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Old 28-11-2019, 13:48   #466
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Re: Budget Be Damned

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I think there is a middle ground between "sure fire" insider trading and a roulette even-bet. Information (non insider) can change your odds and its all out there- none of it rocket science. The catch is it takes a looong time to properly examine a single equity, and personally I'd rather spend time on brightwork.

Such information is not always possessed by just institutions. 'Couple years back in the course of my technology job, I stumbled across a new product from an old company called AMD that was much cheaper and better than that of the long time king of the industry, Intel. With intimate understanding of the technology implications, (but thin financial understanding) I scooped up shares. That play has tripled, and I would say that it was a better play than a few chips on black.

Yes, I don't disagree. Insider trading is an extreme case, but INFORMATION is the name of the game. Whoever has more correct information, and interprets it correctly and relevant, wins. But actionable information is rarely what you can read in the WSJ, which is why "stock pickers" typically lose out compared to the index -- they have less information than they think they do.
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Old 28-11-2019, 13:54   #467
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Re: Budget Be Damned

Pretty much none of "us" has any useful info early enough to make a difference, that why we invest in balanced funds or sector funds managed by people that have access to info. Anything in the WSJ isn't info, that's history!
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Old 28-11-2019, 13:54   #468
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Re: Budget Be Damned

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Yet reallocating an equity portfolio during a sustained bull market is often one of the more difficult things for individual investors to do. And understandably so -- who wants to throw cold water on the party? . . .

Natch -- and greed is a HUGE motivator -- I've made X money in the last year, I'll leave the money on the table and make X again this year. Human nature. And since it is very difficult to predict the timing of the downturn, it is very difficult to know when taking money off the table means leaving money ON the table.


But just take some of your profit out. Not all of it, if you don't see a crash just ahead.


Diversity is always a good thing. Another human impulse which should be resisted is to de-diversify into an asset which happens to have performed well over some particular period. Remember, "Past Performance is No Guaranty of Future Results!" Being a good investor takes a cool head and strong nerves. Another relevant aphorism: "Pigs Get Fat; Hogs Get Slaughtered"
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Old 28-11-2019, 13:55   #469
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Re: Budget Be Damned

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. . . Anything in the WSJ isn't info, that's history!

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Old 20-12-2019, 11:53   #470
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Re: Budget Be Damned

11 days to go in 2019 if the market holds out cruising 2019 will have been basically free for me. Because its been so good i am reducing risk because i dont need to do it. But i i think the run has lots of life still in it.
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Old 20-12-2019, 13:26   #471
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Re: Budget Be Damned

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...But i i think the run has lots of life still in it.
It sure does... $40 to $80 billion a month.
As long as the FED keeps feeding the Repo market, you can keep sailing for free... and let your kids and grandkids pay the piper.
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Old 20-12-2019, 13:32   #472
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Re: Budget Be Damned

Im sure i read the same thing 30 years ago
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Old 20-12-2019, 13:48   #473
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Re: Budget Be Damned

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11 days to go in 2019 if the market holds out cruising 2019 will have been basically free for me. Because its been so good i am reducing risk because i dont need to do it. But i i think the run has lots of life still in it.
It will, the fed has/is fire hoseing liquidity, Trumps done the 1st stage of the (non)trade deal , everything's rosy, the underlining companies arent doing anything special , but hey that's irrelevant.
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Old 20-12-2019, 13:49   #474
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Re: Budget Be Damned

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Im sure i read the same thing 30 years ago
Not like this you didnt.
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Old 20-12-2019, 16:31   #475
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Re: Budget Be Damned

The QE after 2008 staved off the inevitable cleansing that's needed, that is a given, however the FED now realizes that they are incapable of unwinding what they have done.
Their answer is... zero and sub-zero interest rates, more QE, and screw the middle class.

Next comes "Hyperinflation" a la Zimbabwe, Venezuela.

When the crash comes, Sailorboy may be between ports with no internet access... BOOM!!

The ONLY safe place to have your savings when hyper-inflation hits is in hard assets like gold, silver, diamonds (maybe) and non-correlated assets like Bitcoin.
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Old 20-12-2019, 16:35   #476
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Re: Budget Be Damned

Ah, thats better
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Old 20-12-2019, 16:36   #477
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Re: Budget Be Damned

... but 99% of investors steer clear of "safe" asset classes like precious metals, Crypto-currencies, fine art, etc, for the simple reason that they don't produce any income.
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Old 20-12-2019, 16:38   #478
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Re: Budget Be Damned

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Ah, thats better
And. Since you are only on this earth for a short time..enjoy every minute
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Old 20-12-2019, 16:39   #479
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Re: Budget Be Damned

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The QE after 2008 staved off the inevitable cleansing that's needed, that is a given, however the FED now realizes that they are incapable of unwinding what they have done.
Their answer is... zero and sub-zero interest rates, more QE, and screw the middle class.

Next comes "Hyperinflation" a la Zimbabwe, Venezuala.

When the crash comes, Sailorboy may be between ports with no internet access... BOOM!!

The ONLY safe place to have your savings when hyper-inflation hits is in hard assets like gold, silver, diamonds (maybe) and non-correlated assets like Bitcoin.
Although I tend to agree with all of what you said and position myself based on this thinking I'm not sure anyone can say Hyperinflation is coming, we just dont know that, we aren't in a situation that we've seen before, therefore we dont know how it will end.

Asset prices may go up for many more years and this includes the stockmarkets, my best guess is they probably will, the fed and other central banks will do everything possible to keep markets ,housing etc inflating, I dont believe this is good, and I do think it will end badly BUT no one including me really knows what's going to happen.
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Old 20-12-2019, 16:40   #480
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Re: Budget Be Damned

Sorry, I meant, most of what you said.
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