Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

[StuM]

Originally Posted by SailOar

I haven't been following this thread, so hope this is relevant, and not redundant.

^^^^^^^^^^^^

A Different Kind of Theory of Everything

Yep, came across that one a couple of days ago.

Interesting article

It gets a bit "Hitchhiker's Guide" ish towards then end

"We´re not building a machine that calculates answers, he says; instead,
we´re discovering questions. Nature´s shape-shifting laws seem to be the
answer to an unknown mathematical question. "

And the answer is: 42

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by StuM

Yep, came across that one a couple of days ago.

Interesting article

It gets a bit "Hitchhiker's Guide" ish towards then end

"We´re not building a machine that calculates answers, he says; instead,
we´re discovering questions. Nature´s shape-shifting laws seem to be the
answer to an unknown mathematical question. "

And the answer is: 42

Actually, there are plenty of signs that our current understandings around the nature of the Universe is flawed.

Relativistic and quantum physics is ripe with constants. Why? And why these particular ones?

Push the math far enough and you end up with a lot of infinites. Infinite gravity, infinite expansion, infinitely indivisible… An infinite is just a breakdown of our understanding. It’s the equivalent of “Past Here be Dragons.”

But this is where the exciting science exists. This is why I don’t really agree with the premise of the piece. I think science — at least at the interesting bleeding edge — is dealing with the idea of unknown unknowns.

[cyan]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

...This is why I don’t really agree with the premise of the piece...

How about the premise of the thread? Maybe the converse is true too.
Perhaps it might important to know when you are RIGHT, among a sea of detractors. We are apparently annoyed by so may who think they are so tuned into the truth, that we agree they should have more appropriate humility. Ah, but what of the overly-humble genius who has the real answers to some puzzling questions, whose voice is never heard? Einstein was not too polite, by most reports, and we know all about his theories- some that weren't proven until after he died. Is there another one of his ilk who is just too polite?

[john61ct]

Not just a matter of polite humility.

The flip side of Dunning-Kruger, is that once they get to a high enough level of topic-specific knowledge, experts often **do** grossly underestimate their level of expertise, as much as just-learning noobs overestimate theirs.

Given the stoking of anti-expert feelings these days by commercial interests, it would really be great to find more effective ways to amplify the more informed opinions of the true merit-based elite, over the bloviating just-rich types convinced being wealthy gives them a say in areas where they know so very little.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by cyan

How about the premise of the thread? Maybe the converse is true too. Perhaps it might important to know when you are RIGHT, among a sea of detractors. ...

Perhaps … but it is problematic because we all suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect, so it is hard to be certain of your own certainty. This is what makes the scientific process of repeat, repeat, repeat, so important. Peer review is essential to identifying what is really “right”.

A more important question these days is for those of us who are outside of this scientific process to know when to accept that others are right sometimes. This used to be the realm of experts and expertise. Unfortunately, too many people now believe they know more than experts in a wide range of subjects.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by john61ct

Not just a matter of polite humility.

The flip side of Dunning-Kruger, is that once they get to a high enough level of topic-specific knowledge, experts often **do** grossly underestimate their level of expertise, as much as just-learning noobs overestimate theirs.

Given the stoking of anti-expert feelings these days by commercial interests, it would really be great to find more effective ways to amplify the more informed opinions of the true merit-based elite, over the bloviating just-rich types convinced being wealthy gives them a say in areas where they know so very little.

Not just the "just-rich" types who bloviate. It's one of those all too common human traits that is independent of class, wealth, race, gender, sexual orientation, age, or any other category that is so fashionably used to divide us these days.

[kmacdonald]

Originally Posted by Exile

Not just the "just-rich" types who bloviate. It's one of those all too common human traits that is independent of class, wealth, race, gender, sexual orientation, age, or any other category that is so fashionably used to divide us these days.

True, but the "just-rich" have a louder voice.

[cyan]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Perhaps … but it is problematic because we all suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect, so it is hard to be certain of your own certainty. This is what makes the scientific process of repeat, repeat, repeat, so important. Peer review is essential to identifying what is really “right”.

A more important question these days is for those of us who are outside of this scientific process to know when to accept that others are right sometimes. This used to be the realm of experts and expertise. Unfortunately, too many people now believe they know more than experts in a wide range of subjects.

While I don't agree 100%, I could easily be wrong.
In my little technology world, Dunning-Kruger has been enhanced by that damn Steve Jobs book. There seems to be a horrible trend among some technology business leaders who are self-styled Jobs... just do it my way. (We'll give them something they don't KNOW that they want.) What a curse that book was.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Perhaps … but it is problematic because we all suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect, so it is hard to be certain of your own certainty. This is what makes the scientific process of repeat, repeat, repeat, so important. Peer review is essential to identifying what is really “right”.

A more important question these days is for those of us who are outside of this scientific process to know when to accept that others are right sometimes. This used to be the realm of experts and expertise. Unfortunately, too many people now believe they know more than experts in a wide range of subjects.

Maybe in part because by the time the actual expertise is filtered through to the people, it's been misconstrued/tainted/manipulated and so is no longer credible. Or at least not believed to be credible. I think the mistrust may be focused less on true experts, but on elitists who bestow unearned & undeserved expertise on themselves.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by kmacdonald

True, but the "just-rich" have a louder voice.

As do the "old-rich." Hey, since we're categorizing, why not get into the subs?

[john61ct]

Originally Posted by kmacdonald

True, but the "just-rich" have a louder voice.

And in most "democracies" can buy real power, influence policy away from the public interest in favor of their industries' profits, and

further concentrating wealth and power in fewer and fewer hands every year, cutting out gains from higher productivity "floating all the boats"

[kmacdonald]

Originally Posted by john61ct

And in most "democracies" can buy real power, influence policy away from the public interest in favor of their industries' profits, and

further concentrating wealth and power in fewer and fewer hands every year, cutting out gains from higher productivity "floating all the boats"

There's nothing a special interest group with money and a lobby can't buy. Absolutely nothing!!!!!

[Exile]

Originally Posted by john61ct

And in most "democracies" can buy real power, influence policy away from the public interest in favor of their industries' profits, and

further concentrating wealth and power in fewer and fewer hands every year, cutting out gains from higher productivity "floating all the boats"

Another good example of a very "human" problem that's afflicted the species from the get-go. Democracies provide more accountability to combat this than more autocratic systems. There is no "fix," only checks & balances which aren't always as effective as we would like them to be.

[john61ct]

Just rewatching one of the Coen's masterpieces

[john61ct]

Originally Posted by kmacdonald

There's nothing a special interest group with money and a lobby can't buy. Absolutely nothing!!!!!

Well, there are rare exceptions, when informed and motivated citizens mobilize and organize.

Rarely sustained for long though, so of course those whose rice bowl is threatened can just wait for the fuss to dies down and then undermine the progress made.

EPA is a classic example.