Used catamaran prices, availability during recession or crisis?

[slug]

I’ll bet that “cruising “ will be not possible for a long time

Sophisticated countries will get their situations under control soon

The rest of the world will lag far behind

Frontiers will be restricted

[arsenelupiga]

there is another angle to this that appears escaped CF gurus.

This is not just financial crisis so comparing to 2008 may not be best. We have virus that is killing and currenet death rate in some countries hovering near 10 %. What if this is second wave that was killer that killed mostly younger in 1918 ???

if this is so, services will be abruptly ended, and most impact will be felt in cities where people rely 100% on shops for food and often also for water.

Yeah, mad max scenario is not that far fetched.

And sure boat anchored in remote anchorage is around 1000 better option than any land dwelling as it is much harder to defend from virus and hopeless crowd.

[mvweebles]

The hard part will always be finding the motivated seller. Just because market dynamics may reduce values by 30% does not mean every owner/seller is willing to take that type of haircut. Some who hold mortgages/loans may be unable to bring a check to closing; others may just want out to avoid moorage fees. It's a case-by-case basis to find a truly motivated seller.

If the OP is asking about bottom fishing, my guess is that wait a few months until the gravity of the economic changes sink in and the new-normal is clear. Makes little difference whether the economic changes are driven by virus, housing crisis, war, dot-com bust, terrorism, whatever. Some owners will be motivated sellers, many will not be. Identifying them is the challenge - a broker sure won't tell you.

No stats to support other than observation, but used boat prices took a whack in 2008 recession and never really recovered. The re-sale curve abruptly shifted lower by a good 25%. If this is a recession as most experts state, and it is sustained for a couple quarters, will probably happen again. Time will tell.

Peter

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by slug

I’ll bet that “cruising “ will be not possible for a long time

Sophisticated countries will get their situations under control soon

The rest of the world will lag far behind

Frontiers will be restricted

If you are talking about cruising to exotic remote countries...sure.

But that's pretty much irrelevant to the discussion of impacts on market prices as the vast majority of cruisers, cruise locally. If you are in N. America or Europe, that falls under your sophisticated countries category.

[valhalla360]

double post

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by mvweebles

The hard part will always be finding the motivated seller. Just because market dynamics may reduce values by 30% does not mean every owner/seller is willing to take that type of haircut. Some who hold mortgages/loans may be unable to bring a check to closing; others may just want out to avoid moorage fees. It's a case-by-case basis to find a truly motivated seller.

If the economy is crushed, it won't be hard to find motivated sellers.

Most boats you see at the marina have a mortgage on them and even those that don't still cost a few thousand per year to feed and house.

When people lose their jobs and there are no new ones because everything is shut down, they will be motivated real quick.

[12BCruzn]

"Oh, and the guys sitting there with money to buy haven't seen their available funds drop with the market?"

Indeed! There will be people who will be forced to sell their assets at steep discounts just to have money to survive. I saw that in 2009. Some will lose their boats when they have to stop paying the marinas, boatyards or banks.

[ol1970]

Originally Posted by 12BCruzn

"Oh, and the guys sitting there with money to buy haven't seen their available funds drop with the market?"

Indeed! There will be people who will be forced to sell their assets at steep discounts just to have money to survive. I saw that in 2009. Some will lose their boats when they have to stop paying the marinas, boatyards or banks.

Yep, luxury items that are depreciating assets will get pretty cheap here in 18 months or so. Only after capitulation do the prices start to fall, it is always a lag from the even that caused it.

Can you imagine just having sent a big check off to Dream Yacht Charters to purchase one of their "guaranteed" revenue boats? I inquired about such an event, and their answer was pretty much "well that is very unlikely, but yes, you could be screwed".

There are some of us out there though that are sitting on cash and will be able to scoop up some crazy deals from those who overextended themselves.

[sailjumanji]

Originally Posted by BlueSkyOne

The fact that cat manufacturers order books are full 1 year forward will also mean there will be small number of cases of people who pull out and need to firesale their slot, so this has the effect of taking the heat out of new build market, anyone who locked finance in last 6-months are now faced with having locked high interest rates. All those 38 foot cat sales at 450k that were at 300k in 2016, well reality will crash in.

Hmmm, dont know about other manufacturers, but the price list for my Seawind 1160 Lite (38 ft cat) that we used to spec out the boat in Jan 2018 was the same one in effect in 2015. Just a few changes to equipment, but most of them in my favor. Like synthetic steering wheels and some other things became standard instead of options, etc.

[Mr B]

Originally Posted by sailjumanji

Hmmm, dont know about other manufacturers, but the price list for my Seawind 1160 Lite (38 ft cat) that we used to spec out the boat in Jan 2018 was the same one in effect in 2015. Just a few changes to equipment, but most of them in my favor. Like synthetic steering wheels and some other things became standard instead of options, etc.

2015, Seawind was made in Sydney Australia,
2018, Seawind was made in Vietnam,
Lower manufacturing costs,

[Barra]

On the charter market front I see dream yacht charters are already offering new discounts this week to anyone foolish enough to wade in right away.

I reckon the charter market may well be hit harder than the gfc and dyc may be thinking the same. Near new cats may be the worst hit % wise in this case.

I passed on the DYC ownership model as there was too much credit risk. Wouldn't want to be a dyc "owner" right now.

[Sand crab]

Originally Posted by Barra

I passed on the DYC ownership model as there was too much credit risk. Wouldn't want to be a dyc "owner" right now.

Can you explain to us how the program works. Who is financing the boat? Is the charter company underwriting it?

[fivecapes]

He brings up a good point towards the end....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBTJcELGeAQ

[robert sailor]

I can't see this pandemic being over in the summer. I can see it slowing down but you can expect another wave in the fall. No one is going to feel safe until a proven vaccine has been developed and also keep in mind that this virus has already mutated once and it could mutate again which could mean the vaccine would not be available for a couple of years.
The corporations in the western world have carried very heavy debt, which was fine with such low interest rates but not so good when your cash flow decreases. We are in uncharted waters right now and no clear answers on the horizon. Obviously the human race will get through it without a big problem but a very significant number of people will not be alive to see the end of it.

[rabbi]

Originally Posted by fivecapes

He brings up a good point towards the end....

"A little bit of a downturn right now"

aha

My guess is -99%, because life brings up other priorities at the moment. And because everybody knows there will be much better buying oppotunities down the road.