Irreversible Sea Level Rise

[GordMay]

“NASA/Virginia Tech Analysis Shows Irreversible Sea Level Rise for Pacific Islands” ~ NASA/JPL

“Climate change is rapidly reshaping a region of the world that’s home to millions of people.

In the next 30 years, Pacific Island nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji will experience at least 6 inches (15 centimeters) of sea level rise, according to an analysis by NASA’s sea level change science team. This amount of rise will occur regardless of whether greenhouse gas emissions change in the coming years ...

... To explore the high-tide flooding maps for Pacific Island nations, go to:
https://sealevel.nasa.gov ”

NASA ➥ https://www.nasa.gov/science-researc...cific-islands/

Virginia Tech ➥ https://news.vt.edu/articles/2024/10...c-islands.html

See also:
“Our Oceans from Space” ~ by NASA Goddard
➥

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3dO7PhYas4

➥ https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/14567

[Thomas1985]

FL Keys sea-level hasn't budged a millimeter since at least 1990. Water is exactly where it was the first time I went.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Thomas1985

FL Keys sea-level hasn't budged a millimeter since at least 1990. Water is exactly where it was the first time I went.

As you’d know, if you read the previously linked article:
➥ https://www.nasa.gov/science-researc...cific-islands/

Originally Posted by NASA/JPL

“... Sea level rise doesn’t occur uniformly around the world. A combination of global and local conditions, such as the topography of a coastline and how glacial meltwater is distributed in the ocean, affects the amount of rise a particular region will experience.

We’re always focused on the differences in sea level rise from one region to another, but in the Pacific, the numbers are surprisingly consistent” ...”

However, NASA’s Earth Observatory, and the National Sea level Explorer, have different opinions, than yours:


“The Changing Seas of the Florida Keys”
➥ https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/im...e-florida-keys

Originally Posted by NASA-EO

“... While falling sea levels brought the Florida Keys into existence, rising seas now pose a threat to their long-term existence. Sea level rise projections from the Interagency Sea Level Rise Scenario Tool (published by NASA’s Sea Level Change Team) indicate that Key West could experience between 0.45 and 2.16 meters (1 and 7 feet) of sea level rise by 2100 ...

And, according to the National Sea level Explorer [An official website of the United States government] :

In Key West, sea level rose 8 inches from 1970 to present.
Sea level is expected to rise 9 inches from 2020 to 2050, under the Intermediate Scenario...

➥ https://sealevel.globalchange.gov/na...cope=section_1

In Virginia Key, Biscayne Bay, sea level rose 9 inches from 1970 to present ...

➥ https://sealevel.globalchange.gov/na...cope=section_1

[MicHughV]

I go to the Fla. Keys often and though I don't monitor the sea level in any way, I can't say I've seen any rise in sea level that I've noticed.
I'm good friends with an area charter dive boat captain there and he likewise is not aware of any unusual sea level rise or fall in the 25 odd years he has been in business there.

Sea level rise like global warming is the modern catch phrase of the day, but I see little to no difference anywhere.

The weather is the weather is the weather in my opinion. It's never constant, it never was and never will be and I don't think anyone on this planet can say with any certainty what tomorrow will bring.

For my part, I just ignore statements like that and carry on with my life.

[Thomas1985]

I know because I have personally gone to the same condo every winter since 1985 and the water is exactly where it was the first time I went.

[Lake-Effect]

Huh... so NASA's wrong, and the keen eyeballs of a couple of vacationers are right.

(or similarly - "8 inches in 50 years? Pffffft")

I'm reminded of the metaphor of frogs in a slowly-heated pot of water.

[dannc]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

I go to the Fla. Keys often and though I don't monitor the sea level in any way, I can't say I've seen any rise in sea level that I've noticed.
I'm good friends with an area charter dive boat captain there and he likewise is not aware of any unusual sea level rise or fall in the 25 odd years he has been in business there.

Sea level rise like global warming is the modern catch phrase of the day, but I see little to no difference anywhere.

The weather is the weather is the weather in my opinion. It's never constant, it never was and never will be and I don't think anyone on this planet can say with any certainty what tomorrow will bring.

For my part, I just ignore statements like that and carry on with my life.

Back in the 1980's I was living in Florida and sea level rise due to Global Warming was a thing and people could "see" it because of beach erosion. There was an Oceanographer at one of the big Florida Universities who said beach erosion was due to human activity. Humans building inlets, sea walls, jetties, dredging, etc. However, one area of Florida was increasing beaches which was the Big Bend area that had little to no human activity.

At the same time, I saw a news report on Global Warming and nifty new computer model that showed what the increase in temperatures was going to do to the world. The model said by the year 2000, the major food production areas in Asia, Russia(which would have included Ukraine), the US, western Europe, and Canada would be deserts and humanity would starve. The journalist deserved the title and actually asked if the model would show TODAY's climate if TODAY's data was fed into the program. The answer was no.

Me thinks we can say the model was wrong since it is now a quarter century from when it said those areas would be deserts.

There is a beach here in NC that was part of a major battle, well two battles, during the US Civil War. There is a group of rocks on the beach that were part of the battle planning and mentioned in the history. I have a large book of maps and charts used during the US Civil war. The detail in the charts and maps is amazing. The group of rocks are on a chart covering the beach landing. I have stood on those rocks and they are right were the charts show them to be from a 160ish years ago.

Now, there has been huge beach erosion down the coast a bit and it was caused by humans. There is a road, and to build the road, offshore sand was dredged which eventually caused beach erosion. There was a second channel, called the New channel, that led into the Cape Fear river, but the channel was closed to minimize silting of the main, aka, Old channel of the Cape Fear river. I would have thought that this blockage would have minimized beach erosion in the area but it does appear to have done so. My guess is that too much off shore sand was removed. And I wonder if the sand was also used to block the new channel as well as build the road...

[grahamj]

Hilarious

[pcmm]

Originally Posted by Thomas1985

I know because I have personally gone to the same condo every winter since 1985 and the water is exactly where it was the first time I went.

I suspect most people (without a direct visual marker) can't tell if the water level is up or down 6 inches. Up here on Lake Ontario through out the season the water levels change up and down upto 18 inches and no one really notices until we get to the point where there has been enough movement for the dock ramps to change angle (or you are aground in your slip which does happen). By then typically the water has changed by a foot or more. So just observation isn't really a proof that nothing is happening. and it really is just a way of saying I didn't notice so I don't "believe"!!!!

[Bill Seal]

Did the sea rise or did the land sink?

[CMH]

Musk has clearly shown that NASA is a joke.

[CMH]

And: studies show that 97% of scientists agree with whoever is funding them.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by CMH

And: studies show that 97% of scientists agree with whoever is funding them.

Uh huh. Who funded THOSE particular studies?

[MicHughV]

Back in my working days I worked for an engineering company that specialized in all things to do with water. They had some high tech computer models at hand and could..and did....model anything along the ocean anywhere in the world.

Running these models were an army of Ph.D engineers that did nothing but run simulations all day, all month, all year. In fact some of the models took that long to run.
Input data was obtained from on the spot buoys, tidal gauges, visual observations, seasonal rainfall events, winds, seabed surface, mounds and undulations, and a variety of other data collecting points. All this data and more was input into the models.

About twice a year, we'd get to see a video presentation of some or other coastal or water body area. The models were reputed to be accurate to the n th degree.

It was very impressive, as the models were " live" models showing wave and tidal movements under different conditions, etc, all done in different shades of color to provide an easy to understand visual understanding for the less informed.

My interest came from another direction. My calling at the time revolved around port and harbor design, seawalls, marina's, shoreline bulkheads and just about everything else one could think of pertaining to large bodies of water.

Before any design was initiated, a meeting was held with the aforementioned Ph.D's to establish what water and tide levels, etc we would need to work with. Additionally tidal flow, bottom scour, etc, etc, were all points of discussion.
As part of all this, various studies were done reflection different storm cycles, 5 yr, 50 yr, 100yr, 500 yr, etc, which would determine extreme conditions and so on.

This then a brief summation of design input required to initiate planning and design. I've probably left out a half dozen other things, but my tired brain no longer functions like it used to .

I cannot recall a time when "rising sea water" was ever mentioned nor implied in any way and from my point of view was simply a non-existent theoretical event

"rising sea water" in my opinion, has become a popular political phrase generally uttered by those that know little to nothing about such things in an effort to do a little scare mongering amongst the masses.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Bill Seal

Did the sea rise or did the land sink?

A little of both, but mostly sea level rise.

Sea-level rise, and land subsidence, can both increase the risk of flooding in coastal areas. Measurements show that the rate of land subsidence in Florida varies from place to place, but is generally less than 0.5 millimeters per year.

At about 1.7 millimeters per year, the global average rate of sea-level rise, over the course of the 20th century, was more than three times that of land subsidence,
in Florida. What’s more, for the last 25 years, the global rate of sea-level rise has been even higher; in excess of 3 millimeters per year.

Only in limited areas; such as specific parts of Miami Beach, that were built with filled sediment, that is slowly compacting over time; does the rate of subsidence approach parity with that of sea-level rise.