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Old 21-05-2019, 04:53   #31
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pirate Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

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Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
Ummm, no.

Too lazy to look up which logical fallacy(ies) is(are) in play here, but the research is nothing about correlation or causation; it is about the amount of effect a known cause has (or doesn't have) on an outcome.

Seems that either a particular set of personality traits or, perhaps, an agenda, or maybe both, is in evidence...

A couple of classic examples of does 'cause (not) equal correlation'.

Lead exposure and US crime rate.



Effects of income inequality on religiosity within a society.







Last I checked there were no 'rules' (yet) restricting, nay, even defining 'off-topic'...



Certainly seems the same tired old whiners would like to see that...perhaps this (my) post will help grant their nefarious wish...



Seems to me the effect is the opposite; because the internet is almost ubiquitous and anonymous, the 'protest' is muted and diluted from the false feeling that one has actually made a difference by twittering or facebooking or off-topicing, when it seems apparent that real change is brought about by (not literally) 'bodies on the street'. Notwithstanding the recent, hopefully transient effects, of the 'twitterer in chief'...
And.. it can be blamed on Russia, the Bogeyman under the American bed.
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Old 21-05-2019, 05:03   #32
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Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

Thank you, GordMay. That's very informative. --Tim.
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Old 21-05-2019, 05:24   #33
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Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

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Originally Posted by tkeithlu View Post
Dockhead, my impression from the movements I have been involved in (civil rights, Vietnam) is that a movement needs a range of approaches, from the bomb throwers to apply pressure to the negotiators to get political change. You've actively studied the area; could you comment on that impression?

Well, throwing bombs is violence. Violence begets more violence. This does not generally end well for anyone. Where there are reasonable democratic levers available, I can't imagine how one can justify throwing bombs. Where these levers don't exist, and in conditions of extreme oppression (North Korea? Nazi Germany?), that might be different.


There was not so much violence involved in Vietnam War protests, and what violence there was, was highly counterproductive, I believe.
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Old 21-05-2019, 05:37   #34
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pirate Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

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Well, throwing bombs is violence. Violence begets more violence. This does not generally end well for anyone. Where there are reasonable democratic levers available, I can't imagine how one can justify throwing bombs. Where these levers don't exist, and in conditions of extreme oppression (North Korea? Nazi Germany?), that might be different.


There was not so much violence involved in Vietnam War protests, and what violence there was, was highly counterproductive, I believe.
The violence usually is initiated by the State before its taken up by the protesters..
Not everyone is like the Ghandi protesters who filed down the road to be knocked down by police batons then carried away as the next line stepped forward to be beaten to the ground.. bravery that went on for hours.
Look at the Yellow Vests in France, deaths and blindings by police, as for Vietnam protests.. they looked pretty violent to me back in the 60's, the National Guard were seriously getting their rocks off.
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Old 21-05-2019, 08:27   #35
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Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
Ummm, no.

Too lazy to look up which logical fallacy(ies) is(are) in play here, but the research is nothing about correlation or causation; it is about the amount of effect a known cause has (or doesn't have) on an outcome.. . .



Ummm, and in what way is "the amount of effect a known cause has (or doesn't have) on an outcome" different from causation?


Whether the cause is "known" or unknown -- whatever that means -- the relationship between cause and effect, including the "amount", is -- causation.


What was being pointed out, and it is a valid point, was that the research described in the OP made the argument that protest movements tend to succeed if the participants exceed 3.5% of the population. It looks like a conclusion was being drawn that 3.5% of the population's participation in such a movement is the tipping point. Some examples were brought which show some correlation between these numbers, and the success of certain protest movements. But it was then argued by some on here, that the numbers involved are surely not enough by themselves, to cause social change, and reasons were stated.


All of this may or may not be correct, but correct or not, the structure of the argument is valid.
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Old 21-05-2019, 08:49   #36
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Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

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The violence usually is initiated by the State before its taken up by the protesters..
Not everyone is like the Ghandi protesters who filed down the road to be knocked down by police batons then carried away as the next line stepped forward to be beaten to the ground.. bravery that went on for hours.
Look at the Yellow Vests in France, deaths and blindings by police, as for Vietnam protests.. they looked pretty violent to me back in the 60's, the National Guard were seriously getting their rocks off.

Well, it can be. Both sides in these situations may be tempted to use violence either to scare each other, or to stimulate some reaction on the part of the greater population at large. That's what terrorism is all about, and it goes back to Bakunin and the "propaganda of the deed". Wise men may disagree about this, I guess, but I think that viciousness as a way to achieve (or prevent) some kind of social change is the road to hell. Look what the Narodnaya Volya ended up doing with Bakunin's theory -- they killed Alexander II, the most enlightened Tsar of the 19th century, who freed the serfs, and set Russia back 100 years, and caused almost universal revulsion at their cause.


What concerns Vietnam protests -- and I was there, albeit as a small boy -- they were widespread and 99% peaceful (and 99% of the remaining 1% "violent" protests generally meant shouting and throwing the odd rock). There was a bit of real violence on both sides -- Kent State comes to mind, and the Weather Underground. But the Weathermen were bombing property, and didn't actually kill anyone except their own, AFAICR. Kent State massively backfired and gave impetus to the anti-war movement. I don't think violence did anything but harm to the ones using it, on either side in the Vietnam War protest movement.
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Old 21-05-2019, 09:02   #37
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pirate Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

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Well, it can be. Both sides in these situations may be tempted to use violence either to scare each other, or to stimulate some reaction on the part of the greater population at large. That's what terrorism is all about, and it goes back to Bakunin and the "propaganda of the deed". Wise men may disagree about this, I guess, but I think that viciousness as a way to achieve (or prevent) some kind of social change is the road to hell. Look what the Narodnaya Volya ended up doing with Bakunin's theory -- they killed Alexander II, the most enlightened Tsar of the 19th century, who freed the serfs, and set Russia back 100 years, and caused almost universal revulsion at their cause.


What concerns Vietnam protests -- and I was there, albeit as a small boy -- they were widespread and 99% peaceful (and 99% of the remaining 1% "violent" protests generally meant shouting and throwing the odd rock). There was a bit of real violence on both sides -- Kent State comes to mind, and the Weather Underground. But the Weathermen were bombing property, and didn't actually kill anyone except their own, AFAICR. Kent State massively backfired and gave impetus to the anti-war movement. I don't think violence did anything but harm to the ones using it, on either side in the Vietnam War protest movement.
Not forgetting Jackson..
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Old 21-05-2019, 09:41   #38
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Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

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I don't think violence did anything but harm to the ones using it, on either side in the Vietnam War protest movement.
Ditto for the Civil Rights movement imo, although I've heard some make the case that the threat of violence from the more militant factions (represented by Malcolm X and the Muslim Brotherhood) gave more credibility to MLK and thus bolstered the more mainstream non-violent efforts.
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Old 21-05-2019, 09:55   #39
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Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

Again, quoting from the author:

“... I collected data on all major nonviolent and violent campaigns for the overthrow of a government or territorial liberation since 1900. The data cover the entire world and include every known campaign that consists of at least a thousand observed participants, which constitutes hundreds of cases.[3]...
... From 1900 to 2006, nonviolent campaigns worldwide were twice as likely to succeed outright as violent insurgencies. And there’s more. This trend has been increasing over time—in the last fifty years civil resistance has become increasingly frequent and effective, whereas violent insurgencies have become increasingly rare and unsuccessful. This is true even in extremely repressive, authoritarian conditions where we might expect nonviolent resistance to fail.[4]...
... no campaigns failed once they’d achieved the active and sustained participation of just 3.5% of the population—and lots of them succeeded with far less than that [5]...
... Every single campaign that did surpass that 3.5% threshold was a nonviolent one. In fact, campaigns that relied solely on nonviolent methods were on average four times larger than the average violent campaign...”

[3] https://nvdatabase.swarthmore.edu/

[4] http://www.ericachenoweth.com/wp-con...Appendix-1.pdf
https://rationalinsurgent.com/2011/0...nt-resistance/
Why Civil Resistance Works | Columbia University Press

[5] This figure is based on the highest number of observed participants directly confronting the opponent during the campaign. It does therefore not represent an aggregate number of participants, but rather that the maximum number of people the campaign involved in peak events.
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Old 21-05-2019, 10:39   #40
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Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

Gord,

There are lots of explanations for why movements succeed/fail. There is zero evidence in the statistics that 3.5% active protesters has squat diddly to do with whether that percentage is the critical tipping factor. 3.5% protesters is more likely the result of the underlying success factors than being the proximate cause.

Non-violent movements will always be more successful in a well governed country. It’s obvious that the more people that agree with the premise the more likely it is to succeed. It’s possible that 3.5% has some meaning. But if you believe that’s what is needed to effect societal change you are living in a dream world. You need a much higher percentage of silent citizens that agree with the 3.5%. Without that silent “hoard/majority” then the 3.5% protesters don’t have a prayer to succeed. In fact the more protesters probably the less likely they can effect policy without a much higher percentage of silent believers.
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Old 21-05-2019, 11:01   #41
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Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

In democracies anyway, there are polls, there are surveys, and there are studies, but what happens in the privacy of the ballot box is often an entirely differently matter.

Is it really a problem with the people who question the studies we should be concerned about, or rather the people conducting (and funding) those studies? I agree there has been growing mistrust, but not sure I agree where the blame is all too often attributed.
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Old 22-05-2019, 08:08   #42
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Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

The great revolutions of History that dramatically changed governments and policies were all the result of violence and bloodshed: France, USA, Haiti, Russia, China, Vietnam, Cuba, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Somalia. Some recent regime changes have been accomplished without all-out warfare: East Germany after the Cold War, Venezuela under Chavez, and North Korea under Kim as successor to his father as examples. Philosophy is empty when compared to the reality of History. Good luck and safe sailing . . . Rognvald
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Old 27-05-2019, 07:06   #43
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Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

The Police Trainer Who Teaches Cops to Kill | The New Yorker


Our (U.S.) police have become trigger happy, far to many shootings and the police are getting away with murder. Our police have become a militarized force much like an occupation force, shoot first, kill then lie about it. Our police use military style battle tactics, force first and all to often the courts back them up.

The system is corrupt and innocent people are paying for this corruption with their lives. The police need to be held accountable by independent citizen review boards with the power to investigate, subpoena witnesses and documents. These same review boards must have the power to punish the guilty, from days off without pay to terminating with prejudice and when necessary forwarding their findings directly to a Grand Jury for further investigation and possible indictment.

"We the People" have allowed the state to get away with treating "We the People" with contempt rather than respect, the police and government were meant to serve us not the other way around.
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Old 27-05-2019, 07:15   #44
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Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

Just because the risk of being shot is higher in the US than in for example Iraq does not mean there is a gun problem....
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Old 27-05-2019, 07:20   #45
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Re: Nonviolent Civil Resistance - The 3.5% Rule

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Just because the risk of being shot is higher in the US than in for example Iraq does not mean there is a gun problem....
Please I am NOT anti-gun, I carried weapons for 30 years, I am anti-militarized trigger happy police who all to often believe that they are the occupying force in the U.S. and that "We the People" are their subjects.
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