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Old 25-05-2022, 19:59   #16
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Re: Eastern Caribbean storm Author?

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Old 26-05-2022, 04:42   #17
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Re: Eastern Caribbean storm Author?

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Originally Posted by Don Street
”... I realize that all hurricanes or potential hurricanes approach the Caribbean from the Cape Verde area as long as they stay below 19 north track westwards never altering course more than 5 degrees in 24 hours. With very few exceptions all alterations of course were to the north. If a hurricane took a zig to the south the zig seldom lasted more than 48 hours.

However Irma was different. Irma went to 19 06 N then took a 5 degree south for three days ...”
Don's Log: Tracking Hurricanes https://www.street-iolaire.com/blog/posts/36114

Street’s 5° Northward [Cape Verde] hurricane slant might be more or less accurate, over a short track, in the Eastern Caribbean, since the major steering effect [at that point in it’s travel] are the tropical jet stream [trade winds driving it West], and the [constant] Coriolis force, steering it North.

Steering winds [at higher levels], and the strength & position of the Bermuda High [generally] only begin to effect it’s path later, as the storm approaches North America.

However, the actual path taken by a hurricane can be chaotic, and difficult to predict. One difficulty lies in the fact that the upper level winds, that can steer hurricanes [pressure levels at 500 mb and higher altitudes] are often quite weak in the tropics.
When steering winds are weak, the actual path of a hurricane is determined by the structure of the storm, and the storm's interaction with the environment.
Factors that may contribute to a storms path include: a nearby area of ever so slightly warmer or colder sea temperatures, interactions between the storm and nearby land areas, the relative location and intensity of convection within a storm, or weak and unnoticed disturbances in the upper air wind flow.

Thus, it is not all that uncommon for hurricanes to take erratic paths, and make odd turns that catch weather forecasters, and cruisers, by surprise.
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Old 26-05-2022, 07:58   #18
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Re: Eastern Caribbean storm Author?

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Don's Log: Tracking Hurricanes https://www.street-iolaire.com/blog/posts/36114

Street’s 5° Northward [Cape Verde] hurricane slant might be more or less accurate,

Thank you for that. Street DOES have a lot of data that stretches over many decades.
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Old 26-05-2022, 09:22   #19
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Re: Eastern Caribbean storm Author?

See Don Street's article in current edition of Caribbean Compass. Online
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Old 26-05-2022, 10:06   #20
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Re: Eastern Caribbean storm Author?

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