Great Lakes HIGH water levels

[Mike OReilly]

I'm sitting her looking at the very high shoreline of Lake Huron right now, and wondering what things are going to look like come Spring. This is supposed to be the low point in the season, after all. Yet we're at near record-breaking highs everywhere in the Great Lakes basin.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/dash...GLD_HTML5.html

Predictions currently are for all the lakes to be way above the longer term averages, with most Lakes breaking through the all time record highs. I'm no longer sailing these Great Lakes, but this can't be good news for many marinas and other facilities built down along the shores.

Are people making plans for the coming soggy season?

[Mirage35]

Our marina in Kingston spent last summer and much of this winter raising the parking lot (floating docks will follow it up); they also raised the fuel pump and kiosk by about 3 feet because it was out of commission much of last summer. It could be a challenge for places that can't or haven't taken such action because, yes, the forecasts suggest high levels again.

I try to take the optimistic viewpoint: I've been getting into places in the Thousand Islands that I normally wouldn't consider because of draft.

[rslifkin]

My marina on Lake Ontario has been raising some of the lower docks and also replacing some with floating. The higher docks and the edges of the parking lot in some spots start to get wet right around the 249 foot mark, so hopefully we stay below that. Fortunately the newer power infrastructure was ok even at that level.

Last year when we got that high, they were building up docks with cinder blocks and planks to manage.

I've also been taking the optimistic view. High water (as long as it's not marina-disabling high) means more depth in places. I'd like to get into Lake of the Isles for a night in the Thousand Islands this summer, which I can with high water. If we get much less than 2.5 feet above datum, it'll start getting uncomfortably tight or impassable. The shallowest spot going in is charted at about 3 feet and I draw 3'8". Lowest point for me is the props (about 5" below my keel), so less than 5 feet and I start to get very nervous (and less than 6 and I'm stirring a lot of mud).

[CharlzO]

I expect it to be at least what last year was, if not worse. Also on Lake Ontario on the southern shore. Last year, we did have quite a bit of flooding, and it did shorten the season a bit for me. The marina is being proactive with trying to upgrade not only the walls, but the fixed wharf and rebuilding the deck around the guesthouse, in addition to laying new gravel down in the rest of the yard to combat the mud from last year that gave the travel lift fits. Thankfully, we have floating docks, but it's going to be interesting to see how it goes.

[Mike OReilly]

This could be the new normal ... until it changes again.

[Bill O]

Well its better than the alternative of low water.

Can remember growing up extremely low water and it also happened less than a decade ago. Couldn't even get the boats out of the slip it was so low.
Bill O.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Bill O

Well its better than the alternative of low water.

Can remember growing up extremely low water and it also happened less than a decade ago. Couldn't even get the boats out of the slip it was so low.
Bill O.

Yes, the Lakes went through a dry spell about a decade ago, starting around 2006. At the time there were lots of conspiracy theories around who was to blame. Rather funny...

[Dave Lochner]

There is lots of good information at the International Joint Commission website: IJC.org.

Ontario is currently at 246.5 feet, the Moses Saunders Dam is releasing about 10K cubic meters per second, The inflow is around 9.5K cms.

Some authorities are predicting the lake will crest at 250 ft. The top of the Moses-Saunders Dam is at 252.

Keep the muck boots handy.

[rslifkin]

The warm winter might be our saving grace, as more of the normal winter precipitation is already in the lake rather than accumulated on land as snow to melt in the spring. Ontario is high, but it's been this high over the winter before and only flooded a couple of those times. So hopefully the rest of the winter isn't too wet and the reduced snow pack is enough to keep us from getting too high.

If we don't get much over 248, I'll be happy. If we get over 249, I'll be building a bridge to get to the boat :/ If we get too much over 249, I'm not sure when they'll stop launching boats, as by 249 feet the entire lift pit is just about level with the water.

[thruska]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I'm sitting her looking at the very high shoreline of Lake Huron right now, and wondering what things are going to look like come Spring. This is supposed to be the low point in the season, after all. Yet we're at near record-breaking highs everywhere in the Great Lakes basin.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/dash...GLD_HTML5.html

Predictions currently are for all the lakes to be way above the longer term averages, with most Lakes breaking through the all time record highs. I'm no longer sailing these Great Lakes, but this can't be good news for many marinas and other facilities built down along the shores.

Are people making plans for the coming soggy season?

Yes western Lake Michigan suffered all year with high waters. Launch ramps unusable. Docks required access ramps lengthened. Water over bulkheads in mant small harbors.. I guess corp of engineers very busy. Snow meltcan only exasberate the situation.

[roverhi]

My parents had a cottage on a bluff on the East Shore of Lake Michigan. It had been built in the '20s and was a hundred feet or so from the edge but nearly fell into the Lake during a period of High water in the '70s. They eventually had to move the cottage as far back on the lot as they could as the bank eroded nearly to their front porch. Wonder if that cottage is still there???

[skipper53]

The East shore of Lake Michigan has seen a number of cottages fall into the lake due to serious erosion. A number of harbors have had dock failures and lakes side roads are collapsing in Suttons Bay. At Leland, the historic Fishtown area is frequently flooded and building are being removed from the wharf and new higher foundations being built.
Fortunate that my slip in East Jordan is a floating dock, but suspect t there some limits as to how high those docks can float. Only 7 or 8 years ago the harbor had to be dredged. Just heard today that lake levels are up roughly a foot from this time last year. Never dull at the lake shore.

[flyingnut40]

If it makes you feel any better, there are British scientists that are saying we are headed into a mini ice age right now. It will last 33 years, 3 sunspot cycles and the cooling will allow the ice caps to recover a bit. The last mini ice age was the Monder Minimum in I believe the 1600's.
Can't say what that will do for this year but spring runoff and the like may indeed moderate for the foreseeable future.....
I know the abnormally low sunspot activity has pretty much killed SSB radio ;-(

[ArmyDaveNY]

There has been some grumbling along Lakes Michigan and Huron about the water being released from Superior. I suspect that the will continue to release water and those down stream will have to make adjustments. The relative lack of winter will indeed help since snowfall is in essence an above ground reservoir. I am sure the shipping lines will be happy but as has been said, things go in cycles and at some point again we will complain about low water.

[ArmyDaveNY]

It will be interesting to see if the higher water increases erosion at Niagara Falls. For those not familiar with the falls, during the winter and at night during the summer, the two power authorities (Canadian and US, one on each side of the falls) drain off substantial amounts of water. During the winter and at night, fifty percent is drained for power generation and during the day in the summer "just" twenty five percent is siphoned off. This diversion has slowed the erosion of the falls. The historical rate of erosion is roughly three feet per year but currently it is only one foot per year due primarily to this diversion.