Prices coming down?

[Heath68]

Originally Posted by ranchero76

People, think about this - in June 2020 ALONE - USA printed more money THAN IN 200 PREVIOUS YEARS. These money not supported by anything and worth less than paper they printed on. Same happening in other countries. It's not question "if", it's question "when" this bubble will pop. The virus hysteria is just a cherry on the cake. And cake is coming, regardless you like it or not. And when cake will come, for MOST people boats will be last thing to care about.
If you think you will be one of these who won't be affected...you might as well buy lottery ticket - chances are about the same.

I saw a FB post where the post called its government incompetent and should be thrown out as it had plunged New Zealand into debt. I did a bit of maths and pointed out that it was $33,750 for every man woman or child in NZ. I then added (a little playfully) they should think themselves lucky.. every U.S. man woman or child owes $81,053 and counting fast... I don't know how they are going to go with this but assuming the debt split between the federal bank and other countries (like Saudi and China etc) if they ask for that money back during a cold war then the U.S. will be in recession for generations OR will have to face being simply owned by the Chinese.

[ranchero76]

Originally Posted by Heath68

if they ask for that money back during a cold war then the U.S. will be in recession for generations OR will have to face being simply owned by the Chinese.

...or cold war will become hot war. For hundreds of years war always was used to reset economics and resolve insoluble contradictions. Except it was no nuclear weapon on Earth. If not hot war, alternatives will not be much better as they must serve exactly same purposes as wars in the past.

[mvweebles]

Originally Posted by Heath68

I saw a FB post where the post called its government incompetent and should be thrown out as it had plunged New Zealand into debt. I did a bit of maths and pointed out that it was $33,750 for every man woman or child in NZ. I then added (a little playfully) they should think themselves lucky.. every U.S. man woman or child owes $81,053 and counting fast... I don't know how they are going to go with this but assuming the debt split between the federal bank and other countries (like Saudi and China etc) if they ask for that money back during a cold war then the U.S. will be in recession for generations OR will have to face being simply owned by the Chinese.

Being the world's reserve currency provides a lot of cushion and buoyancy to the USD. Think about it: if a distributor in Argentina purchases a container of shoes from a manufacturer in China brokered by a Dutch bank, the transaction is still completed in US Dollars. If there was any doubt the Euro was a failed attempt to provide an alternative, chaos around Brexit provided the final nail.

Re: Coronavirus, the US appears to be fairing slightly worse than many developed countries due to some self inflicted wounds. But as others have said, the effects are not being felt symmetrically. People of at least some financial means appear to be largely unaffected and have become especially enamored with self-contained vacation options such as RVs and Boats. But the answer to the OPs question - when will prices come down - lies in whether this is a short term fad or a longer term trend.

Crazy world these days.

[arsenelupiga]

lets face it:

french are by light years ahead of everyone regarding cats production, and distance is only increasing.

they are not like americans that when notice increased demand, hire clueless workforce and produce more but lower quality. french keep quality and lower production numbers.

As there is increased demand for RV,boats, out of city living in general, and also new generation of retirees ready to make move, one should not expect lesser prices especially for cats in next several years. these printing guys making sure property prices do not fall, this gives serious power to buy decent cat and keep healthy cash pile for expenses.

[BlueSkyOne]

A lot of comments suggest boat sales are increasing, however if you look at the share prices of the large French manufacturers then I think it gives you all the information you need. The fact that sales have been hit and share prices remainig depressed despite the factories having been restarted months ago is quite a picture. And this is in a time of low oil prices which should gennerally be supportive of boat bulders margin as their input costs will be vastly reduced.

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by BlueSkyOne

A lot of comments suggest boat sales are increasing, however if you look at the share prices of the large French manufacturers then I think it gives you all the information you need. The fact that sales have been hit and share prices remainig depressed despite the factories having been restarted months ago is quite a picture. And this is in a time of low oil prices which should gennerally be supportive of boat bulders margin as their input costs will be vastly reduced.

That’s speculation. Actual sales are a measure of the current market, not equity trends. Those share prices are people guessing earnings might be lower (or accurately share prices might be lower) in the future.

[Doubleplay]

Originally Posted by ranchero76

People, think about this - in June 2020 ALONE - USA printed more money THAN IN 200 PREVIOUS YEARS. These money not supported by anything and worth less than paper they printed on. Same happening in other countries. It's not question "if", it's question "when" this bubble will pop. The virus hysteria is just a cherry on the cake. And cake is coming, regardless you like it or not. And when cake will come, for MOST people boats will be last thing to care about.
If you think you will be one of these who won't be affected...you might as well buy lottery ticket - chances are about the same.

Couple things. We don't print money on paper anymore just push a button. I don't even remember when I handled paper money last time. Second as long as the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, it'll hold it's value with some fluctuations. However I agree with you that there'll be a blowback on the other side of this with this much free money and low interest.

[BlueSkyOne]

Originally Posted by Chotu

That’s speculation. Actual sales are a measure of the current market, not equity trends. Those share prices are people guessing earnings might be lower (or accurately share prices might be lower) in the future.

My point being that if you look at the financial accounts and equity trends I would challenge reports of the supposed expanding actual sales. The fact that the major manufacturers have in some cases consolidated or cut brands (albeit not in the multihull space) it's not quite the rosy picture some like to paint. The accounts are quite telling in that it is the overhang of charter orders that has kept things alive in the multihull space and those speculators are probably the smart folk who recognise that the charter sector is probably going to be the worst hit. To replace those sales private buyers will get better deals which is why we have already seen some dealers offer some pretty decent package deals that were not there a year ago.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Do you ever back up your never ending optimism with Data? You have no idea what you say is true, I hope you are right BUT the reality is at this stage it's just wishful thinking.....nothing more.

I see. Others can prattle on about impending financial doom and the End Of Cruising As We Know It, without links or data, and you 100% agree, but I make what I believe is a fairly optimistic yet realistic guesstimate about the resumption of cruising, and I gotta prove it?

Here's my proof: the world economy is too big to fail. Too many countries and too much money are tied up in it now to let it fall to bits. And as I've said previously, there's lots of wealth parked out there; that wealth will be severely depleted if the world economy tanks, so count on people and governments knowing that some spending now to get people over the rough patch will preserve and increase wealth down the road.

And I expect that economies that depend on tourism, including cruising, will find a way to make it happen, in two years or less.

We'll see who's right soon enough.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

I see. Others can prattle on about impending financial doom and the End Of Cruising As We Know It, without links or data, and you 100% agree, but I make what I believe is a fairly optimistic yet realistic guesstimate about the resumption of cruising, and I gotta prove it? [emoji2]

Here's my proof: the world economy is too big to fail. Too many countries and too much money are tied up in it now to let it fall to bits. And as I've said previously, there's lots of wealth parked out there; that wealth will be severely depleted if the world economy tanks, so count on people and governments knowing that some spending now to get people over the rough patch will preserve and increase wealth down the road.

And I expect that economies that depend on tourism, including cruising, will find a way to make it happen, in two years or less.

We'll see who's right soon enough.

Ah no , the world economy is to big to fail is not data or in anyway evidence that your posts are nothing but wishful thinking, and no, theres been plenty of data by myself and others regarding the economic impact this is having on related threads that you have been part of, happy to dig up a heap of numbers for you to refresh your memory if you'd like?

I hope you are right, truly do ,BUT what's wrong with viewing reality as it is which then gives you clarity and the ability to position yourself and prepare, we are adults arent we? the worlds not always rosy...shock horror!

Btw, you believe in global warming according much or your writings, you've presented data in the past to support your views...that's different is it? not very optimistic.

[alex_sauvage]

Originally Posted by ranchero76

People, think about this - in June 2020 ALONE - USA printed more money THAN IN 200 PREVIOUS YEARS. These money not supported by anything and worth less than paper they printed on. Same happening in other countries. It's not question "if", it's question "when" this bubble will pop. The virus hysteria is just a cherry on the cake. And cake is coming, regardless you like it or not. And when cake will come, for MOST people boats will be last thing to care about.
If you think you will be one of these who won't be affected...you might as well buy lottery ticket - chances are about the same.

Can you provide your source for this information regarding money "printing"? Do you mean actual paper money, that nobody really using anymore or US debt. By the end of 2019 US debt was 22 trillion, today it is 26.6 trillion. It is about 20% increase in 7 months: not really good, but considering situation it is not the end of the world. US pays about 1.5% interest to service this debt, so as long as this number stays low and they can cover interest they should be OK. Current inflation rate is 0.6%, way lower than in 2019, so I am sure what those predictions of doom are based on...

[Saleen411]

How long are people gonna hold on to their boats when there is no place to cruise?

How many charter boats are going to hit the market in the next year?

So many questions, so few answers.

Another point that may or may not have been mentioned....

Rich people ( whatever constitutes "rich") are relatively unaffected by this pandemic. Right now they still have their money, homes, stocks, whatever. Many are obviously buying yachts, RVs and expensive homes. Waterfront properties here are hot. My friend in Deerfield Beach says the same thing....prices are NOT going down...quite the contrary.

I have no clue what boat prices may do during the pandemic...HOWEVER, if I was a gambling man, I would bet that prices will eventually soften. I'm just gonna sit on the sidelines and watch what unfolds. One more year to retirement.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by alex_sauvage

Can you provide your source for this information regarding money "printing"? Do you mean actual paper money, that nobody really using anymore or US debt. By the end of 2019 US debt was 22 trillion, today it is 26.6 trillion. It is about 20% increase in 7 months: not really good, but considering situation it is not the end of the world. US pays about 1.5% interest to service this debt, so as long as this number stays low and they can cover interest they should be OK. Current inflation rate is 0.6%, way lower than in 2019, so I am sure what those predictions of doom are based on...

I think he means national debt, not money printing, although "money printing is a big part of this debt. Without looking I believe US national debt was approximately 8 trillion in 2008, it's now 27 trillion, but theres alot more debt across the board than that even if you dont include unfunded liabilities.

In regards to interest rates have a look at the mechanisms that are keeping them low and also the misallocation of funds that are by product of artificially cheap money.

It's a little more complicated than your broad brush strokes would suggest....covid is just the great accelerator, the fundamentals were broken prior to covid.

I see the Davos meeting 2021 has been named "the great reset", why?

[arsenelupiga]

money printing is exxagerated media topic. USD is printed and then lent to other nations. So one would need to know that lend details as well.

but it is a reality that manufacturing and other industries and education are falling behind in the west, and there is no plan or ability to reverse that, that is real issue that will bite.

[daletournier]

Hmmmm, not exactly right, yes other nations do buy US debt BUT the FED is also buying USdebt ,lots of it, look into debt monetization, trillions are being created from nothing, more so than at anytime in history, therefore I dont believe its exaggerated.

Btw, this Fed debt buying is heavily linked to the low interest rates that a previous poster mentioned earlier, bond supply vs demand. It's way more complicated than a couple of paragraphs can relay.

The end result? who knows? Inflation? massive currency devaluation? It's really unknown at this stage as we are in new territory.

Theres always unintentional consequences.

Originally Posted by arsenelupiga

money printing is exxagerated media topic. USD is printed and then lent to other nations. So one would need to know that lend details as well.

but it is a reality that manufacturing and other industries and education are falling behind in the west, and there is no plan or ability to reverse that, that is real issue that will bite.