Vendee Globe 2016 - Bon Voyage!

[Snowpetrel]

They did it, And Alex stretches his lead slightly, it will be interesting to see now how much his wounded starboard wing (DSS foil) hurts him.

Fortunately the winds are going to go more north than NE which would have given him no option but to drop the keel more vertical get enough lateral plane to sail to windward without the end tip.

[Polux]

Originally Posted by Snowpetrel

They did it, And Alex stretches his lead slightly, it will be interesting to see now how much his wounded starboard wing (DSS foil) hurts him.

Fortunately the winds are going to go more north than NE which would have given him no option but to drop the keel more vertical get enough lateral plane to sail to windward without the end tip.

The small one, the big High pressure center is ahead and it is a strange one, very long and relatively narrow.
Vendée Globe 2016-2017 Windyty Tracker
That's were I think the others are going to win a lot of miles. The one that will benefit more on the next hours will be Yann Eliès (6th) and we deserve some good look on the Vendee after all the bad luck he had on a past edition.

Have a look:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4oJkqC3g1Y

Vendee Globe competitor helps stricken Yann Elies - Telegraph

Yann is sailing now on Marc's boat, the one that had come to his rescue in 2008....not a boat from the new generation. He is making a great race.

[Snowpetrel]

My random thoughts, for what they are worth.

Looks like Alex is loosing 2 knots or more in these reaching conditions due to his broken wing. Got to be hard to take, but he is still in the race.

That mid latitude low brewing ahead is going to cause them some headaches, are they able to route above it? This would be long and involves crossing a band of light airs. (Red line, the high road) Or sneak below around the ice limit (yellow line, the low road), with the risk of being trapped by the band of strong easterlies moving southeast. (Blue area).. It will be interesting to see if ever the risk taker Alex splits from Armel here. There might be a third way through the middle at some point for them.

The following boats will have an easier time of this, as the low should have moved well south by the time they get to it. So they will probably take the high road and roll over the top of the low. But they have a long way to catch the HB and BP, and these boats are so fast in moderate conditions that the stronger winds behind won't help them all that much.

SA Interview with Mr Clean sounds like HB has no spare wing up his sleeve for repairs. But he had a lot of fun stirring the rumors

The red double arrow points to the "extras" button. Many thanks to Forss for the excellent tracker, now with new improved line of sight rings at low range..

I should mention that the image is of the +48 hours forcast, even though it shows todays time at the bottom. This is an artifact of my phones interface, you have to switch from landscape to normal to access different features. Also they won't be at the end of the lines I drew at +48, only about halfway along them or so. You can see the approx distance marked as +48.

[Snowpetrel]

https://m.mixcloud.com/sailinganarch...n-27-nov-2016/

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[Pelagic]

Thanks Snowpetrel for the great analysis.... This is my first time to follow it so closely, so I don't know the personalities as you do.

The one thing I have learned is that UFOs change things dramatically, but at this stage, would you call it a 5 or 6 boat race, or a 2 boat race?

[Polux]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Thanks Snowpetrel for the great analysis.... This is my first time to follow it so closely, so I don't know the personalities as you do.

The one thing I have learned is that UFOs change things dramatically, but at this stage, would you call it a 5 or 6 boat race, or a 2 boat race?

It always had been a 5 or 6 boat race, I mean regarding the ones with a real chance to win it, meaning a combination of a fast boat and a top sailor.

The other top sailors with older (10 year's old boats) and slower boats will only have a chance if something happens to the ones with the fastest boats ahead. The very good sailors (but not top) with 10 year boats will not stand a chance and average sailors with new boats even less.

It had been always like that on the vendee, at least since it become a professional race with many top sailors and several top boats racing. What that means is that there are a lot of incredibly good professional sailors doing this race and their diference is so small in performance that the boat's performance, even if not very different, count a lot, a bit like in F1, where they are all top drivers.

You have incredibly good sailors, like Jean Pierre Dick, Thomas Ruyant or Yann Elies than slightly handicapped by a slightly slower boat cannot just go as fast as the ones with newer or better re-made faster boats. Off course they only win when they arrive and something can always happen to the faster boats, in fact almost all sailboats have at least small problems on this race due to the extension and hardness of it, so you never know

If he has no problems I am quite sure that Armel will win this race. I believe he is just a bit better than the others (a very small bit) and he has a fast boat.

[Polux]

And since all that are interested by solo offshore racing seems to be looking at this thread (and they are not many on this forum) may I point your interest to another major event, even if a very lonely one:

Thomas Coville is trying to beat the absolute circumnavigation sail record sailing solo a maxi trimaran!!!!. So far so good, he is ahead the previous record (the red boat on the map), alone on the big Southern Ocean, a bit ahead of the Vendee Guys. Quite an adventure (average speed 30.2K) and a very lonely one.
Tableau de bord - Sodebo - Tour Du Monde 2016

A pity for many here that all is in French because that's pretty incredible and truly outstanding, with great stories:

https://www.sodebo.com/fr/voile/actu...thomas-coville

https://www.sodebo.com/fr/voile/actualites/zoom-sur

[Snowpetrel]

Definately still a six boat race, very interesting routing ahead with that low brewing, and the light airs around it. This is a real test for the 3 front runners. It will be facinating to see how it plays out, especially since these types of lows tend to be unpredictable.

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[sailon46]

My two pennies worth I think from the way things are going Armel is a favorite so far he has all the foils and he'll use them to his advantage all the way to the Horn. If Alex is in it still then foils no foils it will be a hell of a finish my pennies are still with Armel he has Bank Populaire boat and money riding on it🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷

[Polux]

“I'm not looking forward at the boats in front of me, and I don't look at the performances of the foiling boats because they are faster than me,” Eliès said.

“I was able to cross with a small front a few days ago, and now it's important for me to find the best route for this Vendee Globe. It's very hard to find the right sails for the wind and the waves, and to not break anything. I'm just trying to sail alone and do my own thing, and if I can do that perhaps I can finish in the top five or even in first place.”

The fact that Eliès is even competing in the Vendée Globe again is a show of his incredible strength and determination. In the 2008 edition Eliès broke his leg when a monster Southern Ocean wave smashed into the side of his boat 800nm from the coast of Australia. He spent two days stricken in his bunk unable to move in agony from the injury before being rescued by an Australian navy ship and whisked to hospital. Had he not received urgent treatment he would undoubtedly have lost his life, but the harrowing episode was not enough to prevent Eliès, one of France's most successful offshore racers, coming back for another tilt at the title.

That's the spirit and Yann is my favorite sailor, now that Riou is gone. Very little chances to win with an old boat but this guy is made of steel and a great, great sailor. Curiously he is racing with the boat that went to rescue him on the 2008 edition.

[DDabs]

Polux thanks for the link to Thomas Coville, that's some serious stuff. Is that a similar tri to what Francois Gabart races on?

[Bleemus]

Originally Posted by DDabs

Polux thanks for the link to Thomas Coville, that's some serious stuff. Is that a similar tri to what Francois Gabart races on?

Very. They are both late generation 100 footers.

[Polux]

Originally Posted by DDabs

Polux thanks for the link to Thomas Coville, that's some serious stuff. Is that a similar tri to what Francois Gabart races on?

Yes, even if the big "enemy" of Coville is another great sailor that has always managed to beat him, the one that holds the record, Joyon. Joyon is much older and truly an incredible sailor, as cool as someone can be. They are the two greatest solo long range multihull sailors and Gabart has yet to reach their levell, even if I believe he will.

Joyon is on the water too, he was trying to beat the absolute sail circumnavigation sail record (with crew) but give up the attempt just some days back when he was already on the middle of the Atlantic because the conditions were not good enough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tbhs0IOVcc

[Polux]

On the Vendee incredible response by Alex Thompson, that foil or no foil, does not give up and sails very near Armel. They are winning over everybody and it seemed to me that the others, some hundreds of miles back, had better conditions. Maybe they are pushing the boats too much. I hope not!!!

Really bad weather on the way in some 4 or 5 days. It is probable that it will block the way to the group where Rich Wilson sails. It will be interesting to see, not interesting to be there Winds over 40k, probably gusting 60k or more.

Vendée Globe 2016-2017 Windyty Tracker

[Bleemus]

Originally Posted by Bleemus

Very. They are both late generation 100 footers.

I should qualify this statement. Macif is a new boat while Sodebo is the old Geronimo which underwent a a massive refit.