Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 23-05-2017, 13:56   #1
Marine Service Provider

Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: UK and Central America
Boat: Tucker CA41 Steel 40 foot Ketch
Posts: 400
GFS model is currently only correct 25 percent of the time

If anyone has anyone been looking at the weather in the last few days for the NW Caribbean., they will have noticed that the GFS model tried to forecast a fairly aggressive low developing just north of the Bay Islands, Honduras producing 30 knot E to NE winds to the north of the low, they have since withdrawn from this forecast and fallen in line with ESE winds along with everyone else

Both Chris Parker and Crown weather did not believe it and ignored it in their forecasts

Then I received an email from Crown weather - See extract below

Crown Weather Services
Issued: Monday, May 22, 2017 12:05 pm EDT/11:05 am CDT

Verification statistics reveal that the GFS model currently has a 25 percent verification rate, which means that the model is currently only correct 25 percent of the time.

On the other hand, the European model guidance has a current 75 percent verification rate, which means the European model has more credence and believability right now.

Keep this in mind when looking at the GFS model guidance.

As far as I know, a lot of the internet weather package use the GFS model
i.e Passage Weather, Wind Guru, Windyty, Zygrib to name but a few

Question


If the GFS model is so inaccurate at the moment, can anyone suggest other internet weather products which either

Allow you to select the model

or

Are based on models other than the GFS?
__________________

Triumphant is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-05-2017, 15:29   #2
Registered User

Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,590
Re: GFS model is currently only correct 25 percent of the time

Predictwind offers GFS, ECMWF (European) and two of their own design based on these - PWG and PWE.

Santusky.com - GFS, Icon (German - Max Planck) and GEM (Canadian?)

Interesting piece from the NYT last October. The GFS is behind due to inadequate funding of the US Weather Service. So much so that the US Air Force pays the Brits $100,000 a year to use their software.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/23/m...ther.html?_r=0
__________________

CarlF is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-05-2017, 15:38   #3
Registered User

Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The boat - New Bern, NC, USA; Us - Kingsport, TN, USA
Boat: 1988 Pacific Seacraft 34
Posts: 958
Re: GFS model is currently only correct 25 percent of the time

For us in the Bahamas it is really simple. In the morning we listen and record Chris Parker on 4045 and the same with BASRA on 4003 or WWRC on 7268. Now, here is the extra bit: we send an email to query-reply@saildocs.com with the subject "Spot Request" and with "send spot(NDFD):24.8N,76.2W" (not the quotes) in the body of the email. Five minutes later we have the NDFD forecast for that location in hand. It is a nice low, low bandwith process for HF email.

You might take a look at Available Saildocs Grib Data

Give it a try.
wsmurdoch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-05-2017, 11:15   #4
Marine Service Provider

Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: UK and Central America
Boat: Tucker CA41 Steel 40 foot Ketch
Posts: 400
Re: GFS model is currently only correct 25 percent of the time

Thanks for the replies

re Predictwind , very interesting although when I tried it in W10 Chrome it did not run right told me I needed to Use Chrome!!!! but very nice on Edge


Santusky.co I think there may be a TYPO?

re the Saildocs option, I assume you need to have subscribed to get this service?
Triumphant is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-05-2017, 12:31   #5
Registered User

Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: between the devil and the deep blue sea
Boat: a sailing boat
Posts: 19,124
Re: GFS model is currently only correct 25 percent of the time

Quote:
Originally Posted by Triumphant View Post

Question


If the GFS model is so inaccurate at the moment, can anyone suggest other internet weather products which either

Allow you to select the model

or

Are based on models other than the GFS?
Unisys Weather

Have your pick. I never found ECMWF better than any other model but there are people who claim it is superior. Even if it is actually based on GFS.

Alas, I am not sure EU sages deliver US coverage. They gladly use US gps system but being Europeans they are not willing to do anything that would be of benefit to everybody. They also tend to see Americans as bad, greedy people.

I say, wait for gfs to smooth out the kink, and keep on rolling.

;-)
b.
barnakiel is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 26-05-2017, 15:09   #6
Senior Cruiser
 
StuM's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Port Moresby,Papua New Guinea
Boat: FP Belize Maestro 43 and OPB
Posts: 10,194
Re: GFS model is currently only correct 25 percent of the time

Windy.com offer either GFS 22km or ECMWS 9km.

And it's easy to click between the two and see the difference at your chosen date/time.
StuM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26-05-2017, 15:49   #7
Registered User

Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The boat - New Bern, NC, USA; Us - Kingsport, TN, USA
Boat: 1988 Pacific Seacraft 34
Posts: 958
Re: GFS model is currently only correct 25 percent of the time

Quote:
Originally Posted by Triumphant View Post
re the Saildocs option, I assume you need to have subscribed to get this service?
Saildocs is free. It is part of Sailmail. Home Page They have a catalogue of infomation that they can go and get for you, reduce to an email, and send.
__________________

wsmurdoch is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
current, model

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Gfs vs predictwind, oh and windgusts Snowpetrel Weather | Gear, Reports and Resources 24 20-06-2016 14:07
Batteriser is a $2.50 gadget that extends disposable battery life by 800 percent zboss Electrical: Batteries, Generators & Solar 5 03-06-2015 12:05
What Percent Of Length Lost In 3ply Plait? charliehows Deck hardware: Rigging, Sails & Hoisting 1 10-04-2015 15:15
Opening Cash Offer . Minus 30 Percent of Asking Price ? Multihull Multihull Sailboats 58 24-08-2012 13:12
GFS or NAM ? sgtPluck Navigation 1 24-09-2010 06:33

Advertise Here


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 13:34.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.