Hurricane Measures

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

You know I never said anything at all about Cat 5, you guys did.
I’m 25 miles inland, west of Jacksonville, up a creek so to speak with very little fetch. Even if Jax got hit with a Cat 3 I think I would see a fraction of that.
But yes as I have lines leading to my sheet winches and to my windlass, I do think I could adjust and replace lines in pretty high winds, but maybe just as or more importantly do something about the boat beside of me that the owner didn’t even send someone to, that is single lined and they look old and rotten. I did add a new line of his midship cleat to hopefully keep him connected to the dock. Or maybe fend off other boats, add a fender etc.

But no, I never said anything about riding out a Cat 5 or even close to one, that was you guys. There are lots more 1’s and 2’s that hit than 5’s, and lots of boats are damaged in those 1’s and 2’s also.
As far as forecasts, I used to say they are guesses at 24 hours out, but that has stretched to 48 hours, beyond that I think they are still guesses, made by many highly educated professionals, but still best guesses.
However the car is in the parking lot, should the forecast change or be wrong, I get in it and am way inland in a couple of hours.
Different of course if your in the Islands as there is no place to go.

In my case the Cat 5 comment came from the context of Dorian...which is the 'cane you are hiding from.

I didnt know your exact circumstances. Far inland improves the situation, but I would still consider taking a vacation even further inland after securing the boat.

Ive lived in the hurricane belt most of my life and have seen first hand the aftermath of several Cat 4/5 storms....that made an impression.

[fcftampa]

When looking at Dorian videos, notice how almost all sailboats lost their masts.

I only had high school physics/math so probably a lot of mistakes: But would this be a good approximation of the strength of Dorian in the Bahamas, these would be the numbers to calc the force of the wind on a person.

Fw = 1/2 ρ v2 A
ρ=1.2 density of air (which if it's on surface of water who knows!)
80m/s 185mph
human 1 meter squared (a bit overweight )
Fw=.5*1.2*80^2*1

Roughly 4000 N which is about 400kg or 880lbs
How much force on your boat with it's inertia, waves, surge, etc?

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by acem

So why not go to sea well ahead of the hurricane and sail for open water?

With modern electronics you can get weather reports at sea and sail to avoid the worst of the storm.

Thx-Ace

OK. But you want plenty of fuel and a boat that powers well.


Wind conditions ahead of a tropical storm will vary and not always you have enough wind to sail off effectively.


Another limitation is how early you move vs. hurricane onward speed. You move too early and you may as well sail INTO its shifted track. You move too late and it may just as well roll over you in no time.


This much said, what you propose is an old and tested method and getting away is a good option for many small craft. Big powerful ships (navy,cargo,cruisers) also do this as a rule.


Cheers,
b.

[Spindrift NH]

As the op started this as a liveaboard thread, I’ll address based on my experience. Living and working full time in Charleston we’ve had to go through this each of the 4 hurricane seasons that we’ve been here. My philosophy is plan for the worst, hope for the best. With the uncertainty of storm path and shortage of haul-out facilities here, I’ve put together what I feel is a good anchoring system with no less than 7 snubbers attached to 4 different cleats all with chafe protection. I have two over size anchors(Rocna & Bruce) each on 145’ of 3/8” chain connected to 30’ of top chain with snubbers. As the boat pulls on the top chain the double chains act as a Kellet of sorts, the more pull on the chain the more weight that is added to the catenary and less shock load on the snubbers. That’s the theory anyway. I feel much better having my boat at anchor than in its slip where there are lots of hard objects that can hit it or surge allowing the docks to float off the pilings. I find that other owners in my marina, and I suspect many marinas, have never even anchored overnight in good weather much less than preparing for something like a hurricane!
Anyway, I took a photo of our home as we left it two days ago, I hope we have a home to return to.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by fcftampa

When looking at Dorian videos, notice how almost all sailboats lost their masts.



I only had high school physics/math so probably a lot of mistakes: But would this be a good approximation of the strength of Dorian in the Bahamas, these would be the numbers to calc the force of the wind on a person.



Fw = 1/2 ρ v2 A

ρ=1.2 density of air (which if it's on surface of water who knows!)

80m/s 185mph

human 1 meter squared (a bit overweight )

Fw=.5*1.2*80^2*1



Roughly 4000 N which is about 400kg or 880lbs

How much force on your boat with it's inertia, waves, surge, etc?

We have brought up the lost masts a few times before.
My personal belief is that a lot of the lost masts are due to flying debris. A mast is of course a tube in compression, if you dimple that tube, it loses a large amount of its strength.
I find it hard to believe that the air load alone could collapse a mast.
That kind of air load would completely obliterate any kind of building, and yet you usually see some still standing, or parts of some anyway.

Another theory that holds I believe a lot of merit is that the mast gets into a harmonic mode that collapses it.
We have I’m sure all felt our mast shake in winds.

[Hudson Force]

I'm pretty much aligned with a64pilot's thought with this issue. During my 45 years of liveaboard cruising based in Florida my wife and I prepared for many tropical storms and hurricanes. We always took the same precautions and, as expected, we usually prepared for events that missed us; however, you must be ready.

I respect those that rely on insurance or leave the boat with more risk because they are more concerned with a house or business, but Florida hull coverage for hurricane protection can be prohibitive. Our choice was to move for more protection at anytime that a hurricane had the potential to strike within three days. You can't wait for finding a passage inland because bridges will not open for boats when people in cars are crowding evacuation routes.

These are the frequent steps we took to keep our liability only insured boat safe in Florida since the early 1970's:

1) We moved inland,- St. Johns River, St Lucie River (Okeechobee Waterway), New River, Caloosahatchee River (also Okeechobee Waterway), etc. The first priority is to move away from the coast.

2) We removed windage - Our decks were cleared,- main and mizzen booms with the sails on them were stored in our aft cabin, roller furling was taken down.

3) We anchored in a location with little fetch,- preferably no more than a quarter mile of open water in any direction. This location would be best with shallow water (6"-10", allowing a good rode ratio with rising water) & good holding, - 250-300' of chain with a well suited anchor. We kept a multiple series of shock absorbing snubbers that could be chafed away in turn. We found a benefit at anchor allowing us to always present our best aerodynamics to the wind and with little fetch waves don't form.

We were always able to find these first three criteria. The last three were usually found with some degree of success.

4) - a location with elevated surrounding protection,- a bluff, buildings, trees..

5) - a location without a forgiving river bank, 'no rocks, cement blukheads, docks, loose debris, snags and logs, etc.

6) - a location that is not occupied with other boats also hiding out for the storm.

During these years we were usually missed by the bigger storms and we never had any experience over 110 mph. Our only storm damage over 45 years was about 18" of rubber rub rail. Some might say that we were just lucky, but we did prepare.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

In my case the Cat 5 comment came from the context of Dorian...which is the 'cane you are hiding from.

I didnt know your exact circumstances. Far inland improves the situation, but I would still consider taking a vacation even further inland after securing the boat.

Ive lived in the hurricane belt most of my life and have seen first hand the aftermath of several Cat 4/5 storms....that made an impression.

I grew up mostly in the Panhandle or close by, my first big hurricane memory was Camille, we bought land on Alligator point after Camille as it was cheap then, not as many people wanted a beach house after Camille.
It’s been interesting to see the evolution of how houses near the beach were built, and where they were built.
Dorian is I believe a 2 now, it will pass by us early this afternoon. I believe about 100 miles from me. Right now we have about 10 kts of wind with of course higher winds in the thunderstorms, we hit 50 kts last night, but that was pure thunderstorm, no way was that the Hurricane. Of course sometimes I believe they have imbedded tornadoes too? I think due purely to Luck of the draw this will be a non event for us.
Sometimes they move fast, and you need to run from those, but Dorian is a crawler for whatever reason, it’s like being chased by Frankenstein. If your on the mainland, it’s easy to escape from in a car.
Remember I’m not on the peninsula of Fl. From Jax you can run in any direction from due West to due North, if your on the peninsula, you first have to exit it, which makes evac much more difficult and lengthy.
Anyway I sent the Wife away for Irma and I stayed in Brunswick, Irma was a compete non event for Brunswick, a few limbs down, an abandoned service station had its roof over where the pump used to be blow over etc.
However they wouldn’t let people back for a week. I’m sure the concern was over the wealthy houses on the islands being secured, but people who did evacuate were now left with having to buy at least a weeks worth of Hotel rooms, eating out for a week etc.

So now I choose to evacuate only if it looks like an impact will occur and not evacuate early.
I didn’t have a boat back then, but Savannah was evacuated In I think 99. We didn’t take the official route which was I-16 which turned into a one way four lane highway. I heard later from others that took the official route that I-16 was a huge parking lot.
We went South and then West to my Father’s house on nearly empty roads the entire way.

So over the years my plan has evolved I guess, hopefully it’s evolved into a decent one, but I’m always ready to evacuate, just I don’t pull that trigger as early as I used to.

[sdowney717]

If you move into a war zone, expect to be shot or killed, if you keep your boat in a place where major hurricanes come every couple years, expect to loose your boat. Yes, you can live in safer places, people who live where they want, are being foolish if they dont expect some of those places to be poor choices some of the time they live there.

[daletournier]

When cyclone rated 4 to 5 hit Cardwell Qld Australia 2010 the marina was wiped out, I think mainly due to storm surge floating the docks of the pylons, see photo. There was talk of the pylons being cut a little lower , when I was there they didnt seem abnormal to me.

A friend of mine took his Peterson 44 into the near by mangroves, tied it of best he could and then dinghied to safety. His boat survived with zero damage, the boats in the marina all ended piled up.

I'm a big fan of the mangrove strategy.

Another mate was happy because he lost his clansmen which he was trying to sell, he made some money.

[Group9]

We don’t have mangroves, but we use the same principle. This is us tied off for hurricane Nate about ten miles north of the gulf in a bayou. Those lines are two hundred feet long and tied to trees that survived Katrina. The slack one is an anchor line.

[Nicholson58]

Originally Posted by owly

Doesn't look quite so bleak now.... for the East Coast, but I can't imagine being in the
Bahamas. Looking at past hurricane tracks, they all seem to originate off the coast of Africa south of the Cape Verde Islands and sweep right down the classic Transat Route at the beginning and curl northward into the Caribbean and northward in an arc. The safest place to be in would be around Guyana or Surinam or French Guyana........ or parts south A good time to be cruising Brazil Uruguay, and Argentina....... or about anywhere in the Southern Hemisphere, or over in Europe or the UK. All of South America..east and west coasts and Southwestern Africa seem pretty immune. One couldn't choose a better home base than somewhere in South America, or Southwestern Africa, or the American west coast from CA to AK.


These things are getting worse every year more or less it seems, which follows closely with climate change, weather you are a believer or an ostrich like the guy in the White House (apologies to the ostrich), as they really do not bury their head in the sand....an old but useful myth.

H.W.

At the risk of disagreement, NOAA and other sources note that storm intensity and frequency has not increased relative to pre industrial levels. The value of loss to property and infrastructure has increased as we have built massive infrastructure in the path of storms. Life loss is decreased because we have better predictive tools and preparation. Losses to plywood and tin shacks in the Caribbean and Bahamas are predictably near total.

You need not head for South America, Brazil, etc. The NOAA storm tracks I posted above and again here shows the safe zones. Note Trinidad 🇹🇹 in the little circle. Many boats are on the hard in Grenada, Trinidad, Curaçao, Panama. These are out of the zone as is most of the western Caribbean, San Blas, Panama and others. Many boats shift their cruising grounds to Trinidad & Tobago, Grenada, Cariacou and the Tobago Cays as well as parts of South America. Bonaire is a great dive and snorkeling destination also out of danger. If you stay aboard it is relatively easy to pop south anytime a storm threatens. The survivable winds in most hurricanes passing the Caribbean are pretty near to the center, meaning you only need be 50 to 100 miles south in safe anchorage to miss it. This is only a day sail and NOAA generally gives five days or more warning to get away. The storms pass east to west through the windward, leeward Islands that are north - south oriented. Escape is easy. Not so for the east coast. There is no reason for a prudent sailor to be at risk in the Caribbean. Hurricane Irma flattened Barbuda at Cat 5 while Antigua 30 miles south experienced 45 knot winds. Zero losses in Jolly Harbor, English Harbor, Falmouth Harbor. I can’t believe people actually parked boats in the Bahamas for hurricane season and that their insurers wrote policy to cover them. Our policy requires us to out of the zone if we are not aboard.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by daletournier

When cyclone rated 4 to 5 hit Cardwell Qld Australia 2010 the marina was wiped out, I think mainly due to storm surge floating the docks of the pylons, see photo. There was talk of the pylons being cut a little lower , when I was there they didnt seem abnormal to me.

A friend of mine took his Peterson 44 into the near by mangroves, tied it of best he could and then dinghied to safety. His boat survived with zero damage, the boats in the marina all ended piled up.

I'm a big fan of the mangrove strategy.

Another mate was happy because he lost his clansmen which he was trying to sell, he made some money. Attachment 199198

There's a fair amount of difference in the Category rating systems between Atlantic storms and Australian storms. More than metric vs imperial.

An Australian tropical cyclone Category Five >107 kt.
An Atlantic Category 5 is max sustained wind speed of 137kts.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

I grew up mostly in the Panhandle or close by, my first big hurricane memory was Camille, we bought land on Alligator point after Camille as it was cheap then, not as many people wanted a beach house after Camille.
It’s been interesting to see the evolution of how houses near the beach were built, and where they were built.
Dorian is I believe a 2 now, it will pass by us early this afternoon. I believe about 100 miles from me. Right now we have about 10 kts of wind with of course higher winds in the thunderstorms, we hit 50 kts last night, but that was pure thunderstorm, no way was that the Hurricane. Of course sometimes I believe they have imbedded tornadoes too? I think due purely to Luck of the draw this will be a non event for us.
Sometimes they move fast, and you need to run from those, but Dorian is a crawler for whatever reason, it’s like being chased by Frankenstein. If your on the mainland, it’s easy to escape from in a car.
Remember I’m not on the peninsula of Fl. From Jax you can run in any direction from due West to due North, if your on the peninsula, you first have to exit it, which makes evac much more difficult and lengthy.
Anyway I sent the Wife away for Irma and I stayed in Brunswick, Irma was a compete non event for Brunswick, a few limbs down, an abandoned service station had its roof over where the pump used to be blow over etc.
However they wouldn’t let people back for a week. I’m sure the concern was over the wealthy houses on the islands being secured, but people who did evacuate were now left with having to buy at least a weeks worth of Hotel rooms, eating out for a week etc.

So now I choose to evacuate only if it looks like an impact will occur and not evacuate early.
I didn’t have a boat back then, but Savannah was evacuated In I think 99. We didn’t take the official route which was I-16 which turned into a one way four lane highway. I heard later from others that took the official route that I-16 was a huge parking lot.
We went South and then West to my Father’s house on nearly empty roads the entire way.

So over the years my plan has evolved I guess, hopefully it’s evolved into a decent one, but I’m always ready to evacuate, just I don’t pull that trigger as early as I used to.

Well, at least it turned out to only be a hypothetical debate...a non-event for you now.

As a kid, Camille was my first exposure to a major hurricane too. I still vividly remember the many boats & ships thrown up on the shore like pool toys...especially the banana boat (a freighter with a cargo of bananas thrown ashore an cracked like an egg...bananas everywhere).

Decades later, drove thru Homestead just after Andrew...it was just gone...nothing but debri and slabs.

Tough times for the Bahamas, glad to see so many pitching in to help.

[owly]

Originally Posted by Nicholson58

At the risk of disagreement, NOAA and other sources note that storm intensity and frequency has not increased relative to pre industrial levels. The value of loss to property and infrastructure has increased as we have built massive infrastructure in the path of storms. Life loss is decreased because we have better predictive tools and preparation. Losses to plywood and tin shacks in the Caribbean and Bahamas are predictably near total.

Hurricane frequency is extremely erratic from year to year..... Probably little changed over the long term, the percentage of extremely powerful storms very definitely IS going up..... This of course includes Pacific storms, which are the majority, as well as Atlantic storms.......... this observation can be found in many reputable sources. There is no question that populations and infrastructure along the coastlines in vulnerable areas has increased drastically...... that does magnify the damage, increase losses of life and property, and increase the perception that the storms are stronger, as does the sea level rise, but the storms themselves are in fact stronger on average than in the past..........

There is however little point in arguing the point, just as there is little point in arguing climate change..... You can find material to support just about any position.
I'm reminded of something a friend of mine once said about lawyers. "A lawyer uses facts like a drunk uses a lamppost.... for support rather than illumination"... that pretty well sums up this kind of argument.


H.W.

[a64pilot]

Of course it’s only beginning of Sept, peak season isn’t for another week or so, we still have time for round two.
I hope not, but it’s not impossible, I’m not putting sails back on etc not for at least another month anyway.