Will the Oil Spill Bring More Cats on the Market ?

[kevingy]

Originally Posted by Denvermike66

Just in case you missed the prediction by NOAA:

A few things:

1. The disclaimer in the first 5 seconds of the video says that the video is not a forecast (i.e., "prediction").

2. If it were a prediction, there is no indication of severity in the affected regions. Therefore, the amount of polution that escapes the Gulf of Mexico and makes it to the Atlantic (or for that matter, the polution that reaches, say, Tampa) could as easily be measured in parts per million as it could gallons per acre. There's no way to tell. The media will report "a sheen on the water" as the same level of polution that has suffocated wildlife.

3. An environmental disaster of this magnitude has never occurred. No one, not the "experts" at NOAA or anywhere else, and by no means the media, knows what's going to happen in the coming weeks, months, and years. BP is having a hard enough time trying to cap the man-made well. How can they possibly know how Mother Nature will react to this much oil in the ocean? Whenever you hear anyone tell you what's going to happen with the oil, they don't know any more than you or I know. It's far easier to believe someone telling you it's going to be a disaster than to have hope that it's going to be anything less than catastrophic. I prefer to be open-minded and optimistic.

[kevingy]

Originally Posted by Serenity_

why our government would give them a 70 million dollar release of liability......but that is another argument.

I agree that the release of liability is ridiculous. BP should be hung out to dry. If this spill were an unavoidable accident, that’s one thing, but that’s not the case here. There is enough evidence that the rig didn’t meet operational safety requirements, inspectors were paid to look the other way, management ordered rig workers to continue despite warnings from the rig and the well, and whistleblowers were harshly reprimanded. That’s negligence if I’ve ever seen it.

As for “why”, humanity is addicted to fossil fuels, mostly because there are no realistic alternatives. What technology can replace the engine in your car or boat that is as inexpensive to buy and operate, safe for consumers to use and safe in the event of a collision or other breakdown, can be refueled pretty much anywhere, and can provide comparable performance? Every current alternative has a significant drawback, typically cost, performance, or both. (Of course, there’s the typically-American aversion to mass transit that doesn’t help either.)

I hate cars. I own two. I hate fossil fuels. My cars’ engines and my boat motor burn gas. Hybrid vehicles still burn gas and can’t tow my boat. Electric vehicles have a limited range and can’t tow my boat. Hydrogen and natural gas vehicles are difficult to refuel. I’ve seen the footage of the Hindenburg enough to know what might happen if hydrogen gets into an accident. I would love to replace my boat motor with an electric motor, but that entails more weight (additional batteries) and long refueling times (solar).

Want to be the world’s richest person? Solve this problem.

[Serenity_]

Originally Posted by kevingy

Want to be the world’s richest person? Solve this problem.

[Dragon Lady]

Just saw the news report on Obama's decaration of doing nothing about the spill and then the big folks on capital Hill grilling the oil execs saying they wouldn't do what BP did.
If that's the case will we see all of these type of wells shut down?
Somehow I doubt it.

[Aussiesuede]

President Obama announced Wednesday that energy giant BP will finance a $20 billion fund to compensate people whose livelihoods have been damaged by the devastating oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and the giant British company's chairman apologized to America for the worst spill in U.S. history.

BP will contribute $5 billion a year for four years into an escrow account. BP is providing assurance its financial obligations will be met by setting aside $20 billion in U.S. assets.

Obama announces BP's $20B compensation fund - USATODAY.com

So the legal cap was a paltry $75 million. Congress wanted to raise the cap to $10 billion but was meeting resistance from Congressmen who were in the back pocket of big Oil. And Obama comes out of this meeting with a $20 billion commitment? What the heck went on in that meeting? Big Oil NEVER get's bent over a barrel and usually just thumb their nose at govt officials. The French never got anywhere near a reasonable commitment from big oil duril that ENORMOUS Amoco spill back in the 70'ss that was more than twice the size of this current gulf spill. It's a rare day when anyone get's big oil to pony up any real dough since big oil knows that all it has to do to unseat an uncooperative politician is to throw big sums of money at his competition, and fund opposition to anything on his political agenda...

Back on topic - I don't see prices changing much in the next couple years. I suspect that many will simply hold onto vessels instead of selling at deep discounts (at least in any significant numbers) knowing that when (if) the world economy ever get's going again, all the boat manufacturers that have been put out of business will create a future supply problem - thus eventually increasing the value of "ready to sail" Cat's on the market.

[Tropic Cat]

How can the spill not have an effect on boat pricing? Having said this, 99% of all pleasure power boats are used for fishing. If the spill turns into the ecological disaster we all fear, these boats will hit the market with a vengeance.

I think that all sail boats will just stay in their slips until this storm passes.

[kevingy]

Originally Posted by Tropic Cat

How can the spill not have an effect on boat pricing?
...
I think that all sail boats will just stay in their slips until this storm passes.

While an enormous spill, the number of affected catamarans (the OP's topic) will be relatively small compared to the number floating. I would expect that only those cats damaged by the oil would see reduced pricing. Should a significant number of boats are damaged, a splintering may occur. The prices on damaged (salvaged) boats may plummet while the prices on undamaged boats may skyrocket, as they are now at a premium. For that to happen, the entire Florida coastline would have to be swamped with oil. I don't see that happening.

[Dragon Lady]

When will the oil spill end?
When will the economy recover?

Who knows?

One thing is for sure prices are softening and will continue to do untill the world economy turns around.

New prices on euro built boats have come down.

Other boat builders are going to have a tough time staying in buisness competing with them.

Some people are buying these boats and getting a bargin, some of them also think they can sell their old boats for good money, yeah right.

If you are going to hold out for better prices to come back be prepared for a long wait oil spill or no oil spill.