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Old 14-02-2019, 09:28   #16
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

That's part of the reason we decided not to sell our home. We have modest incomes, but we've saved close to 100k, plan to finance a good used boat as soon as we find the one we want, and sail into approaching retirement until we feel we're done, and then sell the boat.

Whatever we spent on a lifestyle we love, I consider worth it.
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Old 14-02-2019, 10:01   #17
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

Kudos to the original poster.

Sorry if what follows seems pedantic.

From my perspective, ( a Ph.D. in Finance) the imminent economic situation (2019-2020) is not good. Economic systems reset regularly, the duration/intensity being the result of causal factors. The more 'structural' the cause, the worse the reset. The last recession, while bad, was actually minimized by the world's reserve banks flooding capital markets. At effectively zero interest rates, there was a massive wealth transfer of savings to corporations and the very wealthy.


After ten years, there is no longer a high probability of the next recession--it is underway at the moment. For those wanting 'proof', the evidence is abundant: look at the major international players (China, Germany, US, Japan). However, you will need to do this outside the mainstream media. I say this because of the dominant political agenda. There are any number of websites/blogs with good insight into what is happenning.



The only question is how bad it will get. For most of us cruisers, our income depends on retirement funds, 401K, pension plans, social security etc. Given the 'evidence' I am seeing, I worry more about those failing than the 'value' of my boat. Do not think social security is guaranteed. In an economic crisis, everything is on the table.




Possible outcomes range from more of the same:
Reserve banks continue QE (quantitative easing), flooding markets with even more low interest debt. The result is low GNP gains with massive increases in debt. This will only postpone the inevitable, or result in a prolonged period of very slow recovery.



to a massive global implosion.


Other than buy gold as a hedge, or invest in real, incoming producing assets there is not much you can to do except tighten your belt. Imagine a structural collapse of banking, currencies, etc. with so much debt outstanding that governments are unable to do much about it except flood the world with more fiat money--think inflation. Another reason to buy gold/real assets.


Now, I've done my doom and gloom thing, to answer the original poster.


Asset values (your catamaran) will fluctuate based on demand and supply, and the rate of currency exchange, itself the result of demand and supply for the exchange currencies. Factors influencing exchange rates include relative inflation, interest rates, real GNP growth, various risk elements, and so on.
If I was trying to avoid the issue you raise, I'd buy gold as a store of (perceived) value and medium of exchange. If you had a monohull, you could store it in the keel.
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Old 14-02-2019, 10:23   #18
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

I bought my boat because I enjoy boating, not to make money. If your worried about the resale value, you own it for the wrong reason, and it's going to cost you big time. Get out now before somethin breaks.
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Old 14-02-2019, 10:25   #19
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Originally Posted by Wallaby View Post
---------------------snip----------------------------

If I was trying to avoid the issue you raise, I'd buy gold as a store of (perceived) value and medium of exchange. If you had a monohull, you could store it in the keel.
Great line!
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Old 14-02-2019, 11:03   #20
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Hi guys,

You all remember the recession in 2008 when the eurusd dropped to 1,10 from 1,60 just in 3-4 months.
Consider that you bought your cat for 300.000€ before the recession and sailed for 5 years , the boat depreciated almost %30 and another -45.000 usd because of the eurusd. Now you have 150.000€ , half of your money is gone. We may have the same situation for the boat buyers who have their boats since 2010.Europe has many problems now;france,germany,italy ,you name it. If the euro goes down to 0,80 in the coming 4-5 years ,what will you do ?
Would you go and invest your money in a potential depreciating currency now?

I want to hear your thoughts about the topic and ideas to hedge our position.

Thanks,
The American economy is booming right now, though you won't hear news of it in the drive-by media. If you think that the Left will prevail in undermining America, then you'll likely be waiting for asset prices (like yachts) to crash before buying.
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Old 14-02-2019, 11:06   #21
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

If you live in the US, buy American. Then you do not have to worry about relative currency fluctuations. We, like others treat our sailboat like our cars - we do not worry about resale, but just enjoy it and buy only what we can afford.
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Old 14-02-2019, 11:19   #22
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Originally Posted by bobnlesley View Post
No ideas or opinions to offer whatsoever. A major reason for our buying a boat and sailing away was to stop having to spend my days thinking or caring about stuff like that and I'm prepared to bet that I'm not the only one. Oh and it worked
The only sensible answer.
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Old 14-02-2019, 11:24   #23
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

I'll be 69 next month. I'm hoping to have some more good years. 5,10,15 hopefully before I have to give it up. I don't have a boat to make money. I have a boat because I love the life style. If it was all about the duckets I wouldn't have a money pit hole in the water. I love my money pit hole in the water.
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Old 14-02-2019, 11:34   #24
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Would you go and invest your money in a potential depreciating currency now?
Investing in a boat is an oxymoron.

Buying at the wrong time is only relative when comparing the market at purchase time as compared to the market at sell time. Buy low/sell low and buy high/sell high is irrelevant. Obviously, you don't want to buy high sell low. Everyone is chasing the dream of buying low and selling high.

In your case, it is only an issue if you intend on buying at the top and selling at the bottom of the market. Market cycles typically run 10 years +/-.

In other words, if you plan on holding onto the boat for 10 years or more, then there is a chance it will be irrelevant.
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Old 14-02-2019, 11:36   #25
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

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Originally Posted by chakil View Post
Would you go and invest your money in a potential depreciating currency now?

I want to hear your thoughts about the topic and ideas to hedge our position.

Thanks,
Are you talking about sailing/travelling or investing?

Buying a boat is no more an investment than buying a bicycle. It's bought for you to enjoy/consume.
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Old 14-02-2019, 11:41   #26
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

The Euro is bankrupt just like the USD and all other fiat currencies. If you still have a seaworthy boat, a house that keeps the rain off your head and maybe a car that drives, you still have all the real value and functionality that you paid for in the first place. How it's now (or years from now) denominated in phony, created out of thin air, electronically money, including Bitcoin, doesn't matter as long as you maintain your possessions.

And if it really hits the fan and things get really sketchy, well, you have a boat, leave.
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Old 14-02-2019, 11:56   #27
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

If you are so concerned about currency fluctuations maybe sailing is not for you. Good luck with it.
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Old 14-02-2019, 12:08   #28
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

Previous boat was named D`Z Poz e bl.
Current boat named NON$ENSE

Not an asset , just toys to enjoy

Currency exchange-BS-go sailing!
If you worry about that stuff you will never be happy.
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Old 14-02-2019, 12:24   #29
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

In sailing, as in most things involving a degree of risk,
“If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail!” (Ben Franklin)
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Old 14-02-2019, 12:25   #30
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Re: Sailing in recession ?

Different views and great people, I love this forum.
Dont get me wrong I dont buy a boat for investment and I must say I had 3 motoryachts before and sold them all with profit. So it happens..
When we start to liveaboard , we will not have the same income and we just need to be secure to make this life sustainable. We dont want to give up after 10 years and move to a house.
We are in early 40s now and we have 2-3 years to go.
And its really harf to decide whether to buy a Oceanis 43 or a Lagoon 400 when you can afford a Lagoon. Of course anyone would like to buy the Lagoon but maybe you would sleep better in the Oceanis with money in your acc and dont care if something breaks or else.
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