Hurricane Season haul out in FL or GA?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by bobnlesley

But to be fair Gord, that's one of the spring predictions when the meteorologists have only rolled dice, drawn straws and cut cards; the guesses predictions that they make around June after tossing the coins and playing paper-rock-scissors are usually a better guide.

To be fair, Bob, I'm only pointing out that some experts don't agree with carlosproa’s predictions.
Indeed, we can expect the likely prediction accuracy, regarding hurricane activity & ENSO, to increase, the closer in, we get.

[carlosproa]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting 17 named storms this season, eight hurricanes, and four major (Cat 3+) hurricanes.
The likely absence of El Nino is a primary factor for the above-average activity. El Nino typically causes fewer hurricanes to develop, largely due to more vertical wind shear, which tears tropical systems apart. The atmosphere is also typically more stable during El Nino patterns.
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3399642


The latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centers of Long-Range Forecasts indicate a moderate likelihood (65%) that the La Niña event will continue into February-April. The odds shift rapidly thereafter, indicating a 70% chance that the tropical Pacific will return to ENSO-neutral conditions by the April-June 2021 season. The outlook for the second half of the year is currently uncertain.
➥ https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandat...%C3%B1a-update

That sounds good overall. I am just a local in south Florida since 1991, so who knows? Maybe we have been lucky during La Niña in south Florida. It only takes one bad like Andrew to make your life miserable. Back then my sailboat survived Andrew with a 3 anchor set up in Maul Lake. Of course there were not as many water front buildings back then and much more mangrove. In my experience during La Niña years, it has been easier to survive the hurricanes as they seem to be less intense; but it could be a big coincidence. 30 years is nothing when it comes to measure hurricanes and statistics.

[GordMay]

El Niño is generally good news, for the US East coast, including Florida. La Niña not so much.


In some basins, El Niño events increase tropical cyclone activity (e.g., the central North Pacific near Hawaii, the South Paci fic, and the Northwest Pacific between 160 E and the Dateline). Tropical cyclone activity decreases in other basins (e.g., the Atlantic, the Northwest Pacific west of 160 E, and the Australian region)

Dr.Bill Gray [founder of the CSU hurricane research team] found that the probability of at least two hurricanes striking the U.S. is 28% during El Niño years, compared with 48% during neutral years and 66% during La Niña years.
Likewise, the probabilities for at least one intense hurricane striking are 23%, 58% and 63% for El Niño, neutral, and La Niña years, respectively.

ENSO-neutral refers to periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average.

[Lateral Hazard]

St Mary's is great. People. Are fantastic.Draft can be a problem

Originally Posted by OutOfControl

Agree with the recommendation of St Marys, GA. The St. Marys Boat Services yard is reasonable and allows DIY. I actually go there every two weeks for a few minutes checking on a friends sailboat.
St Marys Boat Services

Crackerboy's Ft. Pierce location is a straight shot in through Ft. Pierce inlet from the Atlantic.

[Atraxia]

Originally Posted by s/v Jedi

Hey Atracia, your profile says you have a Sundeer 64 like we do... but the picture suggests otherwise?

Atraxia was my previous boat (the one in the avatar).
Where are you located?

[s/v Jedi]

Originally Posted by Atraxia

Atraxia was my previous boat (the one in the avatar).
Where are you located?

We are currently in the Bahamas but our “base” is Port Canaveral now. Which Sundeer 64 do you have? Are you on the Sundeer mailing list?

[Atraxia]

Originally Posted by s/v Jedi

We are currently in the Bahamas but our “base” is Port Canaveral now. Which Sundeer 64 do you have? Are you on the Sundeer mailing list?

I’m in Grand Bahama till Sunday and then back to Fort Lauderdale. I’m on the sloop version of the SD64. If you happen to be in Port Lucaya by any chance, stop by and say hello

[s/v Jedi]

Originally Posted by Atraxia

I’m in Grand Bahama till Sunday and then back to Fort Lauderdale. I’m on the sloop version of the SD64. If you happen to be in Port Lucaya by any chance, stop by and say hello

Nice! We’re staying away from Grand Bahama because of travel restrictions. We know all the SD64’s... what is the name of yours?

[Atraxia]

Originally Posted by s/v Jedi

Nice! We’re staying away from Grand Bahama because of travel restrictions. We know all the SD64’s... what is the name of yours?

It was actually easy and friendly coming in. I’m on SunSpray

[MrsMeltemiWind]

Thanks to all. We are in fact thinking of Thunderbolt in Savannah GA. Does anyone have experience here? The reasons for not picking Crackerboys in Ft. Lauderdale will be simply for insurance, and likelyhood of Hurricane issues. (Yes, we recognize Hurricanes can go up the coast. Our other option that take our depth and height is Thunderbolt in Savannah, but they don’t offer tie-down straps. As soon as we get to either location we will put her up on the hard to get Rigging work done and new teak decks, so we’ll be in the yard for 2-3 months.

[Lateral Hazard]

Originally Posted by GordMay

To be fair, Bob, I'm only pointing out that some experts don't agree with carlosproa’s predictions.
Indeed, we can expect the likely prediction accuracy, regarding hurricane activity & ENSO, to increase, the closer in, we get.

Under the circumstances I think they do a pretty good job of forecasting, overall.
https://www.clickorlando.com/weather...ricane-season/

[rnanaples]

Originally Posted by MrsMeltemiWind

We are taking delivery of a 66" sailboat in Port Everglades in early June. We need to get rigging work done and teak decks done (2mos-4mos project) and we're trying to determine whether we should pull her out at CrackerBoy in Riviera Beach Florida or do we take her north 30 degrees to Brunswick Landing Marina.

We believe we've secured insurance with a painful deductible either way.

We have no experience being in the region during hurricane season, much less having a boat up on the hard during this time. Welcome any thoughts/advice; especially if you have experience in the summer months in either location.

Well florida is the land of scam artist so I would not do it here. Have you looked at the yards on the Okeechobee waterway. I would find somewhere that keeping it there and yard charges do not kill you. NC has a Ton of yards. Do some research the money you save might be huge.

[OldSailors]

Brunswick Landing Marina is a good hurricane hole marina and can accommodate your boat tied up on one of the pier end "T" sections. There is enough water that draft will not be a problem. The marina has a number of live aboards currently in residence and already has a few folks tied up for hurricane season.


Also good news for staying there, or leaving the boat in the water there, is the fact that there is no current. Six to seven foot tides, yes, but the marina is in a closed off section of a marsh river and there is no current, so bottom growth is minimal. Utilities are dependable and the marina has 24 hour rent-a-cop security.


I think the small boatyard there can haulout your boat, but it would be approaching the max they could handle. I haven't used the boatyard and the only thing I have heard from others seems to indicate that they are not the best, but they do charge like they are.


Call them soon if you want to stay there in summer 2021.

[chriswheat]

I've found that most marinas and boat storage/repair facilities state their policy in writing and stand by it. It falls on the customer to educate himself as to those policies and either accept them or not. In my case it took real life experience rather than (or in addition to) "reading their rules" to learn how to get along in that environment. Do your homework and leave no ambiguous stone unturned. Most service providers are happy to answer your questions. If they aren't then find another one.

[sanibel sailor]

Originally Posted by rnanaples

Well florida is the land of scam artist so I would not do it here. Have you looked at the yards on the Okeechobee waterway. I would find somewhere that keeping it there and yard charges do not kill you. NC has a Ton of yards. Do some research the money you save might be huge.

fixed bridges at both ends... big boat/big mast