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Old 09-11-2019, 12:30   #406
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

Fred,
Hopefully that recycling scheme would work for old, dead FRP boats as well.
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Old 09-11-2019, 12:43   #407
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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I keep going back to it is all too complicated to predict. A lot has to deal with how efficient fight is at moving food around. And in the longer term how they compensate farmers.

In theory the USA and Canada should be relatively secure, both food exporters. If that is not handled well the outcome could be very different.

Places like the Mid East will be a hot mess.

I read a book, Taste of War, looking at WWII from a food perspective. It changed my thinking on risks. Taking its message and looking forward things donít look good for China or India. Itís still sometime in the future . The
Good points! In terms of the U.S., Canada, and other food exporters, I agree in macro terms. It would be interesting to see how that plays out in various regions and in the towns and cities.


I think that in a number of SHTF scenarios, there would be a significant variation between regions and municipalities. The time of year would also make a difference. Many regions and municipalities would be much harder hit during a winter.
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Old 09-11-2019, 12:49   #408
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Fred,
Hopefully that recycling scheme would work for old, dead FRP boats as well.
Well, that brings to mind two interesting points, both along the lines of reducing our consumption (On the way to becoming more green and reducing the likelihood of a SHTF moment).

1. In my opinion there should be no old, dead FRP boats. When you consider to total human endeavor required to build a boat then we just throw it away, to me is absolutely wasteful and sinful. There must be a business case for re-using old boats instead of discarding them. Maybe making the new ones more expensive would help that business case (see next point).

2. My view is that anyone manufacturing a product should be required to post the plan for it's eventual end of life processing and put up the money to accomplish that. I manufacture something, be it a turbine blade, a mobile phone, an automobile, a boat, a PET plastic bottle, I need to figure out how it will be taken care of and put aside the money to do it. Say a turbine blade: If I have put aside $5000 for it's disposal, and a guy comes to me and says he'll do it for me, I give him the money. New business! My money set aside needs to include the cost of paying somebody to bring it back to me. Another New Business. Why should corporations be allowed to make products which use the planet's resources and then are just disposed of in landfills at taxpayer expense. Much better to reuse existing goods and materials. Send the suggestion to Bernie and Liz.
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Old 09-11-2019, 12:49   #409
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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small to micro scale is the only way that solar and wind actually work good .
PV and wind scales up to "medium" reasonably well. Once storage technology improves, watch out.

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The whole cradle to grave bit has been hidden by the greenies not debunked.
[ ]
This is but one example of that problem that needs to be addressed.
https://www.americanexperiment.org/2...report-decide/
That's site's biased. They just show you a photo of end-of-life blades, but no numbers, no analysis or comparison with the whole life cycle costs of fossil fuel. Can a coal-burning generator be recycled as easily? Pound per watt, which leaves more waste at end of life? Ever see a giant open-pit coal mine? Who will fill that sucker in?

The article mentions that "The components are made of a fiberglass material that is one of the most inert, non-toxic materials accepted at CRL", yet the writer can't imagine that this inert solid could be shredded or ground up and used in concrete, roads, engineered structural material, etc? Note that they haven't buried them...
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Old 09-11-2019, 12:51   #410
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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small to micro scale is the only way that solar and wind actually work good .
The whole cradle to grave bit has been hidden by the greenies not debunked.
This is but one example of that problem that needs to be addressed.
https://www.americanexperiment.org/2...report-decide/
If you really need it in sure you can find many more examples if you actually want to know the real world facts.
And you should see what a real hail storm can do to a grid type solar farm in about 10 seconds.
From the article posted "wind farms repurpose and recycle 90 percent of the materials in a wind turbine unit." and "Each turbine blade will need between 30 and 44.8 cubic yards of landfill space" So first off, if you're worried about 90 cubic yards of fiberglass then there are a few thousand folks here to criticize over something that can power 3,000 typical households for 25 years, me included, given that fiberglass boats are kind of a thing. And really that's exactly my point, 90 cubic yards of pretty much completely inert fiberglass as waste isn't nothing but it is far, far, far less than the damage done by an equivalent fossil fuel plant. If you want to debunk that argument you have to actually compare the 2, not just look at an effectively meaningless number in isolation and without any context, which the amount of landfill space for a turbine blade certainly is. If you actually have a factual comparison of the cradle to grave waste stream of a coal plant versus a wind or solar farm which produces equivalent lifetime MWH (note that I also hate the disingenuous use of apples to apples nameplate comparisons when MWH is what actually matters) including the mountaintop removal for the coal, the equipment used to mine it, the fuel to mine and transport it, the fuel and waste to make the stuff used to mine and transport it, the coal ash, the medical costs of those impacted by the particulates emitted, the disposal cost of the plant and the resultant brown field......then I'd absolutely love to see it! No one is asserting that renewables are waste free, however it is absurd to argue that they're worse than the alternatives especially the alternative of coal!
There are 300 GW, that's 300,000,000 Kw of solar installed worldwide. That's literally millions of installations and tens of thousands of large solar farms. Hail storms aren't a major issue for them, as evidenced by the fact that insurance for that is readily available from private insurers at low cost, in fact that insurance is one of many costs baked into the per MWH cost which again is lower than any new generation build in many parts of the world. You should also see what a hailstorm does to airplanes at an airport, greenhouses, new cars in a car lot.....heck the kind of storm that would damage a solar farm would damage many things of value but fortunately those kind of hail storms are relatively rare over any specific point on Earth and we don't use their existence as a reason not to park airplanes at airports or cars in parking lots or anything else for that matter, so it's a bit of an odd argument to make against solar farms, especially given what a non-issue it is in reality.

Again the world has really changed radically just in the few years I've worked in this industry. It's really worth researching again with an open mind and a deep dive into to how grids actually work as well as how LMP and capacity markets work is essential before you can even start to be able to answer the question of if renewables work at grid scale. There are issues to overcome, but these aren't really among them. I'd love to have discussions about real things like ensuing the proper incentive structures in a location marginal pricing model when you have zero or near zero marginal cost generation in the stack or capacity market design instead of hashing over stuff that just really isn't an issue any more among those of us who are actually making a living in the power industry.
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Old 09-11-2019, 12:52   #411
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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In the United States and Europe there are efforts to develop recycling for the fiberglass blades. In the US large scale, commercial, recycling plants are under construction and expect to be in full operation in the next 12 months.
I would really be interested to see what they come up with to field in the next year that is actually both economically and environmentally tenable.
Personally I feel that instead of putting all of my money into solar and wind they spend it on upgrading the infrastructure and SMR technology.
With much of the current design systems they could actually directly replace the coal fired systems with SMR on site saving millions on construction of new infrastructure .
Thereby saving money and reducing emissions in one fell swoop.
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Old 09-11-2019, 13:04   #412
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Well, that brings to mind two interesting points, both along the lines of reducing our consumption (On the way to becoming more green and reducing the likelihood of a SHTF moment).

. Much better to reuse existing goods and materials. Send the suggestion to Bernie and Liz.
first off the switch to a " greener " world will not forestall or even mitigate an actual SHTF situation . ( climate change wether temperatures up or down ) is not a shtf situation it is a slow moving set that can and has historically been mitigated quite well by humans.

As to suggestions for reusing items why send the ideas to people that have no control over the possible implementation.
Better to address it to the people that are and will be for the next several years actually be able to implement it.
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Old 09-11-2019, 13:24   #413
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

All of the comments about being sustainable in terms of carbon, population, and other situations are interesting but not really applicable to a SHTF scenario. A SHTF scenario implies a sudden (could be within a few hours or a few weeks if an epidemic/pandemic) event or combination of events. The concept of a change in climate due to the aforementioned items is not a sudden event or a SHTF scenario.

Again, many of the points and counter points are good and interesting, but not really relevant to this discussion.

Getting back to the subject of a SHTF scenario, I haven't noticed any discussion of the different scenarios and possible variations in responses to them.

What are the possible SHTF scenarios? Below I've listed a few. What have I missed?
Epidemic/pandemic
Volcano or supervolcano (remember, a SHTF scenario can be global or regional, or even local
Region wide/global AND extended loss of the power grid
Storm/significant earthquake causing significant and extended loss of infrastructure/services
Asteroid/comet impact (I'm not talking about one large enough to cause an extinction event. Rather one that requires one to move some distance. Similar to a significant volcano.
Tsunami of significant size
Conflict (civil war, conflict between nations, civil unrest, etc.)
?

How does one respond to these? Obviously the first step is to be prepared. The second step is to get out of Dodge, but how exactly does one do this? If you are alone that is one thing, but what if you are bringing people with you? Who are you bringing and how will you get them to the boat? How will they know to meet you? How will you know when it is time to go?

Let's take the loss of power example. At what point will you determine it is time to go? Clearly this will vary depending upon where one lives. Here in NYC as in many large urban or suburban areas, we lost power in 2003 and during hurricane Sandy. The first one was a big party since it lasted less than 24 hours. The second one was more of an issue since is lasted, depending upon your location, from just under a week to a month or much more.

Once you are gone, where will you go and how will you travel? Will you stay coastal and try to find another area that allows for survival and prospering? Will you go offshore to a very distant location? How long can you travel without the need to make contact with others or go ashore?

I think you can see where I am going with this. It is one thing to say that I/we will leave, but actually doing it is something else.
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Old 09-11-2019, 13:53   #414
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Originally Posted by ArmyDaveNY View Post
Getting back to the subject of a SHTF scenario, I haven't noticed any discussion of the different scenarios and possible variations in responses to them.

What are the possible SHTF scenarios? Below I've listed a few. What have I missed?
Epidemic/pandemic
Volcano or supervolcano (remember, a SHTF scenario can be global or regional, or even local
Region wide/global AND extended loss of the power grid
Storm/significant earthquake causing significant and extended loss of infrastructure/services
Asteroid/comet impact (I'm not talking about one large enough to cause an extinction event. Rather one that requires one to move some distance. Similar to a significant volcano.
Tsunami of significant size
Conflict (civil war, conflict between nations, civil unrest, etc.)
?
...


I think you can see where I am going with this. It is one thing to say that I/we will leave, but actually doing it is something else.

Your SHTF list seems to divide itself into two groups:
  1. stuff that is not very likely to happen (pandemic, supervolcano, asteroid, conflict in N.America or Europe)
  2. stuff that's more probable but almost always localized and short-term (grid problem, storm, tsunami, etc)
In both cases, I believe the best approach is not simply by planning your escape or stockpiling guns and MREs, but by building up [A] personal resilience, so that you an your family can be self-sufficient for up to a week or more of crisis, and [B] social/group resilience - ensuring that your community and governments have the ability and resources to respond to a crisis.

If someone is really concerned about all this, get involved. Join local emergency committees, get training in first aid, join the National Guard or a military reserve. Be part of the solution.
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Old 09-11-2019, 13:57   #415
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
PV and wind scales up to "medium" reasonably well. Once storage technology improves, watch out.
Have you looked at the worldwide mineral deposits that must be mined to build PV panels?
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Old 09-11-2019, 14:11   #416
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Originally Posted by senormechanico View Post
Fred,
Hopefully that recycling scheme would work for old, dead FRP boats as well.
Indeed.
Global Fiberglass Solutions (GFS), a Bothell, Wash-based company, has developed, and is scaling up, a plant in Sweetwater, Texas to recycle fiberglass from wind turbine blades and other sources. The facility is currently capable of processing two or three blades per day, or 2-3 tons per hour on an eight-hour shift. At full production, expected by the end of 2019, the plant will be able to process eight tons per hour.
The company also has a facility in Iowa – although no equipment has been installed yet at that location – and staff in Hong Kong and Germany focused on identifying potential partners, feedstock streams and customers.
GFS is also looking beyond wind turbine blades to scrap fiberglass from boats and planes.
https://www.global-fiberglass.com/

“Recycling of fiberglass wind turbine blades into reinforced filaments for use in Additive Manufacturing” ~ Amirmohammad Rahimizadeh et al
https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...59836819306055
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Old 09-11-2019, 14:12   #417
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Have you looked at the worldwide mineral deposits that must be mined to build PV panels?
Not to mention the disaster in the making with the minimg and refining of the lithium for the battery storage systems.
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Old 09-11-2019, 14:13   #418
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Have you looked at the worldwide mineral deposits that must be mined to build PV panels?
Yes. That's the sort of things that LIFETIME assessments analyze.
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Old 09-11-2019, 14:18   #419
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
Your SHTF list seems to divide itself into two groups:
  1. stuff that is not very likely to happen (pandemic, supervolcano, asteroid, conflict in N.America or Europe)
  2. stuff that's more probable but almost always localized and short-term (grid problem, storm, tsunami, etc)
In both cases, I believe the best approach is not simply by planning your escape or stockpiling guns and MREs, but by building up [A] personal resilience, so that you an your family can be self-sufficient for up to a week or more of crisis, and [B] social/group resilience - ensuring that your community and governments have the ability and resources to respond to a crisis.

If someone is really concerned about all this, get involved. Join local emergency committees, get training in first aid, join the National Guard or a military reserve. Be part of the solution.
I agree that as with anything, some things are more likely to occur than others. Preparedness is likely to work with most or all of the scenarios. I think that the planning is going to be the same in most cases regardless of the scenario.

In the scenarios we are talking about there tend to be two schools of thought which are the bug out versus the bug in. There are also those who combine the two schools of thoughts. I know of one person here in NYC who's plan is toe bug out and go to his well stocked farm that is around 100 miles away. In other cases one may need to stay put until things settle down before bugging out.

I also agree that one must be prepared to be self sufficient for a month or so. While working to ensure your community is prepared is very important, I think it is also wise to stock up just in case. I believe in the genius of AND and not the tyranny of OR!
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Old 09-11-2019, 14:26   #420
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Re: Global catastrophe / SHTF "survivable locations"

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Have you looked at the worldwide mineral deposits that must be mined to build PV panels?

Ever seen an open-pit coal mine? Deaths per terawatt of energy? Deaths from air pollution?
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