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Old 27-11-2019, 07:09   #466
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Electric Car Economics

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Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
One more advancement on the road to better EVs.



Other than the current cost of batteries, it's mainly scale that makes ICE cars less expensive than EVs. Once the electric motors and control systems are produced in the same volume as ICEs, there will be a price drop.



Batteries and charging remain the biggest hurdle.


EV’s should be massively less expensive, there isn’t even really a transmission, it can’t get any simpler, and of course there are no pollution controls and no where near the sophisticated electronic monitoring and controls an ICE engine has to have to pass emissions.
No fuel system, no exhaust system, no catalytic converters, heck the lack of a transmission alone has to save a bundle.

It’s why I keep saying when the real auto manufacturers get involved in any real way, you will see changes.

But it may be that the public will demand 6,000 lb SUV’s and the prices with all the Luxury items will keep the costs high.

Average person the best furniture they own is in the car, the best stereo is in the car etc.

For example what happened to the cheap little pickups, no one makes them anymore, why?
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Old 27-11-2019, 07:50   #467
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Re: Electric Car Economics

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It’s why I keep saying when the real auto manufacturers get involved in any real way, you will see changes.
It may be that the widespread US disdain for green initiatives coupled to the elevated mythic status of the automobile has kept US carmakers on the EV sidelines too long.

Most of the action in EVs is in China, and if/when North America finally acknowledges the need to seriously kick its fossil fuel addiction, the far east will have a commanding lead in EVs. Unless US automakers have something up their sleeves, the best they can hope for at that point is co-development or rebadging.
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For example what happened to the cheap little pickups, no one makes them anymore, why?
I've always been jealous of all the interesting and practical vehicles that you can find anywhere but North America.
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Old 27-11-2019, 08:15   #468
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Re: Electric Car Economics

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Perhaps coming off 3 year lease?
The batteries have a bad reputation for longevity since they aren't temperature controlled. Not important in a boat, but when you're regularly pulling 70kW out, or cramming 50kW in, in 20F to 110F ambient temperatures, it matters.

But the biggest factor is the fact that nobody pays sticker, and then there's a tax credit. That tax credit is nice enough, but it also goes straight to depreciation. Add on top of that that some states like California and Colorado have very generous rebates on top of that and you end up in a situation where if you only paid ~$15K out of pocket for a new car, why would I want to pay more for a 3 year old one?
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Old 27-11-2019, 08:26   #469
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Re: Electric Car Economics

Except that imposing arbitrary standards, especially ones which are arbitrarily easy to meet for companies which specialise in small cars, is highly inefficient. The efficient way to regulate this is to tax fuel. Plus possibly an intelligently designed guzzler tax. CAFE is silly and intrusive and counterproductive.

In Finland, your annual car tax is based in carbon emissions, and there is an excise tax upon acquisition based on carbon. Fuel costs $10 a gallon. This is sensible.

Needless to say, no one here uses a three tonne pickup with an 8 liter V8 to run to the corner for a liter of milk, and that is right.
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Reinstate CAFE standards for light trucks and SUV’s and don’t use magic numbers to calculate the fuel mileage etc and you’ll see people fall out of love with them again.
Whoever and I don’t pretend to know who put the CAFE standards into place if they hadn’t been rewritten and have exemptions, etc it would have worked, in fact it did work.
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Old 27-11-2019, 09:02   #470
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Re: Electric Car Economics

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For example what happened to the cheap little pickups, no one makes them anymore, why?
You can get a new base model Honda Ridgeline for around $28K sticker price near me (and I'd bet a few thousand cheaper after negotiation). Unlike the Rangers and S10s popular when I was younger, it has more power, more payload, more towing capacity, more interior, more cargo, better mileage, more reliability, and unlike all other less than full-size trucks I'm aware of, can carry a full sheet of plywood flat in the bed between the wheel wells.

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EV’s should be massively less expensive
They're awesome city cars. Or in a PHEV where >90% of your trips can be on electric power alone (and actually have a lower carbon footprint than a long-range BEV since they weigh less and the much smaller batteries are less carbon intensive).

But you'll never see something like a Suburban EV because it doesn't make any sense. To maintain the interior volume, the coefficient of drag over area would be huge, and probably couldn't maintain better than say 500Wh/mi at highway speed in fair weather. That'd mean a 200kWh battery to hit the 300 miles of range mark (you can't actually use all that energy without killing cycle life, and you'll want a small buffer for winter pack and cabin heating as well). Which would be stupid expensive and weigh ~1,400kg. Even at $0.20c/Wh (probably a bit lower than cost for a typical temperature controlled pack considering the 60kWh Bolt pack retails for $15,000) you're talking about $50,000 just for the battery pack. Insurance would be insane.

I don't think batteries will ever take over long-haul travel. Hydrogen for long haul/heavy duty and batteries for light duty and city use. Hybrids are the future IMO. Best of both worlds.

The EVs make really interesting platforms for boats though: https://greentecauto.com/hybrid-batt...attery-modules

"24kWh" for $2,800 and you only need a 7S BMS for 48V. Lighter than LiFePO4 and with hundreds of thousands of vehicles on the road, there's never been a documented HV battery fire in a Leaf as far as I'm aware (the only one I could find online looked to be the 12V battery but it definitely wasn't the HV pack). Certainly if Torqeedo is trusting BMW battery packs (LMO-NMC), minus the thermal controls, I don't see any reason not to trust the AESC/Nissan packs (same basic chemistry).

You couldn't pay me enough to put Tesla's NCA chemistry in my home or boat.
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Old 27-11-2019, 09:11   #471
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Electric Car Economics

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Except that imposing arbitrary standards, especially ones which are arbitrarily easy to meet for companies which specialise in small cars, is highly inefficient. The efficient way to regulate this is to tax fuel. Plus possibly an intelligently designed guzzler tax. CAFE is silly and intrusive and counterproductive.

In Finland, your annual car tax is based in carbon emissions, and there is an excise tax upon acquisition based on carbon. Fuel costs $10 a gallon. This is sensible.

Needless to say, no one here uses a three tonne pickup with an 8 liter V8 to run to the corner for a liter of milk, and that is right.


The problem with taxes that are multiples of the cost of the product itself is several fold, but first where does the tax go? Don’t tell me how it will be spent for lofty goals because I can name all kind of examples to show you it won’t be.
Then by excessively taxing a product what about the companies who in good faith have spent billions to produce enormous quantities to satisfy the demand.
They aren’t stupid, they could easily have played like the Arabs in the 70’s and not spent those Billions to increase production and instead just let the price escalate, and probably made more money.
Would have wrecked the economy though, small problem there.

You have any idea what a more than 300% increase in fuel costs would do to the cost of well, everything, everything food included burned fuel to produce it and fuel to transport it.
You would instantly be in a recession, guaranteed.
So what you would have is enormously complex government subsidies for farmers, public transportation and Lord only knows what, every single politician would have his favorite poster child that needed subsidies.
CAFE isn’t silly or intrusive, and yes it would reward companies that primarily produce cars that use less fuel, isn’t that exactly the point?

It was working, history proves it was working, but exempting Pick up trucks and SUV’s from CAFE and gas guzzler tax is exactly why they are so popular in the US. That and big, expensive cars have a higher profit margin, and before you slam Detroit look up the numbers, the biggest, heaviest and least efficient SUV’s are not US vehicles they are Japanese.

Look here to see which vehicles pay a guzzler tax and the BS reason why some do not.
https://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/gas-guzzler-tax

So CAFE and the gas guzzler tax is still alive and it works, but was castrated by making SUV’s and Pick up trucks exempt.
So do you have to ask why these two extremely inefficient vehicles are the most popular?
The answer is simple, don’t make them exempt. Make them play by the same rules as all other vehicles, and then watch and see how long they remain so popular.
Your not punishing them, just making them play by the same rules is all.
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Old 27-11-2019, 09:22   #472
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Re: Electric Car Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead View Post
Except that imposing arbitrary standards, especially ones which are arbitrarily easy to meet for companies which specialise in small cars, is highly inefficient. The efficient way to regulate this is to tax fuel. Plus possibly an intelligently designed guzzler tax. CAFE is silly and intrusive and counterproductive.
In Finland, your annual car tax is based in carbon emissions, and there is an excise tax upon acquisition based on carbon. Fuel costs $10 a gallon. This is sensible.
Needless to say, no one here uses a three tonne pickup with an 8 liter V8 to run to the corner for a liter of milk, and that is right.
Indeed.
In its final report*, the Ecofiscal Commission (a privately-funded policy group that calls for market-friendly solutions to climate change) concludes that Canada needs a carbon price of $210 per tonne of greenhouse gas emission by 2030 to meet its Paris targets — assuming it relies on the carbon tax alone.
The federal carbon tax, currently in place in four provinces and soon to be imposed in Alberta, where an equivalent provincial plan is not in place, is set to increase to 50 dollars a tonne by 2022.
In its report, the Ecofiscal Commission concluded that, even though it's more visible and politically controversial, the carbon tax remains the most cost-effective approach to fighting climate change. Other policy approaches, though less visible, are more costly for Canadians.
* “Bridging the Gap: Real Options for Meeting Canada’s 2030 GHG Target”
https://ecofiscal.ca/reports/bridgin...30-ghg-target/

Much more from Ecofiscal ☞ https://ecofiscal.ca/
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Old 27-11-2019, 09:33   #473
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Electric Car Economics

Eventually we as a Society will have to come to the conclusion that fuel is like water, it’s a necessity, and just like we don’t allow Richie Rich to dam up a river and keep all the water to himself, one day we are going to have to no longer allow him or her to burn thousands of gallons of fuel in their private Jets flying to wherever or burn thousands of gallons of fuel in their Yachts either.

I would propose as an interim measure that fuel and energy were rationed, you would get ration cards just I did as a US Service member stationed in Germany, that rationed fuel would be cheap, and I was allowed to buy as much fuel as I liked, but not at the rationed price, that is where your $10 a gl for pleasure fuel would come from, I say pleasure fuel cause you can’t tax OTR trucks like that, not all at once or the Economy would tank. So each Adult or family or however it would be determined to be fair would get x amount of gallons of rationed fuel, once that rationed fuel was bought any additional would cost say four times as much.
Do you think that just might increase the demand of very high mileage or if electric, efficient vehicles?
Remember I said electric power as well. You have an electric car? Then you get to swap your gas ration for an increased electric ration.
So farmers who burn dyed fuel now, would continue to burn dyed fuel just as they do now, but add OTR trucks and some other categories like I guess Cop cars and School busses etc to that.
Just don’t get me started on School busses.
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Old 27-11-2019, 09:48   #474
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Re: Electric Car Economics

We don't need a lot of data to figure this out pretty well.

There's not much difference between EVs and ICE vehicles except ICE engine maintenance vs battery backs, if you don't go into detail like brake pads.

I think the battery packs pay for themselves pretty quickly in fuel saved.

I have been in a lot of Tesla and Leaf taxis in Europe ; the drivers swear by them. In Estonia, one taxi driver told me the operating costs of his leaf was less than half of his previous Ford Focus. He was very pleased with it, after half a million kilometres.
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Even the high mileage Tesla fleet that was all highway, had I think disturbing stats, Not sure how many cars there are, but they have gone though eight batteries, assumption there is a calendar time on warranty only, no mileage.
But what does a Tesla pack cost? I have no idea.

But life span is sort of irrelevant, 99% of the type of people that buy new, don’t keep a vehicle for any long term, I’m the 1% that does, or used to, I have bought my last new car.
But if even decently well cared for, and I mean just oil and fluids changed a vehicle’s body and very often the electrical system / electronics along with worn paint and rattles etc is why you get a new car.

My Wife’s father had a Honda something, maybe an accord but it had over 400,000 miles on it and the electrics were giving trouble and she demanded a new SUV so they got rid of the Honda.
I told them they were fools not to get another of those Honda’s, just a low mileage used one. They won’t live to put another 400,000 miles on a car.
Just like when I buy a house, I won’t need a 30 yr. roof, I realized that the other day, and it bothered me.
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Old 27-11-2019, 10:06   #475
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Electric Car Economics

Even brake pads are a non issue on an ICE, because I’d go so far as to say that an ICE that wasn’t a Hybrid is illogical, a Hybrid on average decreases fuel consumed by about 30%.
But regenerative braking has limits and they aren’t as high as you would think. The Prius has a load meter on its display, and if you use this load meter it shows you the limit of acceleration you can get off of pure electric mode and the limits of regen braking, exceed them and of course your into regular braking, and that happens a lot quicker than you may think.
But the major thing is re-learning how to drive, or saying it another way, don’t drive like all the idiots in the SUV’s.
Excessive acceleration is obvious, but average driver continues to accelerate when the light ahead is red, until his foot comes off of the go pedal and they then step on the brake. And accelerating into a red light is stupid.
You learn that as soon as that light turns red or you know you can’t make it though the intersection, your foot is off of the go pedal and you coast, done right and you never stop of course, your doing what is called pulse and glide in hypermilage speak.
You can really, really increase you mileage way more than you think by not continually heavily accelerating and hard braking at every light.

My best when hypermilimg was over 70 mph for over 100 miles, your highest fuel mileage trip is forever stored in the Prius I guess encouraging you to best it.

Having said that I can’t get my 20 yr old daughter to drive the car right and I get to replace the front brakes maybe this weekend.
But even if you have to replace the whole brake rotors and pads every 200,000 miles or so it’s only $100, anyone who pays someone to do their brake pads and rotors is foolish. However do some reading on how these regenerative brake systems work, they aren’t simple, there isn’t a master cylinder for example, there is a “stroke simulator” with a hydraulic pump and accumulator to operate the actual brakes.
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Old 27-11-2019, 10:22   #476
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Re: Electric Car Economics

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Originally Posted by cherylchecheryl View Post
How many of the nuclear power supporters want to live next door to a nuclear power plant?

Life is NIMBY. People may love the idea, but they love it best when it is in your backyard and not theirs.

Where I live, the greens did everything they could including protests and filing a lawsuit to make sure a nuclear plant wasn't built.

People make mistakes, people are imperfect instruments. What happens when a wind turbine fails? It catches fire, blades fly off and kill someone, birds get chopped up? What happens when solar panels fail? They fly off and kill someone, birds get fried?

When nuclear fails, it fails big. Thanks, but no, I don't want that anywhere near me. If the nordic countries want to lead the charge, good for them. I'd rather see hydro, geothermal, or wave power explored more. A bursting dam would be a very bad thing, but I think "we" have a better handle on the construction of that then containing neutrons.
I think density of power generation needs to be a consideration. There are different kinds of nuc power plants that are safer than what's been built.

Diablo Canyon nuclear plant is on a 1000 acre site, but the power plant uses up 12 acres. It can produce 2256 MW, 18,000 GWh annually.
Ivanpah solar takes up 3500 acres. Produces 392 MW, 718 GWh annually.

To produce the same energy annually as the nuc plant solar would need close to 90 square miles.

Artist's conception of what California looks like when it has gone solar from the movie Bladerunner 2049
https://www.reddit.com/r/bladerunner...e_concept_art/

Green activist turned nuc advocate -
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Old 27-11-2019, 10:24   #477
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Re: Electric Car Economics

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The problem with taxes that are multiples of the cost of the product itself is several fold, but first where does the tax go? Don’t tell me how it will be spent for lofty goals because I can name all kind of examples to show you it won’t be.
Then by excessively taxing a product what about the companies who in good faith have spent billions to produce enormous quantities to satisfy the demand.
They aren’t stupid, they could easily have played like the Arabs in the 70’s and not spent those Billions to increase production and instead just let the price escalate, and probably made more money.
Would have wrecked the economy though, small problem there.
Hmmm. Business is business; I don't think oil companies have engaged in a leap of faith except to make bets on what they think the future demand will be. They should be able to cope with any program that has a reasonable phase-in period.

I'm personally not that afraid of a carbon tax because, first - it is possible to run a revenue-neutral system. Second - we will need some revenue for the costs of CC and changing to lower-emission sources. Also, as people and companies pivot away from carbon, there should be less carbon tax to collect.

Another scheme besides a tax is cap and trade, where industries have set carbon limits, and they are free to trade "headroom" under those limits with each other.
Quote:
You have any idea what a more than 300% increase in fuel costs would do to the cost of well, everything, everything food included burned fuel to produce it and fuel to transport it.
You would instantly be in a recession, guaranteed.
There is such a thing as underpricing energy. It might be argued that low-cost fossil-fuel is supporting an otherwise lacklustre economy? But all this must be factored in; the US won't be jacking up fuel prices overnight.
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Old 27-11-2019, 15:06   #478
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Re: Electric Car Economics

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Having a smaller general data set for EVs in no way precludes cherry picking data.

The vast majority of Teslas are not used in a shuttle scenario putting up massive numbers of miles, so it is selecting a favorable data set from a wider range of available data.
NO. It is NOT.

Sheesh. I'm not arguing the data is correct or 'admissable'.

I'm pointing out that the term "cherry picking" has a very specific meaning and, in this context, is not the correct term to use, as it implies some level of dishonesty.

The POINT is that there are, as yet, no comparable datasets of EV users that have (as yet) racked up the sort of miles that hire company cars do, and, as they are (as yet) the only ones with the available datasets, that's what people look at.

They do point out that several of the batteries and some other software issues failed - so it's not as though the hire car scenario is "positive" for Tesla high milers!

I think you'll find I'm actually agreeing with you in large part - that the hire results are not to be relied on as indicative of general usage.

but, as yet, there are no comnparable or comparative studies of early adopters of Tesla or other EVs that feature vehicles with the sorts of mileages the hire cars are getting.

So simply looking at what data IS available is absolutely NOT "cherry picking" in the sens it is normally used within the EV and climate change argument.

Inadequate, not truly representative of broader community use, sure, but most definitely not "cherry picking".

At best, the hire car studies are "interesting".

Ditto the New York municipal studies.

But "representative of normal vehicle usage"??? Not yet, and not in any meaningful comparative dataset.
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Old 27-11-2019, 15:28   #479
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Re: Electric Car Economics

a64 - not everyone wants to change their own brake pads or rotors, otherwise mechanics would be out of a job!
Your argument that anyone who doesn't do it themselves is somehow foolish is therefore nonsensical. As an example, what about a disabled person in a wheelchair who has hand controls fitted to enable them to drive a car? They certainly can't physically change the pads or rotors.

So the cost should be what it will cost the "average" person, rather than the cheapest-possible-cost-attainable-by-doing-it-yourself.

And as to the area required for power stations, here's an example: Australia would need to utilise 0.01% of it's landmass to build a PV power station big enough to power the entire country.

Of course, they don't mention that it would need a battery as big as that again to store the power so it could be used when the sun don't shine, but hey, never let a fact get in the way of a good story.

How much solar do we need to power Australia? - Voltio

There is also a recentl formed start-up seeking to add an international inter-connector from northern Oz to Singapore, so we can built a PV power station to feed Asia's growing demand for power.

Makes sense. Most of Oz is desert that can't be used for much else, and PV panels on stands don't actually prevent the local critters and flora from co-existing, as some sun reaches the ground some of the day.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...20-p53cf7.html
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Old 27-11-2019, 15:53   #480
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Re: Electric Car Economics

The problem with nuclear, which should be obvious but apparently is being overlooked by many here, is that it is radioactive and kills you.
As OTR drivers who cleared all the background checks to haul for the US military and nuclear services, my wife and I learned to hate it.
I supplied many loads (12 enriched weapons grade rods, 6 matching sets per load) to several of the nuclear power plants in the north east states. Two in NY I visited many times. Sometimes we would have multiple trucks at once, all delivering, no picking up 'spent' rods as it was at that time illegal to transport them to the storage caves out west... all the spent rods being stored in the cooling ponds on site at the reactors. Two rods in use, how many waiting for use? How many in the cooling ponds 'spent'? Three of us delivered 36 rods in one day to the same reactor plant....

Do some math and think if ANYTHING goes wrong at just one site.

Not to mention we were responsible for making sure nobody got cozy near our truck. Paying attention no pregnant women got near us if we stopped at a restroom.

After several years trying to have a child, and giving up, we found out she was pregnant one week after hauling to Peach Bottom. It was our first nuclear load. GE said if they even suspected she was pregnant they would have never let her in the yard. The doctor said our baby never stood a chance.

Good thing those rods are sealed in containers guaranteed to contain the contents. Yeah, right

Sorry, I am bitter. $10,000 medical bills, losing our child, knowing first hand (now) just how much radioactive material is around me on the road and surprisingly in major cities and I know how unsafe it is.

3 Mile Island, Chernobyl, Japan... it's like russian roulette on grand scale. It's only a matter of time
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