Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 25-06-2019, 09:56   #31
Registered User

Join Date: May 2011
Location: Lake Ont
Posts: 5,597
Re: Electric Car Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by valhalla360 View Post
The sensors are here.

5yr ago I helped set up a live on road test bed (on actual city roads) doing exactly what you say "light at upcoming intersection will be red in 20 sec".

The state where I do most of my work is installing the system as standard when they modernize a signal. It will take some years to do the whole state but it's being installed now.

That said... full blown completely autonomous is likely at least a decade if not two decades away...but various features of autonomous are already being implemented...adaptive cruise control, lane departure, etc...are all autonomous features that are gaining wide scale adoption on production cars.

Cool. is there an industry standard for that sort of data signal to vehicles? If yes is it interactive ("status of light#LakeStW@Main_NB?" "light#LakeStW@Main_NB is currently GRN, time2RED=18s") or just some sort of broadcast?


I know it's coming, and features like adaptive cruise control, lane departure, etc are precursors, but this is still a far cry from driverless autonomous control, and I agree with your timetable of at least 10+ years away... but I also think the expected use case will also change in that time to just driverless taxis/ubers, transport for the disabled and elderly, couriers... and the majority of the healthy population will be mainly on networks of commuter trains and public transport, and hopefully a very healthy proportion of people walking or cycling short distances.
__________________

Lake-Effect is offline  
Old 25-06-2019, 15:15   #32
Registered User
 
Cheechako's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Skagit City, WA
Posts: 22,713
Re: Electric Car Economics

Electric car real world:
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	62547062_1103324576531705_3340333625311756288_n.jpg
Views:	717
Size:	53.3 KB
ID:	194683  
__________________

__________________
"I spent most of my money on Booze, Broads and Boats. The rest I wasted" - Elmore Leonard











Cheechako is offline  
Old 25-06-2019, 17:38   #33
Moderator
 
a64pilot's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Jacksonville/ out cruising
Boat: Island Packet 38
Posts: 31,128
Electric Car Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by robwilk37 View Post
bought a first gen volt. costs me $1 per night to recharge from a 110 socket while i sleep. didnt go to a gas station for 7 months. love it, fun to drive and well thought-out.



economics- bought it used just off the lease for $12kusd (some poor bastard ate $30k in depreciation in two years! and also hot-boxed the majority of the interior "new car" carcinogens, thanks for that) the car is pristine. still cant figure why they dont hold their value. wish id bought one a couple years ago...


Iím convinced most were bought to be cool status symbols, for the most part, that didnít happen unless itís a Tesla, and they sold them or came off lease like yours and they got an SUV like everyone else.
Gas is cheap relatively, and itís not cool saving gas. Itís mind blowing to me to see the save the world types that demand ďsomethingĒ must be done to curb global warming, drive away in a monster SUV with a big V8 motor.

I bought or actually put money down on a new Leaf before they were sold as I was enamored with our Prius and the Prius and an all electric and we would be set, Prius for long trips, Leaf for short ones.

In truth a big issue for many plug in hybrids is the storage of the gas in their tank, if you donít use the ICE every so often and burn that fuel you will have maintenance problems stemming from old gas and an unused motor, many donít use one for months and then when they finally do, it may not run well.

However Nissan really boffed up that launch and I honestly donít think I ever got my money back, and about that time I was contemplating cruising anyway, now Iím glad I didnít buy that Leaf as they arenít worth much used.

However as I said before and this guy backed it up, used electric cars are a dime a dozen, I donít know why, they should way outlast an ICE car, electric motors lives may be literally in the millions of miles, the car ought to be shot but the motor and drive train still be good.

I think except for the Tesla, they arenít cool. The Tesla enjoys for whatever reason the same snob status as other status symbols, Womenís $1,000 purses, is a Rolex still a must have accessory for a successful Businessman or Lawyer, almost with the Armani suit?
Tesla is probably more cool than a Porsche for now.


Arenít there many at least Dutch towns that donít allow automobiles in the city limits? I seem to remember even way back when I was in Germany that was already happening and that was decades ago.
a64pilot is offline  
Old 25-06-2019, 17:51   #34
Moderator
 
a64pilot's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Jacksonville/ out cruising
Boat: Island Packet 38
Posts: 31,128
Electric Car Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by Woodland Hills View Post
If we canít develop self driving trains, then what chance of developing self driving cars and trucks? Itís a much simpler problem to solve, but we still havenít been able to pull it off. Think about it: no lanes to change, no side streets or cross streets, all cross traffic is blocked when the train is near, no merging vehicles, no steering!!, just go and stop. Yet we still canít make self driving trains. Until we see autonomous trains, autonomous cars are just a pipe dream........ At least elevators are self driving!


Trains could easily be done, yet arenít. Iím not sure why, but would guess Unions and plain economics play into it.
Commercial aircraft could also easily be done, see large Military drones, they already are, but donít expect it in the future, not for a very long time, first you will see single pilot Commercial jets, he will just sit there most likely, maybe talk to the passengers etc.
But you have Unions and Safety concerns to overcome first.
Iíve been astonished to see autonomous cars being built, I figure they would be sued out of existence first person hurt or killed and that has happened already, a few times.
You may laugh, but in fact for some years apparently after automatic elevators were fielded, many times you still had an elevator operator as people wouldnít get on an elevator without an operator, so they put someone in there wearing the suit, to push the buttons.
I would guess major stores like Macyís etc.
https://www.npr.org/2015/07/31/42799...rew-skepticism
a64pilot is offline  
Old 26-06-2019, 02:52   #35
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Denmark (Winter), Helsinki (Summer); Cruising the Baltic Sea this year!
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 28,096
Re: Electric Car Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by Woodland Hills View Post
We have had two smart cars and an i3. Sold one of the smarts and stored another, the i3 was a three year lease and we returned it when we moved aboard. The BMW was a great car for Los Angeles traffic and I even drove it to Tucson Arizona for a 1000 mi trip. However, if we were shopping for a used electric car today, Iíd buy a used Leaf. Not as cool looking, but way cheaper and more range.
The big negative on the i3 is the proprietary tires which cannot be substituted by any thing else, no big deal unless yours make a loud whooping noise when cornering on smooth pavement. I fought with BMW for two years over this, they acknowledged that the noise was there in the early cars, but said it was acceptable and refused to fix it. I am ashamed to admit that they wore me down and that I just gave up fighting over it allowing them to win. And sticking us with a silent motored EV that was incredibly annoying to drive. The noise sounded like a 1950ís spaceship and was loud enough outside that dog walkers and pedestrians would get whiplash turning to stare at the weird sounding car. People would just stop walking and stare until I went out of sight!
Our i3 was the REX and we had a level 2 charge point in our garage, thus we hardly ever used the range extender. On long trips Iíd carry a small gas can and refill the tiny tank for extra range between gas stations.
The i3 is also known to lose range dramatically in freezing weather and since the battery is barely of adequate capacity in the first place a 10 to 20% loss of range can be a dealbreaker for some.

Useful first hand experience; thanks!


I guess I need to avoid the first generation one. I don't need that much range -- won't be driving such long distances in it, but I'll need the car the most, when it's -30C outside!!
__________________
"Parce que je suis heureux en mer, et peut-Ítre pour sauver mon ame. . . "
Dockhead is online now  
Old 26-06-2019, 03:16   #36
Registered User
 
Marc1's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Sydney Australia
Boat: 2004 Steber 2200 Persuader
Posts: 205
Re: Electric Car Economics

What nonsense.
The percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere is at a historic low at 0.04%
The contribution of the total of human kind to this is 3%, that is 0.0012%
So if we all go to mars tomorrow, our Co2 contribution turned to zero, the difference to climate would be a big fat zero.
An you think that driving an electric hybrid, not even a full electric, made from millions of little electronics produced with metals and rare earth and all sort of highly polluting products that pollute other countries like china of course ... will "save the planet" ... what a sad reflection for the average IQ of present and future generations.

CO2 IS GOOD FOR YOU> STOP THE FRAUD !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Marc1 is offline  
Old 26-06-2019, 03:30   #37
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Denmark (Winter), Helsinki (Summer); Cruising the Baltic Sea this year!
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 28,096
Re: Electric Car Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
Small derail here: I think that too much hope is being pinned on self-driving cars, and not enough on simply good, people-first urban design, with a public transport system to match. Many downtown trips in personal vehicles are (or should be) unnecessary, if there's better alternatives like perimeter parking and decent public transit/bike routes/walkways in the city core. That's the solution to urban traffic congestion, not self-driving cars.

Human drivers are gonna hate self-driving cars. In order to be safe, the computer won't drive like Mario Andretti, it's gonna drive like your Uncle Henry - obeying speed limits, not running yellows, braking for falling leaves, actually stopping at stop signs...

Also, if you look at situations where automated driverless vehicles are the biggest success - example: a container port - the success comes from intercommunication, a sensored environment and centralized control. It's far easier for a self driving car to receive and process a signal "Light at upcoming intersection will be red in 20 sec" than it is to try to find any traffic light ahead, notice it's green, and try to guess when it will go red. Autonomous "smart" cars alone, on conventional streets, is just a kludge.

They also have the small problem of occasionally running over pedestrians, but what doesn't have bugs, right?

Well, I think you greatly underestimate the revolutionary effect of self-driving cars.


I've worked with city planners who've spent millions studying it in depth. Self-driving cars are expected to practically eliminate the need for street parking, eliminate city buses completely, eliminate traffic jams, and increase the demand for transport -- getting from A to B becomes faster and cheaper and people will move around more. This all seems entirely realistic to me.


Many "self driving cars" will actually be self driving vans which can pick up and drop off multiple passengers along routes worked out for each case by AI.


Carrying capacity of roads will be increased many times over, because traffic can move in trains and in many cases at much higher speed. This is an extraordinarily important factor for cities with big traffic problems.



Accidents will be dramatically reduced by elimination of the human factor. Sure there will be glitches and people will be killed, but give me a break -- 2000 people are killed or seriously injured on London streets every year by human driven traffic. If self driving cars kill 1000 people the first year after they replace human driven cars, this will be a big victory, and I'm sure accidents will fall much faster than that. A self-driving car killing someone is not going to slow down this thing any more than the first gasoline powered cars killing someone preserved horses and buggies. It was worth it then and it's worth it now.



Cost of local transport will be dramatically reduce -- to go somewhere by self driving car will cost something more than going by tram or bus but much less than going by taxi, and due to increase of efficiency of the roads, travel time will be dramatically reduced. City planners I work with expect a dramatic reduction in demand even for underground transport -- they are cutting back budgets on investment into underground/metro. That's because the speed advantage of underground transport will be eliminated.


Then another advantage is that whatever disadvantages of electric vehicles there are at the current state of technology are made irrelevant -- self driving cars will just go by themselves to a charging depot as needed -- they don't even need that much range. So internal combustion vehicles can be totally banned in cities, and the air in big cities will be like the air in the countryside. As countries attempt to reduce carbon emissions, more and more pressure will build up to do this.



The overall improvement in local transportation and environment will make big cities even more attractive and will accelerate the current trend of people moving into capital cities and away from smaller towns and cities.



I think all the basic bits of technology already exist and self driving cars might appear explosively. I can tell you that many European cities have elaborately worked out plans to close cities entirely to human driven cars, and eliminate city buses, and invest billions into the infrastructure required to implement self-driving cars. Will it happen anywhere by 2025, just 6 years from now, as is planned for in one city i'm working in? I don't know, but I would be surprised if it takes more than 10 years, considering the overwhelming benefits.



Take a city like Moscow, for example -- the largest city in Europe, bigger than London and Paris combined. Moscow is crippled by traffic jams, paralyzed by traffic jams which can appear even at midnight, and despite 10's of billions of euros of investment in the last 20 years, the problem is basically unsolvable without either heavily taxing driving in the city (like they do in London), which is judged to be politically unacceptable, or introducing self-driving cars -- because only 10% of the city's area is devoted to roads. You need about 20% for a reasonable road system, and you can't provide that in Moscow without knocking down a trillion euros worth of buildings -- will never happen. Yet traffic jams paralyze the city, costing untold billions of economic harm. Moscow has a huge budget -- bigger than London's municipal budget. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Moscow introduce self-driving cars first of all, investing billions of municipal funds into it, and then an explosion of other European cities following soon after.



Yes, there are plenty of challenges -- the devil is in the details -- but the benefits are so huge, with so many billions or trillions at stake, that there are huge incentives to solve these things and get on with it. My bet is that it will happen sooner than we think.
__________________
"Parce que je suis heureux en mer, et peut-Ítre pour sauver mon ame. . . "
Dockhead is online now  
Old 26-06-2019, 03:40   #38
Registered User
 
44'cruisingcat's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,210
Images: 69
Re: Electric Car Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead View Post


Many "self driving cars" will actually be self driving vans which can pick up and drop off multiple passengers along routes worked out for each case by AI.


.
Interestingly Elon Musk, very much an advocate of autonomous cars, is very worried about the development of AI.
__________________
"You CANNOT be serious!"


John McEnroe
44'cruisingcat is offline  
Old 26-06-2019, 03:46   #39
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Denmark (Winter), Helsinki (Summer); Cruising the Baltic Sea this year!
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 28,096
Re: Electric Car Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat View Post
Interestingly Elon Musk, very much an advocate of autonomous cars, is very worried about the development of AI.

I am too.


We will very soon be unable to live without AI, as it takes over stuff like this. Will we be able to control it? God only knows.
__________________
"Parce que je suis heureux en mer, et peut-Ítre pour sauver mon ame. . . "
Dockhead is online now  
Old 26-06-2019, 03:54   #40
Registered User
 
ranger42c's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Maryland, USA
Boat: 42' Sportfish
Posts: 4,406
Re: Electric Car Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead View Post
Useful first hand experience; thanks!

I guess I need to avoid the first generation one. I don't need that much range -- won't be driving such long distances in it, but I'll need the car the most, when it's -30C outside!!


What is Plan B for electric-only cars if juice is completely depleted? "Hey mister, can you spare a cup of electrons?" or some such? I've not seen much in the way of infrastructure addressing that, but then I haven't been paying much attention, either...

-Chris
__________________
Selby Bay, South River, Chesapeake Bay, USA.
ranger42c is offline  
Old 26-06-2019, 03:59   #41
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Denmark (Winter), Helsinki (Summer); Cruising the Baltic Sea this year!
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 28,096
Re: Electric Car Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by ranger42c View Post
What is Plan B for electric-only cars if juice is completely depleted? "Hey mister, can you spare a cup of electrons?" or some such? I've not seen much in the way of infrastructure addressing that, but then I haven't been paying much attention, either...

-Chris

Good question. I think you either need a range extender (auxiliary IC engine and generator), or you need to limit yourself to driving in an area with a fully developed network of charging stations.


I would not be without the range extender where I plan to drive.
__________________
"Parce que je suis heureux en mer, et peut-Ítre pour sauver mon ame. . . "
Dockhead is online now  
Old 26-06-2019, 04:13   #42
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Denmark (Winter), Helsinki (Summer); Cruising the Baltic Sea this year!
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 28,096
Re: Electric Car Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by a64pilot View Post
Iím convinced most were bought to be cool status symbols, for the most part, that didnít happen unless itís a Tesla, and they sold them or came off lease like yours and they got an SUV like everyone else. . . .

I think except for the Tesla, they arenít cool. The Tesla enjoys for whatever reason the same snob status as other status symbols, Womenís $1,000 purses, is a Rolex still a must have accessory for a successful Businessman or Lawyer, almost with the Armani suit?
Tesla is probably more cool than a Porsche for now..

Well, Rolexes are referred to as Prolexes in some circles You have to do much better than that if you want a watch as a status symbol these days, which I think is exceptionally pathetic by the way. I actually HAVE a Patek Phillippe watch, which was given to me as a gift, and it's a pretty thing, but I haven't worn it or any other watch in years.


But now a CAR as a status symbol -- there's something in that. My business partner drives in a chauffeur-driven stretch Mercedes and I really didn't want to show up at a business meeting next to him in a 3 series BMW or a Volvo or something. Not that I give a damn, at my age, in terms of my own vanity, but you wonder what impression it might make on some particularly stupid client, which might be bad for business. So it's actually better for me to appear on a bicycle (as I have been doing all this year). Or an old motorcycle. Likewise -- an electric car is good -- even a Nissan Leaf would be ok.



So yes -- that's a factor. But much more important than that -- it's just a technological toy, just for the pure fun to figure out how to use it and imagine the future in such vehicles, even if they are on strictly selfish economic terms not really worth it yet. Also one wants to pollute and emit carbon less, and it's right and good to find ways to do one's part.
__________________
"Parce que je suis heureux en mer, et peut-Ítre pour sauver mon ame. . . "
Dockhead is online now  
Old 26-06-2019, 04:19   #43
Registered User
 
ranger42c's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Maryland, USA
Boat: 42' Sportfish
Posts: 4,406
Re: Electric Car Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead View Post
Good question. I think you either need a range extender (auxiliary IC engine and generator), or you need to limit yourself to driving in an area with a fully developed network of charging stations.

I would not be without the range extender where I plan to drive.

Carry a suitcase generator and a gallon of gas in the boot? Or maybe just the generator, buy gas on the fly if necessary?

-Chris
__________________
Selby Bay, South River, Chesapeake Bay, USA.
ranger42c is offline  
Old 26-06-2019, 04:29   #44
Registered User

Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Out cruising/ St. Augustine
Boat: Bruckmann 50
Posts: 778
Re: Electric Car Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by ranger42c View Post
What is Plan B for electric-only cars if juice is completely depleted? "Hey mister, can you spare a cup of electrons?" or some such? I've not seen much in the way of infrastructure addressing that, but then I haven't been paying much attention, either...



-Chris


Some tow trucks in the US already are carrying generators to charge cars on the side of the road. A short charge in most of the all electrics will get them to a charge station or home if the owner miscalculated. I suspect it wonít be much different then walking to a gas station with a can. Also they drive a pretty good way very slowly even when almost out so range extension can occur just by getting off the freeway, etc.

I have owned a Prius, Volt and now a Tesla and even if they didnít do a thing for the environment I would still be pushing for electric cars just because they drive so much better then ICE. I get in a rental fairly frequently since I am on the boat a bit and miss the electric every time. I actually think the perfect car is one with about 80 miles of battery juice and a range extender. My Volt was almost perfect but I needed just a few more miles to never need gas at all.

I think people dismiss the ease of use of an electric. You ďgas upĒ every night or two so you really never have to think about refueling unless on a trip. We live in Florida so we donít have to deal with cold weather but we do have to deal with heat and it is so nice to just keep the climate control on while you go to the store or out the eat and come back to a nice cool car. It uses very little energy (about 3% of a charge for a nice meal) and you are not sweating when you get in. Keeping the dog in the car is pretty convenient too.

It is just a matter of time and gas cars will not be able to compete. Charging is already getting competitive with refueling and should only get better as battery tech get better. We are really in the infancy of battery tech unlike the late stages of ICE tech so it is fun to watch the improvements as they come.

Jim
jkleins is offline  
Old 26-06-2019, 04:30   #45
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Denmark (Winter), Helsinki (Summer); Cruising the Baltic Sea this year!
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 28,096
Re: Electric Car Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by ranger42c View Post
Carry a suitcase generator and a gallon of gas in the boot? Or maybe just the generator, buy gas on the fly if necessary?

-Chris

Many electric cars have optional built-in generators.


The BMW i3 can be bought (and usually is, I believe) with a detuned version of the 650cc scooter engine, with 34 horsepower. I guess that gives 20-odd kW of electrical power. When the battery power falls below 5% (or something), this engine automatically kicks in, and you can carry on until the 9 liter fuel tank runs out. 20-odd kW is not enough to run at high speed on the autobahn, or climb a long steep mountain, but is apparently enough to keep you going in city traffic or at moderate speed on the highway.


A suitcase generator would not be a satisfactory solution -- only 2kW or whatever would take days to recharge a 60kW/h battery and many hours to get you mobile again.
__________________

__________________
"Parce que je suis heureux en mer, et peut-Ítre pour sauver mon ame. . . "
Dockhead is online now  
Closed Thread

Tags
electric, grass

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Trawler VS Cat or Mono hull for Economics Twilite Powered Boats 0 27-05-2015 09:20
Advice and Help on the Economics of 'The Dream' Clownshoes Dollars & Cents 29 30-06-2010 12:53
First Law of Economics? Boracay Dollars & Cents 62 07-02-2009 04:44
Economics of putting your cat in Charter? Limpet Multihull Sailboats 32 05-01-2007 13:36

Advertise Here


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 10:43.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.