Solar and wind outpaced Coal

[GordMay]

Solar and wind outpaced demand growth in the first half of 2025, as renewables overtook coal’s share in the global electricity mix.
Renewable energy sources generated more electricity than coal, globally, for the first time, in the first half of 2025, driven by rapid growth in China, and India, a report [1], by energy think tank, Ember, showed on Tuesday.
Renewables, such as wind and solar, supplied 5,072 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity, globally, between January and June, surpassing coal's 4,896 TWh, Ember said.

More about ➥ https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2rz08en2po

[1] “Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025" ~ by Ember
Full Report ➥ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insi...insights-2025/

Executive Summary ➥ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-mid-year-insights-2025/#executive-summary


And, in more bad news, for the coal industry:
"Thousands of minors, out of work, since death of Jefferey Epstein."

[barnakiel]

Hmmm. Very interesting.

Meanwhile, according to AI :

" (...)


In 2024,


- coal was the largest single source of electricity at approximately 34.4%,
- followed by natural gas at 22.1%,
- hydropower 14.4%,
- wind 8.1%,
- and solar 6.9%,
- with nuclear power providing 9.0%,


(...)"

Formulating the report as : "... A strong rise in solar, and to a lesser extent wind, led to renewables overtaking coal generation for the first time on record in the first half of 2025...."

vs.

Solar at just 7.0 % of the total just 12 month earlier ... (vs. coal being at 35% ...)

So there is probably quite a margin for further explanation of the data quoted (by both sources).

barnakiel

ps I bet on the AI data being correct. Coal and gas driving the supply side - and by huge margins too.

[grantmc]

Some really good news in the BBC report of the analysis. BBC reports are mostly well fact checked, although the base data may not be. The world is a big place. But let's just enjoy a win, even if just for a moment.

What the report is pointing out is that the facts are supportive that the trend and direction of renewable use is on track.

One point that the article makes, although somewhat indirectly is that renewable energy is far cheaper and easier to provide in remote localities. Typically small scale, totally standalone, often 12v systems that brings basic lighting and a couple of water pumps and the ability for people to charge their phones. Typically too, in my experience is that village itself implements these small stations, they don't have to wait for Government.

And ok it's sub-optimal but isolated villages can have some of the benefits of electricity without the significant cost of taking a grid network (and maintaining it) to remote places.

And sometimes there are unexpected and possibly negative consequences, for example: In Afghanistan, widespread use of solar-powered water pumps is lowering the water table, threatening long-term access to groundwater.

Thanks for posting Gordie.

[GordMay]

From another reliable source
According to the International Energy Agency:
“Globally, renewable power capacity is projected to increase almost 4 600 GW between 2025 and 2030 – double the deployment of the previous five years (2019-2024)...

... Electricity generation from renewables is expected to increase 60% – from 9 900 TWh in 2024 to 16 200 TWh in 2030.
In fact, renewables are expected to surpass coal at the end of 2025 (or by mid-2026 at the latest, depending on hydropower availability) to become the largest source of electricity generation globally. Solar PV alone accounts for over half of this increase, followed by wind (30%). The share of renewables in global electricity generation is projected to rise from 32% in 2024 to 43% by 2030, while the share of variable renewable energy sources set to almost double to 27%. Over 2025-2030, renewables are expected to meet over 90% of global electricity demand growth. ...”
➥ https://www.iea.org/reports/renewabl...le-electricity

Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025" ~ International Energy Agency [IEA]
Full Report ➥ https://www.iea.org/reports/electric...ar-update-2025
Executive Summary ➥ https://www.iea.org/reports/electric...cutive-summary

Originally Posted by IEA

“... Electricity generation from renewable energy sources is forecast to overtake coal-fired generation in our outlook. Depending on weather trends and economic developments, coal-fired output is expected to be surpassed by renewable generation as early as 2025 or by 2026 at the latest.
Following this milestone, coal’s share in total generation will drop below 33% for the first time in a century. Solar PV and wind energy are central to this shift, with their combined share of global electricity generation forecast to grow from 15% in 2024 to 17% in 2025, reaching almost 20% by 2026 – a near-fivefold increase from just 4% a decade ago...”

"Coal Mid-Year Update 2025" ~ International Energy Agency
Full ➥ https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-mid-year-update-2025
Overview ➥ https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-mid...-2025/overview

“Supply: Renewables grow the most, followed by gas and nuclear” ~ IEA
➥ https://www.iea.org/reports/electric...as-and-nuclear

Originally Posted by IEA

“As highlighted in our annual Electricity 2025 report, low-emissions energy sources are reaching new milestones globally in our forecast period. Renewables are poised to surpass coal-fired generation, depending on weather trends and economic developments, either as early as 2025 or in 2026. As a result, coal’s share in total generation is set to drop below 33% for the first time in the last 100 years...”

Originally Posted by barnakiel

...
barnakiel
ps I bet on the AI data being correct. Coal and gas driving the supply side - and by huge margins too.

Did you check any of your AI sources [if given]; and were any of them, from as late as September of this year?
Both of my sources were "Updates", just issued.

[GordMay]

FWIW:
The International Energy Agency [IEA] has a strong reputation, as a leading global authority, on energy data, analysis, and policy, with its World Energy Outlook being a highly respected source, for long-term energy scenarios.
The IEA's Energy Data Centre is considered the most authoritative and comprehensive source of global energy data.


However, they are not totally un-criticized.
“Recapping a (Respectful) Dialogue About IEA Analysis” ~ Jason Bordoff & Robert McNally, for the Center on Global Energy Policy, at Columbia
➥ https://www.energypolicy.columbia.ed...-iea-analysis/

[catsketcher]

I really like Our world in data - they use graphs! It is a great source for my Science classes. When I look at the mix it certainly seems as though coal is still being used a lot with a slight reduction IN PROPORTION BUT NOT AMOUNT and renewables are increasing their share. You can see how individual countries are going on each graph.

https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix

Interestingly, it shows that the total amount of electricity produced by coal has actually increased as we "transition" to renewables. It is just that the amount of energy used has increased dramatically (from 10 terawatt hours in 1985 to 30 TWH in 2024) and much of this increase has been taken up by renewables. We have't reduced the amount of coal being burnt at all as this transition has occurred.

[OZwingle]

"One point that the article makes, although somewhat indirectly is that renewable energy is far cheaper and easier to provide in remote localities. Typically small scale, totally standalone, often 12v systems that brings basic lighting and a couple of water pumps and the ability for people to charge their phones.... And ok it's sub-optimal but isolated villages can have some of the benefits of electricity without the significant cost of taking a grid network (and maintaining it) to remote places. "


This is what we found in Cook Islands, Tonga, and Fiji. Solar installs per househould. Single post, panel, battery pack. In Fiji, government would provide and install, charging household FJ$ 5 per month (~ $ 2.20 US). Obviously, this did not pay for the power. It was the lease and if (when) cyclones would wipe out the village, the government would replace all the solar installs. Not being on the grid, not being networked, was an significant advantage is these remote islands where cyclones or eruptions (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunga_...a_Ha%CA%BBapai) can wipe out infrastructure. It's a feature, not a bug.
In the US, widely distributed solar with household battery packs, and networked over a smart grid would be a significant increase in grid resilience.

[grantmc]

Originally Posted by OZwingle

This is what we found in Cook Islands, Tonga, and Fiji. Solar installs per household. Single post, panel, battery pack. In Fiji, government would provide and install, charging household FJ$ 5 per month (~ $ 2.20 US). Obviously, this did not pay for the power. It was the lease and if (when) cyclones would wipe out the village, the government would replace all the solar installs. Not being on the grid, not being networked, was an significant advantage is these remote islands where cyclones or eruptions (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunga_...a_Ha%CA%BBapai) can wipe out infrastructure. It's a feature, not a bug.
In the US, widely distributed solar with household battery packs, and networked over a smart grid would be a significant increase in grid resilience.

I'm on the big Feejee Island Venua Levu and it's still very undeveloped, and apart from on the main link roads you don't see many power poles. A hundred or so isolated villages, most with very little electricity, many with the only water being a river and drop toilets. Super primitive by Western standards. And of course it's even more complex and very expensive to run marine cabling to islands.

In fact travel to/from most remote islands is really expensive too of course, and mostly undertaken by open long boats.

The standalone village infrastructure previously was diesel generators (or more commonly, nothing). And storms sure are a hazard.

On a separate point, and honestly I've no knowledge of this. But I assume that coal fired and gas/oil generation plants mostly now have chimney filters, reprocessing of smoke etc to minimise their pollution?

All generations systems have an environmental cost. In New Zealand we (as a country) have for a long time celebrated out use of Hydro (Clean and Green!.

Well not so. Hydro causes immense damage to rivers and the wider environment they run through. Far higher chance of flooding for example, destroys marine life and puts artificial lakes (some enormous) where there wasn't one before..

[OZwingle]

"I'm on the big Feejee Island Venua Levu and it's still very undeveloped, and apart from on the main link roads you don't see many power poles. A hundred or so isolated villages, most with very little electricity, many with the only water being a river and drop toilets. Super primitive by Western standards. And of course it's even more complex and very expensive to run marine cabling to islands."

Yes, I would agree. Observations of small scale solar was limited to a few villages, and yet encouraging. No power poles required, no cabling required.

[GordMay]

A new study [1], from the University of Surrey, named solar energy the cheapest source of power, outranking other renewables, such as wind, as well as coal and gas.

Due to the price of lithium-ion batteries falling by 89 per cent since 2010, the study also found that making solar-plus-storage systems is now equally as cost-effective as gas power plants.

Data, from Eurostat [2], recently found that renewable energy sources hit 54%, between April and June this year, a 1.3% increase, compared to the same period in 2024.

This increase was mostly due to solar energy, which generated a total of 122 317 gigawatt-hours [GWh], in the second quarter of 2025, representing 19.9% of the total electricity generation mix.
June 2025 was the first month in history, where solar was the main source of electricity, generated in the EU, accounting for 22% of the energy mix.
This was closely followed by nuclear [21.6%], wind [15.8%, hydro [14.1%], and natural gas [13.8%].

“Solar energy is now the world's cheapest source of power, study finds” ~ by University of Surrey
➥ https://techxplore.com/news/2025-10-...st-source.html

[1] “Solar Energy in 2025: Global Deployment, Cost Trends, and the Role of Energy Storage in Enabling a Resilient Smart Energy Infrastructure” ~ by Ehsan Rezaee, & S. Ravi P. Silva
➥ https://www.authorea.com/users/96097...infrastructure

[2] “Solar: main source of EU electricity in June with 22%” ~ by Eurosat
➥ https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web...ddn-20250929-3

[GordMay]

Solar panels, positioned in space, could be harnessed to continuously supply up to 80% of Europe’s renewable energy, by 2050, a new study [1] says.
Researchers, from King’s College London, estimate that, within decades, space-based solar power could cut the total costs of Europe’s grid, by 7 to 15%.

In space, you have the ability to position solar panels to always face the sun, which means power generation can be nearly continuous, compared to the daily pattern on Earth.
And, because it’s in space, the solar radiation is higher, than on the Earth's surface.

The study [1] analysed the potential of designs by NASA [ Heliostat Swarm, & the Mature Planar Array], for solar generation, which is planned to be in use by 2050. The findings show the design could also save money, by reducing the cost of the whole power system in Europe, by up to 15%, including energy generation, storage, and network infrastructure costs – an estimated saving of 35.9 billion euros per year.

Key Takeaways
Space-based solar could cut Europe’s grid costs by 7%–15%.
Continuous power from orbit may offset 80% of wind and solar.
NASA-inspired designs need major breakthroughs to succeed.

More about:
“Solar panels in space could cut Europe's renewable energy needs by 80%” ~ King’s College London
➥ https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/solar-pan...gy-needs-by-80

[1] “Space solar power generation: A viable system proposal and technoeconomic analysis” ~ by Oren S. Mizrahi et al Wei He et al
➥ https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/...351(25)00109-6

See also:
“Towards net zero: A technological review on the potential of space-based solar power and wireless power transmission” ~ by Khandoker Shahjahan Alam et al
➥ https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...05844024060274