Budget Be Damned

[WindwardPrinces]

Originally Posted by pt49

And you guys wonder why I buy Bitcoin... the crash is coming guys and your high flying market stocks will drop over 50% in value so fast you won't be able to get rid of them.

It will be like 1929, and much much worse than 2008.

If the market were to crash, I'd rather have real estate and dollars than bitcoin. But diversification is the best answer.

[WindwardPrinces]

Originally Posted by pt49

As a backpacker I sailed over 16,000 miles including a round trip of the Atlantic... on $40 a month... now that's budgeting.

Wow, that's some serious backpacking. I guess it was watertight.

[sailorboy1]

Well today is the last day of the year. Unless the global market completely crashes i’m ending the year better off that i started even with all the money i spent cruising and living for the year. Even though ive pulled back away from as much risk.

Hope everyone else has enjoyed the run.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

Well today is the last day of the year. Unless the global market completely crashes i’m ending the year better off that i started even with all the money i spent cruising and living for the year. Even though ive pulled back away from as much risk.

Hope everyone else has enjoyed the run.

Great, can you tell me where the market will be on Dec 31,2020. That would be very helpful.

[carstenb]

Sailorboy we've sailed for 3.5 years and have about the same situation as you, although our boat repairs have cost us more (we've also sailed over 20.000nm and spent close to 1000 nights on the hook - heavy sailing does wear and tear on the boat.)

Enjoy the life - you can buy a rocking chair and sit on a porch when you get old

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Great, can you tell me where the market will be on Dec 31,2020. That would be very helpful.

Not positive, but am pretty confident that it will still be at 11 Wall Street, New York, NY 10005

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

Not positive, but am pretty confident that it will still be at 11 Wall Street, New York, NY 10005

I think you are right. Is that gonna be next to that bull statue or will it be down the street by the bear statue?

[sailorboy1]

I think the Bull will keep running at a slower pace till about Oct. Then it will Bear up while waiting the presidential elections. After that it's a crap shoot.

Meanwhile 2019 was a free year of cruising In fact I've been cruising for 39.5 months and am only down about $3000 from the start Sure glad I didn't spend that 39.5 months working!!!!!!!

[thomm225]

That seems sort of sad in a way.

You are truly missing the journey of life parked along the ICW......

[Tx J]

Like many of y'all seem to be indicating, I've tended to be a cautiously hedging pessimist the more heated this 'boom' has appeared to be (haven't read the whole thread). I've seen a few 'movies' like this one before, maybe you remember the recent last one about a decade ago. The curtain might be going up... then again, IDGAS, just drifting on autopilot.

Some financial analysts are advising that a US Federal Reserve bailout of our oh-so-trustworthy banking and investment Titanic has already begun, on 17 September.
Link and some quotes below for your amusement. I have no idea how valid it is, but a few years ago I had a seven-figure buyout which I've largely kept in very calm waters, willingly giving up a lot of what I perceive as undue risks, and waiting...

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/...es-the-losers/

[bolding mine]
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 23, 2019 ~
" The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average set new record highs every single day last week. This occurred despite the Federal Reserve justifying its unprecedented hundreds of billions of dollars each week in cheap loans to Wall Street’s trading houses as necessary to stem a “liquidity” crisis.
You can’t have a liquidity crisis when the stock market is setting record highs for an entire week. Those two things just don’t correlate.
The Fed, through its money spigot, the New York Fed, began sluicing these funds to Wall Street on September 17, the day the overnight borrowing rate in the repurchase agreement (repo) loan market spiked from 2 percent to 10 percent. This was the first such intervention by the Fed since the financial crisis. The repo market is where banks, hedge funds and money market funds loan each other money overnight on the basis of good collateral like U.S. Treasury securities.
An unprecedented spike to 10 percent in the repo market is a harbinger that one or more of the borrowers in this market is in trouble and lenders don’t want the exposure so they are backing away from lending. This is how free markets are supposed to work. They are supposed to be allowed to send pivotal warning signs from time to time through an efficient pricing mechanism.
But instead of allowing the free market and efficient pricing components to function, the Fed cut this short and drew a dark curtain around this part of the market by flooding cheap, electronically-created money to Wall Street’s trading houses.
On December 12, the New York Fed upped the ante. It announced that over the next month it would shower the trading houses (primary dealers) on Wall Street with a cumulative total of $2.93 trillion in short-term loans.
Now Wall Street has made it clear what the cheap money is being used for. It’s not being loaned out to help the general economy – it’s being used to push the stock market to record highs each day.
...
U.S. taxpayers are also the big losers. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is ballooning again as a result of these repo loans and is now back over $4 trillion. If its balance sheet is this big now, what’s going to happen if Wall Street blows itself up again and the Fed has to intervene as a legitimate lender of last resort. Are we looking at an unthinkable $8 trillion balance sheet at the Fed? U.S. taxpayers are ultimately on the hook for any losses at their central bank.
U.S. investors and U.S. citizens are also the big losers. A euphoric stock market undermines the case in Congress for making the critically-needed reforms of Wall Street’s mega banks before they blow themselves up again with derivatives.
And, finally, the next generation and their children are the ultimate biggest losers of all. ..."

FWIW:
“The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It”:
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current

Urk...

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Ferret it away to what?

The problem is that if someone had pulled their money out of investments two months or two years ago, they'd have likely missed out on some significant appreciation in value. Studies consistently show that market timing doesn't generally work.

Ferret it away doesn’t mean pull it out of investments, what it means is do not decide the market is doing so well that my lifestyle hasn’t cost much, so it’s time to increase my lifestyle and spend all that excess unplanned on money.
Which if you go back to the beginning of this thread is what was being said

[pt49]

There massive rumors that Deutsche Bank may be the "Lehman Bros" that the Fed is currently trying to save.
Deutsche Bank apparently holds about $45 trillion in derivatives... much of which would be through US Insurance companies.

[pt49]

If I held my wealth in the Stock Market (which I don't) I would seriously be looking at liquidating at least 50% and holding some Cash while buying Gold and a little Bitcoin.

[Tx J]

Originally Posted by pt49

There massive rumors that Deutsche Bank may be the "Lehman Bros" that the Fed is currently trying to save.
Deutsche Bank apparently holds about $45 trillion in derivatives... much of which could be through US Insurance companies.

Deutsche Bank, eh?
Just a coinkydink that they're also known as the 'visible' "lender of last resort" of a certain somebody... (insofar as the full documentation is still suppressed/hidden). Now let's guess who the 'invisible lolr' ones are... $45 trillion, just another coinkydink.

[Sonny36]

Originally Posted by Tx J

Like many of y'all seem to be indicating, I've tended to be a cautiously hedging pessimist the more heated this 'boom' has appeared to be (haven't read the whole thread). I've seen a few 'movies' like this one before, maybe you remember the recent last one about a decade ago. The curtain might be going up... then again, IDGAS, just drifting on autopilot.

Some financial analysts are advising that a US Federal Reserve bailout of our oh-so-trustworthy banking and investment Titanic has already begun, on 17 September.
Link and some quotes below for your amusement. I have no idea how valid it is, but a few years ago I had a seven-figure buyout which I've largely kept in very calm waters, willingly giving up a lot of what I perceive as undue risks, and waiting...

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/...es-the-losers/

[bolding mine]
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 23, 2019 ~
" The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average set new record highs every single day last week. This occurred despite the Federal Reserve justifying its unprecedented hundreds of billions of dollars each week in cheap loans to Wall Street’s trading houses as necessary to stem a “liquidity” crisis.
You can’t have a liquidity crisis when the stock market is setting record highs for an entire week. Those two things just don’t correlate.
The Fed, through its money spigot, the New York Fed, began sluicing these funds to Wall Street on September 17, the day the overnight borrowing rate in the repurchase agreement (repo) loan market spiked from 2 percent to 10 percent. This was the first such intervention by the Fed since the financial crisis. The repo market is where banks, hedge funds and money market funds loan each other money overnight on the basis of good collateral like U.S. Treasury securities.
An unprecedented spike to 10 percent in the repo market is a harbinger that one or more of the borrowers in this market is in trouble and lenders don’t want the exposure so they are backing away from lending. This is how free markets are supposed to work. They are supposed to be allowed to send pivotal warning signs from time to time through an efficient pricing mechanism.
But instead of allowing the free market and efficient pricing components to function, the Fed cut this short and drew a dark curtain around this part of the market by flooding cheap, electronically-created money to Wall Street’s trading houses.
On December 12, the New York Fed upped the ante. It announced that over the next month it would shower the trading houses (primary dealers) on Wall Street with a cumulative total of $2.93 trillion in short-term loans.
Now Wall Street has made it clear what the cheap money is being used for. It’s not being loaned out to help the general economy – it’s being used to push the stock market to record highs each day.
...
U.S. taxpayers are also the big losers. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is ballooning again as a result of these repo loans and is now back over $4 trillion. If its balance sheet is this big now, what’s going to happen if Wall Street blows itself up again and the Fed has to intervene as a legitimate lender of last resort. Are we looking at an unthinkable $8 trillion balance sheet at the Fed? U.S. taxpayers are ultimately on the hook for any losses at their central bank.
U.S. investors and U.S. citizens are also the big losers. A euphoric stock market undermines the case in Congress for making the critically-needed reforms of Wall Street’s mega banks before they blow themselves up again with derivatives.
And, finally, the next generation and their children are the ultimate biggest losers of all. ..."

FWIW:
“The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It”:
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current

Urk...

If Hillary were president, would we be in this situation, now?