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Old 17-02-2019, 23:57   #91
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Haven't read all comments, just an other aspect of recession: are the mooring/marina costs ever going to decline?
Your dollars buying less.
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Old 18-02-2019, 00:42   #92
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Your dollars buying less.
Yupp, that's the secret of the century long market rally...
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Old 18-02-2019, 08:57   #93
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Yupp, that's the secret of the century long market rally...
Market returns have out paced inflation by a substantial margin. This reflects increased human productivity in the last century due to mechanization of agriculture freeing 100s of millions of humans from having to labor as glorified draft animals.
Factory automation freed hundreds of millions from being drones. The coming AI revolution will free even more - the electronics on boats is a great example of this. The seas are full of cruisers in their 60s and beyond whose only chance of doing what we do is predicated on all the ďintelligenceĒ built into our devices.
Now if we could only recognize that the human species doesnít (and canít) reproduce so prolifically.
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Old 18-02-2019, 11:44   #94
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Market returns have out paced inflation by a substantial margin. This reflects increased human productivity in the last century due to mechanization of agriculture freeing 100s of millions of humans from having to labor as glorified draft animals.
Factory automation freed hundreds of millions from being drones. The coming AI revolution will free even more - the electronics on boats is a great example of this. The seas are full of cruisers in their 60s and beyond whose only chance of doing what we do is predicated on all the ďintelligenceĒ built into our devices.
Now if we could only recognize that the human species doesnít (and canít) reproduce so prolifically.
Market returns being a reflection of human productivity is a stretch.

When I looked at Tesla sometime back I remember reading that over a particular period of time their share price had gone from $20 to$380/share, during that same time they had lost 4.2 billion dollars, therefore I'm not really sure what the share price represents... thats one example. I'm really not even sure it represents equity although we are talking equity markets. Faith maybe, that's my best guess at..... anyway we are drifting abit.
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Old 18-02-2019, 12:19   #95
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Market returns have out paced inflation by a substantial margin. This reflects increased human productivity in the last century due to mechanization of agriculture freeing 100s of millions of humans from having to labor as glorified draft animals.
Factory automation freed hundreds of millions from being drones. The coming AI revolution will free even more - the electronics on boats is a great example of this. The seas are full of cruisers in their 60s and beyond whose only chance of doing what we do is predicated on all the “intelligence” built into our devices.
Now if we could only recognize that the human species doesn’t (and can’t) reproduce so prolifically.
Add the exponential growth of the population, which naturally drove resources and real estate prices. Hopefully this will slow down soon, because our species is eating up the last bits of the planet.

Another question, what do we call inflation? Real estate and healthcare costs are probably the largest expenditure in our lives, are these factored in correctly in the FED/ECB figures? Highly doubt, since most of us have to work longer to clear a mortgage than 50 years ago.

As for boating, some things got better: we buy the great boats of the 70's, 80's for chips, there is also much more safety. However, the crowd got much bigger.

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...
Faith maybe, that's my best guess at..... anyway we are drifting abit.
Exactly that! With a stock, you buy a piece of the future, which can be either grim or rosy.
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Old 18-02-2019, 12:43   #96
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

Nothing to do with recession, but:

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The seas are full of cruisers in their 60s and beyond whose only chance of doing what we do is predicated on all the ďintelligenceĒ built into our devices.
what kind of odd statement is this?
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Old 18-02-2019, 13:01   #97
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Market returns being a reflection of human productivity is a stretch.

When I looked at Tesla sometime back I remember reading that over a particular period of time their share price had gone from $20 to$380/share, during that same time they had lost 4.2 billion dollars, therefore I'm not really sure what the share price represents... thats one example. I'm really not even sure it represents equity although we are talking equity markets. Faith maybe, that's my best guess at..... anyway we are drifting abit.

It always amazes me that people can not tell the difference between investing and gambling.



When you buy blue chip dividend paying stocks that have a history of increasing their dividend your investing. Your buying a pc of a money making company.



When you buy a company like Tesla you are gambling. Also called speculation. This is the same for the dot com stocks of yesteryear and the pot stocks of today.



Of primary importance to my wife and I was that were invested in something rock solid that gave us a retirement income so we could go sailing. The above investment ideas are pretty recession proof. People still need power and they still need natural gas and the banks always come out on top... at least here in Canada.



In less than 7 months we will be leaving the frozen winters of the north behind and spending them somewhere south in the Caribbean.
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Old 18-02-2019, 14:22   #98
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

Looks to me like we're entering another major disruption driven by accelerating IT capabilities taking the place of former human tasks.

In the past, this has (mostly) been navigated by people finding new things to do. I'm not so sure we can, or should, continue to take this as an article of faith.

Funny thing... maybe now we can have rising mass un(der)employment coincident with rising GDP growth. It's pretty amazing to me that Facebook looks to be about as valuable as the entire US auto industry, but employs 35K people vs the US auto industries 2M. Luckily their "service" is "free". <-quotes important
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Old 18-02-2019, 14:39   #99
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Originally Posted by Dark Horse View Post
It always amazes me that people can not tell the difference between investing and gambling.



When you buy blue chip dividend paying stocks that have a history of increasing their dividend your investing. Your buying a pc of a money making company.



When you buy a company like Tesla you are gambling. Also called speculation. This is the same for the dot com stocks of yesteryear and the pot stocks of today.



Of primary importance to my wife and I was that were invested in something rock solid that gave us a retirement income so we could go sailing. The above investment ideas are pretty recession proof. People still need power and they still need natural gas and the banks always come out on top... at least here in Canada.



In less than 7 months we will be leaving the frozen winters of the north behind and spending them somewhere south in the Caribbean.
Maybe invest in a rock solid power company that can't go bad like PG&E? The difference in stock selection that you call investing versus gambling is just the amount of risk and potential reward you are willing to take. Any individual stock has significant risk, even if it is in a low risk environment with a great track record. The California power company PG&E has a nice history of dividends going back to 1912 or so, and now the California fires pushed it into bankruptcy.
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Old 18-02-2019, 16:16   #100
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Looks to me like we're entering another major disruption driven by accelerating IT capabilities taking the place of former human tasks.

In the past, this has (mostly) been navigated by people finding new things to do. I'm not so sure we can, or should, continue to take this as an article of faith.

Funny thing... maybe now we can have rising mass un(der)employment coincident with rising GDP growth. It's pretty amazing to me that Facebook looks to be about as valuable as the entire US auto industry, but employs 35K people vs the US auto industries 2M. Luckily their "service" is "free". <-quotes important
Read a book a bit ago about economic cycles and economic collapse. Basically the trend is that a country starts out making some products, innovation, hard work, R&D. It builds itself up, develops its financial sector. Then over time the countries energy flows from the real world production of tings into the financial sector where folks make money by financial manipilation. This inevitably leads to a bubble and realignment of worth, the financial bubble is propped up by speculation and trust, when that goes and you need to return to basics the bubble bursts and there is a collapse. The guy listed a whole bunch of cycles: colonial Spain, Holland, England, etc.

This time is different because we have a globalized economy and a globalized bubble.

Letís hope itís a recession, there are worst options.
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Old 18-02-2019, 16:34   #101
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

I'm not one to value something you can drop on your foot more highly than a service someone is willing to pay for. But that said, it does seem that boom-bust cycles were less severe back when 4/5 of the economy revolved around the food industry. My guess would be that once you moved to a 'widget economy' the cycles became more severe partly because people could put off buying a new widget more easily than they could put off buying food.

Interesting to speculate what happens when widgets become essentially valueless, and most services we can think of can be automated.
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Old 18-02-2019, 16:54   #102
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Read a book a bit ago about economic cycles and economic collapse. Basically the trend is that a country starts out making some products, innovation, hard work, R&D. It builds itself up, develops its financial sector. Then over time the countries energy flows from the real world production of tings into the financial sector where folks make money by financial manipilation. This inevitably leads to a bubble and realignment of worth, the financial bubble is propped up by speculation and trust, when that goes and you need to return to basics the bubble bursts and there is a collapse. The guy listed a whole bunch of cycles: colonial Spain, Holland, England, etc.

This time is different because we have a globalized economy and a globalized bubble.

Letís hope itís a recession, there are worst options.
Thatís an excellet book, used by the Harvard Business School.
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Old 18-02-2019, 17:01   #103
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Maybe invest in a rock solid power company that can't go bad like PG&E? The difference in stock selection that you call investing versus gambling is just the amount of risk and potential reward you are willing to take. Any individual stock has significant risk, even if it is in a low risk environment with a great track record. The California power company PG&E has a nice history of dividends going back to 1912 or so, and now the California fires pushed it into bankruptcy.

First you invest in many power companies. Diversity so all your eggs are not in one basket.



Second I thing PG&E got screwed and I am not a corporatist. Corporations should be responsible for what they do but PG&E was not responsible for the fires.



Bad laws are hard for an investor to defend against.
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Old 18-02-2019, 17:06   #104
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Originally Posted by hpeer View Post
Read a book a bit ago about economic cycles and economic collapse. Basically the trend is that a country starts out making some products, innovation, hard work, R&D. It builds itself up, develops its financial sector. Then over time the countries energy flows from the real world production of tings into the financial sector where folks make money by financial manipilation. This inevitably leads to a bubble and realignment of worth, the financial bubble is propped up by speculation and trust, when that goes and you need to return to basics the bubble bursts and there is a collapse. The guy listed a whole bunch of cycles: colonial Spain, Holland, England, etc.

This time is different because we have a globalized economy and a globalized bubble.

Let’s hope it’s a recession, there are worst options.

All the news says the economy is booming... But its only booming for some. Employment numbers are good but wages are not going up.


Regardless the economy is cyclic and recessions inevitable follow booms. Hence the desire for value stocks that can weather the storm. Benjamin Graham.....
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Old 18-02-2019, 17:06   #105
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Thatís an excellet book, used by the Harvard Business School.
What is it?
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