Ocean acidifcation .

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Exile

Scientific opinions run the spectrum of CO2 causing all the warming to it being inconsequential. The "official" IPCC view is that it is a "significant" cause of the warming, implying there's at least a portion that can likely be ascribed to natural forces (got it this time L-E? ).

here's some spectrum running:

Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals1 show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree*: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position.

You have but to show the world that the CO2 or something else from natural forces would have caused warming anyway, and the whole case for humans causing Climate Change will blow away like yesterday's dandelions.

If you or anyone else cannot... we need to go with what we know, right?

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

So which story is true? Yours or PSI's?

https://principia-scientific.org/mic...pers-collapse/

follow the money

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

You have but to show the world that the CO2 or something else from natural forces would have caused warming anyway, and the whole cause of Climate Change will blow away like yesterday's dandelions.

If you or anyone else cannot... we need to go with what we know, right?

I did but the MMGWC still passes the collection plate .

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

One point to note is that there are an awful lot of, what I'd call, junk research papers that are produced by non climate scientists adding to the noise.

I can identify some. Can you? It is your assertion after all.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by jackdale

They do not. Valentina Zharkova, one of newhaul's favourites, has been published in Nature.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3

For some reason he is ignoring her conclusions.

You mean this conclusion?

"These oscillations of the estimated terrestrial temperature do not include any human-induced factors, which were outside the scope of the current paper."

Not sure you want to use this paper to support your unfounded statement that publications are avoiding publishing science which supports the theory that GW is not man-made. But maybe you spent as much time reading the Zharkova paper as the post I wrote that you so quickly called BS on.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

It is equally entertaining watching someone who posted a paper undergoing peer-review as an undergraduate text in climate science.

you mean like the hockey stick ?

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

follow the money

Great non-answer.

PSI says Michael Mann is facing bankruptcy, you say he is a multi-millionaire. Are you both right?

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

you mean like the hockey stick ?

Replicated over 3 dozen times.

Crowley, T. J. 2000. Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years. Science 289:270-277: Used both his own and Mann et al. (1999)'s hockey sticks to examine the cause of temperature changes over the past 1,000 years. Found that natural forcings could not explain twentieth century warming without the effect of greenhouse gases.

Huang, S, H. N. Pollack, and P. Shen. 2000. Temperature Trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature 403:756-758: Reconstructed global average temperatures since AD 1500 using temperature data from 616 boreholes from around the globe.

Bertrand, C., M. Loutre, M. Crucifix, and A. Berger. 2002. Climate of the Last Millenium: A Sensitivity Study. Tellus 54A:221-244.: Reconstructed solar output, volcanic activity, land use changes, and greenhouse gas concentrations since AD 1000, then computed the expected temperature changes due to those forcings. Compared the computed temperature changes with two independent temperature reconstructions.

Esper, J., E. R. Cook, and F. H. Schweingruber. 2002. Low-frequency Signals in Long Tree-ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability. Science 295:2250-2253: Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures between AD 800 and AD 2000 using tree ring chronologies.

Cronin, T. M., G. S. Dwyer, T. Kamiya, S. Schwede, and D. A. Willard. 2003. Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th Century Temperature Variability from Chesapeake Bay. Global and Planetary Change 36: 17-29: Reconstructed temperatures between 200 BC and AD 2000 around Chesapeake Bay, USA, using sediment core records.

Pollack, H. N. and J. E. Smerdon. 2004. Borehole Climate Reconstructions: Spatial Structure and Hemispheric Averages. Journal of Geophysical Research 10911106: Reconstructed global average temperatures since AD 1500 using temperature data from 695 boreholes from around the globe.

Esper, J., R. J. S. Wilson, D. C. Frank, A. Moberg, H. Wanner, and J. Luterbacher. 2005. Climate: Past Ranges and Future Changes. Quarternary Science Reviews 24:2164-2166: Compared and averaged five independent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1000 to AD 2000.

Moberg, A., D. M. Sonechkin, K. Holmgren, N. M. Datsenko, and W. Karlen. 2005. Highly Variable Northern Hemisphere Temperatures Reconstructed from Low- and High-resolution Proxy Data. Nature 433:613-617: Combined tree ring proxies with glacial ice cores, stalagmite, and lake sediment proxies to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1 to AD 2000.

Oerlemans, J. 2005. Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records. Science 308:675-677: Reconstructed global temperatures from AD 1500 to AD 2000 using 169 glacial ice proxies from around the globe.

Rutherford, S., M. E. Mann, T. J. Osborn, R. S. Bradley, K. R. Briffa, M. K. Hughes, and P. D. Jones. 2005. Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Method, Predictor Network, Target Season, and Target Domain. Journal of Climate 18:2308-2329: Compared two multi-proxy temperature reconstructions and tested the results of each reconstruction for sensitivity to type of statistics used, proxy characteristics, seasonal variation, and geographic location. Concluded that the reconstructions were robust to various sources of error.

D'Arrigo, R. R. Wilson, and G. Jacoby. 2006. On the Long-term Context for Late Twentieth Century Warming. Journal of Geophysical Research 11103103: Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures between AD 700 and AD 2000 from multiple tree ring proxies using a new statistical technique called Regional Curve Standardization. Concluded that their new technique was superior to the older technique used by previous reconstructions.

Osborn, T. J. and K. R. Briffa. 2006. The Spatial Extent of 20th-century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years. Science 841-844: Used 14 regional temperature reconstructions between AD 800 and AD 2000 to compare spatial extent of changes in Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Found that twentieth century warming was more widespread than any other temperature change of the past 1,200 years.

Hegerl, G. C., T. J. Crowley, M. Allen, W. T. Hyde, H. N. Pollack, J. Smerdon, and E. Zorita. 2007. Detection of Human Influence on a New, Validated 1500-year Temperature Reconstruction. Journal of Climate 20:650-666: Combined borehole temperatures and tree ring proxies to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the past 1,450 years. Introduced a new calibration technique between proxy temperatures and instrumental temperatures.

Juckes, M. N., M. R. Allen, K. R. Briffa, J. Esper, G. C. Hegerl, A. Moberg, T. J. Osborn, and S. L. Weber. 2007. Millenial Temperature Reconstruction Intercomparison and Evaluation. Climate of the Past 3:591-609: Combined multiple older reconstructions into a meta-analysis. Also used existing proxies to calculate a new Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction.

Wahl, E. R. and C. M. Ammann. 2007. Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes Reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperatures: Examination of Criticisms Based on the Nature and Processing of Proxy Climate Evidence. Climatic Change 85:33-69: Used the tree ring proxies, glacial proxies, and borehole proxies used by Mann et al. (1998, 1999) to recalculate Northern Hemisphere temperatures since AD 800. Refuted the McIntyre and McKitrick criticisms and showed that those criticisms were based on flawed statistical techniques.

Wilson, R., R. D'Arrigo, B. Buckley, U. Büntgen, J. Esper, D. Frank, B. Luckman, S. Payette, R. Vose, and D. Youngblut. 2007. A Matter of Divergence: Tracking Recent Warming at Hemispheric Scales Using Tree Ring Data. Journal of Geophysical Research 11217103: Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1750 to AD 2000 using tree ring proxies that did not show a divergence problem after AD 1960.

Mann, M. E., Z. Zhang, M. K. Hughes, R. S. Bradley, S. K. Miller, S. Rutherford, and F. Ni. 2008. Proxy-based Reconstructions of Hemispheric and Global Surface Temperature Variations over the Past Two Millenium. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105:13252-13257: Reconstructed global temperatures between AD 200 and AD 2000 using 1,209 independent proxies ranging from tree rings to boreholes to sediment cores to stalagmite cores to Greenland and Antarctic ice cores.

Kaufman, D. S., D. P. Schneider, N. P. McKay, C. M. Ammann, R. S. Bradley, K. R. Briffa, G. H. Miller, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, J. T. Overpeck, B. M. Vinther, and Arctic Lakes 2k Project Members. 2009. Recent Warming Reverses Long-term Arctic Cooling. Science 325:1236-1239: Used tree rings, lake sediment cores, and glacial ice cores to reconstruct Arctic temperatures between 1 BC and 2000 AD.

von Storch, H., E. Zorita, and F. González-Rouco. 2009. Assessment of Three Temperature Reconstruction Methods in the Virtual Reality of a Climate Simulation. International Journal of Earth Science 98:67-82: Tested three different temperature reconstruction techniques to show that the Composite plus Scaling method was better than the other two methods.

Frank, D., J. Esper, E. Zorita, and R. Wilson. 2010. A Noodle, Hockey Stick, and Spaghetti Plate: A Perspective on High-resolution Paleoclimatology. Climate Change 1:507-516: A brief history of proxy temperature reconstructions, as well as analysis of the main questions remaining in temperature reconstructions.

Kellerhals, T., S. Brütsch, M. Sigl, S. Knüsel, H. W. Gäggeler, and M. Schwikowski. 2010. Ammonium Concentration in Ice Cores: A New Proxy for Regional Reconstruction? Journal of Geophysical Research 11516123: Used ammonium concentration in a glacial ice core to reconstruct tropical South American temperatures over the past 1,600 years.

Ljungqvist, F. C. 2010. A New Reconstruction of Temperature Variability in the Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere During the Last Two Millenia. Geografiska Annaler: Series A Physical Geography 92:339-351 : Reconstructed extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1 to AD 2000 using historical records, sediment cores, tree rings, and stalagmites.

Thibodeau, B., A. de Vernal, C. Hillaire-Marcel, and A. Mucci. 2010. Twentieth Century Warming in Deep Waters of the Gulf of St. Lawrence: A Unique Feature of the Last Millenium. Geophysical Research Letters 37:L17604: Reconstructed temperatures at the bottom of the Gulf of St. Lawrence since AD 1000 via sediment cores.

Tingley, M. P. and P. Huybers. 2010. A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time. Part I: Development and Application to Paleoclimate Reconstruction Problems. Journal of Climate 23:2759-2781.

Tingley, M. P. and P. Huybers. 2010. A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time. Part II: Comparison with the Regularized Expectation Maximum Algorithm. Journal of Climate 23:2782-2800. Both Tingley and Huybers papers revolved around the same reconstruction, in which they derived and used a Bayesian approach to reconstruct North American temperatures.

Büntgen, U., W. Tegel, K. Nicolussi, M. McCormick, D. Frank, V. Trouet, J. O. Kaplan, F. Herzig, K. Heussner, H. Wanner, J. Luterbacher, and J. Esper. 2011. 2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility. Science 331:578-582: Used tree ring proxies to reconstruct Central European temperatures between 500 BC and AD 2000.

Kemp, A. C., B. P. Horton, J. P. Donnelly, M. E. Mann, M. Vermeer, and S. Rahmstorf. 2011. Climate Related Sea-level Variations Over the Past Two Millenia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108:11017-11022: Reconstructed sea levels off North Carolina, USA from 100 BC to AD 2000 using sediment cores. They also showed that sea levels changed with global temperature for at least the past millennium.

Kinnard, C. C. M. Zdanowicz, D. A. Fisher, E. Isaksson, A. de Vernal, and L. G. Thompson. 2011. Reconstructed Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Over the Past 1,450 Years. Nature 479:509-512: Used multiple proxies to reconstruct late summer Arctic sea ice between AD 561 and AD 1995, using instrumental data to extend their record to AD 2000.

Martín-Chivelet, J., M. B. Muñoz-García, R. L. Edwards, M. J. Turrero, and A. L. Ortega. 2011. Land Surface Temperature Changes in Northern Iberia Since 4000 yr BP, Based on δ13C of Speleothems. Global and Planetary Change 77:1-12: Reconstructed temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula from 2000 BC to AD 2000 using stalagmites.

Spielhagen, R. F., K. Werner, S. A. Sørensen, K. Zamelczyk, E. Kandiano, G. Budeus, K. Husum, T. M. Marchitto, and M. Hald. 2011. Enhanced Modern Heat Transfer to the Arctic by Warm Atlantic Water. Science 331:450-453 : Reconstructed marine temperatures in the Fram Strait from 100 BC to AD 2000 using sediment cores.

Esper et al. 2012: Used tree ring proxies to reconstruct Northern Scandinavian temperatures 100 BC to AD 2000. May have solved the post-AD 1960 tree ring divergence problem.

Ljungqvist et al. 2012: Used a network of 120 tree ring proxies, ice core proxies, pollen records, sediment cores, and historical documents to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures between AD 800 and AD 2000, with emphasis on proxies recording the Medieval Warm Period.

Melvin, T. M., H. Grudd, and K. R. Briffa. 2012. Potential Bias in 'Updating' Tree-ring Chronologies Using Regional Curve Standardisation: Re-processing 1500 Years of Torneträsk Density and Ring-width Data. The Holocene 23:364-373: Reanalyzed tree ring data for the Torneträsk region of northern Sweden.

Abram, N. J., R. Mulvaney, E. W. Wolff, J. Triest, S. Kipfstuhl, L. D. Trusel, F. Vimeux, L. Fleet, and C. Arrowsmith. 2013. Acceleration of Snow Melt in an Antarctic Peninsula Ice Core During the Twentieth Century. Nature Geoscience 6:404-411: Reconstructed snow melt records and temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula since AD 1000 using ice core records.

Marcott, S. A., J. D. Shakun, P. U. Clark, and A. C. Mix. 2013. A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years. Science 339:1198-1201: Reconstructed global temperatures over the past 11,000 years using sediment cores. Data ended at AD 1940.

PAGES 2k Consortium. 2013. Continental-scale Temperature Variability During the Past Two Millennia. Nature Geoscience 6:339-346: Used multiple proxies (tree rings, sediment cores, ice cores, stalagmites, pollen, etc) to reconstruct regional and global temperatures since AD 1.

Rohde, R., R. A. Muller, R. Jacobsen, E. Muller, S. Perimutter, A. Rosenfeld, J. Wurtele, D. Groom, and C. Wickham. 2013. A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011. Geoinformatics and Geostatistics: An Overview 1:1-7: Used proxy and instrumental records to reconstruct global temperatures from AD 1753 to AD 2011.

Wilson, R., K. Anchukaitis, K. R. Briffa, U. Büntgen, E. Cook, R. D'Arrigo, N. Davi, J. Esper, D. Frank, B. Gunnarson, G. Hegerl, S. Helama, S. Klesse, P. J. Krusic, H. W. Linderholm, V. Myglan, T. J. Osborn, M. Rydval, L. Schneider, A. Schurer, G. Wiles, P. Zhang, and E. Zorita. 2016. Last Millennium Northern Hemisphere Summer Temperatures from Tree rings: Part I: The Long Term Context. Quarternary Science Reviews 134:1-18. Introduces and details the new N-TREND2015 temperature reconstruction using 54 proxy records.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

I can identify some. Can you? It is your assertion after all.

lets see a paper by a geology undergrad on dendrochronology that misidentified cool dry conditions as being warm dry .

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Exile

You mean this conclusion?

"These oscillations of the estimated terrestrial temperature do not include any human-induced factors, which were outside the scope of the current paper."

Not sure you want to use this paper to support your unfounded statement that publications are avoiding publishing science which supports the theory that GW is not man-made. But maybe you spent as much time reading the Zharkova paper as the post I wrote that you so quickly called BS on.

This one

This trend is anticipated to continue in the next six centuries that can lead to a further natural increase of the terrestrial temperature by more than 2.5 °C by 2600.

But she only considers natural forcings in the paper, while in interviews she affirms role role of CO2 as GHG and that any GSM will allow us time to deal more effectively with global warming.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Replicated over 3 dozen times.

all using the same Squed base identification of how tree rings grow which is similar in both cold drought like conditions as well as the warm drought conditions they pre disposed to use.

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by jackdale

I can identify some. Can you? It is your assertion after all.

I'll start with fish's sense of smell in the 22nd century.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

This one



But she only considers natural forcings in the paper, while in interviews she affirms role role of CO2 as GHG and that any GSM will allow us time to deal more effectively with global warming.

lets see how much we cool in the next 40 to 50 years that the GSM is expected to last before you jump to the conclusion that in 600 years we will be 2.5℃ above ( what temperature is as yet to be determined ) above the temperature now? Or the temperature that we cool to during the upcoming forecast GSM?

She doesn't say i ask you do you have the crystal ball jack? He'll we both will be crab bait long before that so what's the issue?

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

here's some spectrum running:


You have but to show the world that the CO2 or something else from natural forces would have caused warming anyway, and the whole case for humans causing Climate Change will blow away like yesterday's dandelions.

If you or anyone else cannot... we need to go with what we know, right?

The 97% 99% Cook studies again? Really? Look at your quote again:

"97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree"

I frankly don't even understand why you're still pushing this one, or ever pushed it. Your argument is with all those skeptic scientists, and no, there's quite a few more than just SPENCER, SPENCER, SPENCER, SPENCER, SPENCER.

[Hardhead]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

They're not lying. It's just that there job requires them to discover new knowledge to remain employed. Run out of new knowledge to discover, they're out of a job. Just try and get a job these days as a paid explorer, for example.

What's wrong with that? That's the way it should be - as far as I can tell. I don't logically understand how that stands as criticism of scientific research establishing the existence of MMGW.

The research subject (climate here) is observed, quantified, and analyzed, according to scientific method - end of story from a science perspective.

Is the standard supposed to be that any scientist who does not conclude "there is nothing more to ever be learned about climate" -- that the scientist must therefore not be credible?

On the other hand, if there is something more to be learned about a subject, and a scientist discovers it - he/she must therefore not be credible?

I've never heard of any 1st world government just saying they are going to stop paying for scientific research of the earth's climate. If no one is ever going to say that - why wouldn't the scientists have a job either way, no matter what their research shows, way back from the beginning? When, exactly, would that fear of unemployment have started?

Why would observed and quantified scientific data "go along" in "numbers" with a mass conspiracy, and not just be what it, in fact, is?

Why would the vast majority of human climate scientists ever start such a huge, thousand part, conspiracy in the 1st place, and not just do the jobs they were paid for?

I'm not trying to make any argument - just understand the literal nuts and bolts of the conspiracy theory - on a literal ground level. How it actually, in real life, is alleged to have actually happened. I've heard a ton of vague accusations, but always in such sweeping generalities - there is no way to plug the accusations into the actual history of climate science research. Climate research was getting funded, no matter what it was finding, from the beginning, and it was always going to be funded. It's a major part of our planet, and it's always changing. So why would scientists ever feel like they needed to save their jobs from the git-go?

When did it all start, exactly?