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Old 07-02-2023, 10:32   #106
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

Found on the GGR Site:

Abhilash and Kirsten are now in the thick of the low pressure for the next 36 hours with winds gusting to 60 knots. Kirsten who broke one of her two spinnakers poles last week folded and stowed her fore twin sails, a truly physical feat alone on board in rough seas. She and Abhilash have prepared trainers and chains. The tracker is updated every hour.

Abhilash and Kirsten have prepared well for this storm. Here is the current forecast forwarded to both. Kirsten being a little further north has remarkably better outlook. Forecast Code is: date, time UTC or Z, wind direction and strength, gusts, sea height and swell direction, barometric pressure.

KIRSTEN: F7 1200Z N26 G35 S3.7SW B1000 1800Z NW38 G53 S5.2NW B 992 2400Z W32 G43 S5.8W B992 F8 0600Z W33 G46 S6.8W B996 1200Z W33 G46 S7.2W B997 1800Z W26 G38 S6.7W B999 Good luck!

ABHILASH: 7F 1200Z N39 G55 S5.7NW B982 1800Z W37 G55 S5.7SW B984 2400Z W39 G55 S8SW B988 8F 0600 W35 G49 S8.1SW B992 1200Z W28 G43 S7.7SW B996 1800Z W24 G35 S7.1SW B999 Good luck!

She and Abhilash have prepared trainers and chains.

Is that drogue in another language? (or another way of putting it?)
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Old 07-02-2023, 12:54   #107
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

Yes I believe they mean warps and chains or somesuch.

Word on the street is that Abhilash had a knockdown just after the front went through.

Satpix at 7th1800Z from Directemar.
In my experience the solid looking cloud seen ahead of the front indicates steady winds, the fluffy rather friendly looking little clouds behind the front give you squally shitty nasty winds.
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Old 07-02-2023, 13:14   #108
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

Warps, chains, 'drag devices'.....
Those are the winds and sea conditions that the JSD was invented for.

From what I can tell from the Tracker and Windy.ty, 'so far, so good'....

The problem is with violent cross-seas, not wind, and that's the regime that's coming Abhilash's way over the next 12-15 hours, until the winds and seas start to ease. Kirsten may just have it a little bit easier.

IMHO they did exactly right in heading NE in the way that they did - and have got themselves just far enough north to stay out of the worst of it. Insh'allah....

There is ALWAYS the possibility of a tumbling, jetting, big rogue.... the sort of thing that hit Susie Goodall.

It'll be a long night....
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Old 07-02-2023, 14:59   #109
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

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Originally Posted by thomm225 View Post
The stronger winds should be about to get to her soon but she is down to one pole so can’t run twin headsails efficiently.

She may not need to in the strong winds coming and maybe can jury something in the mean time or sail on the wind more after rounding Cape Horn
I think poled out headsails would be the thing furthest from her mind just now. A 50 sq ft storm jib would see you over canvased but probably needed to keep the head down wind and sea and stop her broaching.

Latest Directemar Wx

'WEATHER BULLETIN AND SEA STATE ZONE X VALID 071900/080700 UTC.
1.-SEVERE WEATHER WARNING:

SOUTHWEST AREA (LAT 45 TO 60 DGS SOUTH AND LONG 95 TO 120 DGS WEST):
WIND W/SW 30/40 KT GUST 50/60 KT, SEA STATE ROUGH TO HIGH (5.0/8.0 M), VIS POOR, PRECIPITATION.

SOUTHEAST AREA (LAT 45 TO 60 DGS SOUTH AND LONG 81 TO 95 DGS WEST):
WIND N/NW 30/40 KT GUST 50/60 KT, SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO HIGH (5.0/8.0 M), VIS POOR, PRECIPITATION.

Still gusting to 60k after the passage of front - nasty.
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Old 07-02-2023, 15:43   #110
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

STORM ALERT! Golden Globe Race leaders face a big one

https://goldengloberace.com/storm-al...ace-a-big-one/
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Old 07-02-2023, 17:15   #111
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

Judging by her speed for the last 5-6 hours of only a little over 4 -5 knots in big winds, I'm thinking Kirsten N. may already have a Warp deployed.

Sounds like a good strategy to me.

Survive the storm, then race afterward
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Old 07-02-2023, 17:18   #112
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

After all these miles/time, there could be a "photo finish" in getting around the Horn.
From "Live track", Kirsten is ~100 miles ahead, but going slower.
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Old 07-02-2023, 17:20   #113
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

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After all these miles/time, there could be a "photo finish" in getting around the Horn.
From "Live track", Kirsten is ~100 miles ahead, but going slower.
Yes but she is never this much slower which is why I'm thinking she is being smart and cautious as the storm goes through.

(and possibly has a Warp deployed or very little sail up as night comes on and the rest of the storm passes over)

Too many of these boats have been put out of the race in both GGR's due to heavy weather

.................................................. .................................................

So back to cruising for a minute.

I have noticed on CF that many sailors worry over their light air sails. To me that is a waste of time.

The worry should be over your heavy air sails.

My new jib is smaller than my last one as is the new main sail I will be ordering which will be 9" longer in the luff but 1 foot shorter in the foot.

Plus it will have 3 sets of reef points.

Because I know what it is like to have to much sail up but at the same time not wanting to be going too slow

When I was in Florida though it was pretty easy to predict the weather as the forecast was usually pretty close, but up here a 20 knot forecast can go to 35 knots quite easily.

The same or more most probably in the higher middle to higher latitudes
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Old 07-02-2023, 18:06   #114
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

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Originally Posted by thomm225 View Post
Yes but she is never this much slower which is why I'm thinking she is being smart and cautious as the storm goes through.

(and possibly has a Warp deployed or very little sail up as night comes on and the rest of the storm passes over)

Too many of these boats have been put out of the race in both GGR's due to heavy weather

.................................................. .................................................

So back to cruising for a minute.

I have noticed on CF that many sailors worry over their light air sails. To me that is a waste of time.

The worry should be over your heavy air sails.

My new jib is smaller than my last one as is the new main sail I will be ordering which will be 9" longer in the luff but 1 foot shorter in the foot.

Plus it will have 3 sets of reef points.

Because I know what it is like to have to much sail up but at the same time not wanting to be going too slow

When I was in Florida though it was pretty easy to predict the weather as the forecast was usually pretty close, but up here a 20 knot forecast can go to 35 knots quite easily.

The same or more most probably in the higher middle to higher latitudes


Nope- unless you are doing off grid high latitude stuff, definitely focus on light air sails. There’s a stat out there that >90% of cruising is in light air. Sure, have a gale setup but no need to obsess unless you plan on rounding Cape Horn
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Old 07-02-2023, 18:17   #115
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

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Nope- unless you are doing off grid high latitude stuff, definitely focus on light air sails. There’s a stat out there that >90% of cruising is in light air. Sure, have a gale setup but no need to obsess unless you plan on rounding Cape Horn
Maybe for you fair weather sailors, but I try and time my sails with the passing fronts.

Sometimes I miss judge their strength though based on inaccurate forecasts

I get home faster that way.

And it's downwind for me here in Virginia Beach. I'm usually coming back from places like Onancock on the Eastern Shore, Or Mobjack Bay, or Kiptopeke.

Gusting to 29 in the first one and around mid 30's in the second. wrong sail up in second video but it had laid down quite a bit by the time I could record that video. Dodger frame had already been broken.

Plus boat keep trying to round up into the wind

Boat was close to being over driven so I'm glad it laid down a bit

It was an exciting ride though and I crossed the 20 mile low bay in about 3 hours. Theoretical boat speed for my boat is 5.97 knots.

Last two from Onancock 2014. I didn't know about lowering sail then. With beach cats we never reefed etc

I was about to blow chunks the whole time in the 2014 sail until I remembered the chewable Dramamine I had within reach of the cockpit down below. But that was 4 hours in to the cruise







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Old 07-02-2023, 18:24   #116
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

The reason to have good light air sails (in addition to being equipped to handle heavy air when it happens) is so you don't have to wait for a front to make decent speed. The less wind you need to sail decently, the more flexibility you have in traveling.
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Old 08-02-2023, 04:11   #117
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

looks like she and they would have been better off if they had taken their licks and kept moving east. the weather is better there.
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Old 08-02-2023, 04:34   #118
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

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The reason to have good light air sails (in addition to being equipped to handle heavy air when it happens) is so you don't have to wait for a front to make decent speed. The less wind you need to sail decently, the more flexibility you have in traveling.
Light air sails are simply not a necessity though.

My light air sails will now be my old blown out main and old jib.

I used to win races against boats with brand new sails in light air by using old blown out sails and flexible battens.

Good heavy air sails are the most important.

Worse case in light air is you go slow.

In heavy air, totally different story with the wrong sail or you have less options.
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Old 08-02-2023, 04:39   #119
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

Abhilash had another knockdown during the night but no damage except to his storm jib. (rip)

Actually it was : "The only notable damage to the boat is a torn heavy reefed staysail."

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Old 08-02-2023, 05:54   #120
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Re: Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

Quote:
Originally Posted by thomm225 View Post
Maybe for you fair weather sailors, but I try and time my sails with the passing fronts.

Sometimes I miss judge their strength though based on inaccurate forecasts

I get home faster that way.

And it's downwind for me here in Virginia Beach. I'm usually coming back from places like Onancock on the Eastern Shore, Or Mobjack Bay, or Kiptopeke.

Gusting to 29 in the first one and around mid 30's in the second. wrong sail up in second video but it had laid down quite a bit by the time I could record that video. Dodger frame had already been broken.

Plus boat keep trying to round up into the wind

Boat was close to being over driven so I'm glad it laid down a bit

It was an exciting ride though and I crossed the 20 mile low bay in about 3 hours. Theoretical boat speed for my boat is 5.97 knots.

Last two from Onancock 2014. I didn't know about lowering sail then. With beach cats we never reefed etc

I was about to blow chunks the whole time in the 2014 sail until I remembered the chewable Dramamine I had within reach of the cockpit down below. But that was 4 hours in to the cruise









See Thomm- you actually have no idea. “You fair weather sailors” could be taken as a slight, but actually is good seamanship on any body of water. And, being able to make good progress in light/moderate air is the mainstay of passage making.

For example, once a front passes with your 30 knots for 6-12 hours, what do you do for the upcoming days in light air? Unless you are a planing Volvo type boat you can’t stay with a front for a whole passage.

We’ve all tolerated your Chesapeake bay videos for years. They show chop and breeze. Very different than what you find off the coast especially with a strong frontal passage. I love the Bay, and have passed through your part many times. But please do some real offshore passages before you claim expertise on what sail plan needed.
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