Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

[Exile]

Originally Posted by weavis

I try not to think. I've been married.

I often fail at trying not to think, and so have never been married.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Actually I think Polls are a load of rubbish and can be steered/shaped by the way you ask the question.. and what the person wants you to think.
The Brexit exit voting poll showed Remainers winning by a large margin.. but folks voting Leave have a sense of humour.

I think all the demonizing that went on in both the Brexit and Trump elections screwed up the polling. People told the pollsters one thing but in the privacy of the ballot box did another.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Exile

I think all the demonizing that went on in both the Brexit and Trump elections screwed up the polling. People told the pollsters one thing but in the privacy of the ballot box did another.

Thats human nature for ya.. in spite of what all the expert papers may say.. it'll trip you up every time

[kmacdonald]

There is a huge difference in political ideology between countries and with worldwide participation here, it can cause problems or misunderstandings. Different solutions will be required for different countries. The bottom line is that culture plays a significant role.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by kmacdonald

There is a huge difference in political ideology between countries and with worldwide participation here, it can cause problems or misunderstandings. Different solutions will be required for different countries. The bottom line is that culture plays a significant role.

It’s so true. Too often we get drawn into the specifics of the American political dynamic. I prefer to keep the discussion at the broader, more general or academic level.

[Exile]

Good point kmac. There is often an "American bias" that we should try and not always accede to.

[john61ct]

I think with both votes, so many thought the mainstream side would win they didn't bother going out to vote.

Really should be mandatory, yes make it easy and convenient, sure write in Mickey Mouse if you like, but

you do have to vote, get fined 2% of your income max a grand if you fail to fulfill that basic obligation of citizenship at least once every couple years.

[Pelagic]

I think it is mandatory in some countries

[Exile]

Originally Posted by john61ct

I think with both votes, so many thought the mainstream side would win they didn't bother going out to vote.

Really should be mandatory, yes make it easy and convenient, sure write in Mickey Mouse if you like, but

you do have to vote, get fined 2% of your income max a grand if you fail to fulfill that basic obligation of citizenship at least once every couple years.

Not voting is a vote, which is one reason why it's so hard to unseat incumbents. Maybe it should be harder to vote, and not so easy & convenient. That way maybe the people who vote will be the ones who actually understand the importance of voting and care about the outcome. If the outcome is a flop, then that would spur others to vote in the next election. Who knows, then maybe we won't wind up with so many Mickey Mouse politicians in office.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by john61ct

I think with both votes, so many thought the mainstream side would win they didn't bother going out to vote.

Really should be mandatory, yes make it easy and convenient, sure write in Mickey Mouse if you like, but you do have to vote, get fined 2% of your income max a grand if you fail to fulfill that basic obligation of citizenship at least once every couple years.

One would think a primary responsibility of citizens in a democracy should be to vote. But I find it hard to square mandatory voting with personal freedom that democracy is built on. Of course none of us are allowed absolute personal freedom, so I can see an argument that supports mandatory voting as being one of those limitations.

I more favour making it as easy as possible to vote, removing any barriers that exist, rather than criminalizing the act of not-voting.

Originally Posted by Pelagic

I think it is mandatory in some countries

Yes, Australia is one. Actually, there’s a long list of countries which make voting mandatory. Here’s a good link:

https://www.idea.int/data-tools/data...pulsory-voting

Originally Posted by Exile

Not voting is a vote, which is one reason why it's so hard to unseat incumbents. Maybe it should be harder to vote, and not so easy & convenient. That way maybe the people who vote will be the ones who actually understand the importance of voting and care about the outcome. If the outcome is a flop, then that would spur others to vote in the next election. Who knows, then maybe we won't wind up with so many Mickey Mouse politicians in office.

I agree that a non-vote is a form of voting, but its meaning is largely unclear. And as you point out, a non-vote is mostly just a vote for the incumbent.

I am far more in favour of the spoiled ballot approach — at least in areas which count these votes.

But definitely do not make it harder to vote. That’s a tactic that is already alive and well in my country, and I hear yours as well. Voter suppression is an insidious virus in too many of our democratic systems. Along with gerrymandering and unrestrained spending (and probably a few other issues), voter suppression is a serious threat to the legitimacy of democratic governments.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I agree that a non-vote is a form of voting, but its meaning is largely unclear. And as you point out, a non-vote is mostly just a vote for the incumbent.

I am far more in favour of the spoiled ballot approach — at least in areas which count these votes.

But definitely do not make it harder to vote. That’s a tactic that is already alive and well in my country, and I hear yours as well. Voter suppression is an insidious virus in too many of our democratic systems. Along with gerrymandering and unrestrained spending (and probably a few other issues), voter suppression is a serious threat to the legitimacy of democratic governments.

There's a lot of politically inspired hype about the prevalence of "voter suppression," and to the extent it exists it's not confined to one side (which I'm sure you know). Another one of those polarizing topics which we should probably leave alone. And before you bring out any studies, there are plenty from credentialed experts on both sides. I don't mean to minimize the integrity of any such research, but it's all too easily manipulated for political purposes and then presented as "fact" by whosever's interests it best suits. As with many of these hot-button issues these days, there is "evidence" to support and dispel both sides. Especially since voter suppression has now become one of these political memes, I would urge an open mind.

[Exile]

Btw, what's the "spoiled ballot" approach?

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Exile

There's a lot of politically inspired hype about the prevalence of "voter suppression," and to the extent it exists it's not confined to one side (which I'm sure you know). Another one of those polarizing topics which we should probably leave alone. And before you bring out any studies, there are plenty from credentialed experts on both sides. I don't mean to minimize the integrity of any such research, but it's all too easily manipulated for political purposes and then presented as "fact" by whosever's interests it best suits. As with many of these hot-button issues these days, there is "evidence" to support and dispel both sides. Especially since voter suppression has now become one of these political memes, I would urge an open mind.

Sorry, but when you mentioned making it harder to vote, I thought that’s what you were aiming at. And I didn’t realize it was so hot a topic.

I can use a few Canadian examples during recent federal and provincial elections where voters have been intentionally misdirected to the wrong polling stations in an apparent effort to stop them from voting. And we’ve seen efforts to increase ID requirements, which has the effect of disenfranchising those people who already exist on the economic and social margins.

It’s not a partisan tactic, it's a power tactic, usually enacted by those in power to say in power.

I guess a spoiled ballot is the same as writing in “Mickey Mouse”. It’s a form of protest that makes the ballot invalid. It’s viewed as a means of protesting the system. Some jurisdictions actually count these ballots, so they can have some (usually minimal) impact on the polity.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Exile

Btw, what's the "spoiled ballot" approach?

It's where you deliberately spoil your ballot, which is supposed to indicate "none of the above".

[john61ct]

Bothsidism really is a cancer.

Voter suppression is over 90% driven by Republicans. No experts or science required, the politicians themselves openly acknowledge that they are historical artifacts as soon as more citizens get out to vote, especially minorities and the young.

Yes gerrymandering can be found in Democratic jurisdictions, but nationally that too is much more widespread and egregious in Republican territory.

Pretending otherwise is just lame.

The US's use of winner takes all first-past-the-post elections really hampers progress with a two-party system.

All the other western "democracies" use voting systems designed so multiple parties are proportional in the legislature, and shifting coalitions can require snap elections.

This allows new parties to form and fundamental shifts in the polity transition incrementally rather than having to tear everything and start over, rarely but cataclysmically.

I think the coming years will give opportunities for such systemic adjustments and we should take advantage of them.

But overcoming big money's and corporate hegemony has to be the top priority, as well as privacy protections in interpersonal communications.