True blue water boat extinction a fait accompli?

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Polux

The wind being of 30K does not mean that the front is moving on your direction at 30k or that you have to sail at 30k to avoid it. Nornally is much less than that.

If you look at the BoM link I posted above you will see several frontal systems poking along at 30 knots..that is the frontal system, not the wind itself. That is pretty normal in the 40's ... further south they can move quite a bit faster. Also not an uncommon speed in the middle latitudes.

The link to some interesting stuff about the Queen's Birthday storm is here http://www.bethandevans.com/pdf/qbs.pdf

[oregonian]

Jim Cate, I am not the one that called your thoughts BS. That was a different poster. That fact alone should indicate something to you and others.
Jim Cate says "... they did outrun the killer storm by virtue of their "very fast boat"..." What I am saying is that "Very Fast" is 200-210 per day, NOT 250. (Please remember this is a 50 footer)
You are correct Jim, speed is relevant to this thread. But, Speed, is 200-210 per day. Not 250. This information is what the newbies need to know. Not the gross exaggerations and unrealistic expectations of speed.

[Jim Cate]

For El Pinguino (I didn't hit the quote button)...

G'Day Frank, and thanks for that link. Seems to be the source of Oregonian's quote, and a good description of the storm system and the HOG's sailing plan. The 250 mile days were not necessary... 210's did the job pretty damn well for them.

I'll never forget sitting in Opua talking to so many of our friends who were getting trashed out there. The guys on Quartermaster (the boat that disappeared with all hands soon thereafter) were doing well, and giving good advice to the Mary T who was struggling with water incursion (Cheoy Lee Offshore 40, a"BWB" by many standards). The Mary T made it through, the Quartermaster, a Lidgard 40 IIRC, did not. We were pretty glad that, as usual, we were a bit behind schedule and missed that "good wx window".

One wonders if the more sophisticated models now in use would have picked up the signs in time to issue useful warnings?

It's interesting to look at the boats that were lost or abandoned. Not sure I remember them all, but there were, besides Quartermaster (not a BWB type at all) a Westsail 32, Sophia which is a timber Atkins design similar to the W32 but IIRC somewhat larger, a couple of cats (both of which were doing pretty well when abandoned), the Norseman 447 which is a fairly heavy fin and skeg type, and some others which I can't remember now. A pretty mixed bag, as was the fleet that did survive. Can't see that the BWB types did all that much better, but it would take better data than I have to really evaluate this fully. Likely it was more related to the exact position of the vessels relative to the storm path and the skill and luck of the crews than the type of vessel.

Cheers,

Jim

[Jim Cate]

Jim Cate, I am not the one that called your thoughts BS. That was a different poster. That fact alone should indicate something to you and others.

Sorry for the mis-attrubution. I'm not sure what that should indicate to me, though.

Jim

[Jon Eisberg]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

The link to some interesting stuff about the Queen's Birthday storm is here http://www.bethandevans.com/pdf/qbs.pdf

Hi Frank - that's an excerpt from one of Steve Dashew's books...

For those who may not be aware, both his MARINER'S WEATHER HANDBOOK, and SURVIVING THE STORM are now available as free downloads from SetSail...

Both are remarkable resources, roughly 1,200 pages in total, originally sold for about $70 each... Scroll down to the bottom of the linked page to click on the download for each:

SetSail » Blog Archive » Weather Forecasting, Storm Tactics & Successful Cruising – Plus An Offer You Can’t Refuse

[JPA Cate]

I've just read through El Pinguino's post of evans' link, and I just wanted to say, thanks, Frank. It does bring back memories.....and thoughts of how different various countries' 500 mb charts are.

Obviously, sailor beware, rules!

Ann

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Jon Eisberg

Hi Frank - that's an excerpt from one of Steve Dashew's books...

For those who may not be aware, both his MARINER'S WEATHER HANDBOOK, and SURVIVING THE STORM are now available as free downloads from SetSail...
.....

Thanks Jon, didn't realize that... have downloaded them and read a bit of the storm one this arvo.....ye gods.... I'm going to be screamin' in me dreams tonight.

I've led a sheltered life....

Ann, the 500mb charts are something i have always struggled a bit with... seems I should be brushing up on them. Its a shame the NOAA weather sats are on the way out.. I've always found them handy.

At the end of the day I would say that speed is good... if you can keep it up without busting stuff.

[Jon Eisberg]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Thanks Jon, didn't realize that... have downloaded them and read a bit of the storm one this arvo.....ye gods.... I'm going to be screamin' in me dreams tonight.

I've led a sheltered life....

Yeah, you and me both... :-)

There are some amazing accounts in SURVIVING THE STORM... One of the ones that impressed me the most, was that from the crew of BIN ROUGE, 31-foot lightweight racer by Bruce Farr, describing their experience during the infamous '98 Sydney-Hobart... It starts on page 265...

this guy has to rate as one of the alltime Masters of Aussie Understatement:

By 1700 we have wind in the range of 60 to 85 knots and seas from 50 to 100 feet (15 to 30 m). It is getting harder to handle the boat.

:-)

[Polux]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

If you look at the BoM link I posted above you will see several frontal systems poking along at 30 knots..that is the frontal system, not the wind itself. That is pretty normal in the 40's ... further south they can move quite a bit faster. Also not an uncommon speed in the middle latitudes.

The link to some interesting stuff about the Queen's Birthday storm is here http://www.bethandevans.com/pdf/qbs.pdf

I could find nothing regarding the speed movement of the weather system (storm) and that storm had sustained winds of 60K with 90K gusts. I found however this on your link:

"We’ve thought a lot about this and have drawn a few conclusions.
First, there is no substitute for boat speed, particularly the ability to keep the boat going fast and comfortably in heavy weather. We agree with you on the importance of waterline length and keep-ing the beam moderate, but I suspect we put a lot more emphasis on keel and righting moment, as without that it is hard to keep the boat fully powered up in sloppy conditions."

So fast and powerful boats are on their view the way to go.

Regarding the speed of weather systems it seems you think a system with 30k winds will move at 30k and that is not so:

"The speed at which high and low pressure systems move across the face of the Earth is highly variable and is mostly determined by the speed of the wind near the top of those systems (the Tropopause). This is the level at which the jet stream can form.

If there is a jet stream and it is particularly strong, it can drag weather systems at fairly high speeds, up to no more than about 50 miles per hour perhaps. "

David R. Cook
Meteorologist
Climate Research Section
Environmental Science Division
Argonne National Laboratory

So extreme weather systems can move up to 50 miles (43K) but here we are talking about extreme weather like hurricanes.

You say that it is normal to have them going at 30K on the roaring forties and over, may be true , but who is cruising there? Anyway it is not normal, the norm is the systems going slower than that, but it happens with regularity.

The truth is that at the latitudes normally cruising boats sail the weather systems, even the ones that give gales, travel at much slower speed and that speed is not directly connected with the wind speed.

[CHAZ]

Originally Posted by Polux

I could find nothing regarding the speed movement of the weather system (storm) and that storm had sustained winds of 60K with 90K gusts.

Ahoi Polux,
have a look again on the weather charts in El Pinguinos link and you will see an arrow on each front with speed and direction.

2 cents

Martin

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Polux

.....

Regarding the speed of weather systems it seems you think a system with 30k winds will move at 30k and that is not so:
......
So extreme weather systems can move up to 50 miles (43K) but here we are talking about extreme weather like hurricanes.

You say that it is normal to have them going at 30K on the roaring forties and over, may be true , but who is cruising there? Anyway it is not normal, the norm is the systems going slower than that, but it happens with regularity.

The truth is that at the latitudes normally cruising boats sail the weather systems, even the ones that give gales, travel at much slower speed and that speed is not directly connected with the wind speed.

Oh, give me strength.....

It is common for frontal systems passing south of the Australian continent to poke along at 30 knots.... regardless of the windspeed within the system...

See the picture.... see the front south of the Bight...with the arrow with 30kts attached to it...?... thats the speed at which the front is moving.... see the one south of NZ? its moving at 20 knots. These aren't hurricanes... they are standard issue fronts.... you need a lot of speed to get out of their way.

Next time there is a big weather system coming across the North Atlantic watch how quickly it gets to Europe.

'You say that it is normal to have them going at 30K on the roaring forties and over, may be true , but who is cruising there?'

Rather a lot of people really....... people in SE Australia esp Bass Strait, New Zealand, S America south of of Valpo/Rio de la Plata... you should see how fast the systems that jump the Andes move when they get to the Atlantic coast....this sort of frontal behaviour extends into the 30's

Given the choice I would have a fast boat rather than a slow boat but I would not want to be sailing many of today's designs offshore, mind you I am normally sailing short handed...ie only one watchkeeper.


Ooops ...just sorted the pic.....sorry about that.

[dannc]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Thanks Jon, didn't realize that... have downloaded them and read a bit of the storm one this arvo.....ye gods.... I'm going to be screamin' in me dreams tonight.

I've led a sheltered life....

Ann, the 500mb charts are something i have always struggled a bit with... seems I should be brushing up on them. Its a shame the NOAA weather sats are on the way out.. I've always found them handy.

At the end of the day I would say that speed is good... if you can keep it up without busting stuff.

A very good book on the 500MB chars is "Heavy Weather Avoidance and Route Design" by Ma Li Chen and Lee S. Chesneau. Lee is mentioned in at least one of the Dashew books as he is/was a weather router and has extensive weather forecasting experience. Looks like there is a Kindle version of the book now, http://www.amazon.com/Heavy-Weather-...ther+avoidance

I attended a couple of Lee's weather classes at TrawlerFest and bought his book there. The classes were only a few hours and I think he teaches a class that is normally 3-4 days. He really knows his stuff and he tried to cram as much info in a few hours as he could. Thankfully, I had read up on weather, I think I had finished both of the Dashew books before the class, which allowed me to sorta keep up with what Lee was saying in class.

Chen is a captain for one of the big shipping companies and knows his weather and weather routing.

Good book and explains things well. The book reads the way Lee talks. I would have to read a section maybe just a paragraph, put the books down and think through what I had read. There can be quite a bit of information in a few words. We really want to take one of Lee's full length classes.

Later,
Dan

[El Pinguino]

The winds associated with that weather map.... pleasant sailing breezes...

"Remainder west of cold front and trough [2]:
SW quarter winds tending W quarter within 120nm west of trough [2] and
clockwise within 240nm of low [1] and 120nm of low [2]. Wind speeds 25/33
knots. Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell.


SE Waters west of Tasmania...."Remainder:
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots within 240nm of low [1]. N quarter winds tending NW
quarter east of trough [1], NE quarter within 180nm south of trough [3].
Variable winds below 20 knots remainder between trough [1] and ridge [2] till
272100UTC. Wind speeds 15/25 knots, increasing to 20/30 knots after 280600UTC.
Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell."

In my experience the weather systems that come up from deep SW rather than across the bight carry the most wind and move the fastest... nasty buggers...

[barnakiel]

All the blah about roaring forties, just as if nobody were sailing the North Atlantic in the spring or summer.

And a quick check of wx data shows that fronts in this area can easily travel at 20 to 25 kts.

"And who is cruising there". Well, the ARC return fleet is. For one.

And then those carbon gizmo super (???) yachts where panels buckle and where windows pop out. And they are still labeled "out and out true blue water cruising yachts". Sure.

C'mon. Reality check. S(..)t weather happens and any boat of this size should take it in her stride.

The bad stuff is sea state and big waves doing damage. BUT this boat was not hit by the sea. She actually got a gust and collapsed. A carbon origami boat.

A Carbon Origami Yacht.

b.

[Don C L]

Originally Posted by dannc

A very good book on the 500MB chars is "Heavy Weather Avoidance and Route Design" by Ma Li Chen and Lee S. Chesneau. Lee is mentioned in at least one of the Dashew books as he is/was a weather router and has extensive weather forecasting experience. Looks like there is a Kindle version of the book now, Amazon.com: Heavy Weather Avoidance and Route Design eBook: Ma-Li Chen : Kindle Store

I attended a couple of Lee's weather classes at TrawlerFest and bought his book there. The classes were only a few hours and I think he teaches a class that is normally 3-4 days. He really knows his stuff and he tried to cram as much info in a few hours as he could. Thankfully, I had read up on weather, I think I had finished both of the Dashew books before the class, which allowed me to sorta keep up with what Lee was saying in class.

Chen is a captain for one of the big shipping companies and knows his weather and weather routing.

Good book and explains things well. The book reads the way Lee talks. I would have to read a section maybe just a paragraph, put the books down and think through what I had read. There can be quite a bit of information in a few words. We really want to take one of Lee's full length classes.

Later,
Dan

Thank you for this info and link! This is excellent info and a perfect example of why CF can be great.