IS CRUISING DEAD or DYING, STABLE or GROWING?

[MicHughV]

I spend a lot of time around marina's, the waterfront, boat brokerages, etc....and one thing I do notice...no face masks....I never see them...not on anyone...not the locals, not the marina staff, fuel dock attendants, not the boat brokers, not the mechanics...not the people that come to buy/visit or the fishermen or otherwise people that use their boat...no one.....no social distancing either....seems to my eye....life as per usual...boats get hauled out and people are washing them down side by side, cleaning their catch, side by side at the cleaning table, etc....young, old, children, across the board...
I have heard of no problems that may have originated in this environment....not one....and this has been going on for months now.

I know that there are those that won't walk to their mailbox from their front door to get their mail without a face mask...
But from where I stand, I don't know where these " daily C-19" numbers come from...in the marine environment, there appears to be little evidence of concern.
Good, bad, right, wrong...??? Just telling you what I see.

[rslifkin]

Being outside does reduce the risks due to better airflow. At my marina most are good about having masks with them. But most also avoid standing close enough for it to be an issue.

[atoll]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

I spend a lot of time around marina's, the waterfront, boat brokerages, etc....and one thing I do notice...no face masks....I never see them...not on anyone...not the locals, not the marina staff, fuel dock attendants, not the boat brokers, not the mechanics...not the people that come to buy/visit or the fishermen or otherwise people that use their boat...no one.....no social distancing either....seems to my eye....life as per usual...boats get hauled out and people are washing them down side by side, cleaning their catch, side by side at the cleaning table, etc....young, old, children, across the board...
I have heard of no problems that may have originated in this environment....not one....and this has been going on for months now.

I know that there are those that won't walk to their mailbox from their front door to get their mail without a face mask...
But from where I stand, I don't know where these " daily C-19" numbers come from...in the marine environment, there appears to be little evidence of concern.
Good, bad, right, wrong...??? Just telling you what I see.

i guess happy hour is not a thing any more at the marina bar

[MicHughV]

in interesting factoid.....around here...Florida
if you serve food, you can also serve alcohol....
but if you are a straight bar...sorry....doors are closed.
restaurants require face mask when walking thru' the door...but once seated...face masks can come off...natch....would be hard to eat thru' a face mask....
there is supposed to be " social distancing" between tables, but seems to be a loosy goosy requirement near as I can tell...outside seating spacing is especially questionable.
outside seating is usually also where the smokers hang out...so take your pick.....smoke or germs...

[MicHughV]

we don't have any face mask requirements at our local beach either....usually hordes of people to be seen....big groups..small groups..families...individuals...walking..playing. ..swimming...surfing....fishing...etc..etc...
'jes sayin'....

[Jim Cate]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

we don't have any face mask requirements at our local beach either....usually hordes of people to be seen....big groups..small groups..families...individuals...walking..playing. ..swimming...surfing....fishing...etc..etc...
'jes sayin'....

And 257 deaths yesterday, according to the NYT... do ya suppose there is some correlation?

Jim

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by Jim Cate

And 257 deaths yesterday, according to the NYT... do ya suppose there is some correlation?

Jim

Possibly something not related to the thread.


Let's hope people who are buying boats now are right and they will be able to cruise sooner rather than later.



b.

[kmacdonald]

Let's hope the flurry people that are buying boats and RV's are wrong and time is not running out.

[MicHughV]

I get it.....people are dying from Covid.....but also dying from a myriad of other illnesses, murder, car accidents, etc, etc,
The Covid death number needs to be put in perspective...
I would like to see a report that says...
Today's death causes...
Covid..."XX" number
Murder .."XX" number
Old age... "XX" number....
Heart attack...."XX" number
Stroke...."XX" number...
accidents..."XX" number...
drugs..."XX" number...
alcohol..."XX" number
war..."XX" number
etc, etc, etc....

just the other day, we had a local report...." 100 yr old woman dies from Covid "...one may ask...Covid or old age ???

then there is this...many people survive Covid....95%...yes/no ??

The Covid issue seems media driven to me....just my opinion off course.... but here, 10 murders in one day doesn't cause a ripple...but a 100 yr old woman in a nursing home dying from Covid makes national news..

I'd just like to see some perspective on the issue...."XX" deaths in Florida...Florida is a big place.....where did these deaths occur ??....how many in relationship to all the other deaths...that's what I would like to know.

and now the big drug companies are duking it out for a vaccine...??

boating folk are typically also your next door neighbor kind of person....they come from all parts of town...it just makes my head spin......

[MicHughV]

I spend way to much time here...Covid has addled my brain....I want my life back

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

I get it.....people are dying from Covid.....but also dying from a myriad of other illnesses, murder, car accidents, etc, etc,
The Covid death number needs to be put in perspective....

Why do you suppose it's big news when a airplane crashes and lots die? Or even a few people die from a terrorist attack. If you put it in perspective, it's nothing. But that misses the point entirely. These are new deaths. That's what makes it so noteworthy.

The new deaths brought about by this pandemic are hugely significant when put in perspective. Florida is now the epicenter of this global disease. Seems hard to downplay.

[Lou-In-NJ]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

I could not tell you why, but I have a friend in the boat brokerage business..new and used.....he tells me business has never been so good...it seems to fly in the face of all the doom and gloom one hears today... not just your average $50K fishing boat, but $500K plus boats....will it last...only time will tell.

Wow! Sounds like a lot of people selling their homes in tony suburbs, to a yuppie couples who think $2MM is a bargain to get out of the city...and the sellers pocket $1MM+ after buying their boat!?

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I think the reason is Covid Confinement. Now that we're all more limited in where and how we can vacation people are turning to parks, RVs and boats.

Unless this pandemic becomes a permanent normal I expect this will be a short-lived blip. Actually, there will likely be some excellent deals on RVs and boats a year or two out when (if?) things get back to normal.

It will be interesting, but who knows, maybe people are thinking that spending hours with a few hundred people traveling by airplane, isn't safe now, and they're actually thinking long-term and re-orienting themselves.

Originally Posted by barnakiel

The fact that (in some parts of the world) second hand boat market is booming has little to do with what will happen to cruising next. Very very few boats that we buy ever go cruising (I think < 1%), whatever times we think of. Boats mostly live in marinas these days.

By the way, I am pretty shocked somewhere people buy like mad (anything, except gold maybe). All wild animals and businessmen stock up before a long winter. With plenty of uncertainty ahead and horrible economy data (they say worst since the great recession) only a fool jumps head first into yet another cost.

I am 99% sure 99% of these buyers have not read the news yesterday.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...second-quarter

barnakiel

The U.S. economy is a huge concern of mine. I got clients out of the market on February 4th (most listened) because of a number of growing concerns I had, and the Dow was flirting with a new high of 29k, it hit that the next day, and the day after that we had another new all-time high, and that was when one client's wife called me and asked if they should get back in, I told her my fundamental reasoning hadn't changed...(husband later told me he took a lot of crap for 20 days until the market tanked.) Anyway, my more risk tolerant folks to a ride with me and got back in at Dow 19k, and rode it back to 27k and got out again, and at that same time, the stragglers who didn't listen to me in February, were all to happy to hear from me again and get off the roller-coaster after they had at least made back their losses and actually had a YTD gain.

So this is a trader's market and we're all in cash, and that's the way it's going to be for a while, and your Bloomberg article is one reason why.

As far as growth in boat ownership leading to new cruisers, I would imagine it's a law of numbers proposition; only boat owners can become cruisers, and some percentage of boat owners will become cruisers, so if there is an increase in boat owners, it just stands to reason that there will eventually be a bump in cruisers as well...

[sailorboy1]

I was going to comment based on some other posts, but by time I got to the thread end I didn't know the topic anymore. Thought it was about cruising, but now appears to be about the virus and the market

[PM2017]

I’m in the process of moving onto a cat in SE Florida. It’s not necessarily out of concern for the economy or civic unrest but merely the fact that I know I want to retire on a sailboat so I figured it’s better to be on one 10-15 days a month than just a day or two. I want to use that time to get to know the nuances of being on a boat full-time.

[Lou-In-NJ]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

I was going to comment based on some other posts, but by time I got to the thread end I didn't know the topic anymore. Thought it was about cruising, but now appears to be about the virus and the market

Please do comment sailorboy1. What you're observing is a drill-down on certain aspects that affect what people are, and will be doing. But you're observations, whether general, or particular to any of the posts, are still very much wanted!

Originally Posted by PM2017

I’m in the process of moving onto a cat in SE Florida. It’s not necessarily out of concern for the economy or civic unrest but merely the fact that I know I want to retire on a sailboat so I figured it’s better to be on one 10-15 days a month than just a day or two. I want to use that time to get to know the nuances of being on a boat full-time.

Nice! I think for us, we will always have a house or condo/apartment. I think we'll do "excursions"...a few months here and there, and then back to terraferma.