally confused me...:rolleyes:
I think he's smoking the Whacky Baccy again....:p:p:p

colemj 15-06-2014 10:18

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Again, I apologize for not being a good joke maker.

:) (soon to be my signature, I guess...)

Mark

Andrew B. 15-06-2014 10:25

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by colemj (Post 1564900)
Again, I apologize for not being a good joke maker.

:) (soon to be my signature, I guess...)

Mark


Buy boatie a few beers and I bet he can teach you all kinds of funny things
to say. Well that is if you can understand a damn thing he's saying...

I plan on using weavis as a interpreter ! On second though.....never mind...lol

Palarran 15-06-2014 12:57

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew B. (Post 1564192)
letsgosailing,

Since you seem to believe that one's opinion, and/or beliefs should backed
up with irrefutable data would you mind sharing yours regarding what seems to be your contention that sailing with children is more dangerous than other childhood activities. eg soccer, baseball, rugby, football, riding a bicycle, etc...

I can't believe anyone would think that sailing isn't more dangerous than any of these sports. Maybe in an opti but really, sailing in a boat of any size any long distance is much more dangerous. I'm doing it right now with a 17 and 20 year old and have to watch what is going on all the time. The list of serious dangers is too long to post and I'm worried that you all don't see them.

boatman61 15-06-2014 13:11

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Palarran (Post 1564961)
I can't believe anyone would think that sailing isn't more dangerous than any of these sports. Maybe in an opti but really, sailing in a boat of any size any long distance is much more dangerous. I'm doing it right now with a 17 and 20 year old and have to watch what is going on all the time. The list of serious dangers is too long to post and I'm worried that you all don't see them.

Hey... Rik Mayall just died after going out for his healthy morning jog... if you start thinking about it staying in bed can kill you.. the ceiling may collapse.. Sheesh.. lets get paranoid guys..:D:D:D

colemj 15-06-2014 13:33

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by boatman61 (Post 1564966)
Hey... Rik Mayall just died after going out for his healthy morning jog... if you start thinking about it staying in bed can kill you.. the ceiling may collapse.. Sheesh.. lets get paranoid guys..:D:D:D

Since it takes one to know one (joke telling impaired), let me just say that Pallaran forgot to add the "tongue-in-cheek" emoticon.

Think WAAAAAAAY back to when you were 17 and 20 :thumb:

Mark

accomplice 15-06-2014 13:36

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
I certainly do not believe that sailing is more inherently dangerous than many other sports. I have no seen no objective evidence of that.

I do suspect that racing is more dangerous than cruising (I sustained a serious head injury while racing when I was young), but again, I have no hard data to support this hunch either.

I do know that each year in the US over 3.5 million kids under 14 receive medical treatment for sports injuries, and that high school athletes account for another 2 million injuries each year.

On what basis would anyone assert that sailing, whether racing or family cruising, is more dangerous than any other activity?

boatman61 15-06-2014 13:48

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by colemj (Post 1564973)
Think WAAAAAAAY back to when you were 17 and 20 :thumb:

Mark

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm... that's when I did a lot of time in the Glasshouse (RNDQ's) for going AWOL after getting drunk and falling in love.. now that is dangerous..:thumb:

Palarran 15-06-2014 22:08

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by accomplice (Post 1564974)
I certainly do not believe that sailing is more inherently dangerous than many other sports. I have no seen no objective evidence of that.

I do suspect that racing is more dangerous than cruising (I sustained a serious head injury while racing when I was young), but again, I have no hard data to support this hunch either.

I do know that each year in the US over 3.5 million kids under 14 receive medical treatment for sports injuries, and that high school athletes account for another 2 million injuries each year.

On what basis would anyone assert that sailing, whether racing or family cruising, is more dangerous than any other activity?

Where did you get your statistics on sports injuries? Is there a link?

In regard to the red

Personal observation of both. My son plays Lacrosse. From the age of 12 to 20, now at the College level, he has played consistently and not been injured in a sport which has a fair amount of contact. Very few do and I don't see other kids loosing limbs. But on a boat the loads on your running rigging can cut off fingers or smash body parts in a second. Even anchoring can be dangerous if your not performed properly. I'm not saying to not do it, as we obviously are right now, but IMO, it's substantially more dangerous for serious injuries then playing soccer, basketball, baseball, or whatever given the amount of kids playing those compared to sailing off or near shore.

As others have posted, life is full of danger and it can't stop you from following your passion, I just think we need to recognize that our sport does have an element of serious danger to it.

chall 16-06-2014 00:09

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
https://sailingwithsophie.files.wordp...ming.jpg?w=500

Her crotch strap drives her crazy, but she deals with it. It was a dangerous voyage in Pittwater 10 knots gusting 12. Genoa only so we could go slowly and look for ducks and the ever elusive penguins. Only injury reported was to a dinghy oar.

While this statistical probability debate is interesting, in reality statistics can only ever be a broad stroke and therefore not very helpful in analysing the actual risks an individual may face.

We try and use a bit of common sense in whatever we do.

accomplice 16-06-2014 04:19

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Palarran (Post 1565186)
Where did you get your statistics on sports injuries? Is there a link?

Statistics

letsgetsailing3 16-06-2014 06:05

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
[QUOTE=accomplice;1565297]

I believe that cruising has risks that are higher than staying home. It seems to me to be basic common sense that if you go from a place where you have more relative control over water, food, shelter, and events to a place where you have less control over these basic needs then you are adding risk. You're more exposed to the elements. This is why most people live in houses if they have the opportunity, and not small, fiberglass boxes.

Don't misunderstand me -- I think the risks are worth it, but I don't really understand some people's need to deny that they exist. For me, the dangerous bit isn't that there are risks, it's denying that they are there.

accomplice 16-06-2014 06:30

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
letsgetsailing, I don't deny that risks exist (I suffered a serious head injury racing a C&C44 27 years ago), but, knock-on-wood, in 40 years on the water there was only that one time that I needed to seek emergency medical treatment for self or crew. On land, we several times have needed medical assistance (and I live with a doctor!) for illness or injury. I worry more about a serious injury while my five children are bicycling on the streets in the rural town where we live than about a serious injury while cruising.

As far as minor injuries, resupplying the first aid-kit tells the tale. We go through more bandages at home in a week for skinned knees or sprains than while cruising. Personally, I stub my toes more on the boat, but I think that says more about my clumsiness than anything else. I have found that the only minor "injury" that happens more frequently while cruising is sunburn -- and you'd think that would be easily preventable.

Dangers abound while on the boat -- losing someone overboard chief among them -- but dangers are everywhere at home too. Experience shows that the zipline in the back-yard or wet tile in on the mudroom floor have caused more ambulance rides than anything on the boat. Yes, one could get ones fingers caught in a line on a winch, but instead I've had to take my daughter to multiple specialists when she closed her hand in a car door.

letsgetsailing3 16-06-2014 07:02

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by accomplice (Post 1565373)
letsgetsailing, I don't deny that risks exist (I suffered a serious head injury racing a C&C44 27 years ago), but, knock-on-wood, in 40 years on the water there was only that one time that I needed to seek emergency medical treatment for self or crew. On land, we several times have needed medical assistance (and I live with a doctor!) for illness or injury. I worry more about a serious injury while my five children are bicycling on the streets in the rural town where we live than about a serious injury while cruising.

I started a new thread to discuss this, as it has nothing at all to do with Rebel Heart.

https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/...nd-127999.html

Stu Jackson 16-06-2014 07:15

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Snow skiing is more dangerous than boating. And many people who go skiing stay in houses overnight. :)

letsgetsailing3 16-06-2014 07:19

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu Jackson (Post 1565401)
Snow skiing is more dangerous than boating. And many people who go skiing stay in houses overnight. :)

Are you kidding me?

My response is in the other thread.

Andrew B. 16-06-2014 07:52

Re: Call for Help/ This American Life (Merged)
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3 (Post 1565392)
I started a new thread to discuss this, as it has nothing at all to do with Rebel Heart.

https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/...nd-127999.html

And I just read your first post in that new thread.
Since you confirmed your true colors by bringing Obamacare into the debate
I am ignoring it. I can only hope the others in this debate do so to.

You have put words into other peoples mouths countless times in your
incessant efforts to prove a point, yet have not offered any statistical data to back up your claim.

To the best of my recollection no one in this debate as denied that cruising
with children can be dangerous. The only debate I see is to how much.

Your claim is that it is inherently more dangerous than many other
childhood activities. I say your entitled to your opinion, but unless,and until
you back it up with the appropriate statistics your opinion is no more valid
than those that disagree with your claim.

Maybe you need to take your soapbox to the Colregs committee and
whine until the Ralph Nader types agree to regulations regarding cruising
with children that make you feel safer.

What makes you a better parent than those that have a different perception of sailing with their children.


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