99L

[AA3JY]

Spegetti models for 99L

[GordMay]

Tropical Disturbance Invest Area AL99, potential tropical storm ‘Sara’:
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/f106/three-tropical-waves-developing-289052.html

Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.
Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend.
The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica and portions of Haiti during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: 80% [high].
* Formation chance through 7 days: 90%.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion: 0605 UTC Wed Nov 13 2024
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

[AA3JY]

Projected path..

[GordMay]

Invest AL99 has been renamed Potential Tropical Storm nineteen [PTC19]*.
PTC19* is expected to be named “SARA” later this week, & could become a hurricane, before coming north next week.

An invest [short for “investigation”] is a naming convention, used by the National Hurricane Center [NHC, to identify features they are monitoring for potential future development into a tropical depression, or storm. However, if the system has been called an invest does not guarantee development into a tropical depression or storm.
* Potential Tropical Storm [PTC] Since 2017, NHC has had the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances, that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas, within 48 hours.
PTC-NINETEEN Spaghetti Models
➥ https://www.cyclocane.com/ptc-ninete...ghetti-models/

UWM Early Cycle Spaghetti Models for PTC-NINETEEN showing potential paths

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by GordMay

...
An invest [short for “investigation”] is a naming convention, used by the National Hurricane Center [NHC, to identify features they are monitoring for potential future development into a tropical depression, or storm. However, if the system has been called an invest does not guarantee development into a tropical depression or storm.
* Potential Tropical Storm [PTC] Since 2017, NHC has had the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances, that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas, within 48 hours...

See also “Weather Words: Weather Glossaries”
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3949732

[GordMay]

Invest AL99 ➛ Potential Tropical Storm Nineteen [PTC19] ➛ is now Tropical Storm “SARA”

Tropical Storm “Sara” Advisory #4A [1:00 PM EST Thu. Nov. 14]
LOCATION: 15.7°N x 82.9°W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH [65 KM/H], with higher gusts
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km) from the centre, mainly in the Northern semicircle.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: West, 265° @ 12 MPH [19 KM/H]
This motion should continue through today, bringing the centre near the coast of eastern Honduras.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 MB [29.50"]

[GordMay]

“SARA” is near the NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS.
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for:
* The entire northern coast of Honduras
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The northern coast of Guatemala from the Honduras/Guatemala
border westward to Puerto Barrios
As of 7:15 AM EST, Fri Nov 15 2024, the government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch, for its coastline, from Placencia northward to Belize City.