Rate of Sea State Subsiding (Oz SE Coast)

[JPA Cate]

We have a strengthening, slow moving high, accompanied by a deepening young low off Brisbane generating a large easterly swell (combined sea + swell is 5 m.), so the bar of the Clarence River is closed, for us. If the high moves off, so the squash zone is eased, how long does it take for the sea state to subside? or, is the question unanswerable because there is no good way to predict how fast the high will soften and/or move away? let alone where, and how low the low will go and become?

You all can tell me to hush up and go away, this may not be an answerable question at all.

Ann

[clownfishsydney]

Not as experienced at how quick sea changes in northern NSW, but in Sydney if can drop as quickly as overnight, even if the low producing the wind and swell is a long way away. Sometimes the lows can hover for days or even a week. We had one off Sydney a bit over a week ago that stayed still for about 5 days. The answer is probably "a piece of string this long" to use an old saying.

According to Willyweather, the swell at Yamba will drop to 2 m by Wednesday and about 1 m by Saturday. I assume you are in the Clarence River want to leave. Worse places to spend a few days.

[arsenelupiga]

we stuck in same situation in southport. Very windy and rainy. Waves in front of Yamba should drop below 2 m by friday according to eu model. But then southerly front coming on saturday. And another one in couple days.

Btw, using any particular tactics to minimize whale collision chances? There is plenty of them out there. We try to do daysails and run engines if at night.

[JPA Cate]

Hi, arsenlupiga,

Nothing for whale avoidance at night. Fwiw, last week, we saw only a few whales between Southport and here. If you have your engines running, they may be able to hear them. You've heard them calling when diving, or snorkeling, I bet. That's pretty low frequency, but their tail and chin slaps are higher frequency. Since they use them to communicate, I'm fairly sure they can at least hear that frequency range. I do not know if they can hear our depth sounders pinging. I'd like to know that, too.

Fwiw, our friends who ran up on a whale's back in a steel Roberts 38 reported that the whale did not try to get revenge, but I am sure they weren't going over 6 or 7 knots at the time.



Ann

[arsenelupiga]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

Hi, arsenlupiga,

Nothing for whale avoidance at night. Fwiw, last week, we saw only a few whales between Southport and here. If you have your engines running, they may be able to hear them. You've heard them calling when diving, or snorkeling, I bet. That's pretty low frequency, but their tail and chin slaps are higher frequency. Since they use them to communicate, I'm fairly sure they can at least hear that frequency range. I do not know if they can hear our depth sounders pinging. I'd like to know that, too.

Fwiw, our friends who ran up on a whale's back in a steel Roberts 38 reported that the whale did not try to get revenge, but I am sure they weren't going over 6 or 7 knots at the time.



Ann

thanks for that. We go for Yamba next, possibly friday. There is plenty of them outside Moreton and Stradbroke islands.

[bill good]

G'day Jim & Ann Check your PMS. Whales make more whales at better than 10% P/A. Which my money did the same!!


Regards

[Mr B]

Ask the VRS on your VHF, They will give you an idea,
They do give a local weather report at 6-00 am every day on channel 16, I think it is,

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

........ If the high moves off, so the squash zone is eased, how long does it take for the sea state to subside? or, is the question unanswerable because there is no good way to predict how fast the high will soften and/or move away? let alone where, and how low the low will go and become?

You all can tell me to hush up and go away, this may not be an answerable question at all.

Ann

Well Met Eye suggests the swell will be decreasing to 2 /3 metres Wednesday morning but I dunno if you trust them or if you are asking a different question.

And less than 2 metres Thursday PM / Friday AM.

[ozsailer]

Hi Ann.
if you go to the Bureau or Meterology site and then go the bottom of the main page you will see a section called Meteye. Click on that and it will bring up a map of Austraia with several types of forecasts listed on the left column. While there are wind forecasts with grib files covering several days there is also a section for wave forecasts. If you click on that it will give you a window showing wave and swell forecasts over several days also showing the direction of the seas. I normally find it reasonably accurate. Predictwind has a similar display but not as detailed as the BOM imo.


Greg H
Blue Pointer

[tpkas]

Hi Ann,


There are at least another 3 of us trying to get out of the Clarence at the moment. Consensus is that no one is going anywhere until at least Thursday. To compound the size of the seas is that the tidal variation on Thursday between high and low tide is only about 0.4m with the high occuring at. 4:30am ih so there won't be enough light to actually see if and where the waves are breaking. The charts recommended course will take you through an area that often breaks too .... We're not leaving until I can see the bar conditions. I suspect we'll be here for a few days after Thursday.
Dave (?) at Reel Time Fishing Charters is a bit of a local guru and it may be worthwhile having a chat with him for an opinion.


Brian

[Richinasia]

Hi Jim,
Check out the surf cams. Dead accurate .

[Richinasia]

Hi Jim,
Coastal watch is good. I can see the swell rolling down channel at Iluka.

[JPA Cate]

First off, thanks to all of you for the helpful and supportive posts.

Thursday's getting closer, and with the run-in following high water, one might be able to get out Thursday, just hard to tell in advance, and I, in particular, have a hard time trusting even MetEye, because of the times it has been very wrong. It's not really fair to them, because wx is fluid and difficult to get right. My bad. We'll all probably get it figured out by Wed night, as the predictions are more accurate the closer you are to the time.

Yes, watching the sea and swell predictions, and trying to factor it in with previous experience. Watching the webcam, too, early, when the lights are still flashing, and also at the top of the tides.

Yes, all of us chafing at the bit, so to speak.

Ann

[Amnesia II]

In the meantime, nice walk through the rain forest and back along the beach...Iluka.

[Jim Cate]

Originally Posted by Amnesia II

In the meantime, nice walk through the rain forest and back along the beach...Iluka.

Emphasis upon the RAIN forest... it has been bucketing down on a frequent schedule, Alan. The solar panels sent out an envoy asking where Sol was. Grump... I need to be in Pittwater next wednesday morning (24th).

Jim