Electric Car Economics

[DeepFrz]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Where electric cars are concerned (unlike electric boats, where there is simply almost no data), there is plenty of objective information if you dig even just a little bit. I don't believe in a conspiracy of "big oil", the universal cartoon villain, but even if there is, there is no way for big oil or anyone else to control the vast amount of hard data which is out there. There are millions of electric cars on the road now and what their practical range is, downsides, problems, and advantages are, is very well known and easy to find.


Where power generation is concerned -- I know a little about this from my day job. I know A64 has written that he is concerned that the grid can't handle increased demand from widespread electric car usage, but I'm not seeing that problem at all in Europe. First of all, a great deal of electric car charging takes place at night when there is a vast amount of spare capacity. But also electrical power is a vast interconnected market which is not that hard to expand. It's expanding anyway, at least in Europe, where non-carbon emitting generation capacity is being expanded in huge quantities purely for political purposes. If greater absolute capacity is required because of a big wave of electric car adoption, then this just delays taking some of the older generation plant off line.


Electric power of lots of stuff is the future and we'll need more and more of it in any case. Who would have thought a couple of decades ago that we would be consuming such a large proportion of generated power in telecomm and IT sectors?


It only takes a few years now to get a new wind farm online, and after a few decades of development, wind power has now finally become a mature technology which is beating all other sources of electrical power on cost.


There is a new generation of nuclear power plants called the European Pressurized Water Reactor which offers profound advantages in inherent safety and cost, and although the first plants have had construction delays and cost overruns, and the builder, EDF, has had financial problems, new EPR plants are going ahead will come on line in Finland, France and the UK in the next years. Finland plans to be at 60% nuclear by the end of the next decade, and the UK has allocated billions to build three new nuclear plants of EPR design.



As awareness of climate change has taken hold in Europe, there have been profound changes in public opinion concerning nuclear power. In Sweden, for example, after the Fukushima disaster, 60% of Swedes were against nuclear power, now only 19% are against, and 66% favor nuclear power, and almost everyone feels it is important to stop burning coal and gas to produce electricity.


I am pessimistic about a few different big things happening in the world today, but capacity of the electrical power grids is not one of them. I am pretty sure that these will smoothly expanded as demand increases and electricity will be used to power more and more things in our lives, and not just transportation.


In fact, I believe I will see the day when there will no longer be any political or external pressure to conserve energy. This is an unpleasant and unnatural situation, by the way, driven by externalities. Once the externalities have been eliminated from it, so that non-renewable resources are no longer being used to produce it, and the environment is not being harmed in any other way to produce it, and it is being produced on a commercial basis which allows someone to earn an honest profit on it, then everyone will be able to use as much as he wants and can afford, just like other commodities. This particular issue will be better in the future, than it is today, I feel quite sure.

I agree with pretty much everything you say here. What you have quoted was not directed at anything that you have posted.

There is a startup in Britain, I don't remember the name now, that has raised billions to build a number of charging stations. These stations have areas for cars and another area for buses and box vans to recharge. The have a lounge, coffee shop, convenience store and the whole lot will be powered by their own renewable energy. Excess energy will be available to shore up the grid.

[DeepFrz]

StuM, I think you need to grow up.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

the whole lot will be powered by their own renewable energy. Excess energy will be available to shore up the grid.

Geez, I guess you believe that too, how many acres of Solar panels will they have? Or will they only charge one car a day.
You need to run the math on that one too.
Tesla pack is around 85 KWH?
Figure 50 KWH per car then and tell me how much solar you would have to have to do 100 cars at 100% efficiency
5,000 KWH I guess?

[DeepFrz]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Geez, I guess you believe that too, how many acres of Solar panels will they have? Or will they only charge one car a day.
You need to run the math on that one too.

No, you check it out and work on your math.

[a64pilot]

OK I figure on a good day. 5,000 250W panels might could do it, more likely way down South though.

[Belezar]

I agree that time will tell, but so far based on what I have experienced, that’s the result. I drive my vehicles until 250-300k miles and then they just get to be a pain to deal with. How this will be I have no idea. 8 year battery warranty, but how long can I go? So far there has been minimal decrease in range. It’s a crap shoot but I am optimistic.

I disagree that it is impractical to travel by electric if you are in a Tesla. With a 370 mile range and a nationwide network, you shouldn’t have much problem. It is a lifestyle choice, and one that I am not ready to make yet, but not that inconvenient unless you want to do 600+ mile days regularly. Vendors are figuring out where to put chargers now, so many more options.

A big part of our clean energy success will depend on modernizing the power grid. In Superpower: One Man’s Quest to Transform American Energy,” Wall Street Journal reporter Russell Gold discusses the problem and some guy’s attempt to work with Power companies and states and politicians to fix the grid. An amazing read. We have what we need to produce power cleaner and cheaper right now, but special interests are blocking what is a solid business case. Pretty eye opening.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

[WWII:] Conscription? People lined up around the block to join.

The WW2 Museum states that 17.8m US personnel served in the war, of which 6.3m were volunteers, and 11.5m were draftees. ... Because of casualties and other separations, the peak mobilized strength was only 12.2m (1945).

[source]


.. but yes, voluntary enlistment was strong.

Government redirecting manufacturing? Not hardly. Very quickly manufacturing learned that the real money was in producing war stock, they lined up in bidding wars, nobody made them.

Preparing the Economy for War

The most powerful of all war-time organizations whose task was to control the economy was the War Production Board (WPB), established by President Roosevelt on January 16, 1942 by executive order. Its purpose was to regulate the production of materials during World War II in the United States. The WPB converted and expanded peacetime industries to meet war needs, allocated scarce materials vital to war production, established priorities in the distribution of materials and services, and prohibited nonessential production. It rationed such commodities as gasoline, heating oil, metals, rubber, paper, and plastics.

But whatever. A big problem requires a big effort.

[DeepFrz]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Really 17,000 miles a month? Let’s see that’s something like 24 mph 24 hours a day and never slowing down much less stopping. Now if you have ever driven a car that displays average speed you’ll know that it’s tough to average over time 30 mph even on the highway, and stop to go to the bathroom or refuel just kills average speed.
How do they do that? I guess they never stop even to recharge and have a sort of Leman’s thing going changing tires, brakes and switching out drivers?

a64pilot, instead of just spouting off your bias why don't you look for the facts. I'll give you a hint. The article in on the Quartz web site.

Edit: Actually I'll help you out. https://qz.com/1737145/the-economics...million-miles/

[DeepFrz]

A tweet from Elon Musk.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/...ZoP__i6nrpK-jw

[sanibel sailor]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

We have time-of-day metering and smart meters. You can save substantially by moving whatever consumption you can to off-peak hours. Eg - we run the dishwasher when we go to bed.

As mentioned, it would be easy, with timers and other methods, to do the bulk of EV charging at lower demand periods.

The i3 can charge itself on a low cost schedule. Built-in. Along with flashing lights at low speed to warn pedestrians.

It's really a cool car, love mine. Hardly ever go to the gas station. It is the best thing since card readers on gas pumps to keep me out of the cigarette, beer and lottery ticket line to pay. Next maintenance due in July, it will take 2 quarts of oil. My Tundra goes thru more petroleum just in 7.5 quart oil changes every three months than my i3 range extender generator burns in gas. I put a bit over 1000 miles a month on the car.

[DeepFrz]

Just a few more links.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmc.../#7de061eb7c4f

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmc.../#7de061eb7c4f

https://thenarwhal.ca/industry-respo...-to-bill-c-69/

https://environmentaldefence.ca/2019...e-protections/

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Really 17,000 miles a month? ...

You might want to read the article.
Electric cars are changing the cost of driving
“... Tesloop, a shuttle service in Southern California composed of Teslas, was ticking the odometers of its cars well past 300,000 miles with no signs of slowing.
The company’s fleet of seven vehicles—a mix of Model Xs, Model 3s and a Model S—are now among the highest-mileage Teslas in the world. They zip almost daily between Los Angeles, San Diego, and destinations in between. Each of Tesloop’s cars are regularly racking up about 17,000 miles per month (roughly eight times the average for corporate fleet mileage). Many need to fully recharge at least twice each day...”
➥ https://qz.com/1737145/the-economics...million-miles/

[a64pilot]

Gord, I see the article and the claims, but how do you average 24 mph forever, never stopping?
Even running 70 on the interstate it’s nearly impossible to do, and that’s 24 hours a day, every day, never stopping for anything, no maintenance, no recharging no nothing.


I’m not against electric vehicles, I’m against hype and fans making impossible claims, like the charging station will recharge every car and power some homes.
How about make a nuke plant part of it and it can run a city?

There is no free lunch, no magic, physics, is physics. The power required is the same, nothing is free.

People start running these numbers and base things like a 250w panel will return a kilowatt of power every day, Winter, Summer and rainy days/

Only thing I’m against is ridiculous claims.

[DeepFrz]

posted by a64pilot: Gord, I see the article and the claims, but how do you average 24 mph forever, never stopping?
Even running 70 on the interstate it’s nearly impossible to do, and that’s 24 hours a day, every day, never stopping for anything, no maintenance, no recharging no nothing.

17,000 miles a month is about 567 miles a day, considering a 30 day month. That averages out at 45 miles an hour average speed for about 12.5 to 13 hours a day. I would say its very doable for a shuttle service running on freeways.

Better have your calculator checked.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Geez, I guess you believe that too, how many acres of Solar panels will they have? Or will they only charge one car a day.
You need to run the math on that one too.
Tesla pack is around 85 KWH?
Figure 50 KWH per car then and tell me how much solar you would have to have to do 100 cars at 100% efficiency
5,000 KWH I guess?

Solar is not the only renewable power source, and who said it would be produced on site? Jumping to conclusions!


I believe this is what DeepFrz was talking about:


https://www.geopura.com/


Seems kind of a Rube Goldberg way to do it -- why not just put the power into the grid?


But anyway, the idea is to transport by road in the form of "liquid hydrogen based fuel".


Siemens is involved in it, so I doubt if it's something idiotic. Those Germans are pretty hard-headed.