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23-10-2021, 11:47
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2
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2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
Wondering what CF's thoughts are on the future of all-solar-powered cats.
I figure by 2030 we'll have marine-grade solar panels at 30% efficiency (at least) and solid-state battery packs with at least 2x the energy density (poss. as high as 4x) of LiIon batteries with about a tenth the risk of fire, explosion, or toxic chemical leak.
At that point, more reasonably priced 40'-50' versions of the Silent Yacht-style all-solar catamarans should be more than possible.
So, at that point would you give up wind and switch to electrons?
You lose a lot of the romance and maybe emergency motive power if the solar systems/batteries go completely offline, but you gain greater speed, less risk of capsizing, something going wrong with the sails, riggings, etc.
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23-10-2021, 12:15
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 54
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Re: 2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
Hopefully,SOONER:-).Abrazos.G
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23-10-2021, 12:33
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: oriental
Boat: crowther trimaran 33
Posts: 4,455
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Re: 2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
Quote:
Originally Posted by robertc1964
Wondering what CF's thoughts are on the future of all-solar-powered cats.
I figure by 2030 we'll have marine-grade solar panels at 30% efficiency (at least) and
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Perhaps, currently you can get 24%.
Instead of focusing on a few percentage of solar efficiency, why not focus on drive efficiency. Most inboards are terribly inefficient. Engine aide, the efficiency from the shaft to propulsion is typically in the 15-30% range at best leaving huge room for improvement. Container ships, and submarines generally are far better and their propeller size shows.
On a cat, the propeller diameter should be about the beam of the hull. So 4, 5 even 6ft diameter in this case. This is required to achieve high efficiency of 90%. I doubled efficiency by going from 12 inch propeller to 32 inch and would improve a bit more more with larger as I am currently around 65-75% on the propeller. Planetary gears required lose 3% per stage are far less than the gains from the increased flow interaction.
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solid-state battery packs with at least 2x the energy density (poss. as high as 4x) of LiIon batteries with about a tenth the risk of fire, explosion, or toxic chemical leak.
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Seems much less likely. Currently lithium ion has much better energy density than lifepo4. It is possible to completely eliminate the risk of fire or explosion by spacing the cells far apart from each other so they cannot cause a chain reaction and protecting each cell with fireproof material.
This results in physically larger space but no added weight or cost, and weight is the biggest issue anyway.
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At that point, more reasonably priced 40'-50' versions of the Silent Yacht-style all-solar catamarans should be more than possible.
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What is reasonable? I already am solar powered. I had solar only propulsion in 2009. By 2030, people will say 2040, or 2050 etc. When in fact it has been possible for many years already.
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So, at that point would you give up wind and switch to electrons?
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Completely foolish to not have some means of harnessing the wind. If you can harness the wind you can also use this to recharge the batteries by hydro power.
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You lose a lot of the romance and maybe emergency motive power if the solar systems/batteries go completely offline, but you gain greater speed, less risk of capsizing, something going wrong with the sails, riggings, etc.
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You mean lower speed. If risk of "capsize" is an issue, you definitely want sails, so that you have the speed and duration to evade storms. Something can go wrong with anything you have, but generally sails and rigging are more reliable and better understood than solar.
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23-10-2021, 14:30
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 54
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Re: 2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
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23-10-2021, 15:58
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#5
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: La Ciudad de la Misión Didacus de Alcalá en Alta California, Virreinato de Nueva España
Boat: Cal 20
Posts: 21,621
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Re: 2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
Quote:
Originally Posted by robertc1964
Wondering what CF's thoughts are on the future of all-solar-powered cats.
I figure by 2030 we'll have marine-grade solar panels at 30% efficiency (at least) and solid-state battery packs with at least 2x the energy density (poss. as high as 4x) of LiIon batteries with about a tenth the risk of fire, explosion, or toxic chemical leak.
At that point, more reasonably priced 40'-50' versions of the Silent Yacht-style all-solar catamarans should be more than possible.
So, at that point would you give up wind and switch to electrons?
You lose a lot of the romance and maybe emergency motive power if the solar systems/batteries go completely offline, but you gain greater speed, less risk of capsizing, something going wrong with the sails, riggings, etc.
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I like to sail in an of itself, I would not give it up for just EP. Also, I don't see EP getting there by 2030.
Currently the best production panels peak in the 21-23% range and you pay a bit of a premium for them. I would say there will not be 30% efficient solar cells available to commodity scale by 2030, 2035 maybe, 2040 probably. Anytime now there might be a breakthru that commercializes easily but I wouldn't count on it.
I doubt the energy density and specific energy of any type of battery will double what we currently have in 20yr, let alone 10yr.
How does the EP outlined above give you greater speed than sailing? Current technology lets a lightweight 40' cat cruise 24/7 at 4kt when there are calmish seas and clear skies during the day. Let's say Solar efficiency goes up from 20 to 30% efficiency. That's an extra 50% energy per day. For a 40' waterline, 15,000lb boat the power demand almost doubles from 4kt to 5kt. Let's say we can hit 5kt with just a 50% increase in energy output from the solar panels. The key limiting factor here is solar output, the boat is already fully covered in solar, the only way to get more power is higher efficiency. Using current technology LFP batteries would require and extra 500-1,000lb of batteries but that extra weight would only somewhat impact speed. Existing 40' sailing boats, mono or multi, easily average 5kt rain or shine. There are specific passages and seasons where this is not the case, but generally a 5kt AVERAGE should be achievable no problem.
For short sprints battery capacity governs, for long passages capacity to generate energy governs. You could have a battery 10x better than today, but that would be good for a 2-4d sprint, then you would be plodding along at whatever speed you can maintain while also banking power to use overnight. This is a cruising forum so I assume that long passages are desired. For going up and down the ICW in the US, the Caribbean, island hopping up and down the east coast of Australia, and tooling around the UK and parts of the EU, where you sprint for 1-3d at 6-7kt then sit and see the sites for a week then battery capacity for storage is more important.
How does going 100% EP increase capsize resistance? Not having a mast increases stability but that is not the same as capsize resistance. In monohulls it has been shown very clearly that while losing the mast increases AVS, total area under the stability curve & peak righting moment it makes the boat vastly more likely to capsize in a breaking wave. In a breaking wave roll moment of inertia is what resists capsize, not stability.
For multi-hulls the issue is more complex and I am not as up on the research. Also wind alone can capsize a multi whereas only a breaking wave can capsize a monohull.
__________________
Num Me Vexo?
For all of your celestial navigation questions: https://navlist.net/
A house is but a boat so poorly built and so firmly run aground no one would think to try and refloat it.
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23-10-2021, 16:45
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#6
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: La Ciudad de la Misión Didacus de Alcalá en Alta California, Virreinato de Nueva España
Boat: Cal 20
Posts: 21,621
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Re: 2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
Quote:
Originally Posted by chavodelocho
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Most of the boats on Plugboats require marina plug-in daily. As such they would not be appropriate for cruising.
Yes, there is a lot of cool technology coming to market. Some of it is not mature, some is not geared toward cruising, some is prohibitively expensive.
The basic issue remains, if you cruise long distance away from marinas, you will be speed or range limited using EP even if you mount as much solar, regen and wind generation as you can. EP is not likely to ever be more than auxiliary propulsion for a sailing vessel. The current dominant practice of motorsailing or just plain motoring sailing vessels using ICE can not be matched using EP and won't be matched for at least 20yr and then only if there are some big breakthru in the next 5yr. It takes a long time to commercialize breakthrus.
The only real cruising boat on Plugboats is the Arcona which uses folding props for regen and thus has marginal output, has little solar in evidence and probably has a generator to drive the EP in series when the batteries are depleted thus making is series hybrid. Series hybrid sacrifices significant efficiency compared to parallel hybrid.
I see significant potential for improvement using existing technology by maximizing and combining.
On a monohull sailboat I would maximize solar installation by covering the dodger, bimini and arch across the stern with solar panels.
I would install a Vertical Axis Wind Turbine (VAWT) on one or both sides of the mast above head height. Not as efficient as a HAWT but out of the way of solar and creates less of a safety problem.
I would install the smallest parallel hybrid power plant I could find, currently a Betamarine 20hp.
That would drive a CPP (Controllable Pitch Prop) with symmetrical blades which then could be efficiently used for regen.
For maximum range using EP I would have a 1.0-2.0KW outboard driving a 35" low speed prop.
I would optimize the hull for low drag. On the Cal 34 or 36 I want I would drop $1k to get a Schumacher rudder. I would epoxy on a pultruded T-section to the back of the keel then fair the keel to the tip of the T.
3D printing is good for things that can be made with isotropic materials. Plastic and metals are isotropic.
Printing a metal boat is a possibility.
I don't see printing a plastic boat. A plastic boat would need to be extra thick to make up for not having composite fibers in it, thus weighing more and having numerous knock-on effects.
Technology will progress. Ask this question again in 5yr and we'll see.
__________________
Num Me Vexo?
For all of your celestial navigation questions: https://navlist.net/
A house is but a boat so poorly built and so firmly run aground no one would think to try and refloat it.
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23-10-2021, 17:09
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2
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Re: 2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
Did none y'all who are pooh-poohing EP look at the Silent Yachts? Cruising at double-digits an hour overnight with all-electric everything right now. Herley, First Edition, and others all have EP boats in the water.
I'm assuming the Silent Yachts start at 55 feet and go up because they need the extra acreage for the panels (and also because the only people who can afford their seven-figure price tags don't want some "tiny" 44-footer). But with better panels and batteries, a 44-footer should provide plenty of space and economies of scale should bring those prices into six-figure territories.
And as for all of the what-I-can-only-assume-to-be-deliberate-crankypants-misinterpretation of my comments on "safety"... Howsabout no more winching, reefing, tripping over rigging (especially at night or in bad weather), unexpected fraying of rigging.
Losing a ton or two of boom, rigging, sails, etc to make the boat lighter. More interior space. Straight line "sailing" because you don't have to beat or tack into the wind.
No more burning diesel coming back from a run to Cabo. Slamming the throttle to (Marine) Ludicrous Speed to outrun a storm.
Come on, folks. I know sailors are a conservative bunch, but I didn't expect such blinkered, un-fun-ness. Ye got nae spirit of adventure!
(P.S. Adelie, I'll bet you a crisp five-dollar bill right here and now that we'll have 30% marine panels by 2030. There's just too much money on the line what with the new perovskite possibilities for the mega-corps not to make it happen.)
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23-10-2021, 18:27
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#8
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: La Ciudad de la Misión Didacus de Alcalá en Alta California, Virreinato de Nueva España
Boat: Cal 20
Posts: 21,621
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Re: 2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
Quote:
Originally Posted by robertc1964
Did none y'all who are pooh-poohing EP look at the Silent Yachts? Cruising at double-digits an hour overnight with all-electric everything right now. Herley, First Edition, and others all have EP boats in the water.
I'm assuming the Silent Yachts start at 55 feet and go up because they need the extra acreage for the panels (and also because the only people who can afford their seven-figure price tags don't want some "tiny" 44-footer). But with better panels and batteries, a 44-footer should provide plenty of space and economies of scale should bring those prices into six-figure territories.
And as for all of the what-I-can-only-assume-to-be-deliberate-crankypants-misinterpretation of my comments on "safety"... Howsabout no more winching, reefing, tripping over rigging (especially at night or in bad weather), unexpected fraying of rigging.
Losing a ton or two of boom, rigging, sails, etc to make the boat lighter. More interior space. Straight line "sailing" because you don't have to beat or tack into the wind.
No more burning diesel coming back from a run to Cabo. Slamming the throttle to (Marine) Ludicrous Speed to outrun a storm.
Come on, folks. I know sailors are a conservative bunch, but I didn't expect such blinkered, un-fun-ness. Ye got nae spirit of adventure!
(P.S. Adelie, I'll bet you a crisp five-dollar bill right here and now that we'll have 30% marine panels by 2030. There's just too much money on the line what with the new perovskite possibilities for the mega-corps not to make it happen.)
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A. I have spirit of adventure in abundance I would like to sail around the world on an EP sailboat.
What I don't have is a spirit of blowing €2M. Nor do I have the €2M to blow even if I did have the spirit for that.
B. The S55 has 10kW of panels per their website. That means they generate about 50kWhr/d/ There are 24hr in a day, so they have about 2kW continuous for all uses including propulsion. That means that using just solar power and minimizing house loads they have about 2hp to propel the vessel. It weighs 22t. Do you really believe that 2hp will allow this vessel slam "the throttle to (Marine) Ludicrous Speed to outrun a storm."
Yes the boat has a top speed of 19-20kt, but that's using solar, battery and the 150kW generator which is only availably for the E-Power+ model which undoubtedly requires paying a premium. Also they can maintain that speed for less than 1hr. They could probably maintain 14-15kt indefinitely on the ICE generator I couldn't afford the base model, I sure can't afford the premium model.
C. I did not misinterpret your comments on "safety", I responded to your claim of improved capsize resistance and made no comment about other safety issues. Nor was I "..deliberate-crankypants..." about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by robertc1964
..., less risk of capsizing,....
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Trying to put words in my figurative mouth.
D. A metal mast, boom, sails and rigging for a 55' boat might barely top 1ton, but no way are they going to get to 2 tons. The biggest mast section I could find a weight for is 13.4lb/ft, that's 945lb for a 70' mast. Carbon fiber and Dux rigging would significantly reduce this. Not saying that this is not a significant weight, but your sense of scale is off significantly.
E. Since the drive is electric, the boat is covered in solar and they have significant battery capacity they can cover most house loads and shift berths without starting the diesel. Heat and AC probably require the generator. They undoubtedly burn diesel almost all the time underway. Between the name and the image of the boat dripping with solar I think they have successfully green-washed their product.
F. No bet, we have cells over 47% now. That's not the issue, the issue it what will be economically produced at commercial scale in 2030.
Understand something; I am a serious proponent of EP. But overhyped claims for what is available now and for the foreseeable future will only lead to disappointed customers and slower adoption of the technology generally.
__________________
Num Me Vexo?
For all of your celestial navigation questions: https://navlist.net/
A house is but a boat so poorly built and so firmly run aground no one would think to try and refloat it.
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24-10-2021, 07:11
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 54
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Re: 2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
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24-10-2021, 07:25
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 54
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Re: 2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
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24-10-2021, 07:35
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#11
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: La Ciudad de la Misión Didacus de Alcalá en Alta California, Virreinato de Nueva España
Boat: Cal 20
Posts: 21,621
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Re: 2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
Quote:
Originally Posted by chavodelocho
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I didn’t say it couldn’t be done or that it wouldn’t be a good boat, I wrote that there would be a weight penalty.
That website indicates a 5,000lb weight for what looks like an open cockpit fishing vessel.
Whaler 250 Dauntless is similar with a 3390lb weight.
With engine, fuel & water it’s 4740lb, still lighter.
https://www.bostonwhaler.com/content...EC-SHEET-1.pdf
__________________
Num Me Vexo?
For all of your celestial navigation questions: https://navlist.net/
A house is but a boat so poorly built and so firmly run aground no one would think to try and refloat it.
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24-10-2021, 07:47
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#12
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: La Ciudad de la Misión Didacus de Alcalá en Alta California, Virreinato de Nueva España
Boat: Cal 20
Posts: 21,621
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Re: 2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
Quote:
Originally Posted by chavodelocho
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The Mako was launched in 2008 when commercial 3d printing was relatively new. It is indicated to be a composite construction. Composite 3D printing is currently in development but had not been rolled out at scale. 13yr ago they were probably still thinking about how to do it and doing small demo machines.
__________________
Num Me Vexo?
For all of your celestial navigation questions: https://navlist.net/
A house is but a boat so poorly built and so firmly run aground no one would think to try and refloat it.
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24-10-2021, 07:56
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 54
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Re: 2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
Not scale cos Producers not interested...(3d,IMHO,will make cheaper boats),affordable to many people and making people wonder what way of life we want(Spend,consum or life on the water with almost nothing...).IMHO,of course:-)...
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24-10-2021, 08:33
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 11,004
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Re: 2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
Quote:
Originally Posted by robertc1964
Wondering what CF's thoughts are on the future of all-solar-powered cats.
I figure by 2030 we'll have marine-grade solar panels at 30% efficiency (at least) and solid-state battery packs with at least 2x the energy density (poss. as high as 4x) of LiIon batteries with about a tenth the risk of fire, explosion, or toxic chemical leak.
At that point, more reasonably priced 40'-50' versions of the Silent Yacht-style all-solar catamarans should be more than possible.
So, at that point would you give up wind and switch to electrons?
You lose a lot of the romance and maybe emergency motive power if the solar systems/batteries go completely offline, but you gain greater speed, less risk of capsizing, something going wrong with the sails, riggings, etc.
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I would love that if you could price it the same and get the same performance.
I would love a lot of things. A warp drive, teleporter, etc....
Most of the advancements have been in economies of scale more so than technology. Usually it makes more sense to increase the panel area rather than go for high end panels. Lots of vapor ware coming out but the technology isn't changing much.
More efficiency is the way to go but 5ft diameter props are completely unrealistic. The cost of a pair of props would be more than the boat.
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25-10-2021, 14:21
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: UK
Boat: None yet
Posts: 6
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Re: 2030 All-Solar-Powered Cat
The main issue as far as I can see is the need for a massive HV Li-Ion battery and getting enough solar on the roof. HV batteries are maturing nicely but IMHO, the boat design needs to have a way to eject the battery overboard in seconds. Too many BEV's catching fire at the moment. Otherwise you need a Halon fire suppression system which has it's own set of issues.
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