Electric Car Economics

[a64pilot]

Premium is based on peoples belief’s. That’s it, really, nothing more.
Witness Women’s hand bags or the Rolex watch, is a Rolex a better watch than a Seiko? I’d argue that in fact it’s not as good a watch, but it’s certainly considered to be a “premium” watch. Why? Peoples belief that it’s a status symbol, nothing more.
Often all that extra money does buy you high quality, but not in proportion to the price.

I love one of the newer trends, Women are paying much more for “Vegan Leather” cause of course leather is an animal product , and that’s just cruel.
Do you know what Vegan leather is?

[jkleins]

Just to add some perspective to the conversation. The author of this blog post did a computer analysis of charging and EV travel in the US using one of the route planners and put together a compelling case that charger availability is probably not a big concern in the US today except for a few “dead zones” like in areas of North Dakota and Montana.
Here is the link

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2019/...-The-Backroads

[jmorrison146]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Premium is based on peoples belief’s. That’s it, really, nothing more.
Witness Women’s hand bags or the Rolex watch, is a Rolex a better watch than a Seiko? I’d argue that in fact it’s not as good a watch, but it’s certainly considered to be a “premium” watch. Why? Peoples belief that it’s a status symbol, nothing more.
Often all that extra money does buy you high quality, but not in proportion to the price.

I love one of the newer trends, Women are paying much more for “Vegan Leather” cause of course leather is an animal product , and that’s just cruel.
Do you know what Vegan leather is?

Took a quick look at "vegan leather" and, ironically, its usually made with petrochemicals as in Uniroyal's Naugahyde.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by jmorrison146

Took a quick look at "vegan leather" and, ironically, its usually made with petrochemicals as in Uniroyal's Naugahyde.

It’s just plastic, but calling it Vegan is a successful ploy to charge and get more money for plastic than real leather.
Shows the power of marketing.

[lordgeoff]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Base load generation does not solve the problem of an overloaded grid. One needs to either reduce peak demand or improve the grid.

One way to improve the grid seems to be working...

100% wrong. Baseload means that supply is designed to
exceed any peak demand by a safety factor of 30% or more.
This excess supply over expected maximum demand is a recognition that there are generation scheduled maintenance, unexpected storm disruptions and a myriad of other possible supply contingencies.
If you describe batteries as a substitute for Baseload you really do not understand the difference between DC and AC and the massive grunt of Baseload and the absolute shortcomings of batteries to replace Baseload.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by lordgeoff

100% wrong. Baseload means that supply is designed to
exceed any peak demand by a safety factor of 30% or more.
This excess supply over expected maximum demand is a recognition that there are generation scheduled maintenance, unexpected storm disruptions and a myriad of other possible supply contingencies.
If you describe batteries as a substitute for Baseload you really do not understand the difference between DC and AC and the massive grunt of Baseload and the absolute shortcomings of batteries to replace Baseload.

Since you're dead wrong about the meaning of baseload, there's no need to refute the rest of your nonsense.

[Marc1]

There is nothing magical about electric motors nor electric vehicles.

Electric motors are in fact a misnomer. They do convert electricity into mechanical energy but they do so second hand, after they get provided with the electricity from a generator that does the real conversion.
Rather pathetic if you ask me and just like a pneumatic tool or hydraulic that spins only due to the energy stored in the compressed air, compressed by a motor elsewhere, or oil pushed by a motor elsewhere. The compressed air is the electricity, the motor is just like a little fan that turns when you blow on it.

Take diesel locomotives ... They are called diesel because the power originates from diesel fuel. Yes, the big Detroit or Alco or MAN or Sulzer engine turns a DC generator that is hooked up to an electric motor that in turn, turns the wheels.
The electric motor is there only as a middle man, doing the bidding a gearbox does in any other vehicle.

It is the same with electric cars and likewise they should be called "coal cars", since the energy they drive on is originated from coal.

I think EV are only a provisional fist step away from petrol and will not last. The amount of energy that needs to be produced elsewhere in some central location, transported to the batteries and stored there to be delivered slowly to push the contraption makes the battery a ticking bomb. Just like petrol you say? Apparently much worse, but that is only opinion from the fireman who must attend the fires and can not extinguish them.

The future lays in a yet to be invented real engine, not second hand delivery boy, that actually produces energy from an inert and cheap source of energy.
That is an engine and that is the future. Electric motors are old hat, invented in 1828 and not the future by a long shot.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Marc1

Electric motors are in fact a misnomer. They do convert electricity into mechanical energy but they do so second hand, after they get provided with the electricity from a generator that does the real conversion.

You are mistaken. The electricity can come from anywhere - generators, solar, chemical reaction.

It is the same with electric cars and likewise they should be called "coal cars", since the energy they drive on is originated from coal.

Wrong. See above.

[lordgeoff]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Since you're dead wrong about the meaning of baseload, there's no need to refute the rest of your nonsense.

Lake.
Presumably you have a boat.
Presumably you tie up at Marinas from time to time and plug into a 110/240V Baseload Grid based electricity supply.
Presumably you also anchor from time to time.
Now. Honestly. Tell us all how a DC energy supply compared to what your baseload grid supplies. Your Marina plug supplies any and all of your electricity needs 24/7/375 without a blink. Now what are your battery limitations.
Now extrapolate that over a country and you will recognise a Tesla battery or a thousand Tesla batteries cannot do Baseload.
No Tesla battery produces electricity. It merely, in a clumsy and inefficient way stores electricity produced by a Baseload grid.
Do the simple calculations.
And please do not embarrass yourself by raising “renewables” as a replacement for a Baseload grid.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by lordgeoff

Lake.
Presumably you have a boat.
Presumably you tie up at Marinas from time to time and plug into a 110/240V Baseload Grid based electricity supply.
Presumably you also anchor from time to time.
Now. Honestly. Tell us all how a DC energy supply compared to what your baseload grid supplies. Your Marina plug supplies any and all of your electricity needs 24/7/375 without a blink. Now what are your battery limitations.
Now extrapolate that over a country and you will recognise a Tesla battery or a thousand Tesla batteries cannot do Baseload.
No Tesla battery produces electricity. It merely, in a clumsy and inefficient way stores electricity produced by a Baseload grid.
Do the simple calculations.
And please do not embarrass yourself by raising “renewables” as a replacement for a Baseload grid.

So, you don't still don't get the concept of 'baseload', or realize how ridiculous the non-term "baseload grid" is. Don't feel bad, not everyone's an EE or has bothered to read up on it.

The current capacity of the Australian electrical system is 50,000 megawatts (MW). The Tesla battery recently installed there can supply 100 MW. So.... how much power could 1000 such stations provide? (Hint 1000 x 100 MW). Of course provided there's enough primary generation (of any type, including renewables) to keep those batteries charged.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

You are mistaken. The electricity can come from anywhere - generators, solar, chemical reaction.

Wrong. See above.

His point is well taken though and one I try to make to EV fans, they all act as if the power just comes out of the wall, the wall must be magic as it has an inexhaustible supply of power.
Especially when the faithful start spouting how EV is zero emission, as if the power just springs from the wall and doesn’t have to be generated.
I particularly love those that say, well I’ll just put Solar panels on my roof, they will charge it.

It sounds a lot like the 1970’s when cars first started being fitted with catalytic converters, remember the TV commercial with the exhaust pipe steaming and the announcer saying it emits only harmless CO2 and water?

To make EV replace ICE, it’s going to take a massive increase in electrical production, so much so that it will likely take Nuclear to do it.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

His point is well taken though and one I try to make to EV fans, they all act as if the power just comes out of the wall, the wall must be magic as it has an inexhaustible supply of power.
Especially when the faithful start spouting how EV is zero emission, as if the power just springs from the wall and doesn’t have to be generated.
I particularly love those that say, well I’ll just put Solar panels on my roof, they will charge it.

Fair enough.

It sounds a lot like the 1970’s when cars first started being fitted with catalytic converters, remember the TV commercial with the exhaust pipe steaming and the announcer saying it emits only harmless CO2 and water?

i don't remember that ad, maybe it didn't run in Canada. Nonetheless, we should be somewhat grateful that vehicle emissions were reduced back then.

To make EV replace ICE, it’s going to take a massive increase in electrical production, so much so that it will likely take Nuclear to do it.

I think nuclear is a given.

If you take the simplistic case of electrics replacing ICE in all vehicles under the current vehicle numbers and usage, sure it looks huge. But there are a number of things going on simultaneously:

• Car ownership is going down among urban residents. You don't need to own one in a well-designed city. You can rent one for the few times you need it.
• Self driving cars will allegedly allow fewer cars to serve more people
• Mass transit WILL improve
• Increasing efficiency and conservation measures will free up some generation capacity
• The power grid will continue to evolve to match changing patterns of generation and use. Distributed storage will make better use of intermittent generators like wind and solar.

And it's still the case that generating and distributing electricity is more efficient and cleaner than refining fuels, trucking them all over and selling them at every corner.

[AKA-None]

Why does everyone assume that ALL electric generation must come from a centralized system?

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Fair enough.

i don't remember that ad, maybe it didn't run in Canada. Nonetheless, we should be somewhat grateful that vehicle emissions were reduced back then.


I think nuclear is a given.

If you take the simplistic case of electrics replacing ICE in all vehicles under the current vehicle numbers and usage, sure it looks huge. But there are a number of things going on simultaneously:

• Car ownership is going down among urban residents. You don't need to own one in a well-designed city. You can rent one for the few times you need it.
• Self driving cars will allegedly allow fewer cars to serve more people
• Mass transit WILL improve
• Increasing efficiency and conservation measures will free up some generation capacity
• The power grid will continue to evolve to match changing patterns of generation and use. Distributed storage will make better use of intermittent generators like wind and solar.

And it's still the case that generating and distributing electricity is more efficient and cleaner than refining fuels, trucking them all over and selling them at every corner.

Your going after it logically, and if logic is applied I think your right.
But currently vast majority of US auto sales are in SUV’s and Pickup trucks, which are completely illogical vehicles for 90% of the people buying them, so why would these people become logical if the power plant is electrical as opposed to ICE?
Think one of Fords first EV’s will be an F-150? Probably have half the range and four times the battery, let’s see.

However if we applied logic, then we would be driving ICE cars getting 70+ MPG right now, third gen Prius came out in 2010. Toyota could easily have pushed the then current Prius to 70 MPG, but instead built a larger, heavier Prius with a larger and more powerful ICE and kept the 50 MPG.
Prius was set to become its own vehicle line similar to the way Lexus was with small work vans etc. All returning phenomenal mileage, that was to be there hallmark, great mileage and environmentally low impact. But people wanted SUV’s so they went with what made money, and built V8 powered SUV’s.

Interestingly Toyota hasn’t jumped on the EV bandwagon, I don’t know why, but it’s curious.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by AKA-None

Why does everyone assume that ALL electric generation must come from a centralized system?

Because except for off grid people, it currently does, centralized windmills and Solar farms included.
Of course there are solar panels on roofs, but it doesn’t come to as much generation as you think it does and without storage, it’s erratic in delivery.