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Old 03-03-2019, 13:24   #691
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Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

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wow. How can there be anything good about a system where the bipolar, two-party nature is so rigidly baked-in?


In Canada, party affiliation has NOTHING to do with voter registration. If you want a part in selecting a party's leader, you join that party. Totally disconnected from voter registration and government.
I heard politicians in Canada even change parties on a routine basis. Don't know if it's true.
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Old 03-03-2019, 13:29   #692
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Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

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In the West people don't call on the third eye....they google charts to make themselves happy...sometimes change the minds of others. What Kahan shows is that showing graphs to people is pointless because they will see what their brain wants them to see. If you repeat the same Kahan (medical cream and gun control) study after a politically violent conflict affecting the same participants...it would be expected that the erstwhile myopic types will have more of what we might call intellectual humility...they would have reason to question their previous beliefs because something bad occurred.

But the motivation/willingness depletes over time because of other factors. "
Excellent summation of why Philosophical discussions have accepted guidelines to keep us honest.

My own "tool" is that I have a little Socrates sitting on my left shoulder whispering questions to me.
However in this social media platform, they are rarely voiced as I am here mostly to learn about things like battery management.
As to the potty police..... I do feel comfortable about sh*ting in the woods!
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Old 03-03-2019, 13:36   #693
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Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

I firmly believe (speaking as a US citizen) we should have a single national voting ID card. However, to make sure no barrier is in place for any citizen: it should be free, easily accessed, immediate possession and same for replacements and renewals. The hardship for some citizens is the amount of time it takes to get an ID, access to required paperwork (eg birth certificate) among others, does suppress voting. Plus, state level ID's are frankly too easy to fake or get fraudulently. Also, as soon as a death occurs, the person is removed from the eligibility list. Obviously, some way to establish what state you're eligible for is not addressed above. I leave that to far smarter people.

I also believe presidential general elections should have the top two candidates as defined as the one getting the most votes. No state or federally funded primaries. The parties put up their candidate for a primary. The top two go head-to-head. I also still believe in the electoral college, though the number of electoral reps per state should be allocated by population. Its current form is outdated and is under representing a large portion of the US, while over representing a smaller portion. But I'm not sure how to do this without making states like Idaho irrelevant - something we should not do.

Party loyalty is becoming the USA governments (local, state and federal) demise. Blind faith and allegiance to a party coupled with the complete hatred of fellow citizens is unpatriotic. Our differences make us stringer - Embrace them, don't fear them. There is always a better way, even when "perfection" has been achieved.
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Old 03-03-2019, 13:42   #694
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Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

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I honestly have not seen ONE credible proof that voter fraud is a significant problem in the US.

Your link, an opinion piece, raises a bunch of possibilities, but again there is no accompanying analysis about what fraud actually happened and whether any election outcome can be shown to have been materially affected by fraudulent voting.
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This is especially so when the premise of this behind the call appears false. There is no credible research to suggest voter fraud is a serious concern. Indeed, it is statistically irrelevant in almost every case where it has been examined. Hereís just one summary quote for a report ó done in 2004. I could quote from dozens of others:
I know you can, I've read many of them myself, and can see the list of many others when I do a search. But with an issue that is so heavily politicized, it is generally assumed that analysis & conclusions are coming from biased sources with political agendas, and therefore not to be trusted. I'm not saying this is always or necessarily the case, only that this is the perception over this issue these days. Such perceptions go directly to how much confidence the electorate has in the system, whether justified by "scientific analysis," "research-based articles," or not. This touches on the issues Singularity has posted about how people rationalize their fears, along with the article from John61 about the rejection of institutionalized sources of information.

The Fox article I linked to may be an opinion piece, but it documented a number of incidents worthy of note. No, those and the Heritage Foundation data it partially relied on do not constitute proof of "widespread" voter fraud, and imposing a minimal ID requirement will not remedy all abuse. But it may restore some confidence. As it stands now, many are convinced that the only reason the Dems oppose it is because they want non-citizen immigrants who are not eligible to nevertheless vote. We can wait for all the "evidence" to come in, or we can take a minimal step to assuage fears on both sides, whether those fears are grounded in fact or not. Given the safeguards in place, the slippery slope arguments frankly seem rather specious to me. We've progressed far beyond polling taxes & literacy tests, and every voting precinct in the country seems to be under careful scrutiny nowadays with lawyers standing by to facilitate full access to the courts.
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Old 03-03-2019, 13:43   #695
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Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

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I heard politicians in Canada even change parties on a routine basis. Don't know if it's true.
Not common, but it occasionally happens.

Where I think a parliamentary system excels:
- it's not restricted by structure/habit/tradition into just two parties
- people are not so rigidly defined/identified by what party they support
- likewise, people are more likely to vote according to a stated policy or position, not party affiliation. Voters are less constrained by what party they previously supported. Policy, not identity
- unlike in a rigid two-party system, there actually is a tenable middle turf, a place for pragmatism and moderation.
- minority governments. If there was no clear winner, governments can be formed by a coalition of two or more parties. It's more fragile, but stuff gets done
- NO FIXED ELECTIONS. There's a limit on how long one can govern before calling the next election, but a snap election can be called at any time around a specific issue. A 3 or 4 month campaign period; not a two-year circus. I think US fixed elections are an enormous distortion and distraction.
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Old 03-03-2019, 13:45   #696
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Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

It's happened often in the US as well.

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Not common, but it occasionally happens.

Where I think a parliamentary system excels:
- it's not restricted by structure/habit/tradition into just two parties
- people are not so rigidly defined/identified by what party they support
- likewise, people are more likely to vote according to a stated policy or position, not party affiliation. Voters are less constrained by what party they previously supported. Policy, not identity
- unlike in a rigid two-party system, there actually is a tenable middle turf, a place for pragmatism and moderation.
- minority governments. If there was no clear winner, governments can be formed by a coalition of two or more parties. It's more fragile, but stuff gets done
- NO FIXED ELECTIONS. There's a limit on how long one can govern before calling the next election, but a snap election can be called at any time around a specific issue. A 3 or 4 month campain period; not a two-year circus. I think US fixed elections are an enormous distortion and distraction.
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Old 03-03-2019, 14:53   #697
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Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

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...We can wait for all the "evidence" to come in, or we can take a minimal step to assuage fears on both sides, whether those fears are grounded in fact or not. Given the safeguards in place, the slippery slope arguments frankly seem rather specious to me. We've progressed far beyond polling taxes & literacy tests, and every voting precinct in the country seems to be under careful scrutiny nowadays with lawyers standing by to facilitate full access to the courts.
As I say, if the actual perception is that elections not fair due to voter fraud, then something must be done to reverse this. An ID system that does not unduly impact peoplesí ability to cast a vote may be a useful idea, but the political nature of this issue suggests this action is simple the other side of the same dilemma, and wonít actually create the desired result. It will likely just shift the distrust form one side, to the other.

As the Kahan study reveals, the real solution is to depoliticize this issue. It is unlikely that other approaches will actually achieve the desired result of reaffirming faith in the system. But this gets back to that question you raised a while back about how this actually happens ó I donít know. But there are issues that have become less politically sensitive over time, so there is a way forward.
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Old 03-03-2019, 15:06   #698
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Exclamation Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

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Faith in the credibility of our voting systems is paramount to a functioning democracy. Without this fundamental belief in the systemís fairness, peaceful power transition becomes impossible. So any attack on the credibility of the system needs to be done with the greatest care, and any claims need to be examined critically and skeptically.

Iím in favour of requirements which do not unduly burden the voting system, but who and how ďundulyĒ is defined and measured here is often the problem. There is ample history and evidence of voter eligibility rules being used to disenfranchise certain people, so the suspicion that these calls for tighter ID requirements are really about something else are warranted.

This is especially so when the premise of this behind the call appears false. There is no credible research to suggest voter fraud is a serious concern. Indeed, it is statistically irrelevant in almost every case where it has been examined. Hereís just one summary quote for a report ó done in 2004. I could quote from dozens of others:



To me, real or myth do matter, but perception matters even more. So youíre right, if there is a real perception the system is fraudulent, then actions need to be taken. But it is also worth examining where these mythical claims are coming from, and what the motivations may be.

King County in Washington State has had several scrapes with vote fraud.
They have counted many more votes than are registered and even more votes than the total number of people who live in the county.
Every time there's any question, the ballots they "find" during a recount always go to the Democrat. Here's one example:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_W...orial_election
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Old 03-03-2019, 15:09   #699
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Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

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We can wait for all the "evidence" to come in, or we can take a minimal step to assuage fears ...

... that's exactly what I've been saying!!!


Oh wait, sorry, this isn't the CC thread.
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Old 03-03-2019, 15:26   #700
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Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

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Where I think a parliamentary system excels:
- it's not restricted by structure/habit/tradition into just two parties
- people are not so rigidly defined/identified by what party they support
- likewise, people are more likely to vote according to a stated policy or position, not party affiliation. Voters are less constrained by what party they previously supported. Policy, not identity
- unlike in a rigid two-party system, there actually is a tenable middle turf, a place for pragmatism and moderation.
- minority governments. If there was no clear winner, governments can be formed by a coalition of two or more parties. It's more fragile, but stuff gets done
- NO FIXED ELECTIONS. There's a limit on how long one can govern before calling the next election, but a snap election can be called at any time around a specific issue. A 3 or 4 month campaign period; not a two-year circus. I think US fixed elections are an enormous distortion and distraction.
LE, my perception of the Canadian political systems is that we have become more rigid and party-loyal over the last couple of decades. Starting perhaps with the Chretien, or possible even the Mulroney, but certainly the Harper governments, we’ve seen a gradual shift away from simple pragmatic centrist parties, to ones more ideologically driven. And here I’m thinking mainly the Liberal vs Conservative parties.*

I do think there is more fluidity, and less party affinity, in Canada because our parties still aren’t that far apart ideologically speaking. My sense is that this was also the case in US politics up until relatively recently.

With regard to fixed elections, I agree they have negative consequences. And Canada does now have set federal elections. Of course, they aren’t fixed in the sense that a government can call an election early, or a confidence defeat will force one, but we do now have scheduled election dates.

The negative consequences are already clear. We’re now becoming much more election-oriented, with parties essentially in election mode for much longer periods, even if our formal election periods haven’t changed.

*The NDP has alway been more ideologically driven, although every decade or so they drift to the centre, and then find electoral success, only to recoil back to their roots, and promptly lose seats. And of course the Greens and Bloq are more ideological as well.
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Old 03-03-2019, 15:33   #701
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Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

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... that's exactly what I've been saying!!!

Oh wait, sorry, this isn't the CC thread.
This is why everyone should read that Kahn study.
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Old 03-03-2019, 15:46   #702
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Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

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... that's exactly what I've been saying!!!


Oh wait, sorry, this isn't the CC thread.
Actually . . . and I really hate to say it . . . and you're really not the kinda guy that should be encouraged . . . and I definitely shouldn't say it in front of all these witnesses who might vouch for you (except SenorM - he won't say s**T), BUT . . . your comment below about the positives of more of a parliamentary-style democracy may be . . . errrrrr . . . uhhhh . . . correct??*

I never thought I'd come to such a conclusion (about democratic systems and agreeing with you ), but the deteriorating political climate in the US is making the two-party, fixed election, winner-take-all structure seem less & less like a functional democracy and more like a banana republic. Maybe the English had it right after all.

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Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
Not common, but it occasionally happens.

Where I think a parliamentary system excels:
- it's not restricted by structure/habit/tradition into just two parties
- people are not so rigidly defined/identified by what party they support
- likewise, people are more likely to vote according to a stated policy or position, not party affiliation. Voters are less constrained by what party they previously supported. Policy, not identity
- unlike in a rigid two-party system, there actually is a tenable middle turf, a place for pragmatism and moderation.
- minority governments. If there was no clear winner, governments can be formed by a coalition of two or more parties. It's more fragile, but stuff gets done
- NO FIXED ELECTIONS. There's a limit on how long one can govern before calling the next election, but a snap election can be called at any time around a specific issue. A 3 or 4 month campaign period; not a two-year circus. I think US fixed elections are an enormous distortion and distraction.
*C'mon now, you didn't honestly believe I was about to agree with you on CC, did you?
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Old 03-03-2019, 15:55   #703
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Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

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King County in Washington State has had several scrapes with vote fraud.
They have counted many more votes than are registered and even more votes than the total number of people who live in the county.
Every time there's any question, the ballots they "find" during a recount always go to the Democrat. Here's one example:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_W...orial_election
SoÖ the conclusion was that there was no widespread voter fraud here, certainly none that had any impact on the election. This is what Iíve been saying; whenever this claim is tested, it doesn't stand up to critical study or review.

Iím sure there is some level of fraud in all elections, but to suggest it is significant, or widespread, or even new, simply does not comport with the facts.
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Old 03-03-2019, 16:20   #704
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Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

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As I say, if the actual perception is that elections not fair due to voter fraud,

what I'm saying is that the perception is already here, and only seems to be getting worse with every election cycle

then something must be done to reverse this. An ID system that does not unduly impact peoplesí ability to cast a vote

as Gord's stats noted, half the states already require it, and it's subject to court oversight and, in some cases, supervision. A national voter ID card as Wildcats suggests would be even better since requirements would be standardized and thus less opportunity for shenanigans. Like a passport perhaps

may be a useful idea, but the political nature of this issue suggests this action is simple the other side of the same dilemma, and wonít actually create the desired result. It will likely just shift the distrust form one side, to the other.

the distrust is already there and getting worse. Every incident involving police & minority citizens risks becoming racially charged, immigration reform is either translated as open borders or a wall, gun control is interpreted as a ruse for confiscation, tax cuts that spur the economy treated as mere tax cuts for the rich. Nothing gets done because nobody trusts, and so compromise is out of reach. An ID requirement for voting applied equally to everyone could at least potentially eliminate one source of contention

As the Kahan study reveals, the real solution is to depoliticize this issue. It is unlikely that other approaches will actually achieve the desired result of reaffirming faith in the system. But this gets back to that question you raised a while back about how this actually happens ó I donít know. But there are issues that have become less politically sensitive over time, so there is a way forward.
It doesn't look too promising when almost every issue getting national attention is divisive, whether it really deserves to be or not. I don't have answers either, but thought this one might serve to restore some confidence. Could be wrong. Maybe you're right and it would only backfire.
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Old 03-03-2019, 17:29   #705
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Re: Intellectual Humility & the importance of knowing you might be wrong

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Actually . . . and I really hate to say it . . . and you're really not the kinda guy that should be encouraged . . . and I definitely shouldn't say it in front of all these witnesses who might vouch for you (except SenorM - he won't say s**T), BUT . . . your comment below about the positives of more of a parliamentary-style democracy may be . . . errrrrr . . . uhhhh . . . correct??*
Relax, no encouragement received. I recall we previously agreed that a rigid two-party system was becoming problematic.


This thread, although non-boating and with it's periodic partisan outbreaks, has been mainly interesting and informative, possibly a better model for what a quasi-political discussion on CF should be like...?


CC threads here- not so much . They're little more than partisan propagandizing and pseudo-scientific whack-a-mole. And exhibit A for a successful disinformation campaign.
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