Eastern Caribbean storm Author?

[gwoiler]

Hello all. 2 years ago, or so... I read some very good articles by a sailor with 35-40 years experience tracking hurricanes and sailing experience in the eastern Caribbean. He might have written some books, and or magazine articles. I read a series of different articles he wrote about the various islands and one article specifically about dodging hurricanes. He said, the newly formed storms out in the Atlantic, move slowly at first and the storms that might threaten the eastern islands most of the time travel in a straight line before hitting the islands. Then, they can turn any which way. He said by tracking them, and drawing a 5 degree line starting at the storm's beginning, and draw it out above and below along the track in an ever larger cone gives you a safety area when outside of that cone. Does anyone know of this article and author? I thought I book marked it and... no. Thanks.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by gwoiler

... He said by tracking them, and drawing a 5 degree line starting at the storm's beginning, and draw it out above and below along the track in an ever larger cone gives you a safety area when outside of that cone. Does anyone know of this article and author? I thought I book marked it and... no. Thanks.

The NHC Track Forecast Cone [so-called "cone of uncertainty”] represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles, along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc).
The size of each circle is set, so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors, over a 5-year sample, fall within the circle.
One can also examine historical tracks to determine how often the entire 5-day path of a cyclone remains completely within the area of the cone. This is a different perspective that ignores most timing errors. For example, a storm moving very slowly but in the expected direction would still be within the area of the cone, even though the track forecast error could be very large.

Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time, and [therefor] outside the cone roughly 30-40% of the time.

“No more cone? Psychology researchers offer better tool for visualizing hurricane danger”
Researchers in Colorado State University’s Department of Psychology are working on an easily understood, science-backed way to visually represent hurricane danger [1] to the general public [dynamic graphics the researchers have christened “zoomies”]. They contend that the cone of uncertainty creates a false sense of security for people who live outside the boundary of the cone and that there are better ways to signal likely impacts.
More about ➥ https://natsci.source.colostate.edu/...ricane-danger/

'zoomies'


[1] “Dynamic ensemble visualizations to support understanding for uncertain trajectories” ~ by Witt, Jessica K., & Clegg, Benjamin A.
➥ https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?d...7%2Fxap0000370

The Hurakan Project [2], developed by the University of Miami, has an interdisciplinary team looking at a wide variety of concerns with the cone, and innovative ways to make it better.

[2] Hurakan ➥ https://interactive.miami.edu/hurakan/index.html

[GordMay]

FWIW: The hurricane track cone will be refined narrower this season, reflecting improved track forecast scores, over recent years.

Of the 394 official forecasts, issued by the National Hurricane Center, during the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, it had its best year ever, predicting the position of a storm center at 48, 60, and 72 hours in 2021. Overall track forecast errors in the Atlantic basin were close to, or better than, their previous 5-year average.

This year the cone will be up to 6% smaller, in the 12 to 96-hour time intervals, but slightly larger than last year, at 120 hours.

The chart below indicates the average forecast track error for 2022 Atlantic tropical systems, up to 120 hours, from 2016 to 2021.

[Benz]

I just want to see Trump with his Sharpie....

[gwoiler]

Yes, but I am thinking this is for all hurricanes where as I was specifically speaking about hurricanes that only affect the eastern Caribbean. There can be lot of hurricanes that form elsewhere and are much less predictable, and then all are set to averages. Anyway... I was hoping someone was familiar with the articles I can't fine.

[gwoiler]

Originally Posted by Benz

I just want to see Trump with his Sharpie....

What???

[PippaB]

I believe you are thinking of Don Street. If not, someone was probably repeating his advice/theories. He advocated that you draw a line 5 degrees on the north side of the actual track, that approaching the islands hurricanes tend to go north, not south (he says if they go south they will return to their previous track within 48 hours).

I have no idea as to the accuracy of his thoughts, methods, or observations. He did spend a tremendous amount of time sailing in the Caribbean.

They head west, never altering course more than 5 degrees in 24 hours. Any zig to the south usually lasts no more than 48 hours. Since 1851 only twice has the south zig lasted three days.If a hurricane springs up, each day plot a 5-degree cone north on the course from the position of the hurricane. The area of the cone gets smaller as the hurricane approaches.

If you are in the cone 48 hours before the hurricane is to hit your area, pick up the anchor and head south on beam reach or close reach. That will give you enough time to be well south of the hurricane. You will experience manageable winds and big seas. Once the hurricane passes, turn around, head back to your anchorage and examine the destruction you avoided by heading south.

https://www.street-iolaire.com/contact

[MicHughV]

Not sure I understand your question. Islands in the eastern Caribbean get clobbered just as hard by a 'cane as does some place on the mainland.
Considering that most 'canes begin life somewhere off the coast of Africa, a 5% cone can be quite wide by the time you get to the eastern Caribbean.

[gwoiler]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

Not sure I understand your question. Islands in the eastern Caribbean get clobbered just as hard by a 'cane as does some place on the mainland.
Considering that most 'canes begin life somewhere off the coast of Africa, a 5% cone can be quite wide by the time you get to the eastern Caribbean.

Yes they get clobbered, but if you have had time with no rush to sail south out of the way until the storm passed by - then it is a safe place to be... maybe the safest compared to how many hurricanes go up the east coast of the US out of the hurricane zone. I am wanting to sail during hurricane season, and I want a tried and proven method fr staying safe.

[gwoiler]

Originally Posted by PippaB

I believe you are thinking of Don Street. If not, someone was probably repeating his advice/theories. He advocated that you draw a line 5 degrees on the north side of the actual track, that approaching the islands hurricanes tend to go north, not south (he says if they go south they will return to their previous track within 48 hours).

https://www.street-iolaire.com/contact

Thanks! This just might be who I was reading a couple years ago.

[PippaB]

Well, he sailed the Caribbean for decades and literally wrote the book(s) on sailing/cruising in that part of the world.

[gwoiler]

Originally Posted by PippaB

I believe you are thinking of Don Street. If not, someone was probably repeating his advice/theories. He advocated that you draw a line 5 degrees on the north side of the actual track, that approaching the islands hurricanes tend to go north, not south (he says if they go south they will return to their previous track within 48 hours).
https://www.street-iolaire.com/contact

Yes! This is who I was searching for. I tried so many different searches and was surprised I did not bump in to him - like I bumped in to him a couple years ago. thanks again! You have no idea how appreciative I am! thanks. Glenn

[MicHughV]

yes they get clobbered, but if you have had time with no rush to sail south out of the way until the storm passed by - then it is a safe place to be... maybe the safest compared to how many hurricanes go up the east coast of the US out of the hurricane zone. I am wanting to sail during hurricane season, and I want a tried and proven method fr staying safe.

Well, I have spent hurricane season in the islands, but it's still a crapshoot. The NHC will let you know when one is on the way, but that is no guarantee you can get out of the way.

First of all, the " eye" of a hurricane is quite wide...lets use 30 miles as an example, then factor in a 5% wobble...essential this covers quite a long ways that you will be in the potential worse part. Then factor in sea state. etc.....as even 100's of miles from the eye you could experience gale force winds and waves.

And we are only talking about the " Eye" here, but hurricane winds can extend out quite a ways from the eye.

This is not simple dot on a chart you are trying to avoid, it will be a very wide swath of potentially rough weather.

Don Street pretty much operated out of Grenada which is on the very southern end of the Caribbean chain of islands....a bit of the beaten track for most 'canes.

Even if you have the " time" ...consider that many others will also be searching for hurricane safe havens and finding an empty spot will prove to be difficult.

My 2c is that there is no real " safe" haven available. Many yachties and chartering businesses can attest to this.

Do yourself a favor and google hurricane tracks over the past 50 years or so. You will find that pretty much no place can be considered "safe"

Good luck to ya.....

[gwoiler]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

Do yourself a favor and google hurricane tracks over the past 50 years or so. You will find that pretty much no place can be considered "safe"

Good luck to ya.....

I compiled 30 years of hurricane tracks in this short video. Thanks for all you said


https://youtu.be/HltNvVu_CAc

[JPA Cate]

For a book about them, check out Farley Mowat's The Serpent's Coil. I found it a riveting read.

Ann