Ice Age on the Way!

[Kenomac]

Quaternary Ice Age. Yep, looks like we're heading the wrong direction if you like warmer weather.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_glaciation

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Of course newhaul still thinks that same, much-maligned graph shows a long-term cooling trend , so maybe innumeracy is wider-spread than we think.

Newhaul beat me to the punch on correcting your misrepresentation of how he has represented the cooling temps over the past few years and as shown in the UAH (sat data) graph. In climatology a trend is generally accepted to be 30 years, but we all know that the selection of start & end dates can be misleading, and the longer the time span the more insignificant the proffered correlation between warming from the last ice age and AGW can appear.

The "much-maligned" graph? Where are you coming up with that? All of these data sets -- whether gathered by satellites or land/sea based thermometers -- are subject to corrections for a myriad of variables. The UAH sat data is no exception, and the underlying data itself is recorded by NASA satellites. As I recall, the land-based graphs show a similar 30 or 40 year trend, just not as much warming as what the satellites show. And I recall both datasets showing cooling over the past few years. But overall there doesn't seem to be any conflict with all these graphs show a decades long warming trend. But the lower temps recorded by the satellites are more consistent -- in the opinion of some scientists -- with natural forces as opposed to AGW.

I welcome corrections to my recollection of these various temp graphs, but your misrepresentations smack of mere partisanship rather than an honest presentation of the state of the science. All too predictable, unfortunately.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by newhaul

I said it shows a cooling trend I did not say long term .( ever in any of these threads)

This is, in my recollection, the first time you have ever qualified your assertion that "the earth is cooling". Usually you just proclaim "the earth is cooling" and post the graph. I guess this is progress.


Exile - "much-maligned" doesn't mean that the graph is wrong or suspect, just that it has been used and abused here so often.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

This is, in my recollection, the first time you have ever qualified your assertion that "the earth is cooling". Usually you just proclaim "the earth is cooling" and post the graph. I guess this is progress.


Exile - "much-maligned" doesn't mean that the graph is wrong or suspect, just that it has been used and abused here so often.

OK, got it. Thanks for clarifying.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

This is, in my recollection, the first time you have ever qualified your assertion that "the earth is cooling". Usually you just proclaim "the earth is cooling" and post the graph. I guess this is progress.


Exile - "much-maligned" doesn't mean that the graph is wrong or suspect, just that it has been used and abused here so often.

technically it is a new graph every month . Due to new data being added on a regular monthly schedule.
Also I have always stated the term of the cooling trend.
Which seems to be getting longer every month .:-)
we are now cooler than we were in 1998 and 2011. Annual average.
However if you choose a starting point of 1998 then we have been in a cooling trend for the last 20 years.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by newhaul

However if you choose a starting point of 1998 then we have been in a cooling trend for the last 20 years.

Just because you can put your ruler on any two dots and draw a line does not mean you've described the actual trend between those dots.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Just because you can put your ruler on any two dots and draw a line does not mean you've described the actual trend between those dots.

perhaps you would like to crunch the actual numbers then .
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v...cdc_lt_6.0.txt

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by newhaul

perhaps you would like to crunch the actual numbers then .
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v...cdc_lt_6.0.txt

you claimed it, you crunch'em.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

you claimed it, you crunch'em.

I did that's how I came up with the cooling trend over the last 20 years at an approximate rate of .12℃ per decade.

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Quaternary Ice Age. Yep, looks like we're heading the wrong direction if you like warmer weather.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_glaciation

Guess you don't read what you post as 'evidence' for your opinion then...

Verbatim (except for my highlight) from your linked-to Wikipedia article.


"Projection of the timeline for the next glacial maximum depend crucially on the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. Models assuming increased CO2 levels at 750 parts per million (ppm; current levels are at 407 ppm[37]) have estimated the persistence of the current interglacial period for another 50,000 years.[38]"

[Dave_S]

I like this graph because it fits what I believe.

Not much of a basis for deciding what's true and what's false but that's what everyone apart from a small hand full of people are doing........

This is well above my pay grade so I would be very happy to be put straight.

It seems to come from a credible source and there is a hundred edited versions around to try to enhance a particular point of view but they show roughly the same thing so I'll assume it is in the ball park.

If I was to figure out how the world is doing based on this very long term information I'd say we are doing pretty well, nothing to worry about, we were in an upward cycle which seems to have reversed slightly in the last 10,000 years and we are running very close to the world's last 800,000 year average.

As far as short term future, it seems in a state of flux that could go either way 60/40 to decline.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Dave_S

I like this graph because it fits what I believe.

Not much of a basis for deciding what's true and what's false but that's what everyone apart from a small hand full of people are doing........

This is well above my pay grade so I would be very happy to be put straight.

It seems to come from a credible source and there is a hundred edited versions around to try to enhance a particular point of view but they show roughly the same thing so I'll assume it is in the ball park.

If I was to figure out how the world is doing based on this very long term information I'd say we are doing pretty well, nothing to worry about, we were in an upward cycle which seems to have reversed slightly in the last 10,000 years and we are running very close to the world's last 800,000 year average.

As far as short term future, it seems in a state of flux that could go either way 60/40 to decline.

in the long term your graphs are correct. then you have those that want you to pay for what they perceive as something new and alarming don't want the long term data to be revealed. Due to it not fitting the narrative of man causing catastrophic issues that must be paid for with taxes on us .
Notice since the USA has pulled out of the Paris debacle. We are the only nation that is actually reducing out collective carbon emissions thru adopting better technology. Not through unnecessary taxes.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

Guess you don't read what you post as 'evidence' for your opinion then...

Verbatim (except for my highlight) from your linked-to Wikipedia article.


"Projection of the timeline for the next glacial maximum depend crucially on the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. Models assuming increased CO2 levels at 750 parts per million (ppm; current levels are at 407 ppm[37]) have estimated the persistence of the current interglacial period for another 50,000 years.[38]"

Lots can happen over a 2.6 million year period. I prefer to look at graphs which display temp changes which take into account a much longer period. 20 years... even 200 years is but a small knat on an elephants butt in comparison to 15,000 years or more.

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

Guess you don't read what you post as 'evidence' for your opinion then...

Verbatim (except for my highlight) from your linked-to Wikipedia article.


"Projection of the timeline for the next glacial maximum depend crucially on the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. Models assuming increased CO2 levels at 750 parts per million (ppm; current levels are at 407 ppm[37]) have estimated the persistence of the current interglacial period for another 50,000 years.[38]"

Okay. Take a moment and have a bit of a think about it, the irony is that certain elements of society want to throw the baby out with the bathwater in an attempt to keep the planet in the grip of an ice age. And ice age conditions are not the norm of this planet we call home.


It always amazes me that the alarmist element always seem to insist that past climatic conditions used as a base line are somehow static and unwavering and somehow irreproachably representative of what should be considered, for all time, the absolute yardstick for comparison. This belief is what appears to lead them to panic if last year's ice extent in the Arctic is less than the previous, or the jet stream dips, or the gulf stream meanders or Earth's average temperature changes by fractions of a degree over the course of decades. And of course, should a powerful cyclone form or a drought strike a region or a flood occur somewhere or basically any weather event that can be categorised as a natural disaster they applaud themselves with accompanied finger pointing and proclamations of "we told you so!"

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

Guess you don't read what you post as 'evidence' for your opinion then...

Verbatim (except for my highlight) from your linked-to Wikipedia article.


"Projection of the timeline for the next glacial maximum depend crucially on the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. Models assuming increased CO2 levels at 750 parts per million (ppm; current levels are at 407 ppm[37]) have estimated the persistence of the current interglacial period for another 50,000 years.[38]"

that is if you are in the co2 is the driver camp.
Personally I prefer to look at the real driver of all things earth. The sun . Just look at the a mount of blue on a chart of the Atlantic ocean these days
First is the anomaly from average .
Second is the actual temperatures.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/