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Old 22-09-2020, 08:13   #61
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

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Originally Posted by boatboy59 View Post
I have to say that recent NHC tracks have been astonishingly good. Kind of beyond belief actually. Velocity forecasts not so much. But, I think that in the case of Sally, all the computing power in the world would have had a tough time forecasting landfall of a hurricane moving at 2 mph.

The disappointing thing is that the NHC should have said, “hey, we have no freaking idea where this thing will make landfall” and prepared a wider area. If I recall though, the cone was awfully broad and squashed due to lack of forward speed. Pensacola was always going to be on the eastern side of Sally, it was only a matter of how far. As we all know, anywhere east of a hurricane is a bad place to be. Well, west ain’t so great either as we learned with Matthew.
There seems to be a rule with all weather forecasters that they are never allowed to say, “We just don’t know.”
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Old 22-09-2020, 17:57   #62
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

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Originally Posted by boatboy59 View Post
I have to say that recent NHC tracks have been astonishingly good. Kind of beyond belief actually. Velocity forecasts not so much. But, I think that in the case of Sally, all the computing power in the world would have had a tough time forecasting landfall of a hurricane moving at 2 mph.

The disappointing thing is that the NHC should have said, “hey, we have no freaking idea where this thing will make landfall” and prepared a wider area. If I recall though, the cone was awfully broad and squashed due to lack of forward speed. Pensacola was always going to be on the eastern side of Sally, it was only a matter of how far. As we all know, anywhere east of a hurricane is a bad place to be. Well, west ain’t so great either as we learned with Matthew.
Pensacola was right on the eastern edge of the cone on Saturday. The thing that I think threw a lot of people off was that by Sunday morning, Pensacola was out of the cone and not even in hurricane watch area. Sunday evening, it switched back to inside the cone and by then was too late for a lot of people to move anything as the winds were already picking up. And every 4 hour update after that moved the storm a few miles east. Even NOAA made a remark about repetitiveness of adjusting east in their updates.

I’ve been down here since Friday sorting things out and talking to people. No one got out. Even the construction company for the bridges left there stuff out in the bay, which the locals thought was weird because they have always moved the equipment into Bayou Chico for every storm. Everyone was caught off guard nor had time to do anything but tie up, and hope for the best.

Very few marinas came out ok. We have moved to one of the surviving marinas yesterday.
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