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Old 11-04-2020, 06:08   #1
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Biodiversity, Public Health, Climate, and Economics

Some very interesting analyses on Biodiversity, Public Health, Climate, and Economics
Obviously, the "garbage in, garbage out" rule, means any analysis built on mistaken assumptions, is probably wrong.
What do you think, of these?

“Poor planning for COVID-19 rings economic warning bell for climate” ~ by Don Pitts
Question for governments is how much to spend now to avert potential disaster later.
In the 1620s, living through the plague inspired economist and polymath William Petty to devise a system to count the cost of future calamity.
Part of the "political arithmetic" he invented includes concepts we use today to try to imagine how much it's worth spending now to prevent something worse from happening several years down the road, said Canadian economist Aidan Vining.
Unfortunately, our failure to prepare for an outbreak that epidemiologists have repeatedly warned was coming is a reminder that humans are not very good at thinking themselves into the future.
Morehttps://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cov...ttis-1.5528081

“Biodiversity loss and wildlife trade are making pandemics like COVID-19 more likely, experts say”
This is about what we're doing to nature, not about what nature is doing to us.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/p...d-19-1.5528063

”Public Health and Social Justice in the Age of Chadwick Britain 1800–1854"
~ by Stephen Corbett
https://academic.oup.com/heapro/article/14/4/381/708259

“The Economic Writings of Sir William Petty”
https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/p...am-petty-vol-1

“The Past, Present, and Future of Public Health Surveillance”
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/sci...2/875253/tab5/
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Old 11-04-2020, 06:55   #2
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Re: Biodiversity, Public Health, Climate, and Economics

Good morning, Gord.

" humans are not very good at thinking themselves into the future."

Or into the past, for that matter. While those who do not study history will repeat it, it's a psychological issue as well. We assume that what comes next is what is now. "Now" becomes a well constructed whole and evidence that now is not next runs smack into cognitive dissonance. When our "now" includes big SUVs, climate change is simply not believed, and scientists have been warning about that one far longer than they have pandemics. When our now includes large church services and beer parties on the beach, social distancing requires some brutal tragedies before we believe it is necessary.

The underlying psychology is not going to change. The societal changes will be very slow, and require some inspired leadership. After all, how long have we been fighting the illogical construct that "we" are superior and those people over there with darker skin are inferior?

Consider trying to convince a true believer in the status quo, a young earth creationist, that 30,000 years ago there were several species of hominid, of which our ancestors were one, simultaneously living on Earth?

I agreed with my primary physician Thursday that this pandemic is going to be the basis for a generation of PhD dissertations in everything from psychology to virology.

Our fearless leader does not see the tragedies but does see the money involved, so he wants to open up our country. Can scientists convince him of the human cost? Stay tuned, we'll soon know.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:07   #3
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Re: Biodiversity, Public Health, Climate, and Economics

Quote:
Originally Posted by tkeithlu View Post
". humans are not very good at thinking themselves into the future."
Or into the past, for that matter. While those who do not study history will repeat it, it's a psychological issue as well. We assume that what comes next is what is now. "Now" becomes a well constructed whole and evidence that now is not next runs smack into cognitive dissonance. When our "now" includes big SUVs, climate change is simply not believed, and scientists have been warning about that one far longer than they have pandemics...
Well said.
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Old 11-04-2020, 09:02   #4
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Re: Biodiversity, Public Health, Climate, and Economics

To accept evolutionary theory requires acceptance of of diversity of thought. Full stop. Psychologists don't seem either to get this and/or they fail to promote this understanding to the general public. Moreover, they routinely believe that with talk therapy evolution can be thwarted. Such is de facto attempting to play ~God (or whatever) that creates a lot of victims who are convinced by psychologists that they were born broken (i.e. same precise underlying narrative that the 'come listen to me talk on Sunday' folks use, just that the donations basket expects less than the therapist's receptionist). All this vs the Goethe approach that seeks to help people understand how unique they are, and why that uniqueness is valuable to everyone else.

If someone's racism, line of work, whatever, is abhorrent to most people...evolutionarily speaking...so what. These behaviors are ordinary and expected, if unfortunate to the masses. All this provides unlimited fodder for an infinite number PhDs theses, none of which provide any tangible utility outside of creating jobs for people in higher education, and those who sell stuff to those in higher education.

Let's not forget that a significant percentage of the human population conceptualizes events as occurring in cycles regardless of maximum human intervention. The cultures holding such crazy beliefs seem to be doing a lot better with Covid, meanwhile the dissonant dizzy "let's talk and study about how now is then and the future now" cultures insist on re-inventing the wheel every generation or three...learning things the hard way...again and again and again...which implies that in fact no learning actually takes place...only experience (that is frankly more often painful, or lethal).

At the end of the day, Covid is part of the climate...to separate it in the mind from the climate ought to be seen as problematic, but such is what PhD theses are all about.
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Old 12-04-2020, 04:03   #5
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Re: Biodiversity, Public Health, Climate, and Economics

The pace of biodiversity change in a warming climate

The timing of disruptions to biodiversity associated with global warming is a key, but little-explored, dimension of change. Will losses in biodiversity occur all at once, or be spread out over time?

Projections of the effects of climate change on multiple species are often made by estimating the change predicted for a single future time point; for example, by asking how the geographical distributions of multiple species will differ in 2100 from those today1. However, this approach does not capture the pace, timing or possible synchrony of biodiversity changes across time. Acute synchronous impacts can potentially be more damaging to a system than those spread over time, in terms of both human adaptation to biodiversity losses and ecosystem resilience. Writing in Nature, Trisos et al. report* an approach for predicting how climate change will affect future biodiversity patterns...
More about https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00975-9

* “The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change” ~ by Christopher H. Trisos, Cory Merow & Alex L. Pigot
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2189-9
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