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Old 04-09-2019, 22:57   #46
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Re: Hurricane Measures

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There's a fair amount of difference in the Category rating systems between Atlantic storms and Australian storms. More than metric vs imperial.

An Australian tropical cyclone Category Five>107 kt.
An Atlantic Category 5 is max sustained wind speed of 137kts.
Hi Paul, I didn't know that.

I just looked up recorded top speeds.

Yasi was 250km/hr
Dorian was 295km/hr

So yep seems to be a difference.
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Old 05-09-2019, 01:42   #47
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Re: Hurricane Measures

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Originally Posted by Paul L View Post
There's a fair amount of difference in the Category rating systems between Atlantic storms and Australian storms. More than metric vs imperial.
An Australian tropical cyclone Category Five >107 kt.
An Atlantic Category 5 is max sustained wind speed of 137kts.
The definition of sustained winds, recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and used by most weather agencies, is that of a 10-minute average at a height of 10 m (33 ft).
However, the SaffirĖSimpson Hurricane Scale is based on wind speed measurements averaged over a 1-minute period, at 10 m (33 ft) above the surface.
The scale used by RSMC New Delhi applies a 3-minute averaging period.
The Australian scale is based on both 3-second wind gusts and maximum sustained winds averaged over a 10-minute interval.
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Old 05-09-2019, 02:02   #48
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Re: Hurricane Measures

The path of incoming huricanes is usually pedicted with reasonable accuracy days before it lands on your spot.
You usually have the option of sailing away from its predicted path.
A friend of mine was moored in St Martin last year when Irma was announced
The day before it stroke, they sailed off southward for 24 hours, then turned back and arrived in devastated St Martin after the blow .
During these 48 hours, they experienced no more than 20kts of wind , apart from local squalls, and caught 4 mahi-mahi.
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Old 05-09-2019, 02:46   #49
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Re: Hurricane Measures

For a 2-day forecast, the hurricane track "cone of uncertainty" is 8% smaller in 2019 than it was last year. It's also 26% smaller than 5 years ago, 39% smaller than a decade ago, and less than half the size of 15 years ago.
It was first developed by the U.S. National Hurricane Center in 2001, and the agency began using it publicly in 2003.
The cone represents the probable track of the centre of a hurricane, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc).
The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors, over a five-year sample, fall within the circle.
Even if the forecast track is accurate, and the centre of storm remains within the cone of uncertainty, impacts can be experienced well outside of the cone. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and even post-tropical storms can be large systems, and the cone does not take into account the size of the storm.



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Old 05-09-2019, 03:26   #50
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Re: Hurricane Measures

Those that think they can sail out of the expected range of a hurricane should be careful about extending that knowledge beyond the Carib and US East Coast. Cyclones in many other places in the world along with cyclone path predictions are far more fickle.

Even for hurricanes I just can't see betting on going to sea after the path is pointing toward your direction. Wasn't there a large square rigger lost while betting on this from Maine to Cape Hatteras during Sandy?
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Old 05-09-2019, 04:46   #51
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Re: Hurricane Measures

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Of course itís only beginning of Sept, peak season isnít for another week or so, we still have time for round two.
I hope not, but itís not impossible, Iím not putting sails back on etc not for at least another month anyway.
The thing I always come back to with hurricanes is how they turn your life from perfect to absolute crap, immediately.

I think about all of the people in the northern Bahamas, who were walking around a week ago, with no clue that their lives were about to be destroyed and changed forever.

And, then I think, we could be in the same boat a week or two from now.
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Old 05-09-2019, 11:13   #52
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Hurricane Measures

Running from a Hurricane in a 30 kt Navy ship is an entirely different thing than doing so in my 6 kt sailboat.
So you say, but my boat is a 10kt boat, but is it punching into 9í waves?

Can you imagine being out to sea, maybe with your Wife or Family and realizing you goofed, and were going to be run down by a Hurricane?
People say Iím foolish by riding out a near miss in a Marina with a car in the parking lot and both I-95 and I-10 just minutes away.

Whatís the backup plan for being out to sea and fixing to be run down by a Hurricane?
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Old 05-09-2019, 11:28   #53
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Re: Hurricane Measures

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The path of incoming huricanes is usually pedicted with reasonable accuracy days before it lands on your spot.
You usually have the option of sailing away from its predicted path.
Attempting to sail away from an approaching hurricane is almost never an option.

Usually they are so big and unpredictable that it's a total roll of the dice as to whether you will survive or not

Hurricane Ivan was a good example as it took up most of the Gulf of Mexico and much of the Southeastern US. It was a Cat 5 but as it hit us in Pensacola it dropped a bit to a Cat 3/4

It made the run from South of Cuba to Pensacola in just 3 days

We were out of power for two weeks and the area was totally devastated some parts for years. There was a curfew also and folks had to be off the streets by 4 pm until maybe 8 am.
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Old 09-09-2019, 07:48   #54
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Re: Hurricane Measures

If I were in the Caribbean and had the time I would go to Curacao which hasn't seen a hurricane since 1836. On your graphic, I like that blue, track free area off the coast of Venezuela except that Venezuela is a basket case and probably not safe to be anywhere near it.
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Old 09-09-2019, 08:00   #55
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Re: Hurricane Measures

You move the boat - as far in advance as you can. Get away from the eye. We were recently in Southport NC when we learned the eye of Dorian was headed right to us. We exited quickly and went somewhere we could tie down more secure with less threat of high winds and surge.



Then, you still tie everything down really well. Remove anything that may become a projectile.



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Old 09-09-2019, 08:24   #56
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Re: Hurricane Measures

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You move the boat - as far in advance as you can. Get away from the eye. We were recently in Southport NC when we learned the eye of Dorian was headed right to us. We exited quickly and went somewhere we could tie down more secure with less threat of high winds and surge.



Then, you still tie everything down really well. Remove anything that may become a projectile.



Watch our videos here.



https://www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...gGPNX4Xmr-oNDU
That's good and luckily you were still on the "good" side of a weakening Cat 1/2 hurricane

When a hurricane of say near Cat 3/4 strength or higher comes in, it's a whole different ball game

In some cases, there's not a whole lot you can do if you are going to get a surge of 14' on up except to get as far away as possible (if you can with the boat)

That's when the floating docks start to go over their pilings at many marinas

I was certainly happy with our 61 knot tropical storm winds and 5-7 ft surge
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Old 09-09-2019, 12:22   #57
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Re: Hurricane Measures

To me, this is a fascinating topic of discussion.

The recent hurricanes have me wondering about several things...

For example, would it be possible to survive a hurricane if you happened to be out sailing on the ocean, and somehow you were oblivious to the fact that a hurricane was coming at you? Let's say it was "merely" a category 2 or 3 storm... I can't imagine the horror.
This would be the exact scenario for sailboats back before there were somewhat reliable weather forecasts.

Has anyone ever survived a category 4 or 5 while out at sea? I'd imagine that it would be near certain death. Odds are probably better going over Niagara Falls in a barrel.
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Old 09-09-2019, 12:43   #58
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Re: Hurricane Measures

Greetings and welcome aboard the CF, Samurai.

Hurricanes can be survivable, at sea. And, you're right - it would be horrible.
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Old 09-09-2019, 14:25   #59
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Re: Hurricane Measures

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To me, this is a fascinating topic of discussion.

The recent hurricanes have me wondering about several things...

For example, would it be possible to survive a hurricane if you happened to be out sailing on the ocean, and somehow you were oblivious to the fact that a hurricane was coming at you? Let's say it was "merely" a category 2 or 3 storm... I can't imagine the horror.
This would be the exact scenario for sailboats back before there were somewhat reliable weather forecasts.

Has anyone ever survived a category 4 or 5 while out at sea? I'd imagine that it would be near certain death. Odds are probably better going over Niagara Falls in a barrel.
I think many believe a hurricane has constant winds up into the range of the category but it's not like that most of the time

There are lots of holes in the wind making it total freak show of back and forth, strong and lighter plus tornadoes

At sea, you'd have the tremendous waves on top of that
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Old 09-09-2019, 15:11   #60
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Re: Hurricane Measures

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Hurricanes can be survivable, at sea. And, you're right - it would be horrible.
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