Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

[Group9]

There is a reason that war is perpetual.

[SailOar]

Originally Posted by Group9

I arrested a really good con man one time, and he told me that the very best person to run a con on, was one who had already been a victim of a con. Because, he knew that if they were stupid enough to fall for it once, they would probably fall for it again.

The Democras and the Republicans have adopted this same strategy, with great success.

We've all been conned at one time or another.

[Group9]

Originally Posted by SailOar

We've all been conned at one time or another.

He had some great stories. The stories of people he conned twice with the exact same con were pretty interesting. Complete sociopath, of course.

I worked nothing but financial scams like that for a year and a half and our favorite saying was that if you could have raised the IQ average by 10 points, we probably wouldn't have had a job.

[SailOar]

a journal article...

The Shocking Paper Predicting the End of Democracy

and the paper itself...

Democracy Devouring Itself: The Rise of the Incompetent Citizen and the Appeal of Populism

ABSTRACT

In many of the established democracies of Europe and North America, populist alternatives to democratic governance are gaining popularity and political power. In attempting to make sense of these developments, I argue, unlike many, that the rise of populism is not simply a passing response to fluctuating circumstances such as economic recession or increased immigration and thus a momentary retreat in the progress toward ever greater democratization. Instead I suggest current developments reflect an underlying structural weakness inherent in democratic governance, one that makes democracies always susceptible to the siren call of right wing populism. The weakness is the relative inability of the citizens of the modern, multicultural democracies to meet the demands the polity imposes upon them. Drawing on a wide range of research in political science and psychology, I argue that citizens typically do not have the cognitive or emotional capacities required. Thus they are typically left to navigate in political reality that is ill understood and frightening. Populism offers an alternative view of politics and society which is more readily understood and more emotionally satisfying. In this context, I suggest that as practices in countries such as the United States become increasingly democratic, this structural weakness is more clearly exposed and consequential, and the vulnerability of democratic governance to populism becomes greater. The conclusion is that democracy is likely to devour itself. In the hope that it may not, I briefly consider the kinds of institutional changes that are necessary to facilitate the development of the citizenry democracy requires.

For 60 years after the end of World War II, democratic governance has flourished and expanded its reach. Now it appears this process has stalled and is even reversing in many of the established democracies of Europe and North America. Momentum appears to be with populist, particularly right wing populist, alternatives to democratic governance. In Western Europe, this is evident in the rise of the AfD in German, the success of the ‘leave’ vote in the UK, in the growing popularity of the Northern League in Italy, and in Marie Le Pen reaching the second stage of the French presidential elections. In Eastern Europe it is apparent in among the newly established democracies of Eastern Europe as is exemplified by the rise to power of the Freedom and Justice Party in Poland and the Fidesz party in Hungary. By some metrics, the right wing populist share of the popular vote in Europe overall has more than tripled from 4% in 1998 to approximately 13% in 2018, with the vote for populists of one stripe or another rising to 25% (Lewis et al., 2018). Right wing populist parties have won enough votes to place their members in government in 10 European countries. Also significant is the success of right wing populist movements in the United States with the emergence of the Tea Party and culminating in the election of Donald Trump as President in 2016. Among advocates of democratic governance, this has raised serious concerns about the current well-being and future prospects of democracy (Levitsky and Ziblatt, 2018).

Here I focus on specifically liberal democratic governance, with its emphasis on rule of laws and individual and minority rights and on right wing populism because of its greater presence in North America and Europe (although not much additional is required to address to left wing populism as well.). In examining the rise of right wing populism, I argue that it is not the result of fluctuating circumstances, such as economic recession, income inequality or migration, nor can it be regarded as a momentary retreat in the progress toward ever greater democratization. Instead I suggest it reflects a structural weakness inherent in democratic governance, one that renders democracies always susceptible to the siren call of populism. In making this argument, I begin by comparing the demands placed upon the citizenry by liberal democracy on the one hand and populism on the other. Drawing on research in political science and psychology, I then consider the capability of citizens to play the roles required by each of these two competing visions of governance. I conclude that citizens lack the capacity to meet the requirements of liberal democratic governance and therefore will find its principles and practices incomprehensible, alien and difficult to enact. However for most people, populism offers a vision, values and practices which can be more readily understood, embraced and executed. In this light, I argue that, as practices in countries such as the United States become increasingly democratic, this structural weakness is more clearly exposed and consequential. In the process, the vulnerability of democratic governance to right wing populist alternatives becomes greater. Hence the conclusion that democracy is likely to devour itself.