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Old 17-09-2020, 16:20   #46
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

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Originally Posted by RainDog View Post
It seems most people in Pensacola took no notice either. A few hours before the storm hit we checked several marinas that have no protection and they were pretty much full. The construction company building the new bridge left 10's of millions of dollars of equipment sitting on barges in the bay. That same equipment destroyed a good section of the new bridge.

I can see boat owners not paying attention, but how one of the biggest construction companies in the world does not take precautions is baffling to me.
Easy to point fingers but where would you have these companies put their equipment before this at first Tropical Storm hit?

Where would a good spot be for a barge and crane that can only go to certain places
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Old 17-09-2020, 17:20   #47
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

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My understanding is that underground utilities are problematic. They might withstand the wind but they can can flood out. And being underground, any repairs from flood damage will cost more money and take longer. Utilities on poles don't really take that long to fix, as long as the poles survive.

we have underground utilities and in 5 years we lost power 3 or 4 times. once after a heavy snow it was for 12 hours. i think it is more reliable than poles especially in areas with lots of trees. then again we have an elevation of over 2000 feet. Ivan hit this place too
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Old 17-09-2020, 17:58   #48
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

This, put it once underground in a proper way at a one time higher cost.
Than mostly be able to forget about it and save with each year.

It's not rocket science to dig in cables, neither is it to make them waterproof. Large parts of Europe do it this way, telephone lines, electrics, everything under ground.
Exception from the rule large very high voltage long distance lines.

As we have transatlantic cables for over 100 years, it can not be so complicated to waterproof those cables.
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we have underground utilities and in 5 years we lost power 3 or 4 times. once after a heavy snow it was for 12 hours. i think it is more reliable than poles especially in areas with lots of trees. then again we have an elevation of over 2000 feet. Ivan hit this place too
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Old 17-09-2020, 18:16   #49
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

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Easy to point fingers but where would you have these companies put their equipment before this at first Tropical Storm hit?

Where would a good spot be for a barge and crane that can only go to certain places

Bayou Chico. Skanska keeps a large compound there. That is where they have moved them in the past when storms are threatening.
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Old 17-09-2020, 19:11   #50
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

Our marina got hit hard. 2 boats sank. We all discussed plans 3 days out, when we weren’t even in the cone and prepared anyway. We were expecting tropical storm edge winds. I wasn’t even down there but discussed with people we have looking after our boat. The forecast really turned against us mid sunday, and by then it was too late to move boats as the wind was quite stout out of the east. Everyone lashed tied their boats up the best they could, and let lines out as the surge came in. Once the surge got well over the docks and winds were approaching hurricane strength, the liveaboards retreated to shelter and watched from a near by hotel as boats started sinking, pilings getting broken, boats start banging on each other, etc.. Locals tell me the 90kt winds kept up for hours, most of the day.

Our boat survived, some scrapes and bruises, but she is floating and doesn’t have any holes we can see from above water. Heading down in the morning to move it, as the marina has to be cleared, its a hazard at this point.

If we had been in the cone 3 days out, I would have moved the boat down the ICW to st. andrews bay. Once we got in the cone, I only had about 36 hours and the winds were already blowing 30-35. If I had been there I might have just anchored out with a lot of rode and hoped for the best.

I heard 23 marinas were damaged or destroyed. Big question now is what we will do with our boat, as I’m sure lots of boats are needing places to go. We’ll live on it for a few weeks until we find a spot, but she’s 28’ and we cant stay on it forever.

If anyone knows a marina in the area that didn’t get destroyed and has vacancy, send me a PM
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Old 18-09-2020, 05:26   #51
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

I think a lot of people, myself included, have put too much trust in the NHC and their storm track predictions. When I was younger, my hurricane policy was that once a named storm was in the Gulf of Mexico, no matter where it was predicted to go, the boat went to it’s hurricane hole. Sally was a wake up call for me. I think I am going to start utilizing that policy again.
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Old 18-09-2020, 05:36   #52
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

I was pretty impressed with the amount of water and it's speed coming down the St Johns River yesterday here in Jacksonville FL. I doubt if my slip stuck out into the flow my boat would still be around. And the area that the St Johns drains wasn't even in the major storm rain zone.
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Old 18-09-2020, 05:37   #53
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

For what it's worth, the power lines in the last place I lived were above ground to my street, then underground from there. Lost power once for an hour in the 3 years I lived there. At the current place in 2.5 years I've never seen more than a flicker and that's with mostly above ground utilities in the area.

In general, underground utilities are more common in densely populated areas. In less dense areas, the cost of running the lines underground is just too high relative to the number of buildings served. In some areas, they could rebuild the above ground lines entirely several times over and still be cheaper. Plus, while underground lines are harder to damage, they're also harder to fix.
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Old 18-09-2020, 05:47   #54
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

Quote:
Originally Posted by Group9 View Post
I think a lot of people, myself included, have put too much trust in the NHC and their storm track predictions. When I was younger, my hurricane policy was that once a named storm was in the Gulf of Mexico, no matter where it was predicted to go, the boat went to it’s hurricane hole. Sally was a wake up call for me. I think I am going to start utilizing that policy again.
Prudent policy.
Track forecasts have steadily improved, as ever-increasing quantity and accuracy of atmospheric observations enable us to input more accurate initial conditions, and faster computers allow our numerical models to replicate the increasingly fine detail those observations provide. This progress can be readily seen in the evolution of NHC’s “cone of uncertainty”, which is formed from circles that are expected to enclose the actual position of the storm, two-thirds of the time. By this measure, the uncertainty in a hurricane’s track, has decreased by nearly 40%, over the years since deadly Hurricane Katrina. The cone has gotten smaller, as our forecast accuracy has improved. The cone, which covers days 1 through 5 of a forecast, is made up of circles, sized so that 66 percent of the time, the center of the storm has stayed inside that area.
This implies that 33 percent of the time, the storm falls outside of the circle.
The underlying thing is, it’s a chaotic system so there will always be a some measure of uncertainty.
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Old 18-09-2020, 05:56   #55
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

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Bayou Chico. Skanska keeps a large compound there. That is where they have moved them in the past when storms are threatening.
I still think it would be tough to unsecure and move all the cranes and barges into Bayou Chico for a storm that appeared to be maybe Tropical for Pensacola.

https://www.facebook.com/MyPensacola...type=2&theater

The problem with this one it appears is that it almost stopped when it got there.

We use to hang out during Cat 1's and 2's maybe 3' above the high water mark and watch the anchored boats on Bayou Grande. Water would usually get right up to the apartment and then stop.

I bet that same apartment complex may have gotten flooded again this time. (The Landing Apartments and Marina) It had 8' of water on the first floor during Ivan September 2004 but I was living over near the airport by then on Summit.
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Old 18-09-2020, 06:28   #56
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

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Originally Posted by Group9 View Post
I think a lot of people, myself included, have put too much trust in the NHC and their storm track predictions. When I was younger, my hurricane policy was that once a named storm was in the Gulf of Mexico, no matter where it was predicted to go, the boat went to it’s hurricane hole. Sally was a wake up call for me. I think I am going to start utilizing that policy again.
This is correct, because it is simply impossible to predict 100% where a natural disaster may turn.
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Old 19-09-2020, 03:50   #57
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

The Atlantic hurricane season has produced so many named storms that scientists ran out of traditional names, as tropical storm Wilfred developed in the eastern Atlantic. It was only the second time that has happened, since forecasters standardized the naming system in 1953.
Wilfred was weak and far from land.
Two hours after Wilfred took shape, the U.S. National Hurricane Center moved to the Greek alphabet, when subtropical storm Alpha formed just off the coast of Portugal. It was followed later in the day by tropical storm Beta, which formed in the western Gulf of Mexico.
The same practice will govern storm names for the rest of hurricane season, which lasts until the end of November.
The only other time the hurricane centre dipped into the Greek alphabet, was the deadly 2005 hurricane season, which included Hurricane Katrina's strike on New Orleans.
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Old 19-09-2020, 05:12   #58
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

Post-Tropical Depression Sally and Hurricane Teddy are both likely to have an impact on Atlantic Canada.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/weather/to...71w?li=AAggNb9
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Old 19-09-2020, 18:58   #59
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

I have to say that recent NHC tracks have been astonishingly good. Kind of beyond belief actually. Velocity forecasts not so much. But, I think that in the case of Sally, all the computing power in the world would have had a tough time forecasting landfall of a hurricane moving at 2 mph.

The disappointing thing is that the NHC should have said, “hey, we have no freaking idea where this thing will make landfall” and prepared a wider area. If I recall though, the cone was awfully broad and squashed due to lack of forward speed. Pensacola was always going to be on the eastern side of Sally, it was only a matter of how far. As we all know, anywhere east of a hurricane is a bad place to be. Well, west ain’t so great either as we learned with Matthew.
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Old 20-09-2020, 10:51   #60
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Re: Tropical Storm Sally

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we have underground utilities and in 5 years we lost power 3 or 4 times. once after a heavy snow it was for 12 hours. i think it is more reliable than poles especially in areas with lots of trees. then again we have an elevation of over 2000 feet. Ivan hit this place too
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Originally Posted by Franziska View Post
This, put it once underground in a proper way at a one time higher cost.
Than mostly be able to forget about it and save with each year.

It's not rocket science to dig in cables, neither is it to make them waterproof. Large parts of Europe do it this way, telephone lines, electrics, everything under ground.
Exception from the rule large very high voltage long distance lines.

As we have transatlantic cables for over 100 years, it can not be so complicated to waterproof those cables.
Fanziska, did you notice that gonesail, while having underground power, has still lost power 3-4 times?

In some areas of the US, especially in the south, the water table is just near the surface, and one does not have to dig deep to hit water. Submarine cables that cross oceans are very complicated devices and not comparable.

The problem with underground utilities is that if water does get into the cable, you have to dig up and replace the affected length. This is time consuming and expensive. Most downed power lines are put right back up very quickly. It becomes time consuming if the power pole has to be replaced. Replacing a power pole is fast and cheap compared to finding the fault in an underground line, then digging it up for replacement.

In other areas putting in underground utilities means digging a trench in rock which will cost a fortune. Then there is crossing creeks, rivers, wet areas. Our power supply is underground for a short distance then it is on poles. When the power lines were built, I don't think the power company was putting in underground power anywhere in the state except maybe in cities. In any case, the lines have to cross a creek, and back then there was no way to really go under a creek. I think that could be done today with directional drilling but not when the power lines were put up.

One also has to realize the population density of US states vs EU countries. That affects the financing for these projects. It is one thing to bury utilities when many people per mile/km area serviced vs only one or two.

We literally are at the end of the power line, and even though our connection to the grid is underground, the power to our underground service is above ground. In spite of that vulnerability, we have only lost power for more than 8 hours 5-6 times in the last 15 years. We have only been without power for more than a day 2-3 times.

I saw an estimate for the cost of burying my state's utilities would raise rates by 125%. I would guess that is a low estimate too since a project of that size seldom comes in on budget. The rate payers are not going to stand for that kind of rate increase. I certainly do not want to more than double my power bill for the rest of my life in this house to minimize our already limited power outages. It is not worth the cost.

The cost of a underground power is estimated at 4-14 times more than above ground. Underground power lines require maintenance, they are not maintenance free, and that maintenance is far more expensive the above ground service. Which is "better," above ground vs below ground utilities, is not an easy question to answer. It certainly depends on population density, easy of burying the lines, risk, expense to repair above ground utilities, etc.

Later,
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