Budget Be Damned

[thomm225]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Sucking in time and enjoying it for what it is, is a far better way of living than needing to fit the never ending more into ones life that we are so programmed to do.

I built ,owned and ran two fitness centers, wrote Anthony Robins type articles and generally made people feel guilty about not achieving more in every available minute, typical type A western must achieve crap. I'm not that guy these days, nothing better than easing into ones day and just enjoying doing so.....guess what? I'm happier this way.

So nope, definitely not to young to enjoy a slow start to the day.

Okay.

At least you found what works for you.

I hoping I'll be able to chill out a bit like that when I reach 70 or so then maybe I can hang out at anchor for more than a day or two when I do start cruising full time......

[sailorboy1]

Meanwhile on subject, the market has been GOOD

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

Meanwhile on subject, the market has been GOOD

Don’t jinx it

[thomm225]

It's important though not to fall into the money trap of doing a lot of nothing (except buying stuff and vacationing) which can really destroy your health especially if you are over 50.

As long as you continue to sail long distances or cycle/run a few times a week plus working out on weights and staying on a proper diet that a good income can provide you pretty much have it made.

You could even get your weight down to where it was when you were 30 since you are not chained to a 9-5 job, but if you are not doing these things, the extra cash can be a trap not to mention the journey of life you are missing

[pt49]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

Meanwhile on subject, the market has been GOOD

Thanks to the Fed's printing press.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by pt49

Thanks to the Fed's printing press.

Think maybe China caving on the trade thing may have had something to do with it?

[pt49]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Think maybe China caving on the trade thing may have had something to do with it?

Markets rise because of increased investment = more MONEY coming from somewhere.
Its either coming out of mattresses, from overseas, other sectors (bonds for instance) or it's newly printed... probably a combination of all, but mostly newly printed in my opinion.

[Pelagic]

These sayings all point to one solution:
If you want to Feel:
Young, hang out with Old people
Thin, hang out with Fat people
Rich, hang out with ??? people

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Exile

Yes, I remember eBay becoming quite the flea market for years following the housing crash. And yes, reallocating into a higher % of cash following a run-up in equity markets is prudent for many reasons, albeit at a cost if the markets continue to climb. But then any good stock broker will tell you how 'genius' hindsight is, right?

It's probably more psychological than anything else, but I'm sorta drawn to the notion of having something to show for what would otherwise be mere paper gains when the inevitable downturn comes. Cash certainly provides the most flexibility.

Taking money off the table when the markets are way up is a really good idea. Diversification is a really good idea, especially in uncertain times, and most times are uncertain in one way or another.


Cash is good IF you expect an asset price crash and see a lack of liquidity and buying opportunities ahead. I don't personally see that right now. We are seeing another round of asset price inflation which may or may not be a harbinger of general inflation which is a killer to those holding cash. QE must lead to inflation sooner or later and that is what I am worried about. Record low unemployment and wage increases is the classical early warning of inflation.



I struggled with that quite a bit and finally decided to stop my real estate portfolio liquidation midstream, and to refinance the remaining assets with cheap fixed rate debt. That is my hedge against inflation -- inflation which kills people with cash, but on the contrary creates windfalls. sometimes huge windfalls, to people with assets mortgaged with fixed rate debt. I got outbid and failed to buy the company I was negotiating for so anyway I wouldn't have anything productive to put the money back into, and I didn't want to be holding cash.



I have a certain amount of money in the markets, but I would reduce exposure to equities at this point if I had a significant amount of my net worth tied up in them, which I don't.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by pt49

Markets rise because of increased investment = more MONEY coming from somewhere.
Its either coming out of mattresses, from overseas, other sectors (bonds for instance) or it's newly printed... probably a combination of all, but mostly newly printed in my opinion.

You forgot reinvested profits. But most importantly you left out the motion of money, not necessarily increased in supply -- the VELOCITY of money.



Also, markets move on the MARGIN. Volume is not always required for prices to move. So relatively small amounts of investment may move the market a long way in one direction or another.


The velocity of money is the terrifying thing, because the world economy has absorbed an unprecedented quantity of newly created money through QE since 2008. QE was done to prevent a deflationary death-spiral and worldwide depression, and it succeeded brilliantly. But we may have to pay the piper suddenly, and out of all proportion to the amount of new money being created TODAY. We've got 10 years of newly created money just waiting to burst into action if the velocity of money ever normalizes -- if all that money ever makes its way out of the clutches of big bank treasuries and gets back into the hands of people buying stuff. It's scary.





https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Trimaran Ken

Unless you are dumb enough to believe that they will always be rising.

Ken
===

That's where sailor boy's comments can be dangerous for people without a lot of understanding of investing and looking for confirmation for following his plan.

Works great if you start at the beginning of a 12yr bull market.
Hit a major downturn a year or two in without a good plan to address it...

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by pt49

Only any good if you are gambling on the markets.

Gambling typically assumes the odds favor the house...I'll gamble every day when the odds heavily favor the player.

[pt49]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Gambling typically assumes the odds favor the house...I'll gamble every day when the odds heavily favor the player.

= sell when the average Joe is mortgaging his house to buy shares, and buy when the average Joe is jumping off high buildings in Wall St.

... in my opinion... we are within 3 or 4 months of the average Joe mortgaging his house to by shares/stocks.

[sailorboy1]

Some of you are so depressing it must be a sad life. Sorry if good times just make you focus on potential bad times. Me, I'm going to keep riding the good times with my eyes wide open with a happy feeling and not become all worried about some make believe future bad time to spoil my NOW!

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

Some of you are so depressing it must be a sad life. Sorry if good times just make you focus on potential bad times. Me, I'm going to keep riding the good times with my eyes wide open with a happy feeling and not become all worried about some make believe future bad time to spoil my NOW!

Well the future bad times are not "make believe". They always come, and they will come again, like they have for all of human history.


It's wise to take this into consideration. The classical, kind of paradigmatic investor mistake, is to assume that current trends can be extended into infinity.


Investing (and saving) is all about preparing for the future; it's not about "my NOW!". Of course you have to strike a balance. A life lived without enjoying "my NOW!" is pathetic and useless (also a classical, kind of paradigmatic life mistake). But a person living all the time in the present without a thought for the future may find himself broke and miserable one day. It's all about balance!