The Outer Limits of COVID

[Pelagic]

This is fictional scuttlebutt exercise about what would happen to humanity if COVID mutated into a certain death scenario after the age of 30 where the Vaccines no longer could help with an older immune system



1....In 10 years time, what would be the world population?
2....Environmentally, would the Earth recover?
3....Educationally, would we go back to sustainable agriculture or focus on Sciences?
4.... Socially, would the youth go tribal or would a strong leader consolidate the world's remaing population into fertile first world communies that are sustainable within this new 30 year lifespan?

Fictionally, ....could this be an elegant solution devised by well meaning Aliens...
.. And would Greta Thornburg approve?

[AndyEss]

I think you have far too much time on your hands, Pelagic.
It has to be a lack of teak on your boat. You can always tell about us traditionalists, we’re too tired to speculate on meaningless questions about the meaning of life.
And yoi do know it’s Saturday night of an extra long weekend holiday here in the US.
Can’t expect us to be sober to ponder on your scenario

[Singularity]

-No kidding more likely a solar event that knocks down grids about the world. That's <9 meals from anarchy stuff.
-Look at Chernobyl today. 5-legged wolves and plastic aside, stuff falls back to earthen quite quickly with people gone. But if no one was left, no one would see the AGW still getting worse.
-Mary Jane and opium farming would increase dramatically. Education would be mostly about arguing over best fertilizer, much as today.
-If that all virus stuff happens, just find a nice apartment downtown, load up on guns/ammo/booze, don't go out at night, stock the apartment with dolls more "modern" than the one Charlton Heston had.
-Consider checking your calorifier.

[Pelagic]

Common guys.. Indulge me!

[Yihang]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_Time

[cal40john]

All your answers are found by watching Logan's Run

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by cal40john

All your answers are found by watching Logan's Run

Nope....after 30, they can't sell you any more time

[goboatingnow]

You forget the most amazing thing , human ingenuity and creativity

Scientists would fix the death rate with new drugs
Pubs reopen
Party time

... oh wait , that’s next year

Remember when people as little as 6 months ago were saying covid would never have vaccine blah blah

The great thing about the future is we can’t for tell it , Largey because new inventions are just that , new.

[GordMay]

“The point of philosophy is to start with something so simple, as to seem not worth stating, and to end with something so paradoxical, that no one will believe it.” ~ Bertrand Russell

The Doppler effect is the tendency of stupid ideas to seem smarter, when you come at them rapidly.

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

... Remember when people as little as 6 months ago were saying covid would never have vaccine blah blah ...

No. I remember when "they" were worried that it would take years to develop & test a vaccine.
One of us fails the history test.

[Pelagic]

Guys,

The scenario I gave you is not up for rewriting.

Think of it as an A Priori Statement and analyze the consequences questioned in my first post

[Singularity]

0. Evolutionarily, age 30 has reproduced with the youth out of the cave such that age >30 is redundant. For that matter, age ~35-40 is when the gears start stripping, ever in good health, such that, except for childbirth death and trauma, rare infections, most people live to age 35 without technology (assuming vaccinated and drinking boiled water).

Nonetheless, genetic variability favors getting a few people past around age 47-50...sort of the end of puberty peaking here where temples get gray, brain pruning increases wisdom (all else equal). Few of these wise folks helps move things along. In some sub-cultures (including of Mayan) senicide was done to thwart older people using their (then genuinely recognized) advanced wisdom as a threat to the ~nutty desires of the youth who ordinarily outnumbered old people.....in a power struggle under those circumstances....senicide is favored.
But some % of old people ought to survive (think HIV that can have a mild clinical course if left untreated...rare....but normative).

1. [Do your own math....7.5b today]
Global population as of ~2020, by age.
Younger than 15 25.4%
10 to 24 years 23.7%
15 to 64 years 65.2%
Older than 64 9.3%

2. Earth will recover <2-4,000 years no matter what, notwithstanding nuke exposures. GBR will be colorful in the not to distant future...no matter what...as far as I'm concerned.

3/4. Education depends on the religious takeover or not, but certainly enclaves of pro-science/war groups start. Otherwise really cultural anthropology 101 stuff....all this has happened many times previously, you can read about how things play out in different directions. But perhaps look at every variable as on a pendulum of opposites (e.g. central control vs peripheral control of decisionmaking in a region) such that....across all cultures....you get smatterings of whatever pendulum at whatever spot at any given time. The more centered all the pendulums, the more peace.

But a renewed appreciate for nature, renewable ability to derive much pleasure (dopamine hits, etc) and knowledge simply by being alone in nature with zero technology (not even a boat). See this article about Charles Darwin and friends for what happens when (some people at least) are left alone...really no difference than famous prophets in history, all the 'into the wild' books (Melville, Verne, Thoreau, etc).
You Should Work Less Hours—Darwin Did

No matter what, 7.5 minutes after the big bang, "finance" people will show up, happy to pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today. These people will begin to take control somewhere around the 7.500...1 minute mark. Around the 7.500...10009 minute mark two other people will show up. One will insist that Whimpy needs representation to get the hamburger, the second will insist that representation is not needed, and that nothing can be done until a third party deliberates over this profound metaphysical question, such that by minute 8 the cast is fully reset.

[Montanan]

Since 2022 is close, perhaps a rewatch of the 1973 movie, Soylent Green is in order.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

[grantmc]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

.. And would Greta Thornburg approve?

Greta Thornburg, whoever she is might approve, but don't you mean Greta Thunberg?

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Remember when people as little as 6 months ago were saying covid would never have vaccine blah blah

If only life were so simple that we might all live our lives based on one line headliners.

What people? No I don't remember that, but I do remember it being reported that scientists behind the development of vaccines stated that it could take years rather than months to have full functioning, safe, universal immunisation. But also that they were optimistic that some sort of vaccine, appropriate for a percentage of the population, sufficient to facilitate herd immunity, might be available by end of 2020. Particularly given the similarity with SARS and other single linear RNA coronaviruses and the work on vaccines already done for those.

So us lay people all know that the Covid19 vaccines have been nearly a year in development, and we know human trials have been very short. Most of the testing has actually been computer simulation and modelling. And the developers had the benefit of considerable existing work. Wonderful.

But here's the rub.
Who will want to pull up their shirt sleeve and have one of the vaccines injected into their body?
What about having their children vaccinated, or deciding for their very aged Mum with dementia and a variety of other medical conditions in a rest home?

Are the drug companies behind the vaccines making claims that their vaccine is a universal safe vaccine? Do a few searches yourselves and you might be surprised.

Pfizer US, with FDA approval published their trial would include 100 children between 12 and 15 and 200 between 16 and 17. So does that mean it's ok for your 2 or 3 or 4 year old's to be vaccinated?

What about pregnant or lactating women, is it both safe for the woman and the baby(ies)? Reported by the Lancet that no trials have been done in pregnant women. And what about women who don't even know that they're pregnant? Were there any pregnant women in any of the trials? If so that would be very very unusual. Almost every trial is very careful to exclude possibly pregnant women. In fact it's reported (Pain Journal 2007, Inside Science 2017 and the journal Cancer 2009) that over 80% of all of their reported drug tests were male only.

Sometimes women are excluded because menstruation might interfere with the results. But mostly women have been excluded as a consequence of thalidomide.

How does the vaccine coexist with other drugs being ingested? Not talking here about illegal drugs but the myriad of medications and medical conditions that all populations include.

Oh and a significant aspect; how long will the recipient be protected? Here's a little gem from CDC: The vaccine will likely be highly effective at preventing disease but might not be as effective at preventing asymptomatic infection, where the recipient of the vaccine might not get sick but could still spread the virus.

Sorry OP but the statement you made is asinine and doesn't demonstrate any critical thinking whatsoever. It's just a meaningless headline and certainly doesn't pair up with your post about "human ingenuity and creativity".

What is a vaccine, what does it do and who can benefit are just some of the issues for consideration over and above the headline.

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

...........
.............................................


1....In 10 years time, what would be the world population?
2....Environmentally, would the Earth recover?
3....Educationally, would we go back to sustainable agriculture or focus on Sciences?
4.... Socially, would the youth go tribal or would a strong leader consolidate the world's remaing population into fertile first world communies that are sustainable within this new 30 year lifespan?

Fictionally, ....could this be an elegant solution devised by well meaning Aliens...
.. And would Greta Thornburg approve?

1. Lots more, 'cuz momma & poppa wouldn't be raggin' on the kids to stop f-ing (or f-ing around, so to speak). Without how to videos, they wouldn't know how to do anything.
2. Yes, 'cuz most of 'em don't even like to drive and don't even have cars. Can you imagine?!? I lusted after a car for freedom, and my family never had one! Now you get freedum by not wearing a mask!
3. Neither. They'd be busy making YouTube videos of everything except how to survive.
4. Some would go tribal --- they already are with the freedum carp. Others would be sustainable freaks and would find some way to alienate everyone else by telling them how to do everything.


No aliens required, we already have the RWNJs.


Greta would approve, until she didn't. But she'd sure stare ya down.

[Pelagic]

Thanks Stu, for getting into the spirit of a hypothetical, where, (for whatever reason)....over the next 10 years, there will be no one left older than 30.

Not surprised that the CF spirit is to try an "fix" the scenario, but that is against the rules

Asinine? ....perhaps if you take the concept of certain death over 30 personally, your choice to ignore.

I threw in the advanced Aliens culling a destructive race, simply to stamp this scenario as "Fixed" and without Earthbound conspiracy theories that could be solved.

This is not solvable by local science, even though many will try and the draconian nature of this culling, forces us to consider a predetermined future.


How woul you handle it?
I am interested in what the final "over 30‘s" would do to prepare the next generation to take over at 20, giving that next genwratio only 10 years left to guide their next generation, before they themseves die.

Singularity,
the global median age has*increased*from 21.5 years in 1970 to over 30 years in 2019. The global population breakdown by age*shows*that a quarter (26%) are younger than 14 years, 8% are older than 65, while half of the world population is the working age bracket between 25 and 65.

So by the first culling in 10 years we can guestimate that the population has initially decreased by 75%.

What does that mean for changes in childbearing decisions if the "elders" wanted humanity to continue?