I am considering a sail to
Catalina later in the week. I may opt for something shorter like Oside,
Dana Point, Marina Del Rey depending on
forecast and
work schedule but, at this point my
work schedule may allow a 3 - 4 trip.
My experience thus far only goes as far as SD Bay and 3 or so miles off Point Loma in typical
San Diego weather to what I would terms as lesser small craft advisory conditions.
The high pressure this week is
forecast to peak Wednesday. Thursday looks to be a great day on
Catalina per Predict
Wind, so does Friday. Wednesday could afford some
offshore winds with possible ~ beam reach points of sail while heading heading toward Catalina ie. possibly be able to sail vs
motor for some segments where the coastal slopes funnel the winds into the coastal waters.
While I have experience dealing with Santa Ana winds in regarding to flying hot-air balloons for 28 years over So Cal's coastal slopes I don't have any experience in how they manifest
offshore. I am relying on Predict Wind's modeling to show this effect Our typical analysis of the Santa Ana winds for ballooning would generally involve NOAA discussions on the timing of - origin, building and dissipation of the pressure gradient from (for example) Tonapah to
San Diego - the greater the gradient... the stronger the event. NOAA as of yet has not included specifics on the forecast of this weeks event. But, that is where Predict Wind's modeling seems helpful.
Looking at PW's
wind and wave height modeling for the week it indicates a relatively benign event in terms of coastal sailing (do you agree?). In fact, in my limited view it would appear to provide favorable conditions for the trip out to Catalina on Wednesday morning. I do question what the effect of offshore winds has on sea state, ie opposing wind and wave direction = choppy or steep waves on the normal NW - W swell?
What do you think? I may doing this solo on my
Pacific Seacraft 37' with the plan to grab a
mooring ball at Emerald Bay or Little Harbor depending on conditions.